I'm not sure Dowd nets a first either. Maybe with Edmundson or TVR bundled, both at half price and taking a contract back (to flip). But alone, even at half price, it may be more like a two and a three.
Teams like Edmonton are likely aiming for more offensive impact if they add a forward, though they do seem like the best fit if not. NYR/COL are seemingly more interested in Wennberg/Henrique type centers. Hard to pay that price for even the best 4C unless they're viewed as a passable 3C. And unlike some it's not like Dowd is nails in the face-off circle so as a pure specialist it isn't perfect. He's solid but a first is a hefty price.
Guentzel will net a first. Hanifin should. Buchnevich should. That may be it, though, particularly since a number of teams are depleted from moving picks the last year or two. Edmonton should move theirs. Maybe Vegas. Dallas could. The Rangers should. There are future firsts but overall not a great landscape for netting that sort of return, esp. compared to a little while ago when it was thought most contenders might part with theirs.