NHL Playoff Odds

[The Midnight Burrito]

I'm not gonna laugh at that until after we play the Canucks.

So, yeah.

 

[DaGeneral]

8 possible points left.

Currently 93, if we can grab 6 points in our final 4 games.. we’d land with SJ.

6-1-1 in our last 8

Because nothing comes easy for this team.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Has Hazy quietly backed away from his 95 point prediction?

 

[bsu]

I don't want sj AT ALL.

I wish there was some way to play the kings. Damnit.

 

[Pennaduck]

Has Hazy quietly backed away from his 95 point prediction?

It looks like it'll take 98. St Louis is currently the #8 with 5 games remaining and are 8-1-1 in their last 10. I can't see them not winning 3 of their last 5 at the rate they are rolling. Similarly, I'm pretty confidant that LA will get 4 points out of their last 3 games and we will get 5 in our last 4, based on the rate the Kings and Ducks have been winning over the past few weeks and the quality of competition.

It's crazy to think that several teams just a few points shy of 100 are going to be finishing in the bottom half of the playoff bracket.

 

[Pennaduck]

I don't want sj AT ALL.

I wish there was some way to play the kings. Damnit.

I think the Kings and Ducks will finished 7th and 8th, hopefully with us in the 7th seed ad LA in 8th taking on Nashville. SJ looks like a lock to play Minnesota first round.

At least thats what I am pulling for. SJ/MN would be a great series, as would StL/WPG. We'd have a 50/50 chance at beating Vegas I think, and LA would have the honors of trying to soften up the Preds for us, should we advance to round 2.

 

[darkwingduck]

I think the Kings and Ducks will finished 7th and 8th, hopefully with us in the 7th seed ad LA in 8th taking on Nashville. SJ looks like a lock to play Minnesota first round.

At least thats what I am pulling for. SJ/MN would be a great series, as would StL/WPG. We'd have a 50/50 chance at beating Vegas I think, and LA would have the honors of trying to soften up the Preds for us, should we advance to round 2.

Want to bet that san Jose doesn't play Minnesota round 1?

 

[The Duck Knight]

I think the Kings and Ducks will finished 7th and 8th, hopefully with us in the 7th seed ad LA in 8th taking on Nashville. SJ looks like a lock to play Minnesota first round.

At least thats what I am pulling for. SJ/MN would be a great series, as would StL/WPG. We'd have a 50/50 chance at beating Vegas I think, and LA would have the honors of trying to soften up the Preds for us, should we advance to round 2.

Not possible. One of LA/ANA is guaranteed to play SJ. I just hope we avoid the Preds.

 

[AngelDuck]

If Arizona can beat the Blues tonight it would really help us. Not expecting it though

 

[Pennaduck]

Want to bet that san Jose doesn't play Minnesota round 1?

Not possible. One of LA/ANA is guaranteed to play SJ. I just hope we avoid the Preds.

Oh, right...I forgot about the stupid rule that the #2 and #3 of each division play each other 1st round. I was just looking at the current conference standings. The NHL makes everything more complicated than it needs to be.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Oh, right...I forgot about the stupid rule that the #2 and #3 of each division play each other 1st round. I was just looking at the current conference standings. The NHL makes everything more complicated than it needs to be.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

I don't think we can afford to lose more than one game in regulation.

 

[PrototypeX85]

I don't think we can afford to lose more than one game in regulation.

5 of 8 points should be enough. That's 2-1-1, or even an unlikely 1-0-3. But you're right. We can likely only afford one regulation loss. But even then, our game against Colorado is the most important thing. We gain two points and keep them from earning any points, and I really like our chances of getting into the playoffs.

 

[Magnus the Duck]

Blues got pounded 0-6 by Coyotes, so we are still ahead of them with same games played.

 

[The Duck Knight]

I think it's going to take 6 points to avoid Nashville. Obviously anything can happen, but I think LA wins 2 of 3 and the Blues win 3 of 4. That would put both at 98.

 

[The Duck Knight]

If we were to win out we might very well still be able to get home ice. Sharks have DAL/COL/MIN. We would need them to lose 2 of 3. Hopefully the Avs win in regulation tomorrow to give us some cushion on the Kings.

 

[Magnus the Duck]

Hopefully the Avs win in regulation tomorrow to give us some cushion on the Kings.

Choosing between plague and cholera, I hope Kings win.

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

If we were to win out we might very well still be able to get home ice. Sharks have DAL/COL/MIN. We would need them to lose 2 of 3. Hopefully the Avs win in regulation tomorrow to give us some cushion on the Kings.

I bet Dallas mails it in for the season don’t see them as a threat to SJ and Minnesota just lost suter for the season that’s their number one d

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Choosing between plague and cholera, I hope Kings win.

Don't really care, just don't want a 3 point game. The Avs look like a free pass to whomever gets them in the first round, but whatever. I don't really expect that to matter for us.

 

[AngelDuck]

Ducks have put themselves in a really good spot. If we can go 1-0-2 or 2-0-1 we likely avoid Nashville

 

[Arthuros]

I'm always amused by clinching scenarios when it comes down to the last few days, especially because now you can map out fun scenarios by hand.

San Jose, sitting at 2nd place in the Pacific with 98 points and 39 ROWs, can fall out of the playoff picture completely if:
- They lose all 3 remaining games, with at most 1 OT/SO loss
- Anaheim goes 2-0-1, putting them at 100
- Colorado wins out their 3 games, putting them at 99
- St. Louis goes at worst 3-0-1, putting them at 99
- LA goes at worst 2-0-1, putting them at 99
- Minnesota gets at least 3 points out of the next 4 games, putting them at 99

The problem is that San Jose essentially just needs 2 points, and all of these guys play each other. So a crazy, theoretical scenario for SJ to somehow miss the playoffs:

Anaheim plays MIN, DAL, and ARI. They must get at least 5 of the 6 possible points and land at 100, because even if they tied San Jose in ROW at 39 games, San Jose holds the season series tiebreaker over Anaheim.
- Lose in OT/SO against MIN
- Win in any fashion against DAL and ARI

Colorado plays LA, SJ, and STL - all very important games for them. So essentially, Colorado needs to:
- Win in OT/SO against LA
- Win in regulation against SJ
- Win in OT/SO against STL

St. Louis plays WSH tonight, CHI twice, and COL at the end.
- Win in any fashion against Washington and both Chicago games
- Lose in OT/SO against Colorado

LA plays COL, DAL, and MIN.
- Lose in OT/SO to COL
- Win in any fashion against DAL and MIN

Minnesota plays EDM, ANA, LA, and SJ.
- Lose in any fashion to EDM and LA
- Win in OT/SO against ANA
- Win in regulation against SJ

Finally, SJ plays DAL, COL, MIN
- Lose in any fashion to DAL
- Lose in regulation against COL and MIN

Which would leave LA in 2nd Pacific, Ducks in 3rd Pacific, the Central teams taking the last Central slot and both wildcards, and SJ sitting outside at 99 points, due to losing the ROW tiebreaker to everyone but the Ducks.

 

[DaGeneral]

Dude, nice work lol

 

[Arthuros]

Dude, nice work lol

I was reading over clinching scenarios and saw that San Jose hadn't mathematically clinched yet, and I thought "How could the Sharks possibly choke this spot away".

Turns out, it could theoretically happen. Shame that it's so unlikely at this point - Minnesota is the easy one since they only have to get 3 out of 8 possible points, but the rest almost entirely rely on 3-point games.

 

[ScarTroy]

I was reading over clinching scenarios and saw that San Jose hadn't mathematically clinched yet, and I thought "How could the Sharks possibly choke this spot away".

Turns out, it could theoretically happen. Shame that it's so unlikely at this point - Minnesota is the easy one since they only have to get 3 out of 8 possible points, but the rest almost entirely rely on 3-point games.

If any team could choke that away though, it's the Sharks

 

[bsu]

Do not want San Jose