Speculation: Mitch Marner #14 - The Gentle Art of Making Enemies

[Conspiracy Theorist]

With Matthews shoulder injury issues in 2 outta his 3 seasons - I'm not sure if many teams would be willing to give up that much in the form of an offer sheet, but I've been wrong before.

Issues with Marner is not surprising considering what he had accomplished thus far in his young career...Dubas has his work cut out for himself.

I think Dubass feared offer sheets for Matthews.

 

[FMichael]

I think Dubass feared offer sheets for Matthews.

It's certainly possible that this was the case, but to give Matthews more than Tavares...That was just a bad move by Dubas IMHO.

 

[FMichael]

No, he wouldn't. Tampa has a track record of signing their players for below-market value. I don't think Marner will be happy with Point's contract.

I know this is redundant, but it really does give some teams here in 'Murica an advantage when it comes to tax breaks.

 

[Hunter368]

Not overly shocked if true that he turned it down, if we also believe AM wanted an even bigger deal if he went 7-8 years.....makes some sense that Marner would do the same.

 

[gabeliscious]

It's certainly possible that this was the case, but to give Matthews more than Tavares...That was just a bad move by Dubas IMHO.

as much as i love tavares and would sign him 10/10 times if given the opportunity, as soon as the leafs signed him the prices of the others went up imo.

tavares' contract puts $11 million as a starting point for matthews and marner. if that contract wasnt there, matthews would still have set a new precedent with a $10 million x 5 years. Eichel got $10.5 x 7 years so matthews would still have had a contract to satisfy his ego. with tavares at $11, the contract was always going to be over $11 imo.

marners argument is he is as good as matthews and has put up more points then matthews. even if you pro rate matthews to have actually playing 82 games marner would still be similar. imo that is a valid point for marner.

if dubas gave both nylander and matthews 5 year deals, i think it is important for him to act consistant and fair towards marner (not saying he isnt). imo a 5 year deal makes sense because that is what nylander and matthews both got. the issue then becomes the cap hit and the price. i dont see marner budging off of argument he is the same value as matthews so the argument becomes how much is the premium for center vs wing and goals vs assists.

i wouldnt be shocked to see marner end up with $10.5-11 million x 5 years. it is more term then he wants and less term then toronto wants. having them all as ufa at the same time is not a big deal imo. if they are going to leave for more money they are going to leave. the difference of a year or two wont change that.

with some of the nutty numbers circulating on 3 year deals, $11 million for 5 years is better then $9.5/10 for 3

 

[ToDavid]

He should of made an example of Nylander then. Marner is following the path his peers (Nylander, AM) paved for him and Dubas laid that foundation. He sure can make an example out of Marner but the leafs will be a worse team and what's he really accomplishing? A hard contract negotiation with the next line of RFA's like Liljegren and Kapanen?

Kapanen was signed this summer and Liljegren hasn't even burned a single ELC year yet. Dermott will be our next notable RFA signing.

 

[7even]

I hear Switzerland is beautiful, and you can live well on $500k per year.

 

[Leaf Fans]

how can we even afford it?, when Hyman and Dermott are on IR its doable to run a 22 man roster but when everyone is healthy the best I can do with Marner at 11 is a 20 man roster

Perhaps the experts can do better?

 

[hockeeyyy]

Hilarious people are trying to spin Matthews' contract as a net negative for Dubas. At the time he signed that contract, the cap percentage was objectively below the net value of what Malkin and Crosby signed at the time back in late 2000s; five year structure, similar cap hits.

Matthews would have been offered a chance to sign an offer sheet from multiple teams. Of this, there is no doubt. You don't leave a kid like Matthews out in the RFA landscape and risk an offer sheet. He's worth four first round picks -- that is a no-brainer as well.

Dubas screwed up once so far, and that was his loyalty to his players taking priority over net worth -- Sparks over McElhinney. Even Nylander's contract looks fantastic now, assuming he gets back on track with his career progression arc so far.

So all that being said, Marner is absolutely in the wrong here. He has little leverage, and whatever leverage he had was obliterated when it came out that he wanted a $15,000,000 third year on a bridge. That's non-negotiable and never going to happen. He'll be sitting on his butt for the season if he doesn't move off of it.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I hear Switzerland is beautiful, and you can live well on $500k per year.

It is beautiful. I am sure you can live well anywhere on 500k per year.

 

[The Assclown]

Marner is a fantastic player for our team. He’s a heart and soul guy that puts up big numbers that obviously helps us win... but if these rumours of turning down 11m/7yrs are true, trade him.

Get that premier defensive piece and sprinkle the roster with depth.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Hilarious people are trying to spin Matthews' contract as a net negative for Dubas. At the time he signed that contract, the cap percentage was objectively below the net value of what Malkin and Crosby signed at the time back in late 2000s; five year structure, similar cap hits.

Matthews would have been offered a chance to sign an offer sheet from multiple teams. Of this, there is no doubt. You don't leave a kid like Matthews out in the RFA landscape and risk an offer sheet. He's worth four first round picks -- that is a no-brainer as well.

Dubas screwed up once so far, and that was his loyalty to his players taking priority over net worth -- Sparks over McElhinney. Even Nylander's contract looks fantastic now, assuming he gets back on track with his career progression arc so far.

So all that being said, Marner is absolutely in the wrong here. He has little leverage, and whatever leverage he had was obliterated when it came out that he wanted a $15,000,000 third year on a bridge. That's non-negotiable and never going to happen. He'll be sitting on his butt for the season if he doesn't move off of it.

Both Matthews and Nylander have good contracts. I am sure Marner and his agent will negotiate one too.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Depends how much spare time @Dekes For Days and @JoeThorntonsRooster have on their hands.

A bit nasty, but I like it...

 

[Marshy]

People saying Marner deserves Matthews money relative to term - while that's their opinion and they have a right to it - the Leafs don't feel that way and that's all that matters. Full stop.

Now what recourse does Marner have if he doesn't want the Leafs best offer? Which team will trade for him for the chance to give him the Matthews deal? Assuming there is even a trade to be made that will satisfy the Leafs.

That is why I think he signs one of the offers he's presented before Oct 2. Because to not do so would almost certainly ensure he winds up on a team he'd prefer not to be on for no more money than the Leafs offered.

 

[Dragao6]

as much as i love tavares and would sign him 10/10 times if given the opportunity, as soon as the leafs signed him the prices of the others went up imo.

tavares' contract puts $11 million as a starting point for matthews and marner. if that contract wasnt there, matthews would still have set a new precedent with a $10 million x 5 years. Eichel got $10.5 x 7 years so matthews would still have had a contract to satisfy his ego. with tavares at $11, the contract was always going to be over $11 imo.

marners argument is he is as good as matthews and has put up more points then matthews. even if you pro rate matthews to have actually playing 82 games marner would still be similar. imo that is a valid point for marner.

if dubas gave both nylander and matthews 5 year deals, i think it is important for him to act consistant and fair towards marner (not saying he isnt). imo a 5 year deal makes sense because that is what nylander and matthews both got. the issue then becomes the cap hit and the price. i dont see marner budging off of argument he is the same value as matthews so the argument becomes how much is the premium for center vs wing and goals vs assists.

i wouldnt be shocked to see marner end up with $10.5-11 million x 5 years. it is more term then he wants and less term then toronto wants. having them all as ufa at the same time is not a big deal imo. if they are going to leave for more money they are going to leave. the difference of a year or two wont change that.

with some of the nutty numbers circulating on 3 year deals, $11 million for 5 years is better then $9.5/10 for 3

Yah well 11M got you almost 50 goals (which marner benefits looking at his points total) shut down one of the best centers in the game in playoffs.
When Matthew's hits 50 goals then what? Mitch can even hit 30 and was nothing in playoffs...TRADE
SHIULD HAVE GOTTEN Pk For nothing

 

[WTFMAN99]

People saying Marner deserves Matthews money relative to term - while that's their opinion and they have a right to it - the Leafs don't feel that way and that's all that matters. Full stop.

Now what recourse does Marner have if he doesn't want the Leafs best offer? Which team will trade for him for the chance to give him the Matthews deal? Assuming there is even a trade to be made that will satisfy the Leafs.

That is why I think he signs one of the offers he's presented before Oct 2. Because to not do so would almost certainly ensure he winds up on a team he'd prefer not to be on for no more money than the Leafs offered.

Also understanding that generally speaking, there is a premium on centres vs wingers, plus goal scoring tends to hold more value too.

 

[DueDiligence]

Hilarious people are trying to spin Matthews' contract as a net negative for Dubas. At the time he signed that contract, the cap percentage was objectively below the net value of what Malkin and Crosby signed at the time back in late 2000s; five year structure, similar cap hits.

Matthews would have been offered a chance to sign an offer sheet from multiple teams. Of this, there is no doubt. You don't leave a kid like Matthews out in the RFA landscape and risk an offer sheet. He's worth four first round picks -- that is a no-brainer as well.

Dubas screwed up once so far, and that was his loyalty to his players taking priority over net worth -- Sparks over McElhinney. Even Nylander's contract looks fantastic now, assuming he gets back on track with his career progression arc so far.

So all that being said, Marner is absolutely in the wrong here. He has little leverage, and whatever leverage he had was obliterated when it came out that he wanted a $15,000,000 third year on a bridge. That's non-negotiable and never going to happen. He'll be sitting on his butt for the season if he doesn't move off of it.

You come across as Dubas's agent!
Matthews might have been given an offer sheet but maybe not. His contract is very player friendly.
Nylander's contract is fantastic for the player not the team. He needs to really up his game to be a good deal for the Leafs.
Who says Marner wanted $15,000.000 on a bridge deal ? Pure speculation and I doubt that number was ever mentioned. Marner deserves a contract close to what Matthews got. Both sides are "wrong" and need to give a little to make it happen.

 

[Video Coach]

3 years $27 million
AAV $9M

YR1 - $8M ($7M SB, $1M salary)
YR2 - $7M ($6M SB, $1M salary)
YR3 - $12M ($11M SB, $1m salary)

Term is not going to be 5 years because it's a direct comparison to Matthews and Mitch's camp will never agree Mitch is not worth as much as Matthews.
Won't be 7-8 years because Mitch's camp will want too much in terms of career projection, salary cap inflation projection, etc

3 years is a good term. He'll have 1 year of RFA status left and Leafs will be forced to qualify him at $12M+. At that point he either signs a long term or he doesn't. But assuming he signs, it allows Matthews to sign for more than him 2 years later, without it really being a slight to Mitch.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Well, this is how I'm feeling after the ludicrous information coming out over the last 24h.
3 year bridge ending with a 12+m QO for year 4? Shoot me

Oh boy, that's fantastic. That saves the Leafs the pain and suffering of him walking right into UFA. Basically ties Marner to the Leafs for as long as the Leafs think he's a top player. I'd sign that 3 year + 1 in a heartbeat.

It's the Matthews contract that's terrible. From ELC to a contract that takes him straight to UFA. Pass go, collect your MASSIVE money, then go to UFA. Yikes.

 

[TML1967]

Oh boy, that's fantastic. That saves the Leafs the pain and suffering of him walking right into UFA. Basically ties Marner to the Leafs for as long as the Leafs think he's a top player. I'd sign that 3 year + 1 in a heartbeat.

It's the Matthews contract that's terrible. From ELC to a contract that takes him straight to UFA. Pass go, collect your MASSIVE money, then go to UFA. Yikes.

So year 4, marners cap hit is 12+m. And he then becomes a FA.
Screw that

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

According to dDreger a 3 year extension is now the focus, at this point I don't care if it's 3 years, 5 years, 6 years, 7 years 7 years or 8 years I just want this done so we can see what this team is REALLY capable of because we didn't see that last year with Nylander out until December

 

[Riellyfan04]

marner is just being selfish now. offer the 11 m per for 7 years and if he doesnt accept let him sit.....

 

[mondo3]

marner is just being selfish now. offer the 11 m per for 7 years and if he doesnt accept let him sit.....

If he does sit out the year and play in Europe, what's the max money he could earn?

 

[KlefDown]

skip this year and see how many points he can put up in the swiss league

I agree. Put up big numbers there and prove to leafs that he's worth the 5 year 13 mill. then off to UFA and Florida he goes

 

[tbcwpg]

Is this a sign that Marner wants out of Toronto, or is that just a Laine thing?