NHL to Seattle Volume XIV - Seattle sells 26,000 season ticket deposits in 2 hours

[BattleBorn]

I think the site says 10k. We been waiting for NHL hockey for a very very long time. If there was any concerns about the arena and among other things i don't think the NHL would be going on a fast timeline here, they probably would have waited to start the process in June of 2018 then grant the team half a year to a year later if that was that much of a concern.

The Expansion draft rules for Seattle already is publicly known and we have yet to even been granted a team yet.

The fast timeline shows how much the league trust Leiweke and OVG when it comes to arenas. They know its going to get done baring some unforeseen issue that stops it dead in the tracks (very very slim chance that happens).

Yeah, the league is requiring 10,000, I was saying if they got 14,000 or so, then it's the same situation. You've got the STH on the hook. It's a good thing. The expansion draft rules are known because they're the same as Las Vegas', it's not like they announced them. They just announced they'd be the same ones as there were less than a year ago.

I hope I'm wrong, I'd like to get a Seattle sweater ASAP and it's obvious the mindset here is that it's happening this summer, so I'll stop being a wet blanket.

 

[gstommylee]

Yeah, the league is requiring 10,000, I was saying if they got 14,000 or so, then it's the same situation. You've got the STH on the hook. It's a good thing. The expansion draft rules are known because they're the same as Las Vegas', it's not like they announced them. They just announced they'd be the same ones as there were less than a year ago.

I hope I'm wrong, I'd like to get a Seattle sweater ASAP and it's obvious the mindset here is that it's happening this summer, so I'll stop being a wet blanket.

Even the NHL group themselves is somewhat expect a 2018 announcement. From the website FAQ

What's the price of Season tickets? If Seattle is awarded an NHL franchise, we expect to announce ticket prices in earily 2019.

If the team hasn't been officially awarded by the time 2019 hits, no way they'll be announcing season ticket prices at that time.

 

[Mightygoose]

A 10K goal is very doable and should be done in short order.

I'm looking at the NHL Seattle site but don't see the goal listed. Is there a link that shows it or is internal for now?

Re: formal announcement, I've been leaning towards June but if the ST drive is successful as it should be then it becomes the worst kept secret and can see the rational in announcing it earlier.

 

[BattleBorn]

Even the NHL group themselves is somewhat expect a 2018 announcement. From the website FAQ

What's the price of Season tickets? If Seattle is awarded an NHL franchise, we expect to announce ticket prices in earily 2019.

If the team hasn't been officially awarded by the time 2019 hits, no way they'll be announcing season ticket prices at that time.

Yeah, we had that in Las Vegas too. The whole thing started off with the team dropping the puck in the 16-17 season, that changed pretty quickly, though it looks like the Seattle group is avoiding too many commitments like that. Also, we had season ticket pricing announced at the beginning of the drive, so I wouldn't put too much stock in that.

Like I said, there's a template and it appears they're following it, for good and bad, fans and owners.

 

[MNNumbers]

How many links do you want? I'll start posting them for you.

Also, you have no idea the number of phone calls, emails, and messages I had from people concerned about not hearing anything during the month of February.

Seems like you have the right process in mind, that is far from the majority.

If people are actually anxious about not hearing anything, then they need to inform themselves.

Look, it's simple.....It doesn't matter when the team is formally announced.

As soon as anything real happens at the building site, it's a for sure situation. No one is going to build that thing without being sure a team is coming. NHL has been very positive about the whole thing. The only thing that stops it is if the building doesn't happen because of bureaucratic delays. I think that has a 0.0001% chance of happening.

You can't play until the construction is done. Just educate people.

 

[gstommylee]

Yeah, we had that in Las Vegas too. The whole thing started off with the team dropping the puck in the 16-17 season, that changed pretty quickly, though it looks like the Seattle group is avoiding too many commitments like that. Also, we had season ticket pricing announced at the beginning of the drive, so I wouldn't put too much stock in that.

Like I said, there's a template and it appears they're following it, for good and bad, fans and owners.

The 16-17 was something the Vegas group decided early on and was under the assumption that Vegas would been awarded in fall of 2015 not June of 2016.

The two timelines aren't even comparable.

 

[DougMellon]

NHL has been very positive about the whole thing.

That is an understatement

You can't play until the construction is done. Just educate people.

My exact reason for stating that managing expectations is key.

 

[gstommylee]

If people are actually anxious about not hearing anything, then they need to inform themselves.

Look, it's simple.....It doesn't matter when the team is formally announced.

As soon as anything real happens at the building site, it's a for sure situation. No one is going to build that thing without being sure a team is coming. NHL has been very positive about the whole thing. The only thing that stops it is if the building doesn't happen because of bureaucratic delays. I think that has a 0.0001% chance of happening.

You can't play until the construction is done. Just educate people.

OVG said from the start that they are going to build the arena regardless if the NHL and or the NBA shows up. They were willing to built it on spec. They also said they weren't going to guarantee any teams. It was obvious NHL was gonna come first we just didn't know how soon that'll be.

We had a 7-1 vote on the MOU. The only no vote was on a technicality and rule say you are either yes or no you can't abstain. Everything has lined up to get this one done. All the business, special interest groups supports it. I wouldn't worry about political red tape delays.

 

[BattleBorn]

The 16-17 was something the Vegas group decided early on and was under the assumption that Vegas would been awarded in fall of 2015 not June of 2016.

The two timelines aren't even comparable.

Okay, I'm not here to tell anyone how to speculate differently, just offering my experience and opinions. I hope it happens this summer, and I hope the ticket drive does well. I'll collect some info on the LV ticket drive timeline for Vegas/Seattle comparisons once it gets going.

 

[DougMellon]

Okay, I'm not here to tell anyone how to speculate differently, just offering my experience and opinions. I hope it happens this summer, and I hope the ticket drive does well. I'll collect some info on the LV ticket drive timeline for Vegas/Seattle comparisons once it gets going.

I spoke with some members of the Vegas FO a while back when one of my writers was originally digging through that data. Even they cautioned making any comparisons. This process has been completely different and it will continue to do so. With that said, I am interested to see what you dig up. I have .pdfs of contracts, prices, etc if you are interested in them — if you don't already have the info that is (looks like you are in Las Vegas).

You are going to see comparisons continued to be made, in fact I believe Chris tweeted it out as soon as the ticket drive was launched, but most of it is to keep the wheels turning as there is going to be dead air for much of this process.

OVG and the marketing team they have hired are beginning to push out their campaign. This group knows what they are doing and we have some exciting times ahead.

Again, I enjoy this discussion. Glad we can do it in a civil manner.

 

[gstommylee]

Just to mention seattle is the can't do city that's basically known for let's study it to death. This whole project is the first i ever seen from Seattle where there is a huge push to actually get it done and only have a year for SEPA review. Most major projects at least this size or bigger takes longer for the environmental review.

 

[BattleBorn]

I spoke with some members of the Vegas FO a while back when one of my writers was originally digging through that data. Even they cautioned making any comparisons. This process has been completely different and it will continue to do so. With that said, I am interested to see what you dig up. I have .pdfs of contracts, prices, etc if you are interested in them — if you don't already have the info that is (looks like you are in Las Vegas).

I enjoy the discussion.

Here's the way I'm looking at it, without even comparing the two, since I also enjoy the discussion. It's working backwards from the day the puck first drops in Seattle. Let's call it a preseason game against the Canucks on 09/26/2020 .

We're already a week ahead of the first day the Seattle Arena can be ready to play (October 2020 is their announced date, you might have another) if everything goes to their plan. If they add the little part off the side of the roof without issue, if they don't discover some fossil from a previously unknown rodent species under the outbuildings they're taking down, they're already playing somewhere else if everything goes perfectly with renovation. Things generally don't go perfectly and there's always some cognitive bias leading to a earlier completion date than is probably feasible anyway.

What I'm trying to say is that if you announce a team this summer that starts play in October 2020, a few weeks after the arena opens, and something happens that makes it so the arena can't open on time sometime within that two years, you're not delaying an expansion announcement, you're delaying an entire actual team, or you're having the team play in some small arena for its first few months in a new city. Game day experience? Trash. Convenience for fans? Trashed. Continuity? Trashed.

Why would you do that when you could just delay the expansion announcement to next summer when the arena will be partially/mostly renovated and you'll have a lot firmer grasp on the timeline. If the October 2020 looks real or that it's going to be done earlier, you say you've got a team for 2020-2021 in summer 2019 and the team's got their year to get things together. If the arena's kind of screwed up, you announce it next summer at the same time you would have anyway, except you say you're starting in 2021-2022.

It makes a whole lot more sense to me to announce it then versus announcing it this summer and hoping everything goes right while simultaneously giving an extra year's worth of advantage to a team I'm sure many/most fans will already think is getting too much. I don't imagine the owners/governors are super interested in giving additional advantages to Seattle either, especially while the last expansion is sitting on top of its division by 10 points with only a year to prep.

 

[gstommylee]

http://bottomline.seattle.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/REVISED-Exhibit-E-Schedule.pdf

A rough timeline for the arena. No idea if it has been updated or not since then.

 

[MNNumbers]

http://bottomline.seattle.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/REVISED-Exhibit-E-Schedule.pdf

A rough timeline for the arena. No idea if it has been updated or not since then.

I probably shouldn't even be in here because I really don't care when the team is announced. As far as I am concerned, it's already announced. The question is when does it start playing.....

And, that timeline has 9 weeks of 'project completion' happening after the start of the 20-21 season. Now, granted, that works. You can finish the details in the midst of 12 games or so on the schedule. You could.

And, I know there are lots of rabid Seattle fans - Welcome to the Board, Doug, btw. Also tommy, nwhockeyfan and many others. But, I think I am with BB here, to some extent. There are definitely possibilities of delay happening yet. And, it wouldn't take much to make that whole timeline end up 3 months later, and then what???

Something as simple as one month strike by a labor union messes up the whole first year.

I would think that patience would be a virtue here.

 

[gstommylee]

I probably shouldn't even be in here because I really don't care when the team is announced. As far as I am concerned, it's already announced. The question is when does it start playing.....

And, that timeline has 9 weeks of 'project completion' happening after the start of the 20-21 season. Now, granted, that works. You can finish the details in the midst of 12 games or so on the schedule. You could.

And, I know there are lots of rabid Seattle fans - Welcome to the Board, Doug, btw. Also tommy, nwhockeyfan and many others. But, I think I am with BB here, to some extent. There are definitely possibilities of delay happening yet. And, it wouldn't take much to make that whole timeline end up 3 months later, and then what???

Something as simple as one month strike by a labor union messes up the whole first year.

I would think that patience would be a virtue here.

I wouldn't worry about that Construction actually finishes based on that timeline in September.

I doubt there will be any labor union strike issues. If NHL delays it to 2021-22 and there a lockout between NHL and NHLPA you risk alienating the fans by making them wait a year to a year and half to even 2 years in additional. Not a good idea.

 

[DougMellon]

We're already a week ahead of the first day the Seattle Arena can be ready to play (October 2020 is their announced date, you might have another) if everything goes to their plan.

Concerning that aspect, I know nothing more than what is made available to the public at this point, and I say that with 100% honesty. Major construction is expected to be completed on September 14th according to the MOU (in my eyes, having a hard date here is crazy and I would take it with a grain of salt). There is a design open house next month and two members of my team will be there so if you are interested in what they say, I'll let you know.

What I'm trying to say is that if you announce a team this summer that starts play in October 2020, a few weeks after the arena opens, and something happens that makes it so the arena can't open on time sometime within that two years, you're not delaying an expansion announcement, you're delaying an entire actual team, or you're having the team play in some small arena for its first few months in a new city. Game day experience? Trash. Convenience for fans? Trashed. Continuity? Trashed.

100% agree that there is no way the league would pull for playing in a temporary facility.. we can all just remove that from the equation. In terms of delaying the team, Gary Bettman loves contingency and IF a team is announced sooner rather than later, I would fully expect there to be circumstances attached.

Your arguments are very logical and I agree with most of your points, but from what I'm gathering, I wouldn't be shocked if the league continues to expedite this process. With that said, I am so far moved from the situation and SonicsRising is in no way affiliated with OVG (although some like to make that accusation) that I could be very far off course.

It's nice to be able to talk about this process away from writing an article which gets dissected by every reader in the comments section.

EDIT: also, important to note that OVG has TWO NHL arenas scheduled to open their doors in 2020.

 

[MNNumbers]

I wouldn't worry about that Construction actually finishes based on that timeline in September.

I doubt there will be any labor union strike issues. If NHL delays it to 2021-22 and there a lockout between NHL and NHLPA you risk alienating the fans by making them wait a year to a year and half to even 2 years in additional. Not a good idea.

Tommy,

If you don't mind my saying so.....This whole discussion seems very much a reflection of your total approach to the entire sequence of events in Seattle. You are supremely confident in your own conclusions to most questions. I admire confidence.

I'm much more cautious. For example,
I haven't seen too many construction projects come in on time and on budget.
This one in particular has the possibility, yet of delays of lawsuits because of community, traffic issues, environment issues, or even some PETA issue. At some point, the ground will break, and most of those will be out of the way. But, they are not done yet, at this time.

Also, If I were a fan, and got one playing season, and then a lockout, that would be bad, as well. So, labor relations of that type are going to be a cloud no matter what.

Look, I'm not saying it SHOULD be delayed. I'm just offering explanation of why, if it happens that way.

 

[DougMellon]

Also, If I were a fan, and got one playing season, and then a lockout, that would be bad, as well. So, labor relations of that type are going to be a cloud no matter what.

A lockout would occur during their expected inaugural season of 2020.

 

[BattleBorn]

Concerning that aspect, I know nothing more than what is made available to the public at this point, and I say that with 100% honesty. Major construction is expected to be completed on September 14th according to the MOU (in my eyes, having a hard date here is crazy and I would take it with a grain of salt). There is a design open house next month and two members of my team will be there so if you are interested in what they say, I'll let you know.



100% agree that there is no way the league would pull for playing in a temporary facility.. we can all just remove that from the equation. In terms of delaying the team, Gary Bettman loves contingency and IF a team is announced sooner rather than later, I would fully expect there to be circumstances attached.

Your arguments are very logical and I agree with most of your points, but from what I'm gathering, I wouldn't be shocked if the league continues to expedite this process. With that said, I am so far moved from the situation and SonicsRising is in no way affiliated with OVG (although some like to make that accusation) that I could be very far off course.

It's nice to be able to talk about this process away from writing an article which gets dissected by every reader in the comments section.

EDIT: also, important to note that OVG has TWO NHL arenas scheduled to open their doors in 2020.

I just don't see the reason to push the announcement. Even if the Sonics return the same year, it's not that huge a deal if you've got $500-$1000 from 14,000 people that will purchase season tickets. The year isn't going to make a difference in that way, IMO.

Plus, it might not go as quickly with the season ticket drive as is expected. There's definitely things working against Seattle if there's going to be a speed contest to 10,000 deposits or above. Winnipeg's drive is an outlier against everyone, and Las Vegas' drive is an outlier among American team expansions. Seattle is doing it without full pricing at deposit time, with higher monetary deposits, and in a metro area with less hockey fans than Las Vegas. It might take a little time to get where they want it to go.

Lots more money there though, so perhaps it all evens out.

 

[gstommylee]

We just don't know until demolish/construction actually starts on what the timeline will be. They could finish ahead of schedule as far as we know.

 

[gstommylee]

Tommy,

If you don't mind my saying so.....This whole discussion seems very much a reflection of your total approach to the entire sequence of events in Seattle. You are supremely confident in your own conclusions to most questions. I admire confidence.

I'm much more cautious. For example,
I haven't seen too many construction projects come in on time and on budget.
This one in particular has the possibility, yet of delays of lawsuits because of community, traffic issues, environment issues, or even some PETA issue. At some point, the ground will break, and most of those will be out of the way. But, they are not done yet, at this time.

Also, If I were a fan, and got one playing season, and then a lockout, that would be bad, as well. So, labor relations of that type are going to be a cloud no matter what.

Look, I'm not saying it SHOULD be delayed. I'm just offering explanation of why, if it happens that way.

Environmental review is scheduled to be done end of august. This is already on an advance time line then what is typical by city of Seattle. And any potential special interest groups that would normal sue over this sort of stuff happens to be on board with the project.

Most of the issue that ended causing Sodo arena to stall (special interest groups fighting against) to where it just isn't going to happen was dealt with before the OVG proposal was revealed.

Hard to say if Hansen and his lawyer will challenge it environmentally but that would not be politically smart if he wants to convince SCC to change their minds on the street vacation aka One arena for NHL one arena for NBA.

Basically SCC and Mayor of Seattle are going to use sodo arena as leverage to make sure Leiweke get the NBA secured in the next several years.

 

[DougMellon]

I just don't see the reason to push the announcement.

I 100% agree with this. Again, just going off information I am taking in.

Plus, it might not go as quickly with the season ticket drive as is expected. There's definitely things working against Seattle if there's going to be a speed contest to 10,000 deposits or above. Winnipeg's drive is an outlier against everyone, and Las Vegas' drive is an outlier among American team expansions. Seattle is doing it without full pricing at deposit time, with higher monetary deposits, and in a metro area with less hockey fans than Las Vegas. It might take a little time to get where they want it to go.

Seattle has a goal of 10,000 tickets. The vast majority of the packages purchased will feature more than one ticket.

10,000 / 2 = 5,000 packages.
10,000 / 3 = 3,333 packages (roughly).

I have no doubts in my mind that such a powerful group ran by Tim Leiweke will blow the Vegas timeline out of the water. I wouldn't be shocked if they quickly grab 3-4,000 deposits in a city featuring Microsoft, Amazon, Starbucks, etc. While Seattle is arguably a "non-traditional market", their population is filled with individuals from other parts of the country (and world) who are potentially already hockey fans.

 

[BattleBorn]

I 100% agree with this. Again, just going off information I am taking in.



Seattle has a goal of 10,000 tickets. The vast majority of the packages purchased will feature more than one ticket.

10,000 / 2 = 5,000 packages.
10,000 / 3 = 3,333 packages (roughly).

I have no doubts in my mind that such a powerful group ran by Tim Leiweke will blow the Vegas timeline out of the water. I wouldn't be shocked if they quickly grab 3-4,000 deposits in a city featuring Microsoft, Amazon, Starbucks, etc.

If they're doing it the same way as here, and it's been stated by you and others that they're not so take it for what it's worth, they're going to keep it closed to corporate sales until 10,000. I'm sure some of their employees will put down deposits though, for sure. Especially if they're making Seattle money.

 

[DougMellon]

If they're doing it the same way as here, and it's been stated by you and others that they're not so take it for what it's worth, they're going to keep it closed to corporate sales until 10,000. I'm sure some of their employees will put down deposits though, for sure. Especially if they're making Seattle money.

I'm not talking corporate sales.

 

[gstommylee]

I 100% agree with this. Again, just going off information I am taking in.



Seattle has a goal of 10,000 tickets. The vast majority of the packages purchased will feature more than one ticket.

10,000 / 2 = 5,000 packages.
10,000 / 3 = 3,333 packages (roughly).

I have no doubts in my mind that such a powerful group ran by Tim Leiweke will blow the Vegas timeline out of the water. I wouldn't be shocked if they quickly grab 3-4,000 deposits in a city featuring Microsoft, Amazon, Starbucks, etc.

Google has an office too I believe.

There is really a huge difference between Seattle and Vegas in terms of cooperate companies. Leiweke knows how to make sale pitches of his and OVG's plans. We couldn't have a better person for the job.