Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 5 (Warning in OP)

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Ryan Michaels

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The comparable to Marner is Patrick Kane. I've seen countless Maple Leafs fans bring up Patrick Kane off his ELC and say that Marner should get no more than the 11.09% cap hit over 5 years that Kane got. My argument is that because Matthews got overpaid by far more than his closest comparable, Steven Stamkos off his ELC, Marner is going to get overpaid as well. He's not going to play fair with his comparables because that's obviously not what Matthews' camp did.

There is no way using Patrick Kane out of his ELC as a comparable for Marner is a prevailing opinion amongst Leaf fans, hell, most of us will be happy at this point if he doesn't get Kane's post-dynasty contract. So right off the bat that's a false premise. The RFA landscape has changed there's no way around that. Matthews got slightly overpaid, considering the length of his contract... you know what I'm just going to stick with my first point, yeah I don't think I've even seen Patrick Kane's second contract used as a comparable. As for the rest, I just can't do this again, I am shocked how some of you can beat the same drum every day in these.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

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There is no way using Patrick Kane out of his ELC as a comparable for Marner is a prevailing opinion amongst Leaf fans, hell, most of us will be happy at this point if he doesn't get Kane's post-dynasty contract. So right off the bat that's a false premise. The RFA landscape has changed there's no way around that. Matthews got slightly overpaid, considering the length of his contract... you know what I'm just going to stick with my first point, yeah I don't think I've even seen Patrick Kane's second contract used as a comparable. As for the rest, I just can't do this again, I am shocked how some of you can beat the same drum every day in these.

You have NEVER seen somebody use ELC Patrick Kane as a comparable to Marner? Come on dude, don’t be dishonest here. It’s been floated around plenty in these threads.
 

biotk

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Taking advantage of the market inefficiency would be underpaying players like Matthews whose 5-on-5 scoring rates are elite and whose aggregate PP numbers are not as good. Dubas didn't take advantage of that whatsoever. He did quite the opposite and significantly overpaid Matthews.

Even based on just 5V5 P/60, he paid Matthews significantly more than Stamkos.

PlayerAgeAAVTermCap Hit %5V5 P/60 (Contract Year)5V5 P/60 (Career)Cap Hit %/P/60 (Contract Year)Cap Hit %/P/60 (Career)Cap Hit % Per P/60 (Average)
Auston Matthews21$11,634,000 5 Years14.63%2.762.595.30%5.65%5.47%
Steven Stamkos21$7,500,000 5 Years11.66%2.512.314.65%5.05%4.85%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Swing and a miss on that one.

I see that JTR has taken over another thread with his inane claims about Stamkos being the closest comparion for Matthews. Pretty sure that the Leafs understood that Matthews didn't play with a linemate along the lines of prime Martin St. Louis during his ELC.

Stamkos during his ELC:
At 5v5: TOI 3164; P/60 2.31
With St Louis: TOI 2066; P/60 2.64
W/out St Louis: TOI 1098; P/60 1.69 (drop when not playing with his best linemate: 36%)

Matthews during his ELC:
At 5v5: TOI 3110; P/60 2.59
With Nylander: TOI 1609; P/60 2.54
W/out Nylander: TOI 1501; P/60 2.64 (increase when not playing with his best linemate: 4%)

Marner during his ELC:
At 5v5: TOI 3350; P/60 2.38
W/Tavares: TOI 1060; P/60 3.00
W/out Tavares: TOI 2290; P/60 2.10 (drop when not playing with his best linemate: 30%)

Nylander during his ELC:
At 5v5: TOI 2464; P/60 2.05
W/Matthews: TOI 1343; P/60 2.32
W/out Matthews: TOI 1121; P/60 1.71 (drop when not playing with his best linemate: 26%)

Note - Nylander on his ELC, when not playing with Matthews, was more productive than Stamkos on his ELC when not playing with St Louis.
 
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BoredBrandonPridham

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There is no way using Patrick Kane out of his ELC as a comparable for Marner is a prevailing opinion amongst Leaf fans, hell, most of us will be happy at this point if he doesn't get Kane's post-dynasty contract. So right off the bat that's a false premise. The RFA landscape has changed there's no way around that. Matthews got slightly overpaid, considering the length of his contract... you know what I'm just going to stick with my first point, yeah I don't think I've even seen Patrick Kane's second contract used as a comparable. As for the rest, I just can't do this again, I am shocked how some of you can beat the same drum every day in these.

I’ve personally used Kane’s second contract as a distant floor for what Marner should get. And rightfully so.
 

Petrus

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It won't happen but yea if you give 8.5 for Aho you give 10.5+ for Marner since he's way better.

I would say marginally better. And Aho plays a position that is more diffcult.

I’ll take the 8.5m centre that produced slightly less on a Carolina team that didn’t have the forward depth of the Leafs.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

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I see that JTR has taken over another thread with his inane claims about Stamkos being the closest comparion for Matthews. Pretty sure that the Leafs understood that Matthews didn't play with a linemate along the lines of prime Martin St. Louis during his ELC.

Stamkos during his ELC:
At 5v5: TOI 3164; P/60 2.31
With St Louis: TOI 2066; P/60 2.64
W/out St Louis: TOI 1098; P/60 1.69 (drop when not playing with his best linemate: 36%)

Matthews during his ELC:
At 5v5: TOI 3110; P/60 2.59
With Nylander: TOI 1609; P/60 2.54
W/out Nylander: TOI 1501; P/60 2.64 (increase when not playing with his best linemate: 4%)

Marner during his ELC:
At 5v5: TOI 3350; P/60 2.38
W/Tavares: TOI 1060; P/60 3.00
W/out Tavares: TOI 2290; P/60 2.10 (drop when not playing with his best linemate: 30%)

Nylander during his ELC:
At 5v5: TOI 2464; P/60 2.05
W/Matthews: TOI 1343; P/60 2.32
W/out Matthews: TOI 1121; P/60 1.71 (drop when not playing with his best linemate: 26%)

Note - Nylander on his ELC, when not playing with Matthews, was more productive than Stamkos on his ELC when not playing with St Louis.

So the Maple Leafs decided to pay Matthews 25% more than a guy who won a Rocket Richard, and had two top-5 scoring finishes, because they understood that he deserved more? That’s not good management. In a league where guys get paid based on what they’ve done, you can’t go significantly overpaying guys because you feel like it. If you do, guys like Marner will want you to do the same for them.

Also, don’t you think that the comparisons with and without their best teammates are a bit disingenuous? For large portions of those time frames, the variable that you’re really comparing is their production in different seasons; not their production with different players.

For example, of the 1,098 minutes that Stamkos played without St. Louis, 889 of them came in his rookie year. You’re essentially comparing his performance in his rookie year to his performance in his other two seasons. The same goes for Marner, who was in his third year - his clear breakout year - in the only year where Tavares was a Maple Leaf. Using those kinds of comparisons leads you to a false narrative when you ignore the context.

Fun fact: once you ignore JoeThorntonsRooster it’s only 2 threads.

These threads would be far more civil and enjoyable without garbage comments like this.

I’ve personally used Kane’s second contract as a distant floor for what Marner should get. And rightfully so.

So, what do you think Marner gets? And why does he deserve more than Kane?
 

BoredBrandonPridham

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So the Maple Leafs decided to pay Matthews 25% more than a guy who won a Rocket Richard, and had two top-5 scoring finishes, because they understood that he deserved more? That’s not good management. In a league where guys get paid based on what they’ve done, you can’t go significantly overpaying guys because you feel like it. If you do, guys like Marner will want you to do the same for them.

Also, don’t you think that the comparisons with and without their best teammates are a bit disingenuous? For large portions of those time frames, the variable that you’re really comparing is their production in different seasons; not their production with different players.

For example, of the 1,098 minutes that Stamkos played without St. Louis, 889 of them came in his rookie year. You’re essentially comparing his performance in his rookie year to his performance in his other two seasons. The same goes for Marner, who was in his third year - his clear breakout year - in the only year where Tavares was a Maple Leaf. Using those kinds of comparisons leads you to a false narrative when you ignore the context.



These threads would be far more civil and enjoyable without garbage comments like this.



So, what do you think Marner gets? And why does he deserve more than Kane?

Prerequisites from you to discuss production and contract comparables:

- apology for lumping me into “Dubas apologists” and thus discarding my use of p1/60
- read the EW blog post on their inputs to their cap projection model that you brought up as reference point, note use of primary production

Then we can continue.
 

Dekes For Days

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I don't have a right to be in a thread on the main board about a player I've been following since junior? Who has been rumored to be a candidate for OS from my team?

I don't think the guy that I blocked has any more right to be here than me.
No, you don't have a right to be in a thread where your only purpose thus far has been to misrepresent what you've said in the past, misrepresent the facts now, contradict your own position and valuations, and then refuse to answer any questions when called out on it; evidently blocking anybody that won't let you spread false information uncontested.

It's pretty unfortunate that you couldn't just realize your mistake, apologize, and move on.
 

Rants Mulliniks

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Is this Nylander? If so, that doesn’t really prove anything, because he was an RFA and most comparables here might have been UFAs.

Interesting. So following that logic, you believe David Pastrnak was GROSSLY overpaid compared to Nylander. In Pastrnak's 2 seasons preceding his contract, he was the 19th highest producing player at his position yet signed the 6th highest paying contract in the league at his position, including all UFA aged players at his position.
 
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Dekes For Days

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In a league where guys get paid based on what they’ve done, you can’t go significantly overpaying guys because you feel like it. If you do, guys like Marner will want you to do the same for them.
Oh reeeeeallly?

Where were you in the whole discussion about Marner getting 9m after a 69 point season, and that affecting other contracts then? You conveniently disappeared until you came back to take shots at me and boost up the guy arguing against your own position.

I assume you agree that paying Marner 9m last offseason after a 69 point season would have been beyond stupid, right?

Also, don’t you think that the comparisons with and without their best teammates are a bit disingenuous? Using those kinds of comparisons leads you to a false narrative when you ignore the context.
Oh, so context matters now, when the numbers don't say what you want them to say.

Maybe, just maybe, having consistent elite production throughout an ELC regardless of linemates and role is an important aspect of Matthews that is ignored when people only look at Marner's production in 1 year with a linemate many times better than anybody Matthews has played with to determine his contract valuation.

These threads would be far more civil and enjoyable without garbage comments like this.
I definitely know one thing this thread would be far more civil without.
 
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FMichael

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The fact that Matthews was heavily overpaid next to his closest comparables means that Marner will probably be heavily overpaid next to them as well.



But they weren't complaining that he didn't give a discount. They were complaining that he was overpaid. Your representation of their comments is dishonest. The opinions were differing but they were mostly negative.



Fair enough. And I might as well stop arguing it, since it seems that most reasonable and honest posters agree with me on this, just to different degrees. Some say it was only by $0.5-$1M but either way, we can generally agree that it was an overpayment and that Marner's camp will want the same.
For me it's not so much that they're 'overpaid' - it's more of an issue where as RFA whom are fresh off their ELC are getting massive $$$ without really proving much.

Maybe it's me being old, and crotchedy, but I seem to recall in years past most players had 4 to 6 years of NHL hockey under their belt before they got their big payday.
 

The Hanging Jowl

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So, what do you think Marner gets? And why does he deserve more than Kane?

Wouldn't you agree the RFA market has changed since 2011 when Kane signed his deal coming off ELC? And it's not just how the Leafs are overpaying, RFAs across the league are getting paid far more as a percentage of total cap in the last few years.
 
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FMichael

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Wouldn't you agree the RFA market has changed since 2011 when Kane signed his deal coming off ELC? And it's not just how the Leafs are overpaying, RFAs across the league are getting paid far more as a percentage of total cap in the last few years.
Agreed - however I'm sure Dubas is getting rival GMs worked up...I doubt Tkachuk, or Laine will want to sign with their clubs until Dubas backs the dump truck full of $$$ up to the Marner household.

All I gotta say is that I'm glad 'Stone Cold' Stevie Yzerman is running things in Detroit these days.
 
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WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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Interesting. So following that logic, you believe David Pastrnak was GROSSLY overpaid compared to Nylander. In Pastrnak's 2 seasons preceding his contract, he was the 19th highest producing player at his position yet signed the 6th highest paying contract in the league at his position, including all UFA aged players at his position.

It's almost as if the contract year for an ELC player is way more important than anything they do before that. In

Pastrnak had 34g 70p in 75gp (37g 77p pace) in his contract year (5th among RWs)
Nylander had 20g 61p in 82gp

Pastrnak's goal per game was 85% higher than Nylander's, and his points per game was 25% higher.

Pastrnak got paid 6.7m
Nylander got paid 7.0m

Literally the only time the performance outside of contract year matters is if a player had a great first / second year but flopped in their contract year (like what we're seeing with Laine and what we've seen with guys like Kuznetsov and MacKinnon).

But look at the deals of recent RFA's who had at relatively poor year before breaking out in their contract year:
Draisaitl
Pastrnak
Larkin
Ehlers
Barkov
Scheifele
Tarasenko

All of those guys were paid based for what they did in their contract year, not what they did in any years prior.
 

Rants Mulliniks

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It's almost as if the contract year for an ELC player is way more important than anything they do before that. In

Pastrnak had 34g 70p in 75gp (37g 77p pace) in his contract year (5th among RWs)
Nylander had 20g 61p in 82gp

Pastrnak's goal per game was 85% higher than Nylander's, and his points per game was 25% higher.

Pastrnak got paid 6.7m
Nylander got paid 7.0m

Literally the only time the performance outside of contract year matters is if a player had a great first / second year but flopped in their contract year (like what we're seeing with Laine and what we've seen with guys like Kuznetsov and MacKinnon).

But look at the deals of recent RFA's who had at relatively poor year before breaking out in their contract year:
Draisaitl
Pastrnak
Larkin
Ehlers
Barkov
Scheifele
Tarasenko

All of those guys were paid based for what they did in their contract year, not what they did in any years prior.

It's great that you are shifting the goal posts of the discussion I was having. I can safely assume you are a believer in contracts for guys like Clarkson. I mean, the gist of the argument here is that prudent or "fair" investment is to base one's decisions off of a single year versus multiple years.
 
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hullsy47

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We all know Marner will sign with the Leafs. They will find a way.
well it's pretty obvious no GM is giving up 4 first rounders
none of them will get that offer
now u may see a trade but never a deal for 4 first rounder s
none are McDavid
marner like laine point and rantanen are in a corner
actually AHO might have got the best deal
 
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