Player Discussion McDavid Trade Value

[Tyrolean]

deleted

 

[Tyrolean]

Dudes let's be honest Connor will not be willing to wait through a slow rebuild, knock on wood we don't get there (knocked my forehead) but if Connor does make a quiet trade request what would he fetch or better yet what would we be willing to accept?

Gretzky wanted to leave and he was successful so it works both ways.

 

[Chef de Cuisine]

Hmm. I'd want Karlsson + Hoffman + Stone + Duchene + 2 1sts

 

[MikeGrier99]

As painful as it may be, an Eric Lindros type return is something a GM should at least explore. Fact is Connor's cap hit is so high, he needs to be at the top of the league to be worth that money. Johnny Gaudreau is making half of what McDavid will make next year, with slightly better production. That's nightmarish to consider.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Taylor Hall

 

[TheRebuild]

As disappointing as the team has been this year, they are not currently in rebuild mode. Their record this season is still better than what we saw in the years leading to complete tear downs (2010, 2015). In 2014-2015, by this time in the season we only had like half the wins we do now. It would be infinitely stupid to tear down the improvements they’ve made over the long run because of a blip on the radar.

 

[rec28]

It’ll never happen but it’s still interesting to think about. IMO, a handful of 8s and 9s can probably accomplish more than a single 10. They were forced into it but the Lindros trade set up the Nordiques/Avalanche for more than a decade of success. Chia would most definitely NOT be the one to trust with that kind of deal, though. Not sure the same return could be had in the cap era, either.

 

[rboomercat90]

Dudes let's be honest Connor will not be willing to wait through a slow rebuild, knock on wood we don't get there (knocked my forehead) but if Connor does make a quiet trade request what would he fetch or better yet what would we be willing to accept?

Do you ever think before you post?

McDavid’s cap hit next year is $12.5 million. That’s $2 million more than any other player in the league. Where is he going to take that cap hit where he will be in any better position than he is here? His cap hit hurts whatever team he is on unless he is far and away the best player in the league that particular season. He is smart enough to understand that and knew the potential consequences of his deal when he signed it. Seasons like this are possible when the money is spread as thin as it is. He isn’t asking for a trade any time soon because it wouldn’t solve his on ice problems. It doesn’t take much to figure that out.

 

[Bank Shot]

As painful as it may be, an Eric Lindros type return is something a GM should at least explore. Fact is Connor's cap hit is so high, he needs to be at the top of the league to be worth that money. Johnny Gaudreau is making half of what McDavid will make next year, with slightly better production. That's nightmarish to consider.

Gaudreau isn't in the same ballpark as McDavid.

 

[MikeGrier99]

Gaudreau isn't in the same ballpark as McDavid.

For relative value though, the situation looks worrisome. Draisaitl and McDavid are almost twice as expensive as Monahan and Gaudreau. Yet their top two forwards are outscoring ours by a decent amount. That's a huge advantage for Calgary, they'll always be able to fill their rosters with better players, our guys will be expected to carry much more of the weight by themselves.

 

[Little Fury]

It’ll never happen but it’s still interesting to think about. IMO, a handful of 8s and 9s can probably accomplish more than a single 10. They were forced into it but the Lindros trade set up the Nordiques/Avalanche for more than a decade of success. Chia would most definitely NOT be the one to trust with that kind of deal, though. Not sure the same return could be had in the cap era, either.

I often wonder if we'd be talking about the Lindros trade being such a great deal for the Avs if Mario Tremblay wasn't such a giant dummy.

 

[Todd from Leduc]

Do you ever think before you post?

McDavid’s cap hit next year is $12.5 million. That’s $2 million more than any other player in the league. Where is he going to take that cap hit where he will be in any better position than he is here? His cap hit hurts whatever team he is on unless he is far and away the best player in the league that particular season. He is smart enough to understand that and knew the potential consequences of his deal when he signed it. Seasons like this are possible when the money is spread as thin as it is. He isn’t asking for a trade any time soon because it wouldn’t solve his on ice problems. It doesn’t take much to figure that out.

I do think before I post but I've got a small brain, you gotta work with what you've got!

I get what you're saying about the cap but I think it's fair to assume any team trading for McDavid is going to be giving up some major good players with their own cap hits so it could be a wash.

My fear is this brutal season may not be the one off anomaly people are writing it off as. We have no money next year for UFA's and will have to likely lose at least one star due to cap hit (Nuge/Nurse) and we have no picks prospects to write home about (crossing fingers for Dahlin), not to mention it usually takes picks years to make it. I want to believe it will be back to playoffs next year but a lot of stars have to line up, I'm hoping our boy McDavid is willing to ride it out but if not it might be the best thing for this club (see the Avalanche/Lindros trade).

 

[Little Fury]

I do think before I post but I've got a small brain, you gotta work with what you've got!

I get what you're saying about the cap but I think it's fair to assume any team trading for McDavid is going to be giving up some major good players with their own cap hits so it could be a wash.

My fear is this brutal season may not be the one off anomaly people are writing it off as. We have no money next year for UFA's and will have to likely lose at least one star due to cap hit (Nuge/Nurse) and we have no picks prospects to write home about (crossing fingers for Dahlin), not to mention it usually takes picks years to make it. I want to believe it will be back to playoffs next year but a lot of stars have to line up, I'm hoping our boy McDavid is willing to ride it out but if not it might be the best thing for this club (see the Avalanche/Lindros trade).

A Lindros type trade would be virtually impossible to pull off in this day and age simply because of the salary cap. So even if trading McDavid wasn't a horrendously stupid idea (it is) it probably wouldn't work.

Fire the GM, add some young talent in the draft, get younger and faster. That's all.

 

[StevenF1919]

Is Chia making the trade?

De Haan, Ho-Sang, Pulock, and a 2nd.

 

[Bank Shot]

For relative value though, the situation looks worrisome. Draisaitl and McDavid are almost twice as expensive as Monahan and Gaudreau. Yet their top two forwards are outscoring ours by a decent amount. That's a huge advantage for Calgary, they'll always be able to fill their rosters with better players, our guys will be expected to carry much more of the weight by themselves.

Sometimes guys get on hot streaks.

The list of guys that might outscore McDavid over a 40 game stretch is a lot longer than the list of guys who will outscore him over a couple of seasons.

Monahan is shooting 18% right now. The other winger on that line, Ferland is shooting 19%.

Gaudreau's on-ice shooting % is over 12.

These numbers aren't going to last.

McDavid is a much better player and it is going to show over the long term.

 

[CycloneSweep]

This thread really has no sense. We are discussing something that will not happen in any near future and is nonsensical.

 

[Laineux]

Monahan is shooting 18% right now. The other winger on that line, Ferland is shooting 19%.

Gaudreau's on-ice shooting % is over 12.

These numbers aren't going to last.

McDavid is a much better player and it is going to show over the long term.

McDavid's on-ice xgf is 70 and his gf is 61. We're talking about likely ~7 points he should have more with average puck luck... these things even out.

 

[Ozz Kub the First]

Gaudreau is averaging slightly under a point a game career. Connor is averaging slightly over a point a game. How are they not even in the same ball park?

I mean Connor's a great player, but is he $6 million better than Gaudreau, $2 million better than the next closest in the league dollar wise??

Ughh. I have a bad feeling about his contract.

 

[MikeGrier99]

I mean Connor's a great player, but is he $6 million better than Gaudreau, $2 million better than the next closest in the league dollar wise??

Ughh. I have a bad feeling about his contract.

This exactly. People are arguing "But McDavid is better than Gaudreau!!!" Yeah no doubt everyone knows that. But he's about to be paid nearly TWICE as much. Connor is going to make 20% more than the next highest paid guys in the game. Being 10th in scoring (with nearly everyone ahead of him having games in hand) is unacceptable for someone with the most lucrative contract in the game's history.

Also people will argue that the cap hit will change over time and all that. McDavid's contract "might" be well priced one day. For one we don't know that, and two why are we paying for future performances when most other contracts (i.e. Gaureau, Monahan, Tavares) pay for their recent level of production.

Next season Connor will be making between 8-4 million dollars more than every other player currently above him in the scoring race. I don't want to hear all this crap about whether or not the Oilers are failing McDavid after he signed a contract like that. He's the highest paid player in the game's history, it's Connor's job to prove that he's worth 20% more than everyone else.

 

[MoneyGuy]

Taylor Hall

We'd have to throw in a second to even that out.

 

[Drivesaitl]

This thread shouldn't be here. Period.

 

[Bank Shot]

Gaudreau is averaging slightly under a point a game career. Connor is averaging slightly over a point a game. How are they not even in the same ball park?

I mean Connor's a great player, but is he $6 million better than Gaudreau, $2 million better than the next closest in the league dollar wise??

Ughh. I have a bad feeling about his contract.

When Gaudreau can kill a penalty and not get run right off the ice in the playoffs, get back to me.

Hockey is more than just points, and McDavid controls the play way more effectively right now then Gaudreau ever will, and the gap will only widen.

 

[Bank Shot]

This exactly. People are arguing "But McDavid is better than Gaudreau!!!" Yeah no doubt everyone knows that. But he's about to be paid nearly TWICE as much. Connor is going to make 20% more than the next highest paid guys in the game. Being 10th in scoring (with nearly everyone ahead of him having games in hand) is unacceptable for someone with the most lucrative contract in the game's history.

Also people will argue that the cap hit will change over time and all that. McDavid's contract "might" be well priced one day. For one we don't know that, and two why are we paying for future performances when most other contracts (i.e. Gaureau, Monahan, Tavares) pay for their recent level of production.

Next season Connor will be making between 8-4 million dollars more than every other player currently above him in the scoring race. I don't want to hear all this crap about whether or not the Oilers are failing McDavid after he signed a contract like that. He's the highest paid player in the game's history, it's Connor's job to prove that he's worth 20% more than everyone else.

McDavid's contract only looks weird because his peers (Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin) are all signed to super long term contracts with artificially low cap hits.

When Tavares signs this summer, and Karlsson, Doughty, Seguin and Matthews get signed the year after there will be some players clustered around McDavid in pay.

I'm not sure why you are saying McDavid is getting paid for future performance? He won all the major awards last year. He's very much getting paid for current performance.

 

[OfCorsiDid]

Holy moly. Step back from the ledge please.

Although there are definitely some holes in our lineup it isn’t like we woke up one day and we had nothing. In fact this season might go down as a historic statistical anomaly, one that might be used to defeat the whole argument around advanced stats and otherwise.

On paper, the Oilers look like a good team with terrible luck. We’re 5th in CF% and 3rd in FF% but we’re 28th in PDO. All signs, statisically say that the Oilers SHOULD turn things around: but they haven’t and so we are in the position we’re in. Even if we produced at a league average PDO of 100 we’re likely in a wildcard spot. Now keep in mind CF% and FF% don’t account for “quality”, but there’s no stat for that because any shot can be a chance in hockey, even though some are more unlikely than others.

In addition to being horrendously unlucky, we’re also somehow 1st in hits while being top 5 in possession (?¿?), which is almost unheard of.

Also, our penalty kill has been historically bad.

The fact is this season has defied almost all advanced stats and ultimately comes down to us being unlucky which unfortunately does happen. I mean I expected some of our players to regress, but in most situations, when one player regresses another fills up with a good season. I would say that outside of McDavid and Nurse, everyone has fallen off a cliff which is EXTREMELY rare.

If we are able to aquire a top 6 winger, a third line centre, and a 4th line centre we’ll be a much better team overall.

Also nobody better give me the bullshit of “good teams create their own luck”. You’re probably the same f***ers that believe in “hot tables” and “hot slot machines” at the casino.

 

[Faelko]

I won’t be shocked if McDavid wins the Art Ross again this year. 8 points is nothing to him especially if Draisaitl and our crappy PP gets going. He’s 2 points for being tied for 2nd in scoring.