TSN: McKenzie: I get the feeling Matthews & Marner want to wait until next summer to sign

[HC7]

Marner is insane, he's a ghost the 1st half of every season.

Even in London he starts the season off as garbage, he's just a habitual slow starter. However if he starts off the season at a high clip then I'd be worried.

 

[nuck]

Agreed, unless the person you asked was Mark Hunter, then it would be 99 out of 100 times.

A PPG Centre >> playmaking Winger

I believe Leafs are thinking Matthews @ +$10 mil a year and Marner @ ~ $7 mil.

Marner outscored Matthews 69 to 63 points, but Matthews missed 20 games to injury.

Matthews was also a +25 +/- at Es 5v5 while Marner was a -1 so defensively there is no comparison when you compare goals for and against when the players are on the ice.

It would be in Leafs best interest to try and get both signed this summer, because if it ever happened that Matthews and Marner played together their point totals would rise significantly and it would cost the Leafs significant Cap space.

With the cap going up and the Eichel deal, more like at least $10.5 for Matthews. Marner may get $7M. Those are both good outcomes for the club IMO. With two separate injuries this year I can't see Matthews playing hardball. If he gets hurt again next season the value likely doesn't go up and its really hard to argue $11M+ when back to back scoring titles are worth only $12.5M. Who knows though, the sports writers are throwing around stupid big money for both.

 

[Liminality]

Contracts are all about player comparables.

I say Matthews is pretty close to Eichel as his best comparable and << McDavid.

Marner is a little harder to find a good comparable for of a 60-70 point winger after 2 seasons as that would be the lite version of Patrick Kane. Mitch might be closer to the David Pastrnak range of production by age comparison at present who got $6.67 mil per.

Mikko Rantanen drafted a few spots after Marner put up 81 games 29 goals 55 assists 84 points last year compared to Marner's 22 goals and 69 points and both ELC end after this upcoming year. Rantanen has the stats now to warrant that Draisaitl $8.5 mil type deal if he would sign his extension. That might be the deal Marner would like but statistically hasn't achieved it yet so waiting to next year to see if he can put up a PPG makes sense.

I'm not sure if Rantanen or MacKinnon are going to be scoring at that same crazy pace as last year tbh. If Rantanen scores at the same pace next year he for sure deserves a huge contract. Sames goes for Marner

Rantanen has averaged less points than Marner has these two years though.

Marner
2016-2017
77gp 61p

2017-18
82gp 69p

159gp 130p

Rantanen
2016-17
75gp 38p

2017-18
82gp 84p

157gp 122p

 

[Drytoast]

OF COURSE they would.

it maximizes their value.

Matthews top season is only 69 points. He wants to blow that total out of the water before he signs long term.

And Marner feels he can do even better then he did last year so...ya. They didn't do a McDavid 100+ point season topped with multi awards.

 

[Muston Atthews]

I think Matthews actually would be much smarter to sign now, with his injury this year. if he misses significant time next year it could affect his value, and even if healthy if he only puts up a 70-75 point season I could see him not getting into the double digits. like if he was healthy and played all 82 games and got 71 points would you still be comfortable giving him 11 million per like we feel confident in today? I probably wouldn't. vs if he puts up 95 points would you go higher then 11 like we feel good with today? don't think so. so there's such a small reward for him to not sign, with a bigger risk invovled.

This guy gets it .Back injuries are tricky , most never really heal and will get worse over time . Whats he worth if goes down in November / December and ends up only playing 30 games ?

He’s gonna be paid big money either way, injury or not

 

[Tavares to Marner]

12 million for Matthews is nuts. Toews contract is bad enough

 

[Daisy Jane]

They both had pretty good years, Matty had a pretty serious back injury and was still able to score 34 in 62 games, that is 45 goals over a full season, by anyone's standard that is pretty good.

i know that. you know that
but i'm just saying (actually for both players)

i would rather have two amazing years (and a pro-rated year) vs.
1 amazing year and 1 "eh year" despite they were amazing by the end

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

With the cap going up and the Eichel deal, more like at least $10.5 for Matthews. Marner may get $7M. Those are both good outcomes for the club IMO. With two separate injuries this year I can't see Matthews playing hardball. If he gets hurt again next season the value likely doesn't go up and its really hard to argue $11M+ when back to back scoring titles are worth only $12.5M. Who knows though, the sports writers are throwing around stupid big money for both.

I believe it was three separate injuries although we still don't know definitively what the first one was and it may well be he re-injured his shoulder for the third injury.

 

[Nineteen67]

I think Matthews actually would be much smarter to sign now, with his injury this year. if he misses significant time next year it could affect his value, and even if healthy if he only puts up a 70-75 point season I could see him not getting into the double digits. like if he was healthy and played all 82 games and got 71 points would you still be comfortable giving him 11 million per like we feel confident in today? I probably wouldn't. vs if he puts up 95 points would you go higher then 11 like we feel good with today? don't think so. so there's such a small reward for him to not sign, with a bigger risk invovled.

I think he has a chronic back issue ( I heard Cox say he missed time with a bad back when he played in Europe, too), so yeah he may want some cash now to get him to UFA years

 

[Duke16]

12 million for Matthews is nuts. Toews contract is bad enough

Matthews' 69 point rookie season is equal to Toews' 2nd best season. Matthews was PPG this year, Toews has never been.

 

[diceman934]

If you asked 31 GM's, you could pick one guy to build your team around Matthews or Marner, which one do you pick? 31 out of 31 GM's would pick Matthews.... Matthews is a considerably better player.

1st line Franchise goal scoring center or 1st line setup winger, anyone with a shred of hockey knowledge would know that the goal scoring center is the guy you pick 100 out of 100 times.

Mathews is not considerably
better but that was not what my post was about but why let that stop you from writing a post that had nothing to do with my post. I said Marner was a lot closer to Mathews then he was to Nylander.

I will address your post:
Anyone with a shred of hockey knowledge will take the center? Lol not in each case. So now who is lacking in hockey knowledge?

Kane or Towes
Ovi or Backstrom
Marchand or Bergeron

Mathews or Marner will be in the same boat after next season in my opinion particularly if they play together as Marner is seriously underrated by most everyone. I called him our franchise player when we drafted him and nothing has changed my mind since.

 

[diceman934]

Contracts are all about player comparables.

I say Matthews is pretty close to Eichel as his best comparable and << McDavid.

Marner is a little harder to find a good comparable for of a 60-70 point winger after 2 seasons as that would be the lite version of Patrick Kane. Mitch might be closer to the David Pastrnak range of production by age comparison at present who got $6.67 mil per.

Mikko Rantanen drafted a few spots after Marner put up 81 games 29 goals 55 assists 84 points last year compared to Marner's 22 goals and 69 points and both ELC end after this upcoming year. Rantanen has the stats now to warrant that Draisaitl $8.5 mil type deal if he would sign his extension. That might be the deal Marner would like but statistically hasn't achieved it yet so waiting to next year to see if he can put up a PPG makes sense.

Points per 60 is your friend when comparing players as well.

 

[Notsince67]

Points per 60 is your friend when comparing players as well.

This will definitely be brought up by agents. I hope the lesson will be learned by Babcock. Matthews and Marner should have been given more ice time during the year. The only thing that make sense to me was that there was an attempt at statistical suppression.

 

[gabeliscious]

How much more money does Matthews agent really think he can get by waiting? One would have to think the leafs would give him somewhere between Eichel and McDavid right out of the gate. I suppose if the leafs are closer to draisatl then McDavid then maybe?

 

[TeamBester]

Marchand over Bergy? Susf

 

[LeafsNation75]

How should Leafs deal with Matthews, Marner and Nylander?

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/how-should-leafs-deal-with-matthews-marner-and-nylander~1416010

 

[LeafsNation75]

Earlier on That's Hockey they had Jamie McLennan on and he gave his opinion about how the Leafs should handle this.

 

[Tavares to Marner]

Matthews' 69 point rookie season is equal to Toews' 2nd best season. Matthews was PPG this year, Toews has never been.

Matthews played like 60 games tops

 

[DarkKnight]

Earlier on That's Hockey they had Jamie McLennan on and he gave his opinion about how the Leafs should handle this.

I don't see any scenario where Marner does a bridge deal, sorry Jamie.

 

[Nineteen67]

I don't see any scenario where Marner does a bridge deal, sorry Jamie.

Marner or the Leafs? Why would a young player want a long term with a new CBA around the corner? 7 million per for 3 years

 

[The_Chosen_One]

This guy gets it .Back injuries are tricky , most never really heal and will get worse over time . Whats he worth if goes down in November / December and ends up only playing 30 games ?

Matthews just needs a skilled power forward on his line so that he can play that heavy game with abandon. Once that's done, he wouldn't be as taxed physically considering that the PWF would be a huge scoring threat as well.

 

[Atomos2]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/dreger-pre...l-be-around-11m-marner-not-far-behind~1415688

Dreger says Marner's camp might be pushing for 9M depending on what Matthews does which is absolutely ridiculous imo. If he want's to make that money, he gets over a ppg and pushing 90+ points. That would be an awful contract if he doesn't. There's only so much you can gamble on potential.

 

[Nineteen67]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/dreger-pre...l-be-around-11m-marner-not-far-behind~1415688

Dreger says Marner's camp might be pushing for 9M depending on what Matthews does which is absolutely ridiculous imo. If he want's to make that money, he gets over a ppg and pushing 90+ points. That would be an awful contract if he doesn't. There's only so much you can gamble on potential.

Either he has to score at a much higher rate, or he would need to be more dependable in his own end or, preferably, both.

 

[Bluelines]

Mathews is not considerably
better but that was not what my post was about but why let that stop you from writing a post that had nothing to do with my post. I said Marner was a lot closer to Mathews then he was to Nylander.

I will address your post:
Anyone with a shred of hockey knowledge will take the center? Lol not in each case. So now who is lacking in hockey knowledge?

Kane or Towes
Ovi or Backstrom
Marchand or Bergeron

Mathews or Marner will be in the same boat after next season in my opinion particularly if they play together as Marner is seriously underrated by most everyone. I called him our franchise player when we drafted him and nothing has changed my mind since.

For someone who is new to hockey like you are, I have to give you credit for trying to learn the game, stick in there, you'll get it eventually, maybe?

 

[Bluelines]

Agreed, unless the person you asked was Mark Hunter, then it would be 99 out of 100 times.

A PPG Centre >> playmaking Winger

I believe Leafs are thinking Matthews @ +$10 mil a year and Marner @ ~ $7 mil.

Marner outscored Matthews 69 to 63 points, but Matthews missed 20 games to injury.

Matthews was also a +25 +/- at Es 5v5 while Marner was a -1 so defensively there is no comparison when you compare goals for and against when the players are on the ice.

It would be in Leafs best interest to try and get both signed this summer, because if it ever happened that Matthews and Marner played together their point totals would rise significantly and it would cost the Leafs significant Cap space.

Mess gets it.

Forget which show I was watching but they were talking about the 3 amigos and they said, sign them in this order, Nylander first, Marner next and Matthews last. The reasoning is they used the Draisaitl, McDavid scenario and they theorized that by signing the big fish first (McDavid) it actually brought up Draisaitl's AAV. I tend to agree with this theory. They also said that if Marner and Nylander are smart they should bet on themselves and sign a bridge contract vs signing a long term 8 year deal.

They also said that Matthews AAV is somewhere between McDavid (12mil) and Eichel (10 mil). they feel that Marner's contract comparable is Pasternak's (AAV $6.67)