Speculation: Marner or Nylander?

[Legion34]

I still don't understand the fixation with signing bonuses that some folks hold.

They have literally zero downsides for the team, and have nothing but positives if the team decides to move the player during the back half of their contact when they make little real dollars (at least to a potential trade partner whose a budget team).

They're also super common and havent really shown a history of reducing aav among players.

And more importantly. They have repeatedly saved us.

1.) zaitsev would still be here if he didn’t have that SB
2.) look at the options we have now. In a cash poor league. The most successful team of the past 15 years are the pens. They are cutting salary due to the pandemic. And it’s only 4 months in.....


Imagine the return for broke teams. To get a marner for 750k?

well we can sign a player for 8 mill this year... or pay marner 750k..... it’s the best thing dubas did.

 

[81Leafs50]

His rfa contract has been in effect this year. Read the post again

oh ok, so you are just looking at the only good NHL season he's had out of 4. I'm sure that's not cherry picking at all.

 

[Notsince67]

oh ok, so you are just looking at the only good NHL season he's had out of 4. I'm sure that's not cherry picking at all.

It is the only season in his current contract so yeah. BTW...you might want to check Marners 93 point season the prior year too (different contract) or the facgt that he has actually had over 90 points for 82 consecutive games played since December 2018 before you go spouting nonsense about 2019-2020 being his only good year.

 

[67Leafs67]

The crucial missing option in this poll is neither.

 

[Faltorvo]

How much was in signing bonus for Ehlers? Wasn’t that supposed to help the Leafs with AAV? So much revisionism with Willie now.

do you remember when everyone said , "selling UFA seasons" cost extra?

funny Ehlers inked for 7y,,Nylander,6y

Ehlers sold 3 UFA seasons,,Nylander sold 1

nylander gets 1 million more per ,,,with 1 less year of term and 2 less seasons of sold UFA

 

[81Leafs50]

It is the only season in his current contract so yeah. BTW...you might want to check Marners 93 point season the prior year too (different contract) or the facgt that he has actually had over 90 points for 82 consecutive games played since December 2018 before you go spouting nonsense about 2019-2020 being his only good year.

whatever helps you sleep at night. Lets just count last seasons 94pts as his rookie year and give him the calder.

 

[DarkKnight]

do you remember when everyone said , "selling UFA seasons" cost extra?

funny Ehlers inked for 7y,,Nylander,6y

Ehlers sold 3 UFA seasons,,Nylander sold 1

nylander gets 1 million more per ,,,with 1 less year of term and 2 less seasons of sold UFA

Exactly. Then factor in the money up front Willie got, which he can in turn invest now and turn into more, and it’s a slam dunk for his agent.

 

[saffronleaf]

What can we realistically get in return for Marner? Maybe a top 4 dman and a top 6 winger? What do you think? Pieces might need to be added.

 

[saffronleaf]

Comparing Marner to the top offensive player in the series as proof that Marner didn't play well and the reason why Marner should be moved over Nylander is a pretty incongruous and puzzling

Wasn't Paul & co. claiming he's just as good as Matthews?

 

[Faltorvo]

I see no real value viewing Marner’s contract in isolation. Nor do I see any merit in looking back at what Nylander extracted at the time and now arguing the upside. I look at the full story, with many actors, to decipher Dubas’ performance.

Prior to Nylander signing, we were all buying this RFA little leverage slant, because it was true. Instead, Willie managed to get the highest dollar(go look back at what posters here thought he’d get in the summer prior to his signing), with the added bonuses structure that made the deal even better for him. He didn’t sign for the max term, he won on the UFA front as well. Nylander checked all the boxes, his agent got it ALL. What he makes now relative to performance is entirely irrelevant to me, context matters.

Fast forward to Matthews, a spooked Dubas wanted to avoid any drama and effectively handed his camp everything they possibly could have wanted. The highest of dollars, the best of bonus and not sacrificing UFA, again he will be 26 now going back into the market. Good lord what a deal.

Now you have Marner’s agent watching Dubas pretty much acquiesce across the ledger with both RFA’s and suddenly we’re head scratching his comparables, his greed, his holding firm? Sure he was over paid, but some of us said for months prior he was getting double digit AAV because of the precedent, because our GM essentially was schooled twice imho.

The Big 3 are tied together, one could argue Tavares as well. To isolate Marner is to distort the narrative and it leaves me flat as to real understanding as to why this team sits in such a precarious position cap wise.

again as i argued way back when and the rest of the league proven it out

there is still and has always been a different market for UFAs/RFAs except in dubasses f*** up world

 

[DarkKnight]

again as i argued way back when and the rest of the league proven it out

there is still and has always been a different market for UFAs/RFAs except in dubasses f*** up world

I linked to the old threads once, was interesting what people said then about hometown discounts, bonus money and AAV he deserved for all those UFA years. People just moved the goal posts, nobody thought he deserved that money, on that term, with that bonus as a RFA. Nobody.

 

[Notsince67]

whatever helps you sleep at night. Lets just count last seasons 94pts as his rookie year and give him the calder.

I have no problem sleeping over your lack of reading comprehension.
I wrote:

Has Nylander lived up to his contract?
.70 ppg which trues up to about 58 points in 82 games.
Marner 1.14 ppg which trues up to 93 points.
If Marner got paid as "fairly" as Willy, he would be making 11.2mm.​

You wrote:
from NHL.com, mitch manner is a .97 point per game player since being drafted. I don't know where you get 1.14 from.

I dont know why you would bring stats from different contracts here but whatever

 

[Notsince67]

do you remember when everyone said , "selling UFA seasons" cost extra?

funny Ehlers inked for 7y,,Nylander,6y

Ehlers sold 3 UFA seasons,,Nylander sold 1

nylander gets 1 million more per ,,,with 1 less year of term and 2 less seasons of sold UFA

Nylander signed for 5.6 years. Prorated to 6 would equate to 7.5mm

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

I see no real value viewing Marner’s contract in isolation. Nor do I see any merit in looking back at what Nylander extracted at the time and now arguing the upside. I look at the full story, with many actors, to decipher Dubas’ performance.

Prior to Nylander signing, we were all buying this RFA little leverage slant, because it was true. Instead, Willie managed to get the highest dollar(go look back at what posters here thought he’d get in the summer prior to his signing), with the added bonuses structure that made the deal even better for him. He didn’t sign for the max term, he won on the UFA front as well. Nylander checked all the boxes, his agent got it ALL. What he makes now relative to performance is entirely irrelevant to me, context matters.

Fast forward to Matthews, a spooked Dubas wanted to avoid any drama and effectively handed his camp everything they possibly could have wanted. The highest of dollars, the best of bonus and not sacrificing UFA, again he will be 26 now going back into the market. Good lord what a deal.

Now you have Marner’s agent watching Dubas pretty much acquiesce across the ledger with both RFA’s and suddenly we’re head scratching his comparables, his greed, his holding firm? Sure he was over paid, but some of us said for months prior he was getting double digit AAV because of the precedent, because our GM essentially was schooled twice imho.

The Big 3 are tied together, one could argue Tavares as well. To isolate Marner is to distort the narrative and it leaves me flat as to real understanding as to why this team sits in such a precarious position cap wise.

Wonder how much could’ve been avoided if Nylander’s holdout wasn’t so excruciatingly long and didn’t end with him getting “overpaid” as many viewed it. Seriously if Dubas was going to just give him roughly $7 million anyway why not just do it before or during training camp? He held his ground for nothing.

If he had just signed Nylander for that at the start of the season he could’ve played it off as him and the team betting on Nylander’s future (regardless of how comparable contracts like Ehlers looked), and all the drama and perception of his giving in is avoided. Maybe Matthews isn’t as emboldened and/or Dubas isn’t as in a rush to sign Matthews for, quite frankly, a pathetic term. Those two negotiations and the resulting contracts led to an already ruthless Darren Ferris to smell blood. Combined with a greedy father and player and Mitch gets overpaid by 2 million, and again for shorter term than we would’ve liked. Nylander to Matthews to Marner, each contract worse than the last.

 

[Notsince67]

Wonder how much could’ve been avoided if Nylander’s holdout wasn’t so excruciatingly long and didn’t end with him getting “overpaid” as many viewed it. Seriously if Dubas was going to just give him roughly $7 million anyway why not just do it before or during training camp? He held his ground for nothing.

If he had just signed Nylander for that at the start of the season he could’ve played it off as him and the team betting on Nylander’s future (regardless of how comparable contracts like Ehlers looked), and all the drama and perception of his giving in is avoided. Maybe Matthews isn’t as emboldened and/or Dubas isn’t as in a rush to sign Matthews for, quite frankly, a pathetic term. Those two negotiations and the resulting contracts led to an already ruthless Darren Ferris to smell blood. Combined with a greedy father and player and Mitch gets overpaid by 2 million, and again for shorter term than we would’ve liked. Nylander to Matthews to Marner, each contract worse than the last.

Mitch was overpaid by .5mm

 

[Gallagbi]

Wonder how much could’ve been avoided if Nylander’s holdout wasn’t so excruciatingly long and didn’t end with him getting “overpaid” as many viewed it. Seriously if Dubas was going to just give him roughly $7 million anyway why not just do it before or during training camp? He held his ground for nothing.

everything we've read suggests they offered 7/yr early on and eventually Nylander accepted. Doesn't sound like Dubas moved with the only exception being making Nylander "whole" for the missed time

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Trade Nylander and Johnsson to Montreal for Gallagher and Weber with some variances of picks,salary equalization etc and it works for both clubs.

We get our defense straightened out and some jam. They get a center in Nylander that can score and a winger that can score. The salary is close.

That would only be a start on how this needs to be fixed but it would be a great start. Its almost a perfect hockey trade everything considered for each team.

 

[The Podium]

I would rather trade Marner and his contract, but thats a deal youll lose 10/10 times.

If youre making purely a hockey trade, I feel there are more D that may be available in the value range of Nylander so you wont be losing value on your asset.

For example, Seth Jones wont be available for Marner, but Pesce might be available for Nylander.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I would rather trade Marner and his contract, but thats a deal youll lose 10/10 times.

If youre making purely a hockey trade, I feel there are more D that may be available in the value range of Nylander so you wont be losing value on your asset.

For example, Seth Jones wont be available for Marner, but Pesce might be available for Nylander.

Robertson is coming along at 3 cheap years. Johnsson can go too. We need more than defense but it starts at defense improving significantly. Morgan Rielly isn’t exempt either for trade. 4 years of this needs to stop. We would lose a Marner trade if it was rushed. The interest over a period would up his value. Premier setup guy i could just keep. Lock him in the barn with 3/4” plywood doubled up all around with nothing but sticks and pucks until he can shoot his way out ha

ok he can have water too

 

[81Leafs50]

I have no problem sleeping over your lack of reading comprehension.
I wrote:

Has Nylander lived up to his contract?
.70 ppg which trues up to about 58 points in 82 games.
Marner 1.14 ppg which trues up to 93 points.
If Marner got paid as "fairly" as Willy, he would be making 11.2mm.​

You wrote:
from NHL.com, mitch manner is a .97 point per game player since being drafted. I don't know where you get 1.14 from.

I dont know why you would bring stats from different contracts here but whatever

In the NHL players get paid based on performance right? well when he was negotiating his deal Marner had 3 seasons under his belt with .93 Pts/G. 2 mediocre seasons of 19 and 22 goals with 61 & 69 pts and 1 season of 26 goals and 94pts.

NOW all of a sudden none of that matters anymore? its ok to pay him off of a 94 pt ELC year but its not ok to bring up the other 2 ELC years right?

your argument is lame. its holds no water.

 

[Gallagbi]

Mitch was overpaid by .5mm

This is based on you thinking Kane and Mitch are comparables, correct?

 

[Notsince67]

In the NHL players get paid based on performance right? well when he was negotiating his deal Marner had 3 seasons under his belt with .93 Pts/G. 2 mediocre seasons of 19 and 22 goals with 61 & 69 pts and 1 season of 26 goals and 94pts.

NOW all of a sudden none of that matters anymore? its ok to pay him off of a 94 pt ELC year but its not ok to bring up the other 2 ELC years right?

your argument is lame. its holds no water.

You do understand the meaning of Has Nylander lived up to his contract?

 

[Gallagbi]

Seems pretty obvious that Nylander failed miserably in year 1 and had a much better second year

 

[Notsince67]

This is based on you thinking Kane and Mitch are comparables, correct?

Sure

Kane cap adj salary 9.04MM x 5
1. 73 Games, 27 Goals, 46 assists, 73 points
2. 82 Games, 23 Goals, 43 assists 66 points

There are bigger winger contracts as a comparison if you think it is unprecedented and there is no way a winger should be paid that money. Only Vanek went past 5 years

Rick Nash cap adj salary 11.3MM x 5
1. 54 Games, 31 goals, 23 assists, 54 points
2. 75 games, 27 goals, 30 assists, 57 points

Thomas Vanek cap adj salary 11.6mm x 7
1. 82 Games, 36 Goals, 28 assists, 64 points
2. 73 Games, 40 Goals, 24 Assists, 54 points

Ilya Kovalchuk cap adj salary 13.4MM x 5
1. 78 Games, 52 goals, 42 assists, 98 points
2. 82 Games, 42 goals, 34 assists, 76 points


And if you are interested, I advocated for an early signing of 8.5 to 8.8MM on a better worse case scenario because I was completely unaware that Dubas would create inflationary pressure due to overpayment of Nylander and Matthews.
Notice the date and the almost prescient precision of the analysis. And I was looking at a 7 year term (in comparison to Johnnyt)
Marner's Next Contract

 

[Gallagbi]

Sure

Kane cap adj salary 9.04MM x 5
1. 73 Games, 27 Goals, 46 assists, 73 points
2. 82 Games, 23 Goals, 43 assists 66 points

There are bigger winger contracts as a comparison if you think it is unprecedented and there is no way a winger should be paid that money. Only Vanek went past 5 years

Rick Nash cap adj salary 11.3MM x 5
1. 54 Games, 31 goals, 23 assists, 54 points
2. 75 games, 27 goals, 30 assists, 57 points

Thomas Vanek cap adj salary 11.6mm x 7
1. 82 Games, 36 Goals, 28 assists, 64 points
2. 73 Games, 40 Goals, 24 Assists, 54 points

Ilya Kovalchuk cap adj salary 13.4MM x 5
1. 78 Games, 52 goals, 42 assists, 98 points
2. 82 Games, 42 goals, 34 assists, 76 points


And if you are interested, I advocated for an early signing of 8.5 to 8.8MM on a better worse case scenario because I was completely unaware that Dubas would create inflationary pressure due to overpayment of Nylander and Matthews.
Notice the date and the almost prescient precision of the analysis. And I was looking at a 7 year term (in comparison to Johnnyt)
Marner's Next Contract

Gotcha, I'm genuinely curious where that 500k number was coming from and remember you mentioning Kane as a comparable. Wasn't sure if that was the current or first contract he signed off ELC.

Interesting that the comparables are all primarily goal scorers whereas Mitch is a playmaker.

Also agree on the 8x8.5 that's a huge mistake IMO, Dubas's biggest