New Houston Rockets Owner Open To NHL Team

[Enyaw]

ARZ relocates to Central Div .... Becomes the Houston Aeros

Seattle added to the Pacific

32 and done

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

ARZ relocates to Central Div .... Becomes the Houston Aeros

Seattle added to the Pacific

32 and done

under whose ownership, though

 

[Llama19]

under whose ownership, though

This guy's...

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

This guy's...

again, not happening

 

[KevFu]

I agree and disagree, I don't want to see any fans lose their team, but I'm not sure the yotes can survive in Arizona.

I don't disagree with anything you said except the survive part.

It seems to me, the opinion on who "failed" and "can't survive" versus who "had someone greedy steal their team" is based on the weather. No one's folded since the advent of cable sports networks.

Atlanta, Phoenix, Miami and Carolina and "can't survive" because most of us prefer teams in Winnipeg, Quebec, Hartford, Hamilton, or wherever.
Minnesota, Winnipeg, Quebec, Denver all lost franchises, but those markets aren't failures, they deserve/deserved second chances (because it's cold there, I guess?).
The Rangers, Devils and Islanders share a market, and at one point, they were 1st, 15th and 30th financially.

If we can see hockey survive/thrive, and also FAIL/RELOCATE FROM the exact same market, then it's not the market. It's all circumstance.

You're close than anyone else talking about the Coyotes when you say "brand has poisoned the wells." It's a lot harder now to prove to the community that a new regime isn't the same as the old regime. But that still doesn't make it impossible to find the circumstances for success.

 

[Melrose Munch]

again, not happening

just like you said Seattle wouldn't get a team...

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

just like you said Seattle wouldn't get a team...

Seattle still doesn't have one until the arena is done, MM

 

[Melrose Munch]

Seattle still doesn't have one until the arena is done, MM

They have one, it's not official. Admit it.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

They have one, it's not official. Admit it.

NOPE, IT'S NOT.... UNLESS WE'VE SKIPPED 2018 ALTOGETHER, AS WELL AS 2019, MM

 

[Melrose Munch]

NOPE, IT'S NOT.... UNLESS WE'VE SKIPPED 2018 ALTOGETHER, AS WELL AS 2019, MM

So what do you think is going to happen when the ticket drive is done. Or does it not count until the puck is dropped in 2020 to you?

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

So what do you think is going to happen when the ticket drive is done. Or does it not count until the puck is dropped in 2020 to you?

YOU'RE NOT getting it, when did the NHL Say it was reopening expansion?

 

[Melrose Munch]

YOU'RE NOT getting it, when did the NHL Say it was reopening expansion?

Seattle can begin NHL expansion process

 

[TheLegend]

This could be either in the Flames, or this thread but since it outlines a scenario for a future sale to Houston.....

Francis: 150 million more reasons for Flames owners to sell

 

[KevFu]

This could be either in the Flames, or this thread but since it outlines a scenario for a future sale to Houston.....

Francis: 150 million more reasons for Flames owners to sell

I don't see it playing out that way. There's 450 million more reasons for the NHL to give Houston an expansion team than let the Flames move there.

Based on the Forbes value / sale price / relocation fee of the Thrashers to Winnipeg, we're talking about (ballpark) a $650 million deal: the Flames getting sold for $450m, and a $200m relocation fee to the NHL to move to Houston.

Why is the 30 other NHL teams going to vote to take $200 million rather than $650 million for the Houston market? That's 70% less than what they could get, $15 million per team.


If you're the gambling type, a much safer bet would be:
Seattle: expansion
Houston: expansion
Quebec: expansion
Portland/Kansas City: Flames

Paul Allen isn't paying expansion prices. If Fretitta is willing, he absolutely is paying expansion prices.

 

[gstommylee]

I don't see it playing out that way. There's 450 million more reasons for the NHL to give Houston an expansion team than let the Flames move there.

Based on the Forbes value / sale price / relocation fee of the Thrashers to Winnipeg, we're talking about (ballpark) a $650 million deal: the Flames getting sold for $450m, and a $200m relocation fee to the NHL to move to Houston.

Why is the 30 other NHL teams going to vote to take $200 million rather than $650 million for the Houston market? That's 70% less than what they could get, $15 million per team.


If you're the gambling type, a much safer bet would be:
Seattle: expansion
Houston: expansion
Quebec: expansion
Portland/Kansas City: Flames

Paul Allen isn't paying expansion prices. If Fretitta is willing, he absolutely is paying expansion prices.

And who says the NHL wants to have more than 32. And what makes you think Freitta is willing to pay higher than 650m?

 

[KevFu]

And who says the NHL wants to have more than 32. And what makes you think Freitta is willing to pay higher than 650m?

#2 - Who said anything about Freitta paying more? It's about who GETS the cheque from Fretitta. Assume it's the same $650 million total for Fretitta either way:
Expansion: 31 owners split $650 million 31 ways.
Relocation: Calgary's ownership group gets the sale price, 31 owners split relocation fee 31 ways. That's likely a $450/$200 million or $475/$175 million split between sale price/relocation fee. Something in that neighbor hood.

#1 - Who says the NHL wants more than 32 teams? Common sense. Reality. a.k.a. Money.

Houston Flames: 32 teams. $200 million relocation fee. Continued stewing in Quebec. Rioting in Calgary.

Houston Aeros, Quebec Nordiques: 34 teams. $1.15 BILLION (or more) in expansion fees. Jubilation in Quebec. Continued questions in Calgary.

The NHL could take half the expansion fee, buy the Flames, be their stewards for a while until they negotiate an arena deal. And if that fails, sell the team to Paul Allen at a discount rate so he finally buys an NHL team, and still come out a half billion dollars ahead than letting the Flames move to Houston.

But in what universe do you see the NHL owners leaving a billion dollars on the table if Houston and Quebec both want in?

 

[Melrose Munch]

Fertitta is not going to end up paying 600 million. Maybe the media will report that, but what he'll actually pay will be much different.

 

[powerstuck]

But in what universe do you see the NHL owners leaving a billion dollars on the table if Houston and Quebec both want in?

If you ask me...NHL is already leaving half a billion on the table by f***ing with Quebec. They can go ... themselves.

 

[Voight]

I don't see it playing out that way. There's 450 million more reasons for the NHL to give Houston an expansion team than let the Flames move there.

Based on the Forbes value / sale price / relocation fee of the Thrashers to Winnipeg, we're talking about (ballpark) a $650 million deal: the Flames getting sold for $450m, and a $200m relocation fee to the NHL to move to Houston.

Why is the 30 other NHL teams going to vote to take $200 million rather than $650 million for the Houston market? That's 70% less than what they could get, $15 million per team.


If you're the gambling type, a much safer bet would be:
Seattle: expansion
Houston: expansion
Quebec: expansion
Portland/Kansas City: Flames

Paul Allen isn't paying expansion prices. If Fretitta is willing, he absolutely is paying expansion prices.

From the Francis article

Don’t be fooled by the $430 million Forbes estimated the team to be worth last month – the Flames wouldn’t sell for a dime less than the newly-pegged cost of starting a franchise from scratch. (Minus sizeable NHL transfer fees, of course.)
After all, there’s far more value in acquiring a team with proven, marketable superstars like Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan and backed by a solid team and front office that knows the business inside out.

 

[Killion]

If you ask me...NHL is already leaving half a billion on the table by ****ing with Quebec. They can go ... themselves.

.... indeed... and same thing Ive been saying about Hamilton for years. Oh well. Stupid is as stupid does.

 

[MNNumbers]

Back to HOUSTON....

We know that Fertitta and Bettman had a conversation. We know that Fertitta said he would like to bring NHL to Houston. But he also qualified that with a comment about a price that works.

I am wondering if anyone knows anything more about that.

I think that we all have been assuming that NHL to Houston is a 'done deal', but that wording makes me think not. I am sure that Toyota Center is profitable with the Rockets. I know that NHL hockey would fill dates. But, as we have learned, it is most often the other parts (not the team itself) that make ownership profitable. At 650M, I am not sure that the presence of 41 filled dates creates enough positive cash flow to satisfy debt service. (At 5%, the team has to be 30M in the black every year just to service the debt - there are other investments which would surely do much better).

Comments??

 

[bam09]

I'm sometimes a bit thick so bare with me: Why did OVG and why would Fertitta pay the full expansion fee? It seems to me they have quite a bit of leverage as they control the only NHL quality buildings in the two best non-NHL serviced markets, and have a floundering franchise that they could surely muscle into their city like Thomson did in Winnipeg. What's the reason here?

 

[Killion]

I'm sometimes a bit thick so bare with me: Why did OVG and why would Fertitta pay the full expansion fee? It seems to me they have quite a bit of leverage as they control the only NHL quality buildings in the two best non-NHL serviced markets, and have a floundering franchise that they could surely muscle into their city like Thomson did in Winnipeg. What's the reason here?

Finite number of NHL (and NBA) franchises, the League in the drivers seat, will not brook hostile relocation attempts of floundering franchises, back doors & windows sealed. You can only come in through the front door, by way of Expansion however if a team absolutely does have to move & you play the NHL's game (as Winnipeg did) then potentially you could be rewarded, be first in line for a Relo if and only if Expansion off the table as it was during the fiasco in Atlanta, ongoing in Arizona.

Seattle & OVG need the NHL more than the NHL needs it, investing $650M+ to renovate Key Arena, they need an anchor tenant, no idea if the NBA returns or not, so ya, their going to follow the NHL's rules, policies & dictates and that means you only get in by way of Expansion. A one-off at that. OVG has capital costs in completing the renovations and without an anchor tenant, NHL or NBA, theres no way they start making much of a dint in those costs with concerts, events, consumer & trade shows, boutique type sports like pro lacrosse, WNBA etc. On the hook now Baby. In for a penny in for a pound & you play along with the leagues or your screwed.

Same dynamic we saw with Las Vegas. It would have made far more practical sense to have moved the troubled Coyotes franchise to Nevada however the NHL was unwilling to do that, the Expansion process & fee charged boosting franchise values league wide whereas a fire sale, getting in on the cheap in acquiring the Coyotes, the NHL at a disadvantage in negotiating a sale price would have been counter-productive to increasing franchise valuations. And franchise valuations/value is what all of the owners league wide really care about. Finite # of franchises, exclusive, you pay our asking price or you can go whistle up a dark alley.

Whole new paradigm going on now. You'll pay $500M, $650M even for the Coyotes if & when they decide to pull the plug & sell out of market, or if they allow Barroway to move it himself & take on a Minority Partner like Fertitta that franchise the minute it lands in Houston automatically worth $650M or whatever the going rate is for an Expansion Team in terms of that set price, what it will cost Fertitta to buy in be it 49% ($325M) or 100% ($650M). Highly debatable whether the franchise is worth that market-market of course. The Coyotes where is as is worth actually less than zero, money pit, so there you go. Hell of a price to pay, artificially inflated, saddled with major debt before the pucks even dropped. Add the costs of a new facility in some cases, talking serious money.

 

[powerstuck]

Back to HOUSTON....

We know that Fertitta and Bettman had a conversation. We know that Fertitta said he would like to bring NHL to Houston. But he also qualified that with a comment about a price that works.

I am wondering if anyone knows anything more about that.

I think that we all have been assuming that NHL to Houston is a 'done deal', but that wording makes me think not. I am sure that Toyota Center is profitable with the Rockets. I know that NHL hockey would fill dates. But, as we have learned, it is most often the other parts (not the team itself) that make ownership profitable. At 650M, I am not sure that the presence of 41 filled dates creates enough positive cash flow to satisfy debt service. (At 5%, the team has to be 30M in the black every year just to service the debt - there are other investments which would surely do much better).

Comments??

I seem to have seen a twitter quote somewhere here that either Bettman or Daly said they didn't have anything concrete with Houston. The quote was in the same period as they said Seattle can submit a bit.

 

[bam09]

Thanks, Killion. That makes total sense. I remembered Winnipeg's move as far more hostile, but that was obviously a mis-recollection. Should have thought about the fees the NFL made Kroenke and Spanos pay to move their franchises to LA, even with the promise of potentially the NFL's marquee venue in tow.