Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 5 (Warning in OP)

[andora]

Marner is probably not 3.5m (50%) better than Nylander in the future. Not because Marner is bad, but because Nylander is still a very good hockey player. (Don't @ me)

Matthews is well over 1 million better than Marner.

I'd put Marner square in the middle between the two in an ideal world. 9.5m x 5, 10.5 would need at least 7 years term.

fair enough, and i'm not arguing or disagreeing but i would like to ask - where you say Matthews is 'well' over a million better, why?

 

[RoadWarrior]

fair enough, and i'm not arguing or disagreeing but i would like to ask - where you say Matthews is 'well' over a million better, why?

Matthews scores more goals and plays center which is a more important position.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

I would have agreed with you after Nylander's, but we may be witnessing a bit of a reversal - look at guys like Teravainen and Meier who have helped to bring the bar back down after the Nylander deal seemed to solidify the paradigm change.

Lol, this is ridiculous.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Good send us the first four picks. Isles first will be nice.

Would you trade Marner straight up for:

Simon Holmstrom (19th overall 2019)
Oliver Wahlstrom (11th overall 2018)
Erik Brannstrom (15th Overall to 2017 to Vegas)
Kieffer Bellows (19 Overall 2016)

 

[4thline]

Here's another controversial one- for true stars (that establish it on ELC) the difference between UFA and RFA deals has been grossly exaggerated
(In the case of back diving deals I truncated averages at the major drop off point)

2001 1st overall Kovalchuk 16.41 x 5 --> 14.2 x 10
2002 1st overall Nash- 13.85 x 5 --> 13.73 x 8
2003 2nd overall Staal 10.34 x 3 --> 14.55 x 7
2004 1st overall Ovechkin 16.82 x 13 --> N/A
2004 2nd overall Malkin 15.34 x 5 --> 14.77 x 8
2005 1st overall Crosby 17.3 x 5 --> 15.7 x 9
2006 3rd overall Toews 11.09 x 5 --> 15.22 x 8
2007 1st overall Kane 11.09 x 5 -->15.22 x 8
2008 1st overall Stamkos 11.66 x 5 --> 11.64x 8

 

[Seanaconda]

Here's another controversial one- for true stars (that establish it on ELC) the difference between UFA and RFA deals has been grossly exaggerated
(In the case of back diving deals I truncated averages at the major drop off point)

2001 1st overall Kovalchuk 16.41 x 5 --> 14.2 x 10
2002 1st overall Nash- 13.85 x 5 --> 13.73 x 8
2003 2nd overall Staal 10.34 x 3 --> 14.55 x 7
2004 1st overall Ovechkin 16.82 x 13 --> N/A
2004 2nd overall Malkin 15.34 x 5 --> 14.77 x 8
2005 1st overall Crosby 17.3 x 5 --> 15.7 x 9
2006 3rd overall Toews 11.09 x 5 --> 15.22 x 8
2007 1st overall Kane 11.09 x 5 -->11.64 x 8
2008 1st overall Stamkos 11.66 x 5 --> 15.22 x 8

But the numbers are bigger now so it's scary! .

Plus those couple years were not many of the guys on elcs played like stars kinda made people forget

 

[andora]

Matthews scores more goals and plays center which is a more important position.

Is it this cut-and-dry though? I'm just asking because marner's career assist totals is 75% of Matthews career points

Believe me when I say I'm not going to say this next piece trying to be antagonistic or start anything because I'm honestly not... But what fancy stats can we look at to show how valuable Matthews is on his side of Center Ice showing the true value of being a Center... only one I know by memory is that he has been over 50% on faceoffs for the past two years which is good but that is throughout the 200 feet on the ice

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

And he was 5th in scoring among RWs in his contract year. Obviously, teams place some additional weight on the contract year. It’s best to take both into account.

Being 5th over 33% of the sample size and getting paid as 6th best doesn't mysteriously make your deal undervalue while being 14th over 67% of the sample size and getting paid as 10th mysteriously makes you grossly overpaid, as is the HF narrative.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Would you trade Marner straight up for:

Simon Holmstrom (19th overall 2019)
Oliver Wahlstrom (11th overall 2018)
Erik Brannstrom (15th Overall to 2017 to Vegas)
Kieffer Bellows (19 Overall 2016)

Oh if we're cherry picking arbitrary draft spots, can we do that with trades too?

Marner + scrap for Trouba, Stone and O'Rielly.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Are you trying to say that Clarkson's contract year was good? He scored at a 40p pace and was paid 8.2% of the cap, 5.25M over 7 years lol.

He was paid for the year before (30g 48 points), which was clearly a mistake, as he was very obviously carried by Elias and an unsustainable sh% for a player of his skill. Adjusting for sh% would have him at 20g. Adjusting for being carried by Elias would probably have had him at 10g.

The Clarkson contract is one of the reasons you shouldn't put much weight into previous years. Evaluate the play from their contract season, take into account things like PDO and linemates, and you'll do fine.

No Clarkson's contract was stupid and I said so from day one. Any contract that weights heavily to one year (specifically the year before the contract) is a high risk. In Clarkson's case the immediate year before was partial and he put up very similar numbers to the year prior. Problem is the entire sample before. Not unlike the RFA you speak of. You take a big risk.

Being 5th over 33% of the sample size and getting paid as 6th best doesn't mysteriously make your deal undervalue while being 14th over 67% of the sample size and getting paid as 10th mysteriously makes you grossly overpaid, as is the HF narrative.

 

[ER89]

Would you trade Marner straight up for:

Simon Holmstrom (19th overall 2019)
Oliver Wahlstrom (11th overall 2018)
Erik Brannstrom (15th Overall to 2017 to Vegas)
Kieffer Bellows (19 Overall 2016)

I didn't say I would trade him for their past four picks.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I didn't say I would trade him for their past four picks.

You think adding Mitch Marner makes them a worse team?

Because you're likely getting some comparable quality players with those mid to late 1st rounders.

 

[Martin Skoula]

You think adding Mitch Marner makes them a worse team?

Because you're likely getting some comparable quality players with those mid to late 1st rounders.

Maybe a team that took 3 busts at 5th overall isn't the best example for quality drafting.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

No Clarkson's contract was stupid and I said so from day one. Any contract that weights heavily to one year (specifically the year before the contract) is a high risk. In Clarkson's case the immediate year before was partial and he put up very similar numbers to the year prior. Problem is the entire sample before. Not unlike the RFA you speak of. You take a big risk.

Being 5th over 33% of the sample size and getting paid as 6th best doesn't mysteriously make your deal undervalue while being 14th over 67% of the sample size and getting paid as 10th mysteriously makes you grossly overpaid, as is the HF narrative.

Like I just showed, the first 2 years of a players ELC period have almost no bearing on their contract value unless the player regressed in their contract year.

I don't know why you keep talking about anything other than the contract year for Pastrnak. They are completely irrelevant.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Maybe a team that took 3 busts at 5th overall isn't the best example for quality drafting.

Out of curiosity,

Which picks AFTER those aforementioned picks would you have taken in hindsight? (Keep your selections within 5 picks of the draftees, as scouting reports and consensus type picks are kind of important for this context).



Just wanna know which 4 players you think are worth more than Marner.