HF Habs: Montreal Canadiens Draft (#3, #35, #38, #56, #62, #66, #97, #102, #122 & #128)

[Runner77]

Yes, but don't forget that historically the chances of those 2nd's even becoming bottom six guys is not great. If 2 of those players plays 200 NHL games we will have done quite well. Still you have to roll the dice because most years great players come out of the 2nd and 3rd round.

Agreed. I've seen the depreciating percentages the deeper you get into the draft. This is where selecting one boom or bust type amongst the 4 second rounders could be a viable option rather than the safe players the Habs always seem to go for.

 

[WinterLion]

Agreed. I've seen the depreciating percentages the deeper you get into the draft. This is where selecting one boom or bust type amongst the 4 second rounders could be a viable option rather than the safe players the Habs always seem to go for.

I want them to go for impact players all through the draft. Where people may disagree with me is that I feel like a really good gritty 4th liner can be an impact player on a team... especially if he is signed to a good contract and developed in house.

As for the percentages, I think the biggest drop offs are way at the top of the draft... after that the drop-offs get smaller and smaller... really outside the top 10 you are statistically probably going to get an NHL regular.... not more. By the time you hit pick 20 you are looking at fringe NHLers on average... and that continues until about pick 100 more or less.

Here is a fun article about that:

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819

As fans we look by round and we expect Mike McCarron to be a great player because he is a "1st RD pick" ... but actually he is doing ok relative to where he was picked and he actually is in the same tier as DLR & Fucale & Lekhonen... but the latter 3 seem to get a free pass because they were picked a few spots later.

All I know is we BETTER DAMN WELL hit with the 3rd overall. It's a legitimate chance to get a building block type of player...and we need that sorely. Let Timmins do his thing with the 4 seconds. The past few drafts have been much better so I'm hoping that trend will continue and we will snag a goody with one of those...

 

[WinterLion]

I've asked the question elsewhere, with no result.

Let me try here. Is there anyone from your list or who is likely to be available in the 2nd round, who has top 6 potential as a C? If so, who?

Thanks in advance.

I like both Gustafsson and Olofson from Sweden. They both have good size and project to be C's. They will both probably go in the 20-55 range. Some people feel they lack offensive... they are both very good defensively and I feel have some untapped potential...

 

[HabbyGuy]

TOP 10 MOST UNDERRATED PLAYER OF THE 2018 NHL DRAFT

 

[NotProkofievian]

I like both Gustafsson and Olofson from Sweden. They both have good size and project to be C's. They will both probably go in the 20-55 range. Some people feel they lack offensive... they are both very good defensively and I feel have some untapped potential...

I have Gustafsson clearly ahead of Olofsson, despite the latter's advantage in tools, and it seems like the swedish national team coaches agree with me. Olofsson has, with a few exceptions, always left me wanting more in a game, and I think that was the feeling of everyone that watched the U18s. He has really smooth hands, a quick and deadly release, he's committed defensively, and has the vision to make some creative plays, but I've watched entire Allsvenskan games where he just took laps.

That was never the case with Gustafsson. I didn't even set out trying to scout him, I was just watching Brännström, and #27 in blue always caught my attention. He's not a pretty skater, but he's a dominant player.

 

[WinterLion]

I have Gustafsson clearly ahead of Olofsson, despite the latter's advantage in tools, and it seems like the swedish national team coaches agree with me. Olofsson has, with a few exceptions, always left me wanting more in a game, and I think that was the feeling of everyone that watched the U18s. He has really smooth hands, a quick and deadly release, he's committed defensively, and has the vision to make some creative plays, but I've watched entire Allsvenskan games where he just took laps.

That was never the case with Gustafsson. I didn't even set out trying to scout him, I was just watching Brännström, and #27 in blue always caught my attention. He's not a pretty skater, but he's a dominant player.

Yeah that's about how I feel.... except that every once in a while Olofsson does something that gives me hope... It will be interesting to see where the NHL scouts have them on draft day.

 

[WinterLion]

TOP 10 MOST UNDERRATED PLAYER OF THE 2018 NHL DRAFT

Fun. I think most of those guys are on the radar by now and will be picked high.

 

[Habs]

after reading all the scouting reports, I have no idea who I would draft this year. Best case scenario is they trade Max for another first round pick, and get Zadina and a C and if you could do this, which C do you get? .. or do you pass on a talent like Bouchard?

 

[the]

Just draft someone with character and a good attitude and I’ll be happy.

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

after reading all the scouting reports, I have no idea who I would draft this year. Best case scenario is they trade Max for another first round pick, and get Zadina and a C and if you could do this, which C do you get? .. or do you pass on a talent like Bouchard?

If we trade Max for a pick in the top 15 then maybe one of Veleno or Hayton is available.

Bouchard isn't great IMO.

 

[Habs]

If we trade Max for a pick in the top 15 then maybe one of Veleno or Hayton is available.

Bouchard isn't great IMO.

What don't you like about Bouchard?

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

What don't you like about Bouchard?

His foot speed, his defensive coverage, lack of defensive effort for a lot of the game and unwillingness to use his size to his advantage (ie lack of physical play around the net). His stats are great, I can't say otherwise, but I give some of the credit to him being more developed physically, it already being his 3rd year in the OHL and his insane usage in London (30+ minutes per game).

Basically he is a smart offensive player, makes good passes, has a great shot but his lack of speed in the NHL factored in with the fact that once he's in the NHL, he won't be bigger than his peers will result in his offence being less effective. And his defensive IQ and effort is far too low.

 

[Habs]

His foot speed, his defensive coverage, lack of defensive effort for a lot of the game and unwillingness to use his size to his advantage (ie lack of physical play around the net). His stats are great, I can't say otherwise, but I give some of the credit to him being more developed physically, it already being his 3rd year in the OHL and his insane usage in London (30+ minutes per game).

Basically he is a smart offensive player, makes good passes, has a great shot but his lack of speed in the NHL factored in with the fact that once he's in the NHL, he won't be bigger than his peers will result in his offence being less effective. And his defensive IQ and effort is far too low.

So, Sheldon Souray?

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

So, Sheldon Souray?

That actually isn't a bad comparison. I would say Souray definitely used his size more to his advantage though.

The NHL is also moving towards a much faster game so a player like that doesnt fit into the trend right now as much as a Hughes, Boqvist, Smith does. I would also say all there defensive awarenesses are better than Bouchard's.

From my viewings, a true best case scenario for Bouchard is John Carlson. A more recent draft pick that played a similar game and is taking a little longer to come into his own is Ryan Pulock. But Pulock's defensive game at the same level was better while his offence was a bit worse. Take that as you will.

 

[Fazkovsky]

I have a feeling Timmins is high on jack drury . I hope we. Can pick shafigulin and Beaudin and Olofsson

But zAdina is a no brainer

 

[MD thaivuN]

His foot speed, his defensive coverage, lack of defensive effort for a lot of the game and unwillingness to use his size to his advantage (ie lack of physical play around the net). His stats are great, I can't say otherwise, but I give some of the credit to him being more developed physically, it already being his 3rd year in the OHL and his insane usage in London (30+ minutes per game).

Basically he is a smart offensive player, makes good passes, has a great shot but his lack of speed in the NHL factored in with the fact that once he's in the NHL, he won't be bigger than his peers will result in his offence being less effective. And his defensive IQ and effort is far too low.

Is it fair to say he lacks explosiveness and is a mediocre athlete? That's what i feel from the kid. I don't see physical gifts that screams big upside as he keep maturing physically.

 

[Treb]

I have a feeling Timmins is high on jack drury . I hope we. Can pick shafigulin and Beaudin and Olofsson

But zAdina is a no brainer

We're obviously gonna pick Ryan Mcleod 3rd overall

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

Is it fair to say he lacks explosiveness and is a mediocre athlete? That's what i feel from the kid. I don't see physical gifts that screams big upside as he keep maturing physically.

He does lack explosiveness. Calling him a mediocre athlete is extreme but i would say he is close to his peak physical condition and doesnt have much room to develop physically. He's 6'2, 195 pounds. Already not the best skater so him gaining too much weight may not be the best skating wise.

 

[yianik]

I want them to go for impact players all through the draft. Where people may disagree with me is that I feel like a really good gritty 4th liner can be an impact player on a team... especially if he is signed to a good contract and developed in house.

As for the percentages, I think the biggest drop offs are way at the top of the draft... after that the drop-offs get smaller and smaller... really outside the top 10 you are statistically probably going to get an NHL regular.... not more. By the time you hit pick 20 you are looking at fringe NHLers on average... and that continues until about pick 100 more or less.

Here is a fun article about that:

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819

As fans we look by round and we expect Mike McCarron to be a great player because he is a "1st RD pick" ... but actually he is doing ok relative to where he was picked and he actually is in the same tier as DLR & Fucale & Lekhonen... but the latter 3 seem to get a free pass because they were picked a few spots later.

All I know is we BETTER DAMN WELL hit with the 3rd overall. It's a legitimate chance to get a building block type of player...and we need that sorely. Let Timmins do his thing with the 4 seconds. The past few drafts have been much better so I'm hoping that trend will continue and we will snag a goody with one of those...

I was actually familiar with the odds of drafting top 6 players, but for those who are not, a real eye opener. So the we must get 2 top 6 forwards with our 2nds kind of goes out the window.

Reality is if you add up the odds of our 7 picks in the top 102, after 3rdOA, we have a 50% chance of getting a top 6 forward or top 4 D. Those are good odds and TT better be on the right side of that 50/50. If out top pick pans out then walking away with 2 top players is huge for us.

Add in the guys on the team like Lehks , Juulsen , Mete and Scherbak etc, along with last year's draft, which actually does look promising, if we have another 2 or 3 top players out of that then we will be looking real solid. More than that ? Forget about it, beyond huge.

Need to keep the picks. Draft talent. Throw enough darts at skill and speed and we should be good in terms of our prospect pool.

 

[WinterLion]

I was actually familiar with the odds of drafting top 6 players, but for those who are not, a real eye opener. So the we must get 2 top 6 forwards with our 2nds kind of goes out the window.

Reality is if you add up the odds of our 7 picks in the top 102, after 3rdOA, we have a 50% chance of getting a top 6 forward or top 4 D. Those are good odds and TT better be on the right side of that 50/50. If out top pick pans out then walking away with 2 top players is huge for us.

Add in the guys on the team like Lehks , Juulsen , Mete and Scherbak etc, along with last year's draft, which actually does look promising, if we have another 2 or 3 top players out of that then we will be looking real solid. More than that ? Forget about it, beyond huge.

Need to keep the picks. Draft talent. Throw enough darts at skill and speed and we should be good in terms of our prospect pool.

Yes. It's all about having more darts. Bergevin has got us a bunch this year at least... better not trade them for an old grinder!

 

[MD thaivuN]

Yes. It's all about having more darts. Bergevin has got us a bunch this year at least... better not trade them for an old grinder!

I'm sure MB has learned. He'll just trade them for a younger grinder instead

 

[Bargainbin]

Just saw a Yahoo mock draft where zadina went 2 and then they had us taking Tkachuck at 3...

 

[Runner77]

Just saw a Yahoo mock draft where zadina went 2 and then they had us taking Tkachuck at 3...

Jokers to the left, clowns to the right, here I am, stuck with Svech.

 

[Scriptor]

I have a feeling Timmins is high on jack drury . I hope we. Can pick shafigulin and Beaudin and Olofsson

But zAdina is a no brainer

Hope MON gets to pick Calen Addison with one of its 2nd round picks. Certainly wouldn't trade up for him, but I would to pick McIsaac. So, to me, that's three 2nd rounders (likely our 35th, 38th and 59th) to get McIsaac and Addison on D. That's two Ds with attainable top-4 upside (and likely top-2 upside at best for McIssac). If we're really lucky, for some reason, Miller really slips and we nab him too in the 2nd round.

Hopefully, trading Pacioretty enables us to get a high enough draft pick and immediate help on the left side for our D. With that pick, we'd be able to pick Zadina at 3rd and Veleno as a C prospect that definitely has potential to become a strong, two-way, 2nd line C and a puck distributor on the PP. Some say he has the potential to be a Nugent-Hopkins type C and I say, only faster.

Veleno is an elite skater with strong puck-distribution abilities who isn't afraid of initiating contact either. I dont think that Kotkaniemi has an elite skill and Hayton has concerns over his skating.

Veleno would be my choice at C with a 10 - 15 first round pick if he is still on the board.

 

[Scriptor]

Just saw a Yahoo mock draft where zadina went 2 and then they had us taking Tkachuck at 3...

That's a draft I would definitely MOCK.