Toggle sidebar

Speculation: Marner or Nylander?

Who would you prefer to trade?

  • Total voters
    473
Status
Not open for further replies.
Notsince67

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,057
11,250
Gallagbi said:
Gotcha, I'm genuinely curious where that 500k number was coming from and remember you mentioning Kane as a comparable. Wasn't sure if that was the current or first contract he signed off ELC.

Interesting that the comparables are all primarily goal scorers whereas Mitch is a playmaker.

Also agree on the 8x8.5 that's a huge mistake IMO, Dubas's biggest
Click to expand...
Kane wasn't though
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
48,761
11,332
Notsince67 said:
Kane wasn't though
Click to expand...
Yeah, I wasn't sure if you still felt he was a comparable given Kane made $2M less than Mitch and was separated out. I wondered about Kovalchuk as well since he was so much higher than Mitch, but he signed right out of the "great lockout" in a lowered cap that was expected to rise quickly so he came in to Marner realm from a cap hit perspective pretty quickly
 
Notsince67

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,057
11,250
Gallagbi said:
Yeah, I wasn't sure if you still felt he was a comparable given Kane made $2M less than Mitch and was separated out. I wondered about Kovalchuk as well since he was so much higher than Mitch, but he signed right out of the "great lockout" in a lowered cap that was expected to rise quickly so he came in to Marner realm from a cap hit perspective pretty quickly
Click to expand...
Kane made 2mm less on a 5 year deal. Adding another UFA year (apples to apples) tacks a 15.9MM max. (9.04*5+15.9)/6=10.18mm
 
  • Like
Reactions: hullsy47
Notsince67

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,057
11,250
Gallagbi said:
Good point on the term, 15.9 seems high, but it would bring him up to the high 9s
Click to expand...
It isnt too high. Ufa years are a lot higher plus 6 years of cap inflation. In nominal dollars kane went from 6.3 to 10.5 on the next contract. It is quite an increase
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
48,761
11,332
Notsince67 said:
It isnt too high. Ufa years are a lot higher plus 6 years of cap inflation. In nominal dollars kane went from 6.3 to 10.5 on the next contract. It is quite an increase
Click to expand...
They didn't jack up his salary for the UFA year they bought on his second contract and a 50% premium on his current cap hit definitely seems too high. You'll say no, I'll say yes and around we go.

I do appreciate you expanding on your thought process, it's interesting to see it.
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
48,761
11,332
ToneDog said:
Was that before or after he won a SC ? If after, he earned the bump.
Click to expand...
He signed the contract in question half-way through his final ELC year. They won the cup that spring and lost in the WCF the year prior (his second year on ELC)
 
  • Like
Reactions: ToneDog
Menzinger

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
41,168
32,824
St. Paul, MN
Notsince67 said:
Kane made 2mm less on a 5 year deal. Adding another UFA year (apples to apples) tacks a 15.9MM max. (9.04*5+15.9)/6=10.18mm
Click to expand...

And why should folks presume that he in the position to justify that max deal on the extra yearl? It looks like youre arbitrarily tacking it on...
 
Notsince67

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,057
11,250
ToneDog said:
Was that before or after he won a SC ? If after, he earned the bump.
Click to expand...
Is that typically part of the formula? How much is a cup worth exactly per player? Does the pay disparity increase between great and average players on a team if they win a cup?
 
Notsince67

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,057
11,250
Menzinger said:
And why should folks presume that he in the position to justify that max deal on the extra yearl? It looks like youre arbitrarily tacking it on...
Click to expand...
No. I've seen enough valuations put together exactly like that. Why do you think a bridge deal is so cheap? Real $$ are scales upwards for young players and lower for older. If you think it's too large, back out 2 ufa years out of Marners contract at 12.9mm and then divide by 4 years. You will see that the 12.9mm is likely a conservative estimated weight for ufa years.
 
Notsince67

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,057
11,250
ToneDog said:
I'm guessing winning a SC plays a factor for most GMs. Apparently not so for the Leafs where it is Christmas 365 days/year.
Click to expand...
There is only 1 maximum cap and it needs to be distributed against every contract that comes up on the team. Notionally a percentage of the cap is a distributive strategy. Kane didn't win the cup alone.
 

Gabriel426

Registered User
Jun 30, 2015
16,661
10,277
Pretty interesting about the cap numbers and inflation.
But I think when it comes to Marner’s deal, we have to also examine what the other RFAs got that year. Look at what Aho and Rantanen got and compare all 3 will provide another picture.
 
  • Like
Reactions: saffronleaf
Notsince67

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,057
11,250
Gabriel426 said:
Pretty interesting about the cap numbers and inflation.
But I think when it comes to Marner’s deal, we have to also examine what the other RFAs got that year. Look at what Aho and Rantanen got and compare all 3 will provide another picture.
Click to expand...
The only picture you need is Nylander and Matthews
 
Menzinger

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
41,168
32,824
St. Paul, MN
Notsince67 said:
No. I've seen enough valuations put together exactly like that. Why do you think a bridge deal is so cheap? Real $$ are scales upwards for young players and lower for older. If you think it's too large, back out 2 ufa years out of Marners contract at 12.9mm and then divide by 4 years. You will see that the 12.9mm is likely a conservative estimated weight for ufa years.
Click to expand...

But what team is going to value a winger at 12.9m? At an 81.5m cap, that's still a higher cap % than what Kane got on his full UfA deal, what Panarin just got on his....
 
  • Like
Reactions: MJK and Beleafer34
Notsince67

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,057
11,250
Menzinger said:

But what team is going to value a winger at 12.9m? At an 81.5m cap, that's still a higher cap % than what Kane got on his full UfA deal, what Panarin just got on his....
Click to expand...
So now you are asking me why a person signed until for 10.5MM in 2014 seems lower than the current cap max?
The answer is that if you cap adjust that salary, it would be worth 12.4mm today. How much would you value a wingers 33rd year old year (end of his term) vs his 26 year old year? Hint...a wingers prime isnt at 33.
 
Menzinger

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
41,168
32,824
St. Paul, MN
Notsince67 said:
So now you are asking me why a person signed until for 10.5MM in 2014 seems lower than the current cap max?
The answer is that if you cap adjust that salary, it would be worth 12.4mm today. How much would you value a wingers 33rd year old year (end of his term) vs his 26 year old year? Hint...a wingers prime isnt at 33.
Click to expand...

No, that's not what I said at all. Kanes 3rd contract was worth less than 15% of the cap when it was signed.

What I don't understand is how Marner in this scenario justifying he's worth a higher cap% (or let's face it, an equal %) than Kane....

If Marner was somehow a 25 year old free agent I have little doubt that almost every team in the league would line up to try and sign him. What I'm skeptical on is that any of them would. Give him an aav higher than McDavid
 
  • Like
Reactions: stopclickbait
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Latest posts

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

Top Bottom