Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl's next contract

[Duke74]

This is a tricky proposition that requires careful consideration of many different aspects.

The first problem is that Draisaitl will feel that he's been underpaid for the last 6 years so he will want to recoup some of that money on his forthcoming contract.

However, Draisaitl has already shown signs of decline this year, which doesn't bode well for an aging player on an 8-year contract. If people think that he's slow and lazy now, what will he be like at even the halfway point of the contract at age 33-34? Depending on the cap, this could turn into a Lucic-type situation or worse.

And even if Draisaitl avoids a rapid decline and performs reasonably well, we have little money to spend on the rest of the roster. Keep in mind McDavid and Bouchard will also need significant increases.

The other issue is the McDavid factor and the possibility that if Draisaitl leaves, McDavid also leaves. As someone mentioned, I wonder if he and McDavid have already talked about this situation and discussed different ramifications.

There's a lot to think about between now and July. Of course, if Draisaitl is insistent about leaving, this discussion becomes moot.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

14x8 Leon
16x8 Connor

Cap is going to be well over 100M by the time these deals are even half over.

 

[Draiskull]

This is a tricky proposition that requires careful consideration of many different aspects.

The first problem is that Draisaitl will feel that he's been underpaid for the last 6 years so he will want to recoup some of that money on his forthcoming contract.

However, Draisaitl has already shown signs of decline this year, which doesn't bode well for an aging player on an 8-year contract. If people think that he's slow and lazy now, what will he be like at even the halfway point of the contract at age 33-34? Depending on the cap, this could turn into a Lucic-type situation or worse.

And even if Draisaitl avoids a rapid decline and performs reasonably well, we have little money to spend on the rest of the roster. Keep in mind McDavid and Bouchard will also need significant increases.

The other issue is the McDavid factor and the possibility that if Draisaitl leaves, McDavid also leaves. As someone mentioned, I wonder if he and McDavid have already talked about this situation and discussed different ramifications.

There's a lot to think about between now and July. Of course, if Draisaitl is insistent about leaving, this discussion becomes moot.

Draisaitl burned minimal number of UFA years so he was not underpaid for someone in his ELC +1 contract. His contract cannot be compared to someone like Nurse (9.5M of all UFA yrs) but more like Makar and his 9M per 2027.

He will get his 12.5M Ala MacKinnon. We just afford to drag it til the end. Either extend him next offseason season or trade him with his value fairly high

 

[SupremeTeam16]

They would make less if they took short term deals. Drai and McDavid would be like 32 years old. They're not getting 15M at 32-33 years old

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Look how productive Crosby/Malkin and other elite players have remained into their late 30’s. I don’t think it’s even a question someone would offer them that kind of money. By the time they are signing those deals at 31-31 in 4-5 years time the cap will be significantly higher and 15M AAV will be a much smaller percentage of it.

Of course there is risk of injury or regression in play but if you’re either of those guys you’re probably pretty confident you’re gonna be performing at a very high level at 32 years old. Signing a shorter deal and then signing a big money long term deal later would likely increase career earnings significantly

 

[Arpeggio]

I'm in the blank check to Draisaitl and McDavid camp. Keeping these guys at any cost is worth more than attempting to balance out the roster with the savings. This team becomes irrelevant the second McDavid leaves.

 

[PositiveCashFlow]

Can we give them equity stake in the team?

 

[brentashton]

14x8 Leon
16x8 Connor

Cap is going to be well over 100M by the time these deals are even half over.

In that zip code for sure. Katz needs $$ in the bank at time of signing as I suspect a large amount will need to be immediate signing bonus to ward off the parasite teams looking to sign both.

 

[brentashton]

Can we give them equity stake in the team?

I suspect you could but you’d still have to assign a present valuation to it so that cap implications could be calculated.

@Fourier can probably better answer.

 

[McOilers97]

I think Drai offers the same or even more risk than those two. RNH signed his deal at the age of 28, is an effortless skater and doesn’t play a real physical game, so I think he has the best chance of delivering elite play into the latter years of his deal than the other two would. Hyman signed his deal at the age of 29, but for one less year, and we knew at the time that the risk of his latter years being a bit risky was possible. Drai will be 30 in the year his new contract kicks in, has to work his ass off skating wise due to his body type, and takes a beating out there. I could see his contract aging the worst of the three by the end, due to his age and style of play.

If you mean that Draisaitl will drop off by a greater % than RNH, then maybe. Don’t kid yourself though, Drai produces like 30-40 more points per season (on average) than RNH does, so even a declined version of Draisaitl at 35-36 will probably be as good or better player than RNH is right now at 30. I know the cap hit does matter though, RNH at $5.125m vs Drai at $12-13m+.

 

[Da McBomb]

Lifelong Oilers with a major street/avenue named after them when they're done.... and of course a statue for 97... do it

 

[5 14 6 1]

Pay the man what he wants, him and McDavid for life please

 

[Kerberos]

Give him and McDavid the Ohtani deal.

 

[Fourier]

I suspect you could but you’d still have to assign a present valuation to it so that cap implications could be calculated.

@Fourier can probably better answer.

I am sure that an equity stake would not be allowed.

 

[Fishy McScales]

I am sure that an equity stake would not be allowed.

Yeah I imagine it would open up a big can of worms if the player moves to a different team.

 

[Mr Positive]

Will have grown? McDavid contract kicked in 2018-19 when the cap was 79.5M. 6 years into his contract, it's at 83.5M today lol. We gotta stop thinking the cap will grow significantly lol

It's all but guaranteed to jump by 4 million this year, and Drai's deal doesn't start until the year after that. It's 5 million minimum. And we're using McDavid as a benchmark of course, and that deal has two years left after this one. Of course only 500k increase to 13 aav would amount to a big pay cut after 8 years of cap growth.

 

[5 14 6 1]

Give him and McDavid the Ohtani deal.

Can they defer 95% of the contract too?

 

[Oildrum]

I could see a similar deal to Pastranaks (8x11.25) so around 8x12. Very similar players.

 

[bellagiobob]

If you mean that Draisaitl will drop off by a greater % than RNH, then maybe. Don’t kid yourself though, Drai produces like 30-40 more points per season (on average) than RNH does, so even a declined version of Draisaitl at 35-36 will probably be as good or better player than RNH is right now at 30. I know the cap hit does matter though, RNH at $5.125m vs Drai at $12-13m+.

It was just a comment on the posters view that Drai's would remain elite during his next deal, and not see the drop off that Nuge and Hyman would, which I don't think is the case.

While I think it would be neat to see certain players (McDrai) play their entire career as Oilers, it's not as important as ensuring that we stay competitive as they age. I think McDavid will still be reasonably effective till he is 40, if he wants to play that long, so have no real trepidation signing him to an 8 year deal when his expires. Drai, I would much prefer a 5 or 6 year deal (I get that the player will likely want 8 years), as Drai at 37 or 38 may not be a pretty sight.

 

[Canovin]

Can they defer 95% of the contract too?

Ohtani deal was 97% which is 2M. You can say it's the 297 McDrai deal

 

[Fourier]

Can they defer 95% of the contract too?

Actually yes and no on deferral, though nothing like the Ohtani deal. They can't avoid/defer the cap but in Canada there is something called a Retirement Compensation Arrangement (RCA) that allows the players to defer taxes and eliminates some payroll taxes for the team.

RCA and professional athletes - GBL

For the financial planner, there are a number of unique concerns to address when providing overall compensation strategies for professional athletes such as NHL or NBA players: The athlete will have a comparatively short career, likely lasting a decade or less. Salaries are considerable during...

gblinc.ca

 

[BlackDogg]

Make sure it has performance clauses.

 

[29Beast97Mode]

I could see 7 years and aav 13 mil per year. But the actual contract is decreasing from the age of 33. Also most of the money will be yearly signing bonus money and like 1 mil in actual salary.

 

[MoontoScott]

In our super inflationary world ---8 years at $16 million for McDavid sounds about right. I wonder though, if the cap does soar to $100 Million per season then what will parking and/or beer cost at the games? At what point do even corporations balk at the price?

Money itself is approaching the point where its value might be questioned. Just ask the USA Federal government. Their debt level (as announced yesterday) has now surpassed 34 trillion dollars. Yup $34*10^12 with an additional treasury requirement (borrowing) of 1 Trillion dollars expected in the next 3 months. Fascinating to watch the wheels go round, I really love to watch them roll. I wonder what currency hockey players will be paid in 20 years from now--interesting times we live in.

 

[PositiveCashFlow]

Give him and McDavid the Ohtani deal.

Have his doppelgänger get on a plane to Toronto beforehand to freak out the Toronto media outlets

 

[Stoneman89]

Draisaitl is worth more than Nylander. You may be right but that would be a gift to the team

I think Nylander is the best player on the Leafs and should get a nice number. I think around 11.5 is more than fair for Drai.