Value of: Nazem Kadri

[TBC]

If someone describes a player as a "30 goals scorer", even more so when speaking about said player's value in a trade, to me - and I assume to many others - I expect a player who is a constant 30 goals scorer. Kadri is a 17-20 goals scorer who got a lucky year. That's all.

Kadri is a gritty, two-way mid/low #2C, good for 40-50 points on average, who got a career year in 16-17. Now do go on and reveal any astonishing truth that I am missing, please?

His stats were the opposite of luck. They were exactly where they should've been compared to the previous year when he had a terrible shooting percentage.

Using your logic I guess Pastrnak isn't actually a 70 point player and he had a lucky year considering he has never gotten over 30 points before this year and was never on pace for 70 points.

Players progress and get better than there previous years. You can't use a players statistics from years where he was still developing into what he is today to judge his average. Pastrnak isn't going to average 50pts a year, he is more of a 65-75pt player. Kadri isn't a 40-50 point player, he is a 50-60 pt player.

 

[Vatican Roulette]

Ryan Ellis
Calle Jarnkrok

For

Nazem Kadri
Alexey Marchenko

 

[TBC]

Ryan Ellis
Calle Jarnkrok

For

Nazem Kadri
Alexey Marchenko

If Nashville actually offered this it would be a yes.

 

[Vatican Roulette]

If Nashville actually offered this it would be a yes.

Just an idea. Tried to take in value and needs.

 

[firstemperor]

Just an idea. Tried to take in value and needs.

That's probably the package that returns Kadri but I probably don't do it. Value-wise its fine. I wouldn't be disappointed if we did. But your basically filling 1 hole to address another. Kadri is a core piece for us.

 

[didimentionlarseller]

if I'm habs GM i would offer a lot i don't think toronto would ever trade him to us tho

 

[Vatican Roulette]

That's probably the package that returns Kadri but I probably don't do it. Value-wise its fine. I wouldn't be disappointed if we did. But your basically filling 1 hole to address another. Kadri is a core piece for us.

Kadri is a core piece. Ellis would be as well.

 

[bigbabybuda]

if I'm habs GM i would offer a lot i don't think toronto would ever trade him to us tho

I would literally cry if they traded him to Montreal lol.

 

[cyris]

if I'm habs GM i would offer a lot i don't think toronto would ever trade him to us tho

I wouldn't want to trade him in the division but I would do it for the right offer.
The problem with a trade to Montreal is you don't really have the main piece we would be looking for.
We don't really need futures or vets near or over 30.

We would want a proven top 4 RHD that fits our age range and you guys don't really have one to spare.
I would also be looking to expand the trade to include a #3 centre coming back to the Leafs that has less value than Naz. With the Leafs adding a bit to even out the trade.

 

[Halla]

Bolded is a classic, textbook example of homer glasses and subsequent distortion of reality.



Before this season, Kadri hit 20 goals in his career ONCE. In 6 seasons.



Technically, the bolded is correct. However I will just leave a name here: David Clarkson.

you are seriously gonna count the years where he played 21 and 29 games? not to mention the lockout (18/48 = 31 goal pace) ?

weak

Kadri has 113 goals in 408 games. thats 0.277 goals/game or 23 over a full season. his full season pace in pts is 52. keep in mind this is including the seasons where he was 20-21 and bouncing between the NHL and AHL

you are seriously trying way to hard to discount this player. I see a lot of similarities between him and Marchand, a guy who also only had two 50pt seasons in his first 6 years and didnt hit 30g until he was almost 28

 

[cyris]

He came up a couple of times in Isles threads (with other Leafs fans barging in being like NO ABSOLUTELY NOT) but anyway, Isles could offer something involving Hamonic or Pulock and probably add to that.

I'd be interested in something around Hamonic and Brock Nelson with the Leafs adding a bit.
What about:

Travis Hamonic
Brock Nelson

For

Nazem Kadri
Connor Carrick
2018 2nd (better of our 2 picks)


Carrick would be a bit of a throw in. Someone we would probably lose to expansion but you probably wouldn't due to having better exposed players.

 

[Gary Nylund]

This time last year he was worth less than RNH and leafs fans wanted to get rid of him like crazy now one good season and it's #1D or bust.

There are too many Leaf fans to make generalisations like this. It's true that many fans didn't like Naz but there were also many of us who did.

If someone describes a player as a "30 goals scorer", even more so when speaking about said player's value in a trade, to me - and I assume to many others - I expect a player who is a constant 30 goals scorer. Kadri is a 17-20 goals scorer who got a lucky year. That's all.

You seem to be really hung up on what the definition of a "30 goal scorer" is. It's a shame there's no official definition for this so I guess you can argue semantics until the cows come home, knock yourself out.

If you think Kadri was just lucky last year then you really haven't got a clue, not much else to say there.

Kadri is a gritty, two-way mid/low #2C, good for 40-50 points on average, who got a career year in 16-17. Now do go on and reveal any astonishing truth that I am missing, please?

OK you say he's good for 40-50 points, I guess we'll see now won't we.

I predicted before last season that he would average 55-60 points over the next 5 seasons, so far that looks good as he hit 61 last season. I was able to make this prediction despite the fact that he had never previously topped 50 points because I watch almost every Leaf game and have a pretty good idea what to expect from our players. Now you're a Boston fan and probably don't watch the Leafs much, that's probably why you haven't got a clue. No reason for you to feel bad, if all you have to go by is point totals then you can't be expected to know better but you might want to consider that there are people who have some insight on the subject that you simply don't have. If Kadri surpasses your predictions again next season, is that enough for you to admit you're wrong? How about the next two seasons? That's very likely to happen, whether it would be astonishing to you or not. And as a Boston fan, you may want to pay close attention to the post below:

you are seriously gonna count the years where he played 21 and 29 games? not to mention the lockout (18/48 = 31 goal pace) ?

weak

Kadri has 113 goals in 408 games. thats 0.277 goals/game or 23 over a full season. his full season pace in pts is 52. keep in mind this is including the seasons where he was 20-21 and bouncing between the NHL and AHL

you are seriously trying way to hard to discount this player. I see a lot of similarities between him and Marchand, a guy who also only had two 50pt seasons in his first 6 years and didnt hit 30g until he was almost 28

I see a lot of similarities between him and Marchand as well. I remember there were some haters writing off Kadri early last season (or even earlier) saying things like "by now, you know what we have in Kadri" (and then the poster above who seems certain that Kadri was just lucky last season) and Marchand is a perfect example of just how naively foolish such statements can be.

 

[BruinLVGA]

His stats were the opposite of luck. They were exactly where they should've been compared to the previous year when he had a terrible shooting percentage.

Using your logic I guess Pastrnak isn't actually a 70 point player and he had a lucky year considering he has never gotten over 30 points before this year and was never on pace for 70 points.

Players progress and get better than there previous years. You can't use a players statistics from years where he was still developing into what he is today to judge his average. Pastrnak isn't going to average 50pts a year, he is more of a 65-75pt player. Kadri isn't a 40-50 point player, he is a 50-60 pt player.

Huge difference is that Pastrnak got 70 points in 75 games at age 20/21, in season 3, after two seasons where he lost major amounts of games due to injuries/being allowed to go to the WJC. Getting that many points that young and after his only full season, bodes very well for the future.
Kadri got 61 points in 82 games at age 26/27, in season 7, while in the past 5 seasons he pretty much played the whole season, each season (= no injuries to make him miss huge chunks of seasons & therefore slowing down his progress).
So, not the same path at all & not comparable.

That said, Pastrnak put on an incredible amount of muscles in the summer of 2016 and with that he turned his only major weakness - being easily muscled off the puck - into one of his strengths. That's not a common thing for a player to transform a glaring weakness into a strong point. Now, his only (mild) weaknesses are: experience (= to help with decision making) and to nitpick, his one-timer could stand to be more precise more constantly. Both things can be easily addressed.
On the other hand, I am not aware of any major difference with Kadri: was there something dramatically different about him personally in 16-17, like for Pastrnak, that would make one think that Kadri v16-17 is the Kadri from now on, guaranteed?

And for the record, while I feel a bit optimistic about Pastrnak repeating his performance in 17-18 because he was just THAT dominant throughout the whole season, I am not ready yet to call him a 70 points player. He could very well have a 55-60 points season next year. So many things can go wrong in any given season. Fingers crossed that he will be as good as in 16-17.
I have doubts about Marchand getting in the high 80s too. I think he will get again 30+ goals (say 35), but assists... Not sure. I think that he will get 70+ points, but all the way up with the heavyweights around 85-90... Hmm, don't know.
If there's someone who I definitely think will do better next year is Bergeron and Krejci. Contrary to Leafs fans, I don't think that players always improve. Like everything in life, there's highs and lows and believe it or not, I don't think that even Leafs players are immune from that.

 

[varano]

Not that he'd be available at all, but I'd be looking for a Roman Josi type return for Nazem.

Nashville won't do it though.

You're out to lunch there....

 

[Gary Nylund]

Huge difference is that Pastrnak got 70 points in 75 games at age 20/21, in season 3, after two seasons where he lost major amounts of games due to injuries/being allowed to go to the WJC. Getting that many points that young and after his only full season, bodes very well for the future.
Kadri got 61 points in 82 games at age 26/27, in season 7, while in the past 5 seasons he pretty much played the whole season, each season (= no injuries to make him miss huge chunks of seasons & therefore slowing down his progress).
So, not the same path at all & not comparable.

That said, Pastrnak put on an incredible amount of muscles in the summer of 2016 and with that he turned his only major weakness - being easily muscled off the puck - into one of his strengths. That's not a common thing for a player to transform a glaring weakness into a strong point. Now, his only (mild) weaknesses are: experience (= to help with decision making) and to nitpick, his one-timer could stand to be more precise more constantly. Both things can be easily addressed.
On the other hand, I am not aware of any major difference with Kadri: was there something dramatically different about him personally in 16-17, like for Pastrnak, that would make one think that Kadri v16-17 is the Kadri from now on, guaranteed?

And for the record, while I feel a bit optimistic about Pastrnak repeating his performance in 17-18 because he was just THAT dominant throughout the whole season, I am not ready yet to call him a 70 points player. He could very well have a 55-60 points season next year. So many things can go wrong in any given season. Fingers crossed that he will be as good as in 16-17.
I have doubts about Marchand getting in the high 80s too. I think he will get again 30+ goals (say 35), but assists... Not sure. I think that he will get 70+ points, but all the way up with the heavyweights around 85-90... Hmm, don't know.
If there's someone who I definitely think will do better next year is Bergeron and Krejci. Contrary to Leafs fans, I don't think that players always improve. Like everything in life, there's highs and lows and believe it or not, I don't think that even Leafs players are immune from that.

Nobody's said anything is guaranteed, not Kadri's performance, not anyone else's performance. Nobody said players always improve. These straw man arguments are getting tiresome.

Like everything in life, there's high's and lows ... wow, that's deep. Any other pearls of wisdom to share oh wise one?

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Well this thread went to crap real fast.

Kadri would return a great piece. Think like a #1/Elite #2 defenseman.
He's a borderline #1c signed to a great contract long term.

That said, I have no desire to see him traded for anything short of an insane overpayment.

We'll solve our defense without trading Nazem.

he's my favourite player.

I will never understand the hate he gets within our own fanbase. He bleeds blue and white and signed a long team friendly contract. Every other team hates this guy and the more they hate him the more awesome he is to Leafs fans, or that's the way it should be (so many Leafs fans don't like him, wonder why?)

He's not a guy you trade because his value doesn't translate the same way for another team. It's not simply about his numbers or position, he brings more than that but for only this team. The value of drafting and developing and the loyalty that comes with that, doesn't always translate if traded to another team.

This is my favourite goal/moment of last season:

 

[seabass45]

I'd be interested in something around Hamonic and Brock Nelson with the Leafs adding a bit.
What about:

Travis Hamonic
Brock Nelson

For

Nazem Kadri
Connor Carrick
2018 2nd (better of our 2 picks)


Carrick would be a bit of a throw in. Someone we would probably lose to expansion but you probably wouldn't due to having better exposed players.

I'm in. Sounds like other Leafs fans would prefer to keep him though.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

There are too many Leaf fans to make generalisations like this. It's true that many fans didn't like Naz but there were also many of us who did.



You seem to be really hung up on what the definition of a "30 goal scorer" is. It's a shame there's no official definition for this so I guess you can argue semantics until the cows come home, knock yourself out.

If you think Kadri was just lucky last year then you really haven't got a clue, not much else to say there.



OK you say he's good for 40-50 points, I guess we'll see now won't we.

I predicted before last season that he would average 55-60 points over the next 5 seasons, so far that looks good as he hit 61 last season. I was able to make this prediction despite the fact that he had never previously topped 50 points because I watch almost every Leaf game and have a pretty good idea what to expect from our players. Now you're a Boston fan and probably don't watch the Leafs much, that's probably why you haven't got a clue. No reason for you to feel bad, if all you have to go by is point totals then you can't be expected to know better but you might want to consider that there are people who have some insight on the subject that you simply don't have. If Kadri surpasses your predictions again next season, is that enough for you to admit you're wrong? How about the next two seasons? That's very likely to happen, whether it would be astonishing to you or not. And as a Boston fan, you may want to pay close attention to the post below:



I see a lot of similarities between him and Marchand as well. I remember there were some haters writing off Kadri early last season (or even earlier) saying things like "by now, you know what we have in Kadri" (and then the poster above who seems certain that Kadri was just lucky last season) and Marchand is a perfect example of just how naively foolish such statements can be.

Kadri is the Leafs Marchand lite version (Marchand is on another level, much respect)

He's this generations Tucker for the Leafs.

how does a Leafs fan not love this guy?

Why the hell would you trade a guy like that who can be anything from a 1c, 2c, 3c depending on who else you have, injuries etc.?

 

[Rob Brown]

This time last year he was worth less than RNH and leafs fans wanted to get rid of him like crazy now one good season and it's #1D or bust.

Yeah, ALL Leafs fans wanted to get rid of him after his first good season in a while, and his first season with Babcock. You're totally right.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Kadri is the Leafs Marchand lite version (Marchand is on another level, much respect)

He's this generations Tucker for the Leafs.

how does a Leafs fan not love this guy?

Why the hell would you trade a guy like that who can be anything from a 1c, 2c, 3c depending on who else you have, injuries etc.?

I don't understand how some Leaf fans don't love Kadri either. At least there aren't many left, he won over most of the haters with his production over the last season and a half. Luckily we're at the beginning of a new era in Leafland, an era where there are many players to love and yes, Kadri is absolutely one of my favourites also.

Yes, Marchand is on another level, much respect from me there as well and I don't expect Kadri to ever reach that level. Never say never but I would be thrilled if he can keep playing at the level he's been at the last couple of seasons and I do believe he will do that.

Our GM was interviewed yesterday and said something to the effect that you don't plug a hole in the lineup by opening up a hole somewhere else in the lineup. This is exactly why Kadri won't be traded - his relatively unique skill set would be next to impossible to replace (at least I assume Marchand isn't available ).

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yeah, ALL Leafs fans wanted to get rid of him after his first good season in a while, and his first season with Babcock. You're totally right.

Perhaps he meant November 2015, at that time Kadri's shooting percentage was barely above zero, he was on pace for 32 points and the haters were having a field day. I remember making a bet at the time with one of the haters that he would hit 45 points for the season. That meant that he had to produce at a 55 point pace the rest of the way and he did just that. People think he came out of nowhere last season when the truth is, he's been steadily improving for many years now, the season before last was also a very good one for him despite having "only" 45 points and it only makes sense that his point totals would go up with (much) more talent around him.

 

[TBC]

Huge difference is that Pastrnak got 70 points in 75 games at age 20/21, in season 3, after two seasons where he lost major amounts of games due to injuries/being allowed to go to the WJC. Getting that many points that young and after his only full season, bodes very well for the future.
Kadri got 61 points in 82 games at age 26/27, in season 7, while in the past 5 seasons he pretty much played the whole season, each season (= no injuries to make him miss huge chunks of seasons & therefore slowing down his progress).
So, not the same path at all & not comparable.

That said, Pastrnak put on an incredible amount of muscles in the summer of 2016 and with that he turned his only major weakness - being easily muscled off the puck - into one of his strengths. That's not a common thing for a player to transform a glaring weakness into a strong point. Now, his only (mild) weaknesses are: experience (= to help with decision making) and to nitpick, his one-timer could stand to be more precise more constantly. Both things can be easily addressed.
On the other hand, I am not aware of any major difference with Kadri: was there something dramatically different about him personally in 16-17, like for Pastrnak, that would make one think that Kadri v16-17 is the Kadri from now on, guaranteed?

And for the record, while I feel a bit optimistic about Pastrnak repeating his performance in 17-18 because he was just THAT dominant throughout the whole season, I am not ready yet to call him a 70 points player. He could very well have a 55-60 points season next year. So many things can go wrong in any given season. Fingers crossed that he will be as good as in 16-17.
I have doubts about Marchand getting in the high 80s too. I think he will get again 30+ goals (say 35), but assists... Not sure. I think that he will get 70+ points, but all the way up with the heavyweights around 85-90... Hmm, don't know.
If there's someone who I definitely think will do better next year is Bergeron and Krejci. Contrary to Leafs fans, I don't think that players always improve. Like everything in life, there's highs and lows and believe it or not, I don't think that even Leafs players are immune from that.

You're acting like because he is 26 he had already reached his potential. Also I love how you focused on Pastrnaks growth and how he worked on his game but completely ignore what Kadri has done and dismissed it as nothing. You're clearly being bias.

Also I'm well aware that players have highs and lows. Do I expect Bozak do have as good of a season again? No. Did I expect Clarkson to repeat a 30 goal season? No. There is situations where you know that i'ts not progression and just a peak season for a player and then there is time where a young player has progressed his game and reached some of his potential. It's just rather ignorant really how you dismiss the work Kadri has put in.

Anyways no more wasting my time in this. Good day.

 

[Liferleafer]

Huge difference is that Pastrnak got 70 points in 75 games at age 20/21, in season 3, after two seasons where he lost major amounts of games due to injuries/being allowed to go to the WJC. Getting that many points that young and after his only full season, bodes very well for the future.
Kadri got 61 points in 82 games at age 26/27, in season 7, while in the past 5 seasons he pretty much played the whole season, each season (= no injuries to make him miss huge chunks of seasons & therefore slowing down his progress).
So, not the same path at all & not comparable.

That said, Pastrnak put on an incredible amount of muscles in the summer of 2016 and with that he turned his only major weakness - being easily muscled off the puck - into one of his strengths. That's not a common thing for a player to transform a glaring weakness into a strong point. Now, his only (mild) weaknesses are: experience (= to help with decision making) and to nitpick, his one-timer could stand to be more precise more constantly. Both things can be easily addressed.
On the other hand, I am not aware of any major difference with Kadri: was there something dramatically different about him personally in 16-17, like for Pastrnak, that would make one think that Kadri v16-17 is the Kadri from now on, guaranteed?

And for the record, while I feel a bit optimistic about Pastrnak repeating his performance in 17-18 because he was just THAT dominant throughout the whole season, I am not ready yet to call him a 70 points player. He could very well have a 55-60 points season next year. So many things can go wrong in any given season. Fingers crossed that he will be as good as in 16-17.
I have doubts about Marchand getting in the high 80s too. I think he will get again 30+ goals (say 35), but assists... Not sure. I think that he will get 70+ points, but all the way up with the heavyweights around 85-90... Hmm, don't know.
If there's someone who I definitely think will do better next year is Bergeron and Krejci. Contrary to Leafs fans, I don't think that players always improve. Like everything in life, there's highs and lows and believe it or not, I don't think that even Leafs players are immune from that.

You know what's funny about this post? The bolded line....why? Because you typed it after saying things like "i feel optimistic about Pasternak repeating his performance", and "I think Marchand will again get 30+goals".....and "I definitely think Bergeron and Krejci improve"....

What you should have typed is "contrary to Leafs fans, i think every player can/will improve.....except Kadri".

 

[Hine82]

How about we stop trying to trade all the best players we draft right when they are hitting their prime. Guy just scored 32 goals playing against other teams top lines and is signed for 4.5M for another 5 years. That is the type of contract that teams win championships with.

 

[OVO16]

Kadri aint gettin traded. He's as untouchable as Mathews. Yeah that's right I said it. Dont care what you non-leaf fans think. Kadri gonna be a leaf for a long long time.

Mods should just lock this thread