Matt Hendricks signs 1yr contract with Jets.

[Mbraunm]

Is Hendricks an upgrade on Thorburn. IMO no

Good-Maurice can then play him as a mainstay on the 4th line! He must be grateful to Chevy for providing him with such an option!

 

[Analyst365]

So Chevy really hasn't built depth if he doesn't trust the farm, at least that's my take.
Hendricks simply isn't needed but I guess Chevy and Maurice need their blankey.
Grizzled vet , good work ethic
5 minutes a game inspirational glue guy.....sigh had so much hope with Thorburn gone just not getting their mind set

Well I guess the Hawks and Pens didn't trust their farms either, bringing in ex Jets Oduya, Fehr, and Hainsey and winning cups with them.

 

[KingBogo]

You keep repeating that mantra without considering any factors. Without getting into any debates with you about how good these players are or are not and whether they are being properly evaluated just consider a couple of things. These are young players, still developing. They are expected to improve year over year. They are the players that Chevy moved down in the draft in order to retain on the roster.



If people were confident that he wouldn't dress for the Jets this year it would just be stupidly spending Chipman's money. Maurice gets to pick his roster from those Chevy provides, at least that is the assumption. Maurice is expected to want his tough guy so Hendricks makes the 23 man roster. PB guys typically play 50 games or more in a season. That means we have 50 games rolling 3 lines instead of 4. Simple.

If he spends the entire season with the Moose then there is little harm done - more than none but not much.

Not just directed to you Mort, but I've been looking at this pretty close over the last couple of days after having another discussion about it. But the Jets are extremely typical for minutes distribution across the league. There isn't a team in the league that rolls 4 lines. By running 4 lines I'm saying a reasonable distribution of minutes between all forwards. Again just looking at forwards, there were 38 players across the league who played a minimum of 20 games who averaged less than 10 mins TOI and only 1 was a Jet (Thorburn).

Moving the bar up a bit there were 102 forwards with a minimum of 20 games that had less than 12 min TOI and 4 were Jets (add Dano, Petan and Tanev to Thor). Just a quick comparison to a couple teams. The 2 Stanley Cup Finalists (Pens & Preds) and the 2 teams we often get compared to as passing us by (Leafs & Oilers). Again with a minimum of 20 games played The Preds and Pens each had 4 forwards at under 12 minutes TOI, and the Leafs and Oilers each had 5 forwards under 12 minutes TOI.

Across the league all teams have a handful of forwards that play 17 - 21 mins a night (122 in total). And it is a pretty impressive list at names. My take is there just isn't enough talent to truly run 4 lines. If you can manage a line getting 10-12 mins at one end and another getting 18-20 mins on the other end and 2 getting the minutes in between you are as balanced as there is in the NHL. And we are very typical in just about every way.

 

[nobody important]

Really Calgary? I'm starting to think all GM's are complete morons that are only saved from themselves when someone else beats them to the 'dumb' signing of the week.

Edit: Bit too much?

As Goldilocks would say, this one was just right.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Well I guess the Hawks and Pens didn't trust their farms either, bringing in ex Jets Oduya, Fehr, and Hainsey and winning cups with them.

It's possible, as a Pens fan I'd be less critical

 

[Whileee]

Not just directed to you Mort, but I've been looking at this pretty close over the last couple of days after having another discussion about it. But the Jets are extremely typical for minutes distribution across the league. There isn't a team in the league that rolls 4 lines. By running 4 lines I'm saying a reasonable distribution of minutes between all forwards. Again just looking at forwards, there were 38 players across the league who played a minimum of 20 games who averaged less than 10 mins TOI and only 1 was a Jet (Thorburn).

Moving the bar up a bit there were 102 forwards with a minimum of 20 games that had less than 12 min TOI and 4 were Jets (add Dano, Petan and Tanev to Thor). Just a quick comparison to a couple teams. The 2 Stanley Cup Finalists (Pens & Preds) and the 2 teams we often get compared to as passing us by (Leafs & Oilers). Again with a minimum of 20 games played The Preds and Pens each had 4 forwards at under 12 minutes TOI, and the Leafs and Oilers each had 5 forwards under 12 minutes TOI.

Across the league all teams have a handful of forwards that play 17 - 21 mins a night (122 in total). And it is a pretty impressive list at names. My take is there just isn't enough talent to truly run 4 lines. If you can manage a line getting 10-12 mins at one end and another getting 18-20 mins on the other end and 2 getting the minutes in between you are as balanced as there is in the NHL. And we are very typical in just about every way.

It kinda makes sense to play the best players the most. As long as they don't over play them and burn them out, it's smart to play the top 6 a lot. You just don't want too big a drop-off to the bottom 6, which has been a problem for the Jets. Now they should have plenty of depth to have an effective bottom 6 and to sustain performance through some injuries.

 

[Whileee]

So Chevy really hasn't built depth if he doesn't trust the farm, at least that's my take.
Hendricks simply isn't needed but I guess Chevy and Maurice need their blankey.
Grizzled vet , good work ethic
5 minutes a game inspirational glue guy.....sigh had so much hope with Thorburn gone just not getting their mind set

I think it's helmet punching more than anything else. I think usage will be based entirely on the perceived need for some physical deterrence. He's not going to replace forwards who have other roles. If a top 9 forward goes down, Petan, Roslovic and maybe Lemieux or Tanev will be in front of him.

 

[peter sullivan]

Ya, it's weird everyone's not slotted in where they should be when you have 350+ man games in injuries....

Copp on the first line had nothing whatsoever to do with injuries.

 

[KingBogo]

It kinda makes sense to play the best players the most. As long as they don't over play them and burn them out, it's smart to play the top 6 a lot. You just don't want too big a drop-off to the bottom 6, which has been a problem for the Jets. Now they should have plenty of depth to have an effective bottom 6 and to sustain performance through some injuries.

Interestingly just about every fan base has the exact same complaint about their coach. More specifically the over reliance of veterans in the bottom 6. Coach Q gets ripped for this constantly and even Babs gets his fair share of complaints about this. I was mostly looking if the perception of Maurice was supported by how he distributed ice time. It turns out all coaches distribute ice time in a very uniform way. Maurice is the norm not the exception. Every team has 3 or 4 defenseman at the top of TOI in the 22-26 min range (Buff is a little higher, but not the highest across the league). Then slots in 3-4 top forwards in the 21-17 min range (your stars) with usually another d-man or 2. Then there is a gradual reduction of icetime among forwards until you get to the 12 minute range and then you have a group of 3-5 forwards getting 10-12 minutes, with most teams having 1 forward below 10.

Not saying this is ideal, just saying even the Stanley cup contenders distribute ice time in the same way. It gets you thinking to what extent do coaches sacrifice a little production to foster team harmony in the room. A coach has to manage 23 strong personalities all competing for limited resources. Opportunity through TOI and role usage. Star players want to play and want to play a lot. In fact future earnings are highly dependent on their production which comes with TOI and optimal usage. No doubt friendships and alliances form among team mates that have gone to "battle" with each other. Throw in generations of hockey culture around needing to earn your role must make for a very interesting dynamic behind the scene.

I've argued in the past as fans we pay far too little attention to human psychology and group dynamics when we analyze our favourite teams. Even in an office setting there is continuous managing of human interactions with a tremendous amount of behind the scenes competition for available opportunity. I can only imagine how many times over this gets rampped up in a profession sports team.

 

[Jets 31]

Hendricks must own a cabin near Chevy and Chevy lost the card game , thus Chevy had to sign Hendricks to a deal . Only thing that makes sense to me . LOL !!!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not just directed to you Mort, but I've been looking at this pretty close over the last couple of days after having another discussion about it. But the Jets are extremely typical for minutes distribution across the league. There isn't a team in the league that rolls 4 lines. By running 4 lines I'm saying a reasonable distribution of minutes between all forwards. Again just looking at forwards, there were 38 players across the league who played a minimum of 20 games who averaged less than 10 mins TOI and only 1 was a Jet (Thorburn).

Moving the bar up a bit there were 102 forwards with a minimum of 20 games that had less than 12 min TOI and 4 were Jets (add Dano, Petan and Tanev to Thor). Just a quick comparison to a couple teams. The 2 Stanley Cup Finalists (Pens & Preds) and the 2 teams we often get compared to as passing us by (Leafs & Oilers). Again with a minimum of 20 games played The Preds and Pens each had 4 forwards at under 12 minutes TOI, and the Leafs and Oilers each had 5 forwards under 12 minutes TOI.

Across the league all teams have a handful of forwards that play 17 - 21 mins a night (122 in total). And it is a pretty impressive list at names. My take is there just isn't enough talent to truly run 4 lines. If you can manage a line getting 10-12 mins at one end and another getting 18-20 mins on the other end and 2 getting the minutes in between you are as balanced as there is in the NHL. And we are very typical in just about every way.

Some interesting data there KB.

I think we would find that the Jets tend to use their 4th line less than the avg at 5v5. The 4th liners usually get some ST TOI. I'm not going to take the time to dig out that information. It would take me a long time.

The thing is that the Jets have got the depth of talent to build a very strong bottom 6. There are many variations but last year's 3rd line - MLA - could be this year's 4th, for example. There are several other ways to build a strong 4th line that have been discussed at great length in the roster thread.

IF Maurice wants to dress Hendricks (for toughness, or whatever) none of those strong 4th lines come together. I hope Hendricks spends the entire season with the Moose but it is quite possible that he is a PB guy with the Jets and plays 30+ games. That will be a downgrade on what we could have instead.

Edit: He might also be given substantial PK time. That can only make the PK worse, if that's possible.

 

[nobody important]

Hendricks must own a cabin near Chevy and Chevy lost the card game , thus Chevy had to sign Hendricks to a deal . Only thing that makes sense to me . LOL !!!

And far away in some recess
Chevy and Maurice are now playing chess
Maurice still cheats and gets more goons
And as for Chevy, well, he's just doing his best

With apologies to Chris De Burgh.

 

[mcpw]

Some interesting data there KB.

I think we would find that the Jets tend to use their 4th line less than the avg at 5v5. The 4th liners usually get some ST TOI. I'm not going to take the time to dig out that information. It would take me a long time.

Forwards >50GP, least EVTOI/GP:
1 Boll 05:46
2 Thorburn 06:19
3 Tootoo 06:43
4 McLeod 07:03
5 Neil 07:31
6-8 S.Thornton/L.Shaw/Martin
9 Petan 08:41
10-18 Skille/Kuhnhackl/D.Miller/Reaves/Fehr/J.Hayes/Gaunce/Ott/Martinsen
19 Tanev 08:59

Forwards >50GP, least TOI/GP:
1 Boll 05:48
2 Tootoo 06:44
3 Thorburn 06:58
4 McLeod 07:09
5 Neil 07:34
25 Tanev 10:40
33 Petan 10:54

Most EVTOI/GP:
1 P.Kane
2 McDavid
3 Scheifele
19 Wheeler
40 Laine

Most TOI/GP:
1-3 O'Reilly/P.Kane/Kesler
9 Scheifele
11 Wheeler

 

[robertocarlos]

I love addition by subtraction, and multiplication is really division.

 

[CaptainChef]

Forwards >50GP, least EVTOI/GP:
1 Boll 05:46
2 Thorburn 06:19
3 Tootoo 06:43
4 McLeod 07:03
5 Neil 07:31
6-8 S.Thornton/L.Shaw/Martin
9 Petan 08:41
10-18 Skille/Kuhnhackl/D.Miller/Reaves/Fehr/J.Hayes/Gaunce/Ott/Martinsen
19 Tanev 08:59

Forwards >50GP, least TOI/GP:
1 Boll 05:48
2 Tootoo 06:44
3 Thorburn 06:58
4 McLeod 07:09
5 Neil 07:34
25 Tanev 10:40
33 Petan 10:54

Most EVTOI/GP:
1 P.Kane
2 McDavid
3 Scheifele
19 Wheeler
40 Laine

Most TOI/GP:
1-3 O'Reilly/P.Kane/Kesler
9 Scheifele
11 Wheeler

Thanks MC. Supports the notion that Maurice is unusually inclined to overplay his big guns & underplay his 4th liners. This notion has been noted quite frequently, so was surprised to see stats to the contrary.

I really think this hurts the Jets as it contributes greatly to:
a) wear & tear of your top liners as games and the season progresses,
b) tired guys taking more unnecessary hooking/holding penalties, and
c) greater incidence of injuries among your tired/overworked players as the season progresses

 

[Aavco Cup]

Thanks MC. Supports the notion that Maurice is unusually inclined to overplay his big guns & underplay his 4th liners. This notion has been noted quite frequently, so was surprised to see stats to the contrary.

I really think this hurts the Jets as it contributes greatly to:
a) wear & tear of your top liners as games and the season progresses,
b) tired guys taking more unnecessary hooking/holding penalties, and
c) greater incidence of injuries among your tired/overworked players as the season progresses

You wanted him to play Thorburn more than he did?

 

[Whileee]

Thanks MC. Supports the notion that Maurice is unusually inclined to overplay his big guns & underplay his 4th liners. This notion has been noted quite frequently, so was surprised to see stats to the contrary.

I really think this hurts the Jets as it contributes greatly to:
a) wear & tear of your top liners as games and the season progresses,
b) tired guys taking more unnecessary hooking/holding penalties, and
c) greater incidence of injuries among your tired/overworked players as the season progresses

Hard to make a conclusion from a season with a huge number of injuries.

 

[mcpw]

Hard to make a conclusion from a season with a huge number of injuries.

Same thing for a season without major injuries (15-16):

Least EVTOI/GP for >50GP
1 Copp 07:09
2 Legwand 07:14
3 Mike Brown 07:39
26 Thorburn 09:21

Least TOI/GP for >50GP
1 Mike Brown 07:48
2 Copp 08:00
3 Reaves 08:01
18 Thorburn 10:07

Least EVTOI/GP for >30GP
1 Peluso
2 Boll
3 Copp

Least TOI/GP for >30GP
1 Peluso
2-4 Boll, Mashinter, Brown
5 Copp

 

[CaptainChef]

You wanted him to play Thorburn more than he did?

I'm sure you know what I'm saying but just to reinforce. We've got the guns to go with 4 dang good lines. Sure I expect some disparity in useage from line 1 to 4, but Maurice has been putting garbage out there on line 4 for so long that even he can't stand them being out for much more than 10 mins.

Thorburn, for sure should have been bench material for much of the year - injuries or not. When you have injuries, you bring your best skill or checking guys from the Moose rather than inserting the garbage.

And just to clarify, I would never consider Petan or Dano as guys you are scared to have out there, but PMo seems to treat them as such. Tanev, on the other hand, is probably just filler. Likewise, Hendricks is mere moral support.

But just watch PMo take a liking to Hendricks and he will be represent Thorburn2 (at least until PMo gets fired)

 

[Whileee]

Same thing for a season without major injuries (15-16):

Least EVTOI/GP for >50GP
1 Copp 07:09
2 Legwand 07:14
3 Mike Brown 07:39
26 Thorburn 09:21

Least TOI/GP for >50GP
1 Mike Brown 07:48
2 Copp 08:00
3 Reaves 08:01
18 Thorburn 10:07

Least EVTOI/GP for >30GP
1 Peluso
2 Boll
3 Copp

Least TOI/GP for >30GP
1 Peluso
2-4 Boll, Mashinter, Brown
5 Copp

Less usage of top-end forwards in 2015/16, though still more than the average NHL team.

 

[Weezeric]

I don't really understand the time on ice issue. Sure you don't want to run your 4th line for 5 mins, but as this info has shown the jets have only had 1 player per season who played >50 games at <10 mins a night.

Do you want your 4th line playing more than 10 mins a night? As I see it you have 60 mins to split between your lines. I'd rather have a greater balance between the top 3 lines than all 4. Otherwise you're just taking time from your top six to give to your 4th line.

1st line - 19 mins
2nd line - 17 mins
3rd line - 14 mins
4th line - 10 mins

Is that not reasonable? If you're behind in a game why wouldn't you take a minute from your 4th line to give to each top 6 line?

 

[winnipegger]

Seems pointless. Only a problem if Maurice messes things up by playing him lots.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Forwards >50GP, least EVTOI/GP:
1 Boll 05:46
2 Thorburn 06:19
3 Tootoo 06:43
4 McLeod 07:03
5 Neil 07:31
6-8 S.Thornton/L.Shaw/Martin
9 Petan 08:41
10-18 Skille/Kuhnhackl/D.Miller/Reaves/Fehr/J.Hayes/Gaunce/Ott/Martinsen
19 Tanev 08:59

Forwards >50GP, least TOI/GP:
1 Boll 05:48
2 Tootoo 06:44
3 Thorburn 06:58
4 McLeod 07:09
5 Neil 07:34
25 Tanev 10:40
33 Petan 10:54

Most EVTOI/GP:
1 P.Kane
2 McDavid
3 Scheifele
19 Wheeler
40 Laine

Most TOI/GP:
1-3 O'Reilly/P.Kane/Kesler
9 Scheifele
11 Wheeler

Thanks.

With 3 in the bottom 19 that seems to support below avg. 4th line TOI, 5v5.

By itself that may not be all that significant but in the context of the bottom 6 that we could have I think it is.

 

[KingBogo]

Thanks MC. Supports the notion that Maurice is unusually inclined to overplay his big guns & underplay his 4th liners. This notion has been noted quite frequently, so was surprised to see stats to the contrary.

I really think this hurts the Jets as it contributes greatly to:
a) wear & tear of your top liners as games and the season progresses,
b) tired guys taking more unnecessary hooking/holding penalties, and
c) greater incidence of injuries among your tired/overworked players as the season progresses

Actually if you go back, the argument wasn't that Maurice doesn't "over play" his top players and "under play" his 4th line, but rather all coaches do. So Maurice is not the outlyer he is portrayed to be but the norm. All coaches play their top players much more and their 4th line significantly less.

Last season 20 teams (counting only the team the player ended the season with) had a player with less than 10 mins TOI with at least 20 games played. Broken down as follows:

Anaheim - 4
Buffalo - 4
Florida - 3
Vancouver - 3
Calgary - 3
Tampa Bay - 3
Chicago - 2
Toronto - 2
Edmonton - 2
Minnesota - 2
Montreal - 2
Winnipeg - 1
Nashville - 1
Ottawa - 1
St. Louis - 1
San Jose - 1
Boston - 1
Philadelphia - 1
New York Rangers - 1
Columbus - 1

Again I'm not arguing more balance isn't better but all teams have bottom of the roster players that move in and out of the roster that get minimal minutes. While all teams have top of the roster players that get much greater minutes. IMO there just isn't enough talent available for the vast majority of teams to even out ice-time.

 

[KingBogo]

Thanks.

With 3 in the bottom 19 that seems to support below avg. 4th line TOI, 5v5.

By itself that may not be all that significant but in the context of the bottom 6 that we could have I think it is.

Actually I'd argue TOI not EV TOI is a better indicator of ice time. Since no matter what the situation a player is getting ice time. For example if you go TOI Petan jumps up quite a bit because he got far more PP time than most "4th liners". PP time is actually optimal usage to enhance production. So Maurice in that light actually favoured skill over "character".

Also 50 games is a pretty high threshold for 4th line player. I was trying to capture guys that were in and out of the line up, but not the 1-2 game call up guys. But interestingly if you raise the threshold 5 games higher to 55 now the Jets only have 1 player in the bottom 40.

It is all pretty arbitrary as there are a lot of players from all teams in a pretty tight band in this type of usage.