Speculation: Marner or Nylander?

Who would you prefer to trade?


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Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
41,168
32,824
St. Paul, MN
Well their RFA was clutch after his contract



The point contract is the one to watch when thinking about counterfactuals for the Leafs (keeping in mind Tampa players tend to give mild discounts).

Will see how well they do in the meantime vs what happens when they inevitably have to pay Point his money. Will see if maybe the Leafs should have bridged 1-2 of their young guys
 

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,057
11,250
No, that's not what I said at all. Kanes 3rd contract was worth less than 15% of the cap when it was signed.

What I don't understand is how Marner in this scenario justifying he's worth a higher cap% (or let's face it, an equal %) than Kane....

If Marner was somehow a 25 year old free agent I have little doubt that almost every team in the league would line up to try and sign him. What I'm skeptical on is that any of them would. Give him an aav higher than McDavid
I still dont understand.
The maximum salary when kane signed was 13.8MM. He got 10.5 around 13.8% of a 69MM cap after having an RFA that actually didnt do much compared to his elc. He wasnt even a point a game.

Marner signed at a cap of 81.5MM at about 13.4% 0f the cap. He is trending 1.13ppg on his contract so he is already outperforming Kane's rfa performance.
I dont understand the problem. Kanes elc comparables were pretty bang on to Marners (Marner actually weights better because of upward trend). Kane signed a whopping contract for his UFA contract that is higher than Marners yet you feel like it should have been higher just because he is Kane? Kanes rfa years were kind of crappy and at Marners pace, he is likely to sign a UFA contract far in excess of the cap adjusted contract that kane got of 12.4mm in todays dollars. It will be the difference between a less than 80 point per year player and a 90 to 100+ point player, depending on how Marner performs in the next 5 years.
 

nuck

Schrodingers Cat
Aug 18, 2005
11,409
2,487
It seems like everyone is convinced that one of those two need to go moving forward. Im curious to see what the fanbase thinks here.

1. Who would you trade? Why would you keep then other one you don’t want to trade?
2. Who will get traded (most likely)?
3. Would you trade tavares before those if you could?

I’ll start:
1. Marner. Too expensive and can get a really good defenceman for him. Nylander is much cheaper and can switch to center once john slows down in a couple of years.
2. Nylander before marner. But I also doubt either gets traded.
3. Probably......

Pretty much agree but for #3. I don't believe the JT signing was very smart when they had Kadri but with the lack of legit center prospects now in their system I keep him over the other two, if one HAD to go. Willie might become a center at some point but not sure of that so I wouldn't bet on a new void not being created. Plus JT isn't a power forward but he's a lot harder to push around in the dirty areas than Willie. They don't need two soft dangler centers in their top 6 unless they are going to add the Tkachuk brothers. And then you have got the stink it would leave on the organization luring the captain of another team "home" and then getting rid of him because we didn't get the math right.

With a time machine I never sign him at all, or I trade Willie as soon as I see him holding out on signing which probably means quicker and cheaper signings for Mitch and AM and they can afford to keep Kadri too.
 
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Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,057
11,250
The inflation makes sense. Tacking on a year at league max salary however, is horse manure.
Question. Kane's cap adjusted salary is 12.4mm for his ufa contract. How much weight should be given at 28 years old vs 33 years old?
Please describe ur rational in horse manure context.
 

All Mod Cons

Registered User
Sep 7, 2018
10,277
10,679
The point contract is the one to watch when thinking about counterfactuals for the Leafs (keeping in mind Tampa players tend to give mild discounts).

Will see how well they do in the meantime vs what happens when they inevitably have to pay Point his money. Will see if maybe the Leafs should have bridged 1-2 of their young guys
Meh. He'll sign for a lot less than he could imo.
 
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Ifittex il Verita

Registered User
Sep 11, 2019
260
275
That's without Stamkos to take the pressure off too, he's a game-breaker for sure. Makes Mitch look like an OHLer, especially with that muffin he's got for a shot, while Point has a bomb and picks corners with it
Marner's contract continues to look crappier. Marner disappears against Columbus, and Point steps up and takes over. Nauseating when you look at the difference in their paychecks.
 
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