Mike Hoffman | Part II UPDATE: Off to Arbitration

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Do Make Say Think

& Yet & Yet
Jun 26, 2007
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Our hockeybuzz guy (who is pretty good) claims that Hoffman's production wad noticeably worse in the top 6 and that most of it came when he was a bottom 6 guy on a line with Stone and Lazar

How do the more stat-savy posters on here feel about that assertion?
 

MiscBrah

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Mar 16, 2012
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Our hockeybuzz guy (who is pretty good) claims that Hoffman's production wad noticeably worse in the top 6 and that most of it came when he was a bottom 6 guy on a line with Stone and Lazar

How do the more stat-savy posters on here feel about that assertion?

"They might also argue that Hoffman's best production (per game) came while playing on a line with Mark Stone and Curtis Lazar earlier in the season, and his production actually went down in a top 6 role."

He only played with Stone/Lazar at the beginning of the year. If we go up to the day Maclean got canned he had 12 points in 24 games.

Before Cameron

24 games 12 P = 0.5 PPG

After Cameron

55 games 36 P = 0.65 PPG

:dunno:

I didn't look up the exact time he stopped playing with Stone/Lazar, I just know it was around then.
 

operasen

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Apr 27, 2004
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I'd be curious what he'd do with Pageau & Lazar. Lots of speed and savvy in that trio. Michalek played pretty well with Zibanejad, and if he's on the roster (and I presume he will be), maybe he works that with Ryan. I think MacArthur is set with Turris and I'd assume Stone.

MacArthur - Turris - Stone
Michalek - Zibanejad - Ryan
Hoffman - Pageau - Lazar

Prince - Smith - Chiasson
Neil

after deadline, if not before, (some of Michalek, Neil, Smith, Chiasson), add Puempel, Paul, Dzingel
 

BonkTastic

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Nov 9, 2010
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Our hockeybuzz guy (who is pretty good) claims that Hoffman's production wad noticeably worse in the top 6 and that most of it came when he was a bottom 6 guy on a line with Stone and Lazar

How do the more stat-savy posters on here feel about that assertion?


I ran some very preliminary numbers.


Hoffman played 35 games this season where he got OVER 15 mins per game, and in those games he produced: 12g-11a-23pts
* 0.34 gpg
* 0.31 apg
* 0.66 ppg

Hoffman played 44 games this season where he got UNDER 15 mins per game, and in those games he produced: 16g-9a-25pts
* 0.36 gpg
* 0.21 apg
* 0.57 ppg

So technically he did score goals at a higher rate when played under 15 mins/ night. He did benefit from getting more assists when he was over the 15 min mark, though.
 

UnHappyDude

Fire Dorion
Jan 11, 2011
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The guys a stud. Just pay him. So clutch. Much speed and goals. Mega possession. Who are we going to replace him with? no one thats who. 27 goals in his rookie season! The only thing he has to work on this offseason his smiling more.
 

Caeldan

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Jun 21, 2008
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That Yost is pretty pointless, comparing him to a bunch of players who aren't comparables for arbitration...
Has someone actually compiled the list of comparable players (ie with say >20 goals or >40 points) and what their contracts are?

I believe that while Zibby and Stone give an obvious clue where Ottawa thinks Hoffman fits in salary-wise, they're not comparable for arbitration purposes because they didn't have arbitration rights. Michalek again stats wise is comparable but he signed as a UFA so not useable in arbitration.
 

Sun God Nika

Palestine <3.
Apr 22, 2013
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That Yost is pretty pointless, comparing him to a bunch of players who aren't comparables for arbitration...
Has someone actually compiled the list of comparable players (ie with say >20 goals or >40 points) and what their contracts are?

I believe that while Zibby and Stone give an obvious clue where Ottawa thinks Hoffman fits in salary-wise, they're not comparable for arbitration purposes because they didn't have arbitration rights. Michalek again stats wise is comparable but he signed as a UFA so not useable in arbitration.

but when Milo signed his contract he hadn't scored more than 17 goals in the previous 2 seasons. Hoffman is actually coming off a season that has not been discounted by a poor season which helps his case, and might justify him making more than Milo.
 

Caeldan

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Jun 21, 2008
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but when Milo signed his contract he hadn't scored more than 17 goals in the previous 2 seasons. Hoffman is actually coming off a season that has not been discounted by a poor season which helps his case, and might justify him making more than Milo.

One poor season though doesn't offset a career of good seasons, plus he's just consistently been a 0.5ppg player -- just hampered by injuries. That's what buoyed up MM9, that and the fact he was the cap floor contract. Regardless though it's not comparable for arbitration purposes.

Looking at last year's results.. guys like Colborne and Kreider got sub-3M contracts for ~40 point seasons. Zucarello got 3.5M, and Frolik 3.3M. ROR was the outlier with his 6M deal and Brassard was 5M but some UFA years out of it as well.

Not sure about the comparables for this year - but UFA contracts I believe were depressed compared to last year's equivalent signings.
 

BonkTastic

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Has someone actually compiled the list of comparable players (ie with say >20 goals or >40 points) and what their contracts are?

Chris Kreider might be the closest comparable off the top of my head without much research. He put up 17-20-37 in only 60 games in 2013/14 and was arbitration eligible last summer, and he ended up signing only a few hours before his hearing for ~$2.5mil per year/ 2 years.

I'd say Hoffman is looking for AT LEAST what Kreider got.
 

BigBush*

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Our hockeybuzz guy (who is pretty good) claims that Hoffman's production wad noticeably worse in the top 6 and that most of it came when he was a bottom 6 guy on a line with Stone and Lazar

How do the more stat-savy posters on here feel about that assertion?
Stone is our best forward, it's no wonder that Hoffmans production was best when he was playing on a line with him.
Turris
Michalek
Hoffman
Lazar
All thoae guys probably also had their best production while playing on Stones line
 

Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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topshelf15

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Stone is our best forward, it's no wonder that Hoffmans production was best when he was playing on a line with him.
Turris
Michalek
Hoffman
Lazar
All thoae guys probably also had their best production while playing on Stones line
Yep and i would trade 3 hoffmans, to get another one just like him for the 2nd line LW slot :D
 

Caeldan

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Jun 21, 2008
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Nyquists deal also has a UFA year or two in it as well.

If Hoffman is asking 4M+ he's out to lunch unless he's hoping for a 5y or longer deal at that price.
 

operasen

Registered User
Apr 27, 2004
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Nyquists deal also has a UFA year or two in it as well.

If Hoffman is asking 4M+ he's out to lunch unless he's hoping for a 5y or longer deal at that price.

I'm hoping its more around Lee at 3.5. 4 X 3.5 and its good for both sides. Tradable if it does not work. Eats two years of UFA. Still has time to get his payday contract if he earns it. He will not be another Greening in any case.
 

Cosmix

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With Lee and Nyquist as comparables, Hoffman's deal will be set in that range. Murray should just do it. If Hoffman is looking for more than 4 @ 4M, then he might not make his case. 4@4 is pretty fair right now.

Pretty interesting when you add in the analytics

http://www.tsn.ca/sens-hoffman-has-good-case-for-arbitration-1.331024

Yes, the analytics are very interesting. I expect a one year deal so the team can assess another season in the NHL and then a longer term contract based on performance over two seasons. I hope Hoffman does very well next season and hits the jackpot! That would mean Ottawa would have a high scoring winger!

I do not blame Hoffman for going to arbitration; nor do I chastise ROR, as the teams have a history of screwing the players and I think the players deserve the higher portion of revenues they are getting now. Plus the RFA and Entry Level contract players are restricted in what they can earn by the NHL-PA contract, so using the limited powers for players in that contract to get higher salaries is not wrong in my view.
 

Ice-Tray

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I'm hoping its more around Lee at 3.5. 4 X 3.5 and its good for both sides. Tradable if it does not work. Eats two years of UFA. Still has time to get his payday contract if he earns it. He will not be another Greening in any case.

No long term deals! The whole point is to see if he can do it again next year, and THEN pay him.

So many people rail so hard on 'extra years' for Neil, Phillips, Greening, Michalek, and yet won't whole-heartedly support Murray when he tries to see what he has first before handing out years.

The plan is clearly to compensate Hoffman based on last year's production, for one year, and if he repeats, he'll get cash and term. That is fair to me. Obviously Hoffman would like longer job security, but he doesn't have the leverage in the end to push that if Murray stands pat, though of course it's worth a try to push before the hearing and see if he can convince Murray.

Murray could change is his plan though and go longer term depending on negotiations, but since the risk for the team goes up, the price would have to come down.

Realistically, Murray wants one year, won't do two, and doesn't want to do more. Hoffman likely wants 2 or more. We shall see what happens, but money will be the factor that changes back and forth to compensate for more or less term.
 

Caeldan

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I'm hoping its more around Lee at 3.5. 4 X 3.5 and its good for both sides. Tradable if it does not work. Eats two years of UFA. Still has time to get his payday contract if he earns it. He will not be another Greening in any case.

Agreed. 3.5Mx4y would be perfect imo. Right in the sweet spot for what he's worth.
It's not 'long term', and we don't have to go through this whole song and dance next season either.
 

playasRus

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Mar 21, 2009
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I'm hoping its more around Lee at 3.5. 4 X 3.5 and its good for both sides. Tradable if it does not work. Eats two years of UFA. Still has time to get his payday contract if he earns it. He will not be another Greening in any case.

Not tradeable if Hoffman can't crack 20 goals again. Not saying he won't but if we're looking to trade him, it's because he's eating up valuable cap space while not contributing, e.g. Colin Greening.
 

PoutineSp00nZ

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Jul 21, 2009
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Agreed. 3.5Mx4y would be perfect imo. Right in the sweet spot for what he's worth.
It's not 'long term', and we don't have to go through this whole song and dance next season either.

I'd be skeptical to give him term after that. If I were the Sens I'd be determined to give him another year to prove that he can do it again, and then give him a hefty raise.
 

Nac Mac Feegle

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Jun 10, 2011
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I'm hoping its more around Lee at 3.5. 4 X 3.5 and its good for both sides. Tradable if it does not work. Eats two years of UFA. Still has time to get his payday contract if he earns it. He will not be another Greening in any case.

....and how can anyone be sure?

The guy has one NHL season under his belt. No one can really say definitely if he's a legit 25-30 goal guy in this league, or if this is a 1-year wonder situation.
 

Sens of Anarchy

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I'm hoping its more around Lee at 3.5. 4 X 3.5 and its good for both sides. Tradable if it does not work. Eats two years of UFA. Still has time to get his payday contract if he earns it. He will not be another Greening in any case.

Agreed. 3.5Mx4y would be perfect imo. Right in the sweet spot for what he's worth.
It's not 'long term', and we don't have to go through this whole song and dance next season either.

I would think Hoffman would sign that in a heartbeat. IMO we want to see him do it again before term at that or slightly higher. 1 Yr is perfect for the Sens. 3 million would be good.
 

Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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....and how can anyone be sure?

The guy has one NHL season under his belt. No one can really say definitely if he's a legit 25-30 goal guy in this league, or if this is a 1-year wonder situation.

Whatever happened to Grabner... Was his drop in production injury related, or just getting passed on the depth chart?

Seems like a somewhat similar skill set.
 

Sens of Anarchy

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Jul 9, 2013
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Whatever happened to Grabner... Was his drop in production injury related, or just getting passed on the depth chart?

Seems like a somewhat similar skill set.

Interestingly Grabner never matched his "Rookie" totals from 2010-11 of 76 gp 34g 18a 52 pts but was signed to a 5yr 15 million dollar contract after that [1] break out season. His highest NHL season point total since is 32.
 

Karl Cowensson

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Oct 27, 2008
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I really think this goes to arbitration and Hoffman ends up with a 1 yr 3.5-4M contract. IMO its the best case scenario. If he can produce another 20+ goal season sign him to a 4yr deal, if he can't we have the option of a cheaper 1yr deal or could trade him as a reclamation project to Buffalo :naughty:
 
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