Speculation: Marner or Nylander?

[Notsince67]

It seems to me that a lot of people here have little understanding of how a contract gets calculated.
This nonsense that Nylander was fairly paid and Marner was way overpaid is pure fantasy. They were both overpaid but their relative overpayment differences might surprise some.
From Marners perspective, his closest comparables was Patrick Kane. They are about as close as anyone given an apples to apples comparison of the 3 years leading to rfa. One might even favor Marner because his points were on an upward trajectory relatively speaking. Cap adjusted, Kane came in at around 9.04mm for 5 years. Marner gave up an additional 1 year of UFA. That tags an additional 15.9mm (max) to a comparable 6 year. That comes to 10.32mm for a 5 year deal....an overpayment of around .5mm.

Nylanders close co.parables was ehlers whose cap adjusted total would be something like 6.3mm for 7 years. Given that Nylander took 40% of his first year off, managed 7mm for 5.6years. 6 years would be trued up to 7.5mm. It is unlikely either of them would draw a maximum salary for their ufa years but assuming the same percentage increase as Marner ( for his ufa year) we could pull around 9.2mm off the ehlers contract and then true up to 6 years. That leaves 5.82mm for 6 years. A good argument of like terms has willy overpaid by 1.68mm over Marner who is .5mm over. This is totally without looking at their performance post elc...which Marner has performed better. Term and comparables matter. Based on only what we knew before Willy signed and before Marner signed, Dubas crapped the bed with Willy in a major way, exacerbated it with a big Matthew's signing. Matthew's contract would be closer to 12.345 had he given another year up like Marner.

 

[Notsince67]

Good point on the big shooters getting looks, but I did expect more coming off Marners plays rather than other skaters. To clarify, it's not that Marner didn't contribute to chances, it's a question of whether he contributed to them in a similar quantity as JT/Matthews.

Game 3 was likely his best as a whole and he was jumping. That's what I wanted to see more of. In and out of traffic, disrupting the D and making great passes. That was the game he sets Willy up for his PPG, setup Matthews for a great onetimer just prior and I'm pretty sure Mitch hit a post.

Curious on your thoughts for the regular season numbers. Any of that surprising for you or do you consider the increase in secondary assist "equal value" to the primary points decrease we saw this year?

Edit - I'm not trying to be unreasonable and am open to the idea that my bias from his contract and negotiations are clouding my judgement

I saw the team collapse when Marner was hurt. That I remember really well

 

[weems]

So here's what I see with Marner

In my eyes, he wasn't worth the 11M/yr he signed for on the day it was signed. Debatable, sure, but he's in tough to match that deal off the bat. In the year after he signed, his overall production was steady, but his Goals per game dropped as did his primary assist rates. That's both all situations and ES if you're curious. Not marginally either, primary points in all situations were down 11 points over a full season, ES is 17.

When I watch, I see a guy who isn't driving the play like he did the year prior. He's more passive, not as active in the offensive zone and not pulling defenders out of position as much because of it. *Checks stats* that aligns with the production and how I interpret it. Let me know what I'm missing here in your eyes

In playoffs, it was much of the same. I expect good possession numbers, honestly, I expect his to be the best. He's the primary handler on the team and the only one of the big 3 who spent every game with at least 1 other $11M player. Given CBJ was quick to drop the line and largely played passive D, the loaded line (his) should generate the most shot opportunities. Seems like they did - which is good.

What I would like to see for playoffs is how many opportunities he created. What role did he play in generating chances for his C's because he wasn't strong generating his own this year as a whole (compared to the year prior) which was steady in the season and playoffs.

Now none of this says Marner is bad, that'd be crazy to suggest. The question I have is how good is he and how good are we paying him to be.

Happy to look at other factors that I haven't considered or you interpret differently.

 

[Gallagbi]

Thanks, appreciate a thorough response. Was really hoping for more than what I got earlier.

 

[Notsince67]

Comparing Marner to the top offensive player in the series as proof that Marner didn't play well and the reason why Marner should be moved over Nylander is a pretty incongruous and puzzling

 

[Trapper]

Comparing Marner to the top offensive player in the series as proof that Marner didn't play well and the reason why Marner should be moved over Nylander is a pretty incongruous and puzzling

I think the reason (when it comes down to it) is high salary, 3rd double digit contract for a winger who isn’t a high goal scorer vs. lacking structure and dollars for defense/balance on the team.
If Marner was in the 8.5 Aho level it’s probably a different mindset. Not the fact that he isn’t Matthews.

 

[Notsince67]

I think the reason (when it comes down to it) is high salary, 3rd double digit contract for a winger who isn’t a high goal scorer vs. lacking structure and dollars for defense/balance on the team.
If Marner was in the 8.5 Aho level it’s probably a different mindset. Not the fact that he isn’t Matthews.

Oh I understand the mindset. Why arent we comparing Marner to Aho then?

 

[Legion34]

Oh I understand the mindset. Why arent we comparing Marner to Aho then?

weren’t you the one saying marner was better than Matthews for years? Why is that comparison an issue now?

Is Marner not better anymore?

 

[Legion34]

It seems to me that a lot of people here have little understanding of how a contract gets calculated.
This nonsense that Nylander was fairly paid and Marner was way overpaid is pure fantasy. They were both overpaid but their relative overpayment differences might surprise some.
From Marners perspective, his closest comparables was Patrick Kane. They are about as close as anyone given an apples to apples comparison of the 3 years leading to rfa. One might even favor Marner because his points were on an upward trajectory relatively speaking. Cap adjusted, Kane came in at around 9.04mm for 5 years. Marner gave up an additional 1 year of UFA. That tags an additional 15.9mm (max) to a comparable 6 year. That comes to 10.32mm for a 5 year deal....an overpayment of around .5mm.

Nylanders close co.parables was ehlers whose cap adjusted total would be something like 6.3mm for 7 years. Given that Nylander took 40% of his first year off, managed 7mm for 5.6years. 6 years would be trued up to 7.5mm. It is unlikely either of them would draw a maximum salary for their ufa years but assuming the same percentage increase as Marner ( for his ufa year) we could pull around 9.2mm off the ehlers contract and then true up to 6 years. That leaves 5.82mm for 6 years. A good argument of like terms has willy overpaid by 1.68mm over Marner who is .5mm over. This is totally without looking at their performance post elc...which Marner has performed better. Term and comparables matter. Based on only what we knew before Willy signed and before Marner signed, Dubas crapped the bed with Willy in a major way, exacerbated it with a big Matthew's signing. Matthew's contract would be closer to 12.345 had he given another year up like Marner.

Ehlers signed after 1 30 pt season and 1 60 pt season

willy had 2 60 pt seasons. His comparables were pasta and forsberg. Willy was almost exactly where predicted. Just 2 months late due to stupidity

 

[Notsince67]

weren’t you the one saying marner was better than Matthews for years? Why is that comparison an issue now?

Is Marner not better anymore?

Strawman argument presenting a 5 game sample size. Argue this issue with someone in high school. I'm not taking such a silly argument up here. It's off topic and irrelevant.

 

[Notsince67]

Ehlers signed after 1 30 pt season and 1 60 pt season

willy had 2 60 pt seasons. His comparables were pasta and forsberg. Willy was almost exactly where predicted. Just 2 months late due to stupidity

Yeah nice try. Ehlers had 3 years of elc and signed early. You dont pick 2 if his 3 and say all is rosy by dropping out his final elc year. Pasta is a bit of a joke. Nylander did not produce at his level and given the paid time off was paid effectively .9mm higher if you true up 5.6 years to 6 years.

 

[weems]

Comparing Marner to the top offensive player in the series as proof that Marner didn't play well and the reason why Marner should be moved over Nylander is a pretty incongruous and puzzling

This was actually posted because the previous poster asked for chance created stats etc.

It had more to do with the chart and what the stats said of Marner in the series than what he said at the end regarding Matthews.

Chill out man, I wasnt trying to attack Mitch.

 

[Legion34]

Yeah nice try. Ehlers had 3 years of elc and signed early. You dont pick 2 if his 3 and say all is rosy by dropping out his final elc year. Pasta is a bit of a joke. Nylander did not produce at his level and given the paid time off was paid effectively .9mm higher if you true up 5.6 years to 6 years.

????? You compare the value of the contract at the time it was signed. Ehlers had 2 years experience and 1 60 pt season. You think it’s logical to compare contract years AFTER the contract was signed.... that didn’t exist?

Does marners 90 pt season not matter to his contract? Because other player’s signed early?

Nylander waited and there are multiple comparables for him who signed 6 year deals all after ELC. Nylander signed in the middle of all of them.

 

[DarkKnight]

I see no real value viewing Marner’s contract in isolation. Nor do I see any merit in looking back at what Nylander extracted at the time and now arguing the upside. I look at the full story, with many actors, to decipher Dubas’ performance.

Prior to Nylander signing, we were all buying this RFA little leverage slant, because it was true. Instead, Willie managed to get the highest dollar(go look back at what posters here thought he’d get in the summer prior to his signing), with the added bonuses structure that made the deal even better for him. He didn’t sign for the max term, he won on the UFA front as well. Nylander checked all the boxes, his agent got it ALL. What he makes now relative to performance is entirely irrelevant to me, context matters.

Fast forward to Matthews, a spooked Dubas wanted to avoid any drama and effectively handed his camp everything they possibly could have wanted. The highest of dollars, the best of bonus and not sacrificing UFA, again he will be 26 now going back into the market. Good lord what a deal.

Now you have Marner’s agent watching Dubas pretty much acquiesce across the ledger with both RFA’s and suddenly we’re head scratching his comparables, his greed, his holding firm? Sure he was over paid, but some of us said for months prior he was getting double digit AAV because of the precedent, because our GM essentially was schooled twice imho.

The Big 3 are tied together, one could argue Tavares as well. To isolate Marner is to distort the narrative and it leaves me flat as to real understanding as to why this team sits in such a precarious position cap wise.

 

[Notsince67]

????? You compare the value of the contract at the time it was signed. Ehlers had 2 years experience and 1 60 pt season. You think it’s logical to compare contract years AFTER the contract was signed.... that didn’t exist?

Does marners 90 pt season not matter to his contract? Because other player’s signed early?

Nylander waited and there are multiple comparables for him who signed 6 year deals all after ELC. Nylander signed in the middle of all of them.

So let me get this straight. Ehlers gets signed at RFA-2 years at 64 points and 25 goals. Because he signed early, you are going to use a stat of RFA-3 years...a year where Nylander was playing in the AHL to balance an comparable average of Nylanders RFA-1 year? You realize players are assumed to develop?
At worse you use Ehlers RFA-2 x 2 years as an average. You dont go and pull an nhl stat of his when most players arent even in the nhl. Its absurd.

 

[Legion34]

So let me get this straight. Ehlers gets signed at RFA-2 years at 64 points and 25 goals. Because he signed early, you are going to use a stat of RFA-3 years...a year where Nylander was playing in the AHL to balance an comparable average of Nylanders RFA-1 year? You realize players are assumed to develop?
At worse you use Ehlers RFA-2 x 2 years as an average. You dont go and pull an nhl stat of his when most players arent even in the nhl. Its absurd.

I am using the careers of the players at the time that they are signed.

career games/goals/ points/
Points per game. Goals per game.

that’s the information they have at the time. Then you look at potential sure. But the lion share of salary is based on actual evidence.

nylander when he signed had almost identical stats to pasta. Signed for less cap %. If you want to argue “potential” then nylander should have got more than pasta. He was a higher pick can play C. Destroyed him in Sweden.... but clearly that would have been a mistake.

Same with ehlers. Nylander was outproducing sundin in sweden. Was a star in the AHL.

Google nylander contract comparables. There were multiple threads Articles and topics and comparisons. You have multiple comparables of players who had comparable

goals/games/points and per games to willy. They all signed between 8-9.25% AAV. Willy got right in the middle.

 

[DarkKnight]

So let me get this straight. Ehlers gets signed at RFA-2 years at 64 points and 25 goals. Because he signed early, you are going to use a stat of RFA-3 years...a year where Nylander was playing in the AHL to balance an comparable average of Nylanders RFA-1 year? You realize players are assumed to develop?
At worse you use Ehlers RFA-2 x 2 years as an average. You dont go and pull an nhl stat of his when most players arent even in the nhl. Its absurd.

How much was in signing bonus for Ehlers? Wasn’t that supposed to help the Leafs with AAV? So much revisionism with Willie now.

 

[Notsince67]

How much was in signing bonus for Ehlers? Wasn’t that supposed to help the Leafs with AAV? So much revisionism with Willie now.

I am using the careers of the players at the time that they are signed.

career games/goals/ points/
Points per game. Goals per game.

that’s the information they have at the time. Then you look at potential sure. But the lion share of salary is based on actual evidence.

nylander when he signed had almost identical stats to pasta. Signed for less cap %. If you want to argue “potential” then nylander should have got more than pasta. He was a higher pick can play C. Destroyed him in Sweden.... but clearly that would have been a mistake.

Same with ehlers. Nylander was outproducing sundin in sweden. Was a star in the AHL.

Google nylander contract comparables. There were multiple threads Articles and topics and comparisons. You have multiple comparables of players who had comparable

goals/games/points and per games to willy. They all signed between 8-9.25% AAV. Willy got right in the middle.

Yeah pretty sure that a 70pt 34 goal final ELC year<>61 pt 20 goal year. His year prior was also injury plagued.

 

[lottster14]

I admire your confidence in your own opinions though they are not quite in sync with what experts say. I do like how JT is overpaid and not at the same time...

What talking head professionals say are irrelevant. Marner and Tavares are objectively and obviously overpaid.

 

[Leafmealone11]

I am using the careers of the players at the time that they are signed.

career games/goals/ points/
Points per game. Goals per game.

that’s the information they have at the time. Then you look at potential sure. But the lion share of salary is based on actual evidence.

nylander when he signed had almost identical stats to pasta. Signed for less cap %. If you want to argue “potential” then nylander should have got more than pasta. He was a higher pick can play C. Destroyed him in Sweden.... but clearly that would have been a mistake.

Same with ehlers. Nylander was outproducing sundin in sweden. Was a star in the AHL.

Google nylander contract comparables. There were multiple threads Articles and topics and comparisons. You have multiple comparables of players who had comparable

goals/games/points and per games to willy. They all signed between 8-9.25% AAV. Willy got right in the middle.

Pasta had 34 goals and 70 points in 75 games, Nylander scored 20 goals and had 61 points in 82 games there is zero reason to suggest those numbers are identical or that Nylander should get more ._.or as much

 

[Legion34]

Yeah pretty sure that a 70pt 34 goal final ELC year<>61 pt 20 goal year. His year prior was also injury plagued.

You don’t negotiate on platform years only....... that would have made cheecho a 10 million dollar man. That’s how you get the marner contract.

Ehlers STILL has never matched his ELC plus 2 year...... he didn’t really progress.


Willy has remained about the same too. Pasta blew up. While being on the best line In hockey.......

you do realize that you compare marner to Kane are doing the exact same thing right? Kane went into the NHL d plus 1. Marner has the extra year in junior. But that doesn’t seem to matter then

 

[Legion34]

What talking head professionals say are irrelevant. Marner and Tavares are objectively and obviously overpaid.

JT was offered more by literally 5 other teams and took less. He is by definition underpaid.

 

[Notsince67]

You don’t negotiate on platform years only....... that would have made cheecho a 10 million dollar man. That’s how you get the marner contract.

Ehlers STILL has never matched his ELC plus 2 year...... he didn’t really progress.


Willy has remained about the same too. Pasta blew up. While being on the best line In hockey.......

you do realize that you compare marner to Kane are doing the exact same thing right? Kane went into the NHL d plus 1. Marner has the extra year in junior. But that doesn’t seem to matter then

I looked at RFA-1, RFA-2 and RFA-3 as I should have for the best comparison. You use what you got. You use data to compare apples with apples. This isnt a bingo card.

 

[Buds17]

JT was offered more by literally 5 other teams and took less. He is by definition underpaid.

That doesn't necessarily mean a player is underpaid though. It might just mean that he took less to be where he wanted to be the most. I ideally would have preferred an AAV closer to 10M, but not if it ultimately meant losing out on signing him.

 

[Menzinger]

I still don't understand the fixation with signing bonuses that some folks hold.

They have literally zero downsides for the team, and have nothing but positives if the team decides to move the player during the back half of their contact when they make little real dollars (at least to a potential trade partner whose a budget team).

They're also super common and havent really shown a history of reducing aav among players.