Le Retour des Nordiques Partie XV: La lumière au bout du tunnel

[Hal1971]

why cant hamilton...or another TO team be the soft landing spot?

Is it possible that this expension process was really to separate expension city from relocation city ?

I'm sure the NHL know now where they can put a reloc team and Québec and Vegas, since they are willing to pay the price will get expension ?

 

[powerstuck]

This is how I feel about all the recent rumors.

 

[mikelvl]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/960/the-big-show/friedman-expansion-not-a-slam-dunk/

Elliotte Friedman is also opining that Quebec City may have to wait. That now may not be the best time for the NHL to grant an expansion team to QC due to the loonie price amongst other reasons. Worth a listen but not encouraging.

To summarize somewhat:
- He feels that the league may be pumping the brakes a bit, surprised at the amount of caution being shown
- Concerned about the corporate support in QC combined with the state of the Cdn dollar
- Feels that now may not be the right time. For the health of the organization, it may be better to wait on QC until the Cdn $ is back.
- With the expansion fee, potential fee to Montreal, Cdn $, there could be trouble if league goes there now
- League was hoping that Seattle would be ready, that is why they started expansion process now. May want to keep QC as a relocation option for a struggling team

 

[Killion]

Elliotte Friedman is also opining that Quebec City may have to wait. That now may not be the best time for the NHL to grant an expansion team to QC due to the loonie price amongst other reasons. Worth a listen but not encouraging.

Yeah, look, my attitude & opinion of guys like Friedman & others is that their playing it to the hilt, absolute Click Bait in hypothesizing such, driving ratings in being deliberately provocative. Neither QC nor LV would drop a non-refundable $20M Expansion Application Fee, and QC would not be developing the area around the new arena to the extent that they are without the fix being in. Its absolutely implausible, beyond ridiculous for Friedman or anyone else to suggest otherwise.

 

[ticats4]

Don't see how not bringing the Nordiques back at this point cannot be seen as anything else but a slap in the face to QC...

I also don't see how Quebecor (a business partner of the league, no less!!) would go through these motions without some assurance at this point...

 

[plbabin]

I usually like Friedman, but that blog post sounds like some BS to me

- Concerned about the corporate support in QC combined with the state of the Cdn dollar
- Feels that now may not be the right time. For the health of the organization, it may be better to wait on QC until the Cdn $ is back.

Corporate boxes are almost soldout right now for the junior team (35k 1st year, 40k 2nd year and 70k 3rd year). Owner of the box have 24 hours to signed up for NHL one the second the team is back. You don't signed up for a junior hockey corporate box at that price without having an eye on the NHL

As for the Cad $, Mark Chipman says on TSN radio maybe one month ago that the Cdn $ doesn't impact that much the operation of the team compare to 20 years ago. CAD Teams have some USD incomes that balance the fact that the Cad $ is low right now. And you long term with that, not just a span of 2-3 years.

- With the expansion fee, potential fee to Montreal, Cdn $, there could be trouble if league goes there now

Montreal owner said that there will be no location fees if the league expand to Quebec

- League was hoping that Seattle would be ready, that is why they started expansion process now. May want to keep QC as a relocation option for a struggling team

Why wait to cash a premium price right now so you can maybe have Seattle ready for in 3-5 years. Doesn't make sense

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Why wait to cash a premium price right now so you can maybe have Seattle ready for in 3-5 years. Doesn't make sense

I agree. If the Coyotes are going to relocate (and let's be frank, that's what everyone here, McKenzie, and Friedman are all alluding to), it stands to reason that they're going to go to Seattle. Quebecor not only has the facilities but the financial werewithal to pay an expansion fee, if what I've seen reported on this board is correct. The only roadblock for QC is the NHL - everyone else is fully onboard. The same holds true for Las Vegas, which has already built its facility and lacks any other pro sports teams to divert attention.

Seattle, on the other hand, not only has to fight a political battle just to get an arena built, but it also doesn't have an ownership group who are capable of tacking on a cool half-billion dollars in expansion fees on top of the facility construction. Getting a relocated team lessens the cost-to-play for a group who would have no chance at all otherwise.

 

[Killion]

...Seattle, on the other hand, not only has to fight a political battle just to get an arena built, but it also doesn't have an ownership group who are capable of tacking on a cool half-billion dollars in expansion fees on top of the facility construction. Getting a relocated team lessens the cost-to-play for a group who would have no chance at all otherwise.

Yeah absolutely, agree, thats my working hypothesis on this as well. The NHL can & will announce whatever number they want as close to $500M in a Relo Sale that they want. Make it up for public consumption. Maintain the artificial facade that franchises everywhere are now worth at minimum $500M. Others like Toronto, Detroit, LA etc obviously a lot more. Theyve been playing that game for ages, most notably with the Vinik purchase in Tampa. Just how within 4 short years you have the Thrasher sale at $110M with a $60M Relo Fee, or how the Coyotes go from a reported sale of $170M in 2013 to being then valued at $305M not 12mnths later, well, who's zoomin who?

 

[Pilky01]

Yeah, look, my attitude & opinion of guys like Friedman & others is that their playing it to the hilt, absolute Click Bait in hypothesizing such, driving ratings in being deliberately provocative. Neither QC nor LV would drop a non-refundable $20M Expansion Application Fee, and QC would not be developing the area around the new arena to the extent that they are without the fix being in. Its absolutely implausible, beyond ridiculous for Friedman or anyone else to suggest otherwise.

The non refundable fee is the big sticking point for me as well. For as two faced as Gary is publicly, he is not a stupid man and he knows that pocketing an expansion fee and then saying "better luck next time" de-legitimizes any future attempt to extract expansion fees.

I am more inline with your thinking...this "oh no, QC might not happen!" narrative is just attention ******* because "nothing to report" doesn't get traffic.

 

[GF]

Well there are a couple fires that will need to be put away shortly.

Carolina and Phoenix are in trouble and to some extent Florida.

I see LV getting an expansion and the Canes moving to Quebec. Then they will need to deal with Phoenix. Their plan probably is to relocate to Seattle in which case, shovels need to hit the ground like right now (yesterday being even better).

If the NHL gives Qc and LV a team, they are in big trouble as soon as any one of the troubled franchises need to move, they litterally had no other bids and nowhere to fall back to.

Imagine how pissed QC/Vegas would be if they have to pay 500m$ only to see the Coyotes move the same year to a new city for a discount price (let's say 200m$?) because the NHL has no other choice... If I were PKP I'd damn well include a clause where the NHL needs to refund me the difference should such a scenario occurs.

 

[Fugu]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/960/the-big-show/friedman-expansion-not-a-slam-dunk/

Elliotte Friedman is also opining that Quebec City may have to wait. That now may not be the best time for the NHL to grant an expansion team to QC due to the loonie price amongst other reasons. Worth a listen but not encouraging.

To summarize somewhat:
- He feels that the league may be pumping the brakes a bit, surprised at the amount of caution being shown
- Concerned about the corporate support in QC combined with the state of the Cdn dollar
- Feels that now may not be the right time. For the health of the organization, it may be better to wait on QC until the Cdn $ is back.
- With the expansion fee, potential fee to Montreal, Cdn $, there could be trouble if league goes there now
- League was hoping that Seattle would be ready, that is why they started expansion process now. May want to keep QC as a relocation option for a struggling team

Here's a blurb from LeBrun (LS posted a thread on just the expansion draft issue).

• Part of Quebecor’s presentation Tuesday to the executive committee of the Board of Governors was to detail a long-term business plan that accounts for the vagaries of an unpredictable Canadian dollar. Not surprisingly, there are some NHL governors concerned that a dipping Canadian dollar doesn’t seem healthy for Quebec City’s revenue potential. In fact, one member of the executive committee asked Quebecor just that. But Quebecor’s message on Tuesday apparently was that it can survive and still thrive regardless of the Canadian dollar. That’s a real important part of their sales pitch right now.
• Don’t discount the presence and participation in Tuesday’s presentation of former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney. It remains an issue with some governors that Pierre Karl Peladeau, Quebecor’s controlling shareholder, is the leader of the Parti Quebecois and a separatist. Having Mulroney involved might calm some of those concerns. Well maybe, maybe not.

We'd only heard rumblings on random blogs earlier about the concern the BOG had wrt PKP's political leanings, so here it is in a mainstream piece. PKP is the money behind the effort, so having Mulroney onboard isn't really all that assuring, if this concern is an issue with some of the BOG. It might explain why this odd marriage happened in the first place.

However, the more important point, I think, is the CAD issue. Quebecor would likely be able to backstop the money when the CAD is low, but one should keep in mind that this is a corporation with shareholders and governance practices. Just because you have cash or can raise it, does it mean you should be subsidizing an NHL team's operations with it when your primary business isn't the NHL team?

This is a valid question. If the player spending turns out to be 70% of their HRR, this is an expenditure payable only in USD, a fluctuating CAD can wreak havoc with what that percentage turns out to be, in reality.

And....just like in Vegas, what if the day comes when Quebecor wishes to divest itself of the team (changes in management, etc.)? These beyond ridiculous fee paid to get in is simply ludicrous for a market of this size. It does not pencil out, and it may well be crippling, ROI deferred for a decade or more!

 

[Fugu]

I agree. If the Coyotes are going to relocate (and let's be frank, that's what everyone here, McKenzie, and Friedman are all alluding to), it stands to reason that they're going to go to Seattle. Quebecor not only has the facilities but the financial werewithal to pay an expansion fee, if what I've seen reported on this board is correct. The only roadblock for QC is the NHL - everyone else is fully onboard. The same holds true for Las Vegas, which has already built its facility and lacks any other pro sports teams to divert attention.

Seattle, on the other hand, not only has to fight a political battle just to get an arena built, but it also doesn't have an ownership group who are capable of tacking on a cool half-billion dollars in expansion fees on top of the facility construction. Getting a relocated team lessens the cost-to-play for a group who would have no chance at all otherwise.

My feeling is that the Seattle would-be owners are the only ones with any sense. They know that an enterprise value of nearly a billion doesn't pencil out. If it doesn't make sense in Seattle, it certainly doesn't pencil out in Vegas or QC, but here we are.

 

[Nordskull]

Not again that separation thing?

Don't bring that politics fiction creation again please. Peladeau will never be PM. Never.

When the NHL accepted the Nordiques in 1979, it was the "separatists" that were at government here.

The current situation is we'll have the liberals for 100 years.

 

[powerstuck]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/960/the-big-show/friedman-expansion-not-a-slam-dunk/

Elliotte Friedman is also opining that Quebec City may have to wait. That now may not be the best time for the NHL to grant an expansion team to QC due to the loonie price amongst other reasons. Worth a listen but not encouraging.

To summarize somewhat:
- He feels that the league may be pumping the brakes a bit, surprised at the amount of caution being shown
- Concerned about the corporate support in QC combined with the state of the Cdn dollar
- Feels that now may not be the right time. For the health of the organization, it may be better to wait on QC until the Cdn $ is back.
- With the expansion fee, potential fee to Montreal, Cdn $, there could be trouble if league goes there now
- League was hoping that Seattle would be ready, that is why they started expansion process now. May want to keep QC as a relocation option for a struggling team

Look, Friedman has his opinion and his sources and I respect that.

But for bloody hell, we're in 2015 and NHL is not a kids playground. On one page they write in big letter they are worried about the Canadian dollar and how it may stop expansion into Canada or Quebec City.

On the other page they are writing in sparkling letters they hope to see the league reach $4,5G revenues.

Well guess what, someone in the NHL office failed their elementary school math classes. When about 40-50% of total of your revenues come from Canada, you cannot expect reaching almost 35% increase in revenues all while being worries about the hand that feeds you.

I feel like some people have the need to rumble on expansions and will it happen will it not because well, it's about a week before the start of the regular season and they cannot wait to talk about hockey but there is nothing crunchy to talk about right now.

 

[Nordskull]

Look, Friedman has his opinion and his sources and I respect that.

But for bloody hell, we're in 2015 and NHL is not a kids playground. On one page they write in big letter they are worried about the Canadian dollar and how it may stop expansion into Canada or Quebec City.

On the other page they are writing in sparkling letters they hope to see the league reach $4,5G revenues.

Well guess what, someone in the NHL office failed their elementary school math classes. When about 40-50% of total of your revenues come from Canada, you cannot expect reaching almost 35% increase in revenues all while being worries about the hand that feeds you.

I feel like some people have the need to rumble on expansions and will it happen will it not because well, it's about a week before the start of the regular season and they cannot wait to talk about hockey but there is nothing crunchy to talk about right now.

 

[Ugmo]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/960/the-big-show/friedman-expansion-not-a-slam-dunk/

"Feels that now may not be the right time. For the health of the organization, it may be better to wait on QC until the Cdn $ is back."

For the health of the organization, maybe the league shouldn't gouge them with a 500 million U.S. dollar expansion fee!

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Well there are a couple fires that will need to be put away shortly.

Carolina and Phoenix are in trouble and to some extent Florida.

I see LV getting an expansion and the Canes moving to Quebec. Then they will need to deal with Phoenix. Their plan probably is to relocate to Seattle in which case, shovels need to hit the ground like right now (yesterday being even better).

If the NHL gives Qc and LV a team, they are in big trouble as soon as any one of the troubled franchises need to move, they litterally had no other bids and nowhere to fall back to.

Imagine how pissed QC/Vegas would be if they have to pay 500m$ only to see the Coyotes move the same year to a new city for a discount price (let's say 200m$?) because the NHL has no other choice... If I were PKP I'd damn well include a clause where the NHL needs to refund me the difference should such a scenario occurs.

Care to elaborate on this a bit? Our STH sales increased over the off season, the team has a solid group of prospects and while it likely won't make the playoffs, if it stays healthy, should be reasonably competitive.

Attendance isn't as much of an issue as people make it out to be either. The arena looks empty sometimes because of how big it is, don't forget NC State basketball plays there also. The hockey fans will come back when we're competitive again, it is a passionate fanbase and even with the tire fire we were last year, we only drew 100,000 fewer fans than winnipeg for example.

To quote a good friend of mine:

Don Waddell spoke at the Raleigh Sports Club yesterday and hit on a few salient points here.

• The team is still for sale, but relocation from Raleigh is NOT being contemplated - "This franchise eventually will get sold, but it’s not leaving Raleigh."
• Waddell has purchased a house in Raleigh and he "wouldn’t be buying a house if I thought we were leaving the city."
• A $50M - $70M expansion/renovation of PNC Arena is being planned
• While average attendance went down last year, the team also reduced the number of complimentary and reduced tickets to put more of a premium on STHs
• # of STHs has increased by an unspecified amount - first time in the last six years that there's been growth among the STH base
• Waddell not opposed to ads so long as they're limited to a small patch near the shoulder on home jerseys only

 

[MadSnowman42]

If the player spending turns out to be 70% of their HRR, this is an expenditure payable only in USD, a fluctuating CAD can wreak havoc with what that percentage turns out to be, in reality.

This may be a stupid question, but do teams not hedge these risks associated with currency exchange rates with the appropriate financial market instruments?

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

This may be a stupid question, but do teams not hedge these risks associated with currency exchange rates with the appropriate financial market instruments?

I know the Blue Jays by loads and I mean *LOADS* of USD whenever it makes sense and then just sit on them. I'd surmise the canadian NHL teams do they same.

 

[MadSnowman42]

I know the Blue Jays by loads and I mean *LOADS* of USD whenever it makes sense and then just sit on them. I'd surmise the canadian NHL teams do they same.

Well, that would be a rather unorthodox strategy because it requires you to have spare cash en masse. What about foreign exchange swaps?

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Well, that would be a rather unorthodox strategy because it requires you to have spare cash en masse. What about foreign exchange swaps?

By "sit on", I meant put in interest earning accounts. I obviously have no way of knowing for sure, but my gut tells me that there does not exist a canadian professional sports team in any league that really does any business at all with CAD.

 

[mikelvl]

I want the Nordiques back in the league yesterday, ASAP. I am in agreement with most of you on here.

That being said, I hope this is not a situation of 'where there's smoke, there's fire' as now LeBrun, Friedman, McKenzie, and Pagnotta have opined on the possibility of only Vegas getting a team this time around. I hope this is more to do with one more week of dead air to fill until the fun starts next Wednesday.

 

[Randal61]

Care to elaborate on this a bit? Our STH sales increased over the off season, the team has a solid group of prospects and while it likely won't make the playoffs, if it stays healthy, should be reasonably competitive.

Attendance isn't as much of an issue as people make it out to be either. The arena looks empty sometimes because of how big it is, don't forget NC State basketball plays there also. The hockey fans will come back when we're competitive again, it is a passionate fanbase and even with the tire fire we were last year, we only drew 100,000 fewer fans than winnipeg for example.

To quote a good friend of mine:

Regarding the Winnipeg comparison, what is the average ticket price?

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Regarding the Winnipeg comparison, what is the average ticket price?

I haven't been back in state for a few years now, so I can not say exactly, but a quick search of stubhub for the season opener against Detroit has singles from anywhere from $30-$330 ($41-$441 CAD)

 

[Nordskull]

Come on!

They would launch an expansion process, ask 2M from a major media Partner pourring billions, and then say well, its not time for you?

Never.

No doubt for me, everything's is settled.

As there's no emergency landing ready, if a team is in deep trouble later, they would fold that franchise, period.