NHL Playoff Odds

Trojans86

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Dec 30, 2015
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Kings matchup would be fun and I can see us winning. All 3 teams are pretty equal to me.
 

Not So Mighty

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I'm just grateful to have avoided Nashville for two rounds. We can beat any of the three PAC teams just as easily as we can lose to them. I expect a good, fun series. I was afraid of San Jose because they were so hot but they've cooled off and I wouldn't mind catching them in a funk and being 2-0 against them in playoffs. Anaheim has proven over the last couple years that we can beat LA. I want revenge on them for 2014. I don't buy Vegas as being any better than us. I want to be the first team to beat them. If they beat us, oh well. I thought we were done after the Vancouver loss anyway.

Again, I'm just grateful we have a realistic path back to the Conference Final.
 
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caliamad

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Mar 14, 2003
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The eye test tells me that nashville and winnipeg are a cut above the rest, i dont care who webplay in the first round. There will be no pushovers and i cant really argue any will be easier than another. We will eventually have to play them.

I hope fowler and gibson are back before he end of thr first round.
 
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duxfan1101

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Sep 20, 2014
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I'm totally fine playing SJ in the first round, definitely don't want to be Vegas' first victim. Their arena is going to be pumped up and that team will be even more tenacious than usual, if possible.
 

HanSolo

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Apr 7, 2008
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Well, if we are playing that game.. When the Ducks are motivated they are one of the best teams in the league.
I'm saying that in the context of Vegas hasn't really been playing overly motivated hockey for the last month or so. The jump in their step will almost surely be back with the playoffs motivating them.

That doesn't mean I think Anaheim won't hit a new level with the playoffs motivating them. But across here, Twitter, and reddit I'm seeing Ducks fans acting like if we got SJS we're screwed and if we got Vegas it would be an easy stroll to round 2.

I just don't think Vegas will be that easy to beat.
 
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HanSolo

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Apr 7, 2008
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That's harder to predict than the lottery numbers.
I think there's always an extra level the Ducks can hit with the playoffs motivating. The problem is that motivation suffers lapses at key times.

I have no doubt we'll see better hockey from this team. I just hesitate to say it would be enough to make a matchup against any team we may have to face easy.

I honestly believe that between SJ and Vegas they're both just as beatable. I think Vegas' speed and if their defensive system gets going again, could be far more problematic than SJS.

Now of course the systems that made Vegas unstoppable have been dormant pretty much since the All-Star break so it's very possible it never comes back but if being in the playoffs can galvanize them, they could be a very difficult opponent.

From a personal standpoint I'm hoping we draw against SJS and just go all out on them. I'm not sure we can beat Nashville short of having more time in the playoffs to work on developing a game good enough to beat them. Maybe they suffer some injuries.
 

rlstine

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Jun 14, 2017
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One of the most interesting things to me in the NHL right now is that you basically have to have a top-3 pick on your roster to win a Stanley Cup. You'd have to go back to the 2000-2001 Colorado Avalanche to find a team that didn't have one. Unfortunately there's only one playoff team in the league right now that doesn't have one.

It's Anaheim.
 
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TopShelfWaterBottle

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Mar 16, 2014
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One of the most interesting things to me in the NHL right now is that you basically have to have a top-3 pick on your roster to win a Stanley Cup. You'd have to go back to the 2000-2001 Colorado Avalanche to find a team that didn't have one. Unfortunately there's only one playoff team in the league right now that doesn't have one.

It's Anaheim.
I see your comment and raise you a Getzlaf who would be first overall in a redraft
 

Dr Johnny Fever

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Apr 11, 2012
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I think there's always an extra level the Ducks can hit with the playoffs motivating. The problem is that motivation suffers lapses at key times.

I have no doubt we'll see better hockey from this team. I just hesitate to say it would be enough to make a matchup against any team we may have to face easy.

I honestly believe that between SJ and Vegas they're both just as beatable. I think Vegas' speed and if their defensive system gets going again, could be far more problematic than SJS.

Now of course the systems that made Vegas unstoppable have been dormant pretty much since the All-Star break so it's very possible it never comes back but if being in the playoffs can galvanize them, they could be a very difficult opponent.

From a personal standpoint I'm hoping we draw against SJS and just go all out on them. I'm not sure we can beat Nashville short of having more time in the playoffs to work on developing a game good enough to beat them. Maybe they suffer some injuries.
It's not that anybody is wrong in their assessment of opponents, but rather that this team has proven it's ability to be totally unmotivated in the most important games of the season. Whether it's game 6 or game 7 this team knows how to come out flat as a pancake and look like they just don't care. It's their most memorable trait.
 

HanSolo

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Apr 7, 2008
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It's not that anybody is wrong in their assessment of opponents, but rather that this team has proven it's ability to be totally unmotivated in the most important games of the season. Whether it's game 6 or game 7 this team knows how to come out flat as a pancake and look like they just don't care. It's their most memorable trait.
True. I mean I'm proud of the Ducks for making it but I still have strong reservations about this coach and leadership group within the roster.
 
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Trojans86

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Dec 30, 2015
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One of the most interesting things to me in the NHL right now is that you basically have to have a top-3 pick on your roster to win a Stanley Cup. You'd have to go back to the 2000-2001 Colorado Avalanche to find a team that didn't have one. Unfortunately there's only one playoff team in the league right now that doesn't have one.

It's Anaheim.
Yep. This also gets to my concern when Getzlaf falls off. you almost need to tank for a season to get an elite player to fill that void. Sucks that tanking is so rewarded.
 

Dryish

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Dec 14, 2015
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Well, outside of GMs taking massive risks in trading for a high end talent by sending loads of assets into other teams that could, should, and most likely would lead to their contract terminations should they be getting back a dud, the current draft system is pretty much your best bet in terms of maintaining parity. There really are only so many truly elite human individuals, and if you don't have the draft system in place you'll get those guys only going to the places that offer them the best money or the best environment, or more seldom their home towns.

I gotta say, I don't mind the draft system. I really don't see how you can find
 
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Jul 29, 2003
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One of the most interesting things to me in the NHL right now is that you basically have to have a top-3 pick on your roster to win a Stanley Cup. You'd have to go back to the 2000-2001 Colorado Avalanche to find a team that didn't have one. Unfortunately there's only one playoff team in the league right now that doesn't have one.

It's Anaheim.

That's one of those pretty neat coincidences, but also kind of speaks more to how pretty much every team has a top-3 pick on their roster. I think the only ones that don't are us, Calgary, the Rangers and Detroit.

Looking into it, we've also just had very few top-3 picks ever play for us. Might be missing some of the older boys, but I think its just Niedermayer, Pronger, Tverdovsky, Ryan and Heatley. Thats kind of insane.
 
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rlstine

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Jun 14, 2017
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That's one of those pretty neat coincidences, but also kind of speaks more to how pretty much every team has a top-3 pick on their roster. I think the only ones that don't are us, Calgary, the Rangers and Detroit.

Looking into it, we've also just had very few top-3 picks ever play for us. Might be missing some of the older boys, but I think its just Niedermayer, Pronger, Tverdovsky, Ryan and Heatley. Thats kind of insane.

Yeah that's probably the better point to make. There really aren't that many teams that don't have any at all. It's probably not a good sign that all the teams that don't have one though are considered the kind of middling teams who aren't good enough to win cups and aren't bad enough to win the lottery.


I was looking through some other stats that cup winners seem to have in common and the strongest correlations seem to be with 5 on 5 Sv% (Anaheim is 2nd), CF60 (21st), GA/60 (5th), and surprisingly, penalty differential (30th). Unsurprisingly, if you sum all those things together Tampa and Nashville look like the two most likely champions.
 

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