NHL Playoff Odds

[TheGoodShepard1]

Do not want San Jose

I’m in the same boat; they look like they’ve put it all together. It’s preferable to Nashville, but it’s Vegas or bust

 

[Arthuros]

I’m in the same boat; they look like they’ve put it all together. It’s preferable to Nashville, but it’s Vegas or bust

I would prefer the Kings. I'm not looking forward to being on the receiving end of Vegas's Cinderella story.

 

[Arthuros]

I'm always amused by clinching scenarios when it comes down to the last few days, especially because now you can map out fun scenarios by hand.

San Jose, sitting at 2nd place in the Pacific with 98 points and 39 ROWs, can fall out of the playoff picture completely if:
- They lose all 3 remaining games, with at most 1 OT/SO loss
- Anaheim goes 2-0-1, putting them at 100
- Colorado wins out their 3 games, putting them at 99
- St. Louis goes at worst 3-0-1, putting them at 99
- LA goes at worst 2-0-1, putting them at 99
- Minnesota gets at least 3 points out of the next 4 games, putting them at 99

The problem is that San Jose essentially just needs 2 points, and all of these guys play each other. So a crazy, theoretical scenario for SJ to somehow miss the playoffs:

Anaheim plays MIN, DAL, and ARI. They must get at least 5 of the 6 possible points and land at 100, because even if they tied San Jose in ROW at 39 games, San Jose holds the season series tiebreaker over Anaheim.
- Lose in OT/SO against MIN
- Win in any fashion against DAL and ARI

Colorado plays LA, SJ, and STL - all very important games for them. So essentially, Colorado needs to:
- Win in OT/SO against LA
- Win in regulation against SJ
- Win in OT/SO against STL

St. Louis plays WSH tonight, CHI twice, and COL at the end.
- Win in any fashion against Washington and both Chicago games
- Lose in OT/SO against Colorado

LA plays COL, DAL, and MIN.
- Lose in OT/SO to COL
- Win in any fashion against DAL and MIN

Minnesota plays EDM, ANA, LA, and SJ.
- Lose in any fashion to EDM and LA
- Win in OT/SO against ANA
- Win in regulation against SJ

Finally, SJ plays DAL, COL, MIN
- Lose in any fashion to DAL
- Lose in regulation against COL and MIN

Which would leave LA in 2nd Pacific, Ducks in 3rd Pacific, the Central teams taking the last Central slot and both wildcards, and SJ sitting outside at 99 points, due to losing the ROW tiebreaker to everyone but the Ducks.

Not looking great now - everything will hinge on the outcome of the COL-LAK game. Should COL fail to win, the Sharks will clinch.

There’s an even more unlikely scenario of the Sharks being eliminated, should the Avs win in OT/SO.

This is fun.

 

[Paul4587]

St. Louis and Colorado both aren’t catching us but it’s still likely the kings could. If that all happens we draw Vegas which would be awesome for us. I’m hoping the Kings win out and we hold off for the WC1 spot.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

With the blues losing, 4 points will clinch us a playoff spot. Every point the blues lose drops our number by one.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

I’m in the same boat; they look like they’ve put it all together. It’s preferable to Nashville, but it’s Vegas or bust

They have lost 3 in a row

 

[eternalbedhead]

With the blues losing, 4 points will clinch us a playoff spot. Every point the blues lose drops our number by one.

We only need 3 now, as Colorado lost.

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

They have lost 3 in a row

I'm lazy. Still think Vegas is a good matchup for this team.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Sharks just lost their fourth straight to struggling Dallas. Ducks and Kings both positioned to potentially steal home ice now

 

[eternalbedhead]

San Jose still controls their own destiny but that #2 spot is still very much up for grabs.

 

[Mortal Wombat]

Also, if Nashville loses in regulation to WSH and CBJ and Vegas beats both EDM and CGY in any fashion, Vegas will be the 1st seed. Not at all impossible.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

It's also very possible that we lose the next two in regulation and end up on life support going into Arizona.

 

[dracom]

It's also very possible that we lose the next two in regulation and end up on life support going into Arizona.

If we miss the playoffs due to losing to Arizona, then that would be the perfect way to end this awful season.

 

[AngelDuck]

I think the perfect way to end this "awful season" would be to win the Cup

 

[JohnnyDrama]

With all the flaws of the Ducks and coaching/management, barring a major collapse, they should get a lot of credit if they make the playoffs this year. A lot of good teams wouldn’t have been able to climb out of the position they were in with the list of major injuries they’ve had and be sitting this good right now in a tight race. Their resiliency and ability to climb back into games and get points is often overlooked, as frustrating as it is.

 

[Duck Off]

With all the flaws of the Ducks and coaching/management, barring a major collapse, they should get a lot of credit if they make the playoffs this year. A lot of good teams wouldn’t have been able to climb out of the position they were in with the list of major injuries they’ve had and be sitting this good right now in a tight race. Their resiliency and ability to climb back into games and get points is often overlooked, as frustrating as it is.

It's a weird year. The team deserves an enormous amount of credit for staying in the hunt despite the insane amount of injuries we had to start the year. However, when we got healthy, the team deserves a lot of shit for pissing away prime points where would already be locked in. I have been one of Murray's biggest critics in years, and I think our current roster is arguably the best roster we've had since the WCF loss to Chicago. The biggest argument against it is that Kesler isn't nearly himself though.

 

[pbgoalie]

It's a weird year. The team deserves an enormous amount of credit for staying in the hunt despite the insane amount of injuries we had to start the year. However, when we got healthy, the team deserves a lot of **** for pissing away prime points where would already be locked in. I have been one of Murray's biggest critics in years, and I think our current roster is arguably the best roster we've had since the WCF loss to Chicago. The biggest argument against it is that Kesler isn't nearly himself though.

There are players that deserve a lot of credit
Gibson, Kase, Grant, Getz. And others

Unfortunately, our goalies play is the main reason, and that will extend the idiots behind the bench another season.
I do hope they do well in the playoffs, but Carlyle and rest have been embarrassingly bad

Hope Gibson is healthy enough to play his best, he deserves it

 

[Bender66]

Just got email from Ducks about playoff presale ... yeah ... optimistic much?

 

[Frosted Tips]

Just got email from Ducks about playoff presale ... yeah ... optimistic much?

Well I guess the current odds are about 99%

 

[ffh]

Also, if Nashville loses in regulation to WSH and CBJ and Vegas beats both EDM and CGY in any fashion, Vegas will be the 1st seed. Not at all impossible.

What if winnipeg wins both games. Calgary and chicago. Won't they get 1st.

 

[Mortal Wombat]

What if winnipeg wins both games. Calgary and chicago. Won't they get 1st.

You are correct, they would. Plenty of scenarios for the first round opponent if we make the playoffs.

 

[bumperkisser]

100%

 

[DaGeneral]

One point behind SJ.

 

[The Duck Knight]

So SJ at 100 with 1 game left. LA at 98 with 1 game left. LA wins the tiebreaker with SJ. I'd prefer to avoid the agony of a Ducks-Knights series as long as possible and would welcome a rematch with the Kings.

If we can win out and the Sharks lose and the Kings win Saturday we'll get home ice against LA.

 

[DaGeneral]

I don’t want the LAK in the first round. Knights > Sharks > Kings. In that order for me