Lame Duck GM; How Much Power Should Holland Have? Should He Have Been Fired?

[kliq]

don't forget that he was very good at the time when you can buy Stanly cup . Time has change , it is Yaserman like GM time

2002 maybe, but '97, '98 and '08 were pretty organic.

 

[ShelbyZ]

I
Well you can do the same if you trade Howard this year. You can sign Mrazek and trade him.

Why would a team cough up good assets for a "sign/trade" with Mrazek, when they could give the Red Wings nothing and then wait to pick him up for what he's actually worth on the UFA market? I'd even argue that guys like Hutton, Dell and even Khudobin will be considered for starting or 1B roles before a team decides to spend assets on a $4.15M unproven Mrazek...

2002 maybe, but '97, '98 and '08 were pretty organic.

FWIW, Holland wasn't GM until the '98 Cup and that was mostly a continuation of the '97 roster.

I also think the notion that any Cup was "bought" is silly. Holland traded a legit top 6 forward and futures for a future HOF goalie, and then convinced a couple of future HOF wingers to take tons less money than other teams were offering to replace the top 6 forward traded for Hasek and another one that got a ridiculous overpayment from the Bruins. The Avs won a Cup in 2001 with a high payroll, but no one talks about how that one was bought, they just fawn over Ray Bourque.

 

[kliq]

Why would a team cough up good assets for a "sign/trade" with Mrazek, when they could give the Red Wings nothing and then wait to pick him up for what he's actually worth on the UFA market? I'd even argue that guys like Hutton, Dell and even Khudobin will be considered for starting or 1B roles before a team decides to spend assets on a $4.15M unproven Mrazek...



FWIW, Holland wasn't GM until the '98 Cup and that was mostly a continuation of the '97 roster.

I also think the notion that any Cup was "bought" is silly. Holland traded a legit top 6 forward and futures for a future HOF goalie, and then convinced a couple of future HOF wingers to take tons less money than other teams were offering to replace the top 6 forward traded for Hasek and another one that got a ridiculous overpayment from the Bruins. The Avs won a Cup in 2001 with a high payroll, but no one talks about how that one was bought, they just fawn over Ray Bourque.

Ya I know, he was a part of the scouting department in '97. My point was that the team wasn't "bought" for those cups.

Also with Hull and Robitialle, other vets took money out of their salary to help bring them to the Wings.

 

[Redder Winger]

I don't know why you continue to assume that Darren Helm (who no one wanted for free in the expansion draft) and Jimmy Howard (33 year old injury prone goaltender) have a list of suitors lining up for them, and Holland is just refusing to trade them.

I mean the more likely scenario is no one wants our old, beatup, overpaid players... they prefer our young, cheaper, useful players.

Well, for one, Custance reports that Howard has suitors.
And that Holland would prefer to trade Mrazek.

Secondly, if you retained a little bit on Helm, he becomes a $2.8M 3rd liner C/W PK guy - a lot more value.
Common sense says that kind of guy would have SOME value.

 

[jkutswings]

Well, for one, Custance reports that Howard has suitors.
And that Holland would prefer to trade Mrazek.

Secondly, if you retained a little bit on Helm, he becomes a $2.8M 3rd liner C/W PK guy - a lot more value.
Common sense says that kind of guy would have SOME value.

Helm would have fantastic value at the deadline if he were an expiring contract, or good value if he still had one year left. Same with Abdelkader. But nobody is going to line up for the liability of a long term deal on those guys, even with retention, and I don't see Detroit as willing to retain for that many years, since it effectively becomes a buyout at that point.

Realistically, the most activity to hope for would be Green, Nyquist, and one of the goalies, with a Booth or an XO as a footnote filler. The rest are either here for too long, and/or have too little talent to be traded now, as opposed to during the summer.

As for Holland, either he returns, or he should be canned as soon as the regular season is over, to maximize the time that the new guy has to prep for the draft. But firing him before this year - even if you knew he was done after this season - was never happening with this franchise. And unless they already had an A1 replacement lined up, there was no need anyway.

 

[Oddbob]

I don't think he'd do so deliberately.

But here's what I'm saying.
Use a crystal ball to the best of your ability.

In 4-5 years, what is the likelihood that the following players will be useful NHL players.

Sheahan, 30-31 - I'd say 80 percent, he'll be around as a 3rd/4th liner and have value, as long as he's not overpaid.
Darren Helm, 35-36 - I'd say 50 percent. He's not that old, nearing the end. And he's had a lot of injuries, so he might be retired. By then his ugly contract will be over and if he's still in the NHL, it will probably be for a much smaller deal.
Frans Nielsen, 37-38 - About 50 percent. But he's probably a noose around some franchise's neck

So if you're a team that's mostly likely rebuilding, which 3/4 center do you trade?
My priority is to keep Sheahan.

Same sort of thing with Howard/Mrazek.
People will say, ah but you can trade Howard next year.
Well you can do the same if you trade Howard this year. You can sign Mrazek and trade him.

Are these awful mistakes?
I don't know.
How does Sheahan go from 9;03 a night in Detroit to 15:44 for the two-time defending Stanley Cup champs.
I'd say there's something wrong with the way we used him and that our our coach/GM miss-assessed him.

I think the same thing could happen with Mrazek.

Any player is going to look good playing for a winning team and having a red hot player on their line. Do we have a spare Kessel floating around to make Sheahan look good? Or a Hornqvist that we can park on the third line most of the time, when for most teams he would be a 2nd liner? No, we have mostly no one to make weaker Sheahan like players look good. It isn't exactly like he is setting the world on fire over there either. I have read numerous complaints from Pens fans wishing they could have that trade back. Also, icetime increase doesn't mean much, other than that a given coach likes you, ala Glendening, when Babcock was here, he played 15 minutes a night which is too much as everyone knows, yet the coach decides who plays a lot, doesn't make that player really good all of a sudden.

Honestly we must watch a different version of the Wings or something, as Sheahan did very little that was impressive. He was given PP time, didn't make a good net front presence, didn't put up pts. He played on the PK, wasn't any better than anyone else. And at 5 on 5 he was nearly invisible as far as anything impactful goes. Then for the past year and a half with us, he stopped providing once in a while goals, so became AHL fodder, which we got a 3rd for in a good draft. You seem to have a penchant for pretending that the grass is greener with whichever player we get rid of, despite a largely different reality. Mursak got a chance, did nothing, then went back to Europe, Pulks did next to nothing, went elsewhere and is in the minors, so likely not NHL material, Jurco did nothing for us, got traded and is doing all of nothing with Chicago. Jarnkrok didn't get a chance with us, however he is a 3rd liner, which is fine and all, but wouldn't be the player that makes us better than we are currently or in the future, and Janmark is much the same in Dallas. I think I covered most of the "missed opportunity" guys! All in all, we haven't given up on all star or game changing players, and honestly aren't doing bad with player development considering we have hardly any high picks in recent memory. Most of the players we have drafted have turned into about what you expect players to be, given where we got them. For every Larkin, Mantha sitting at 15-20 overall, there are thousands of Pulkkinen's and Sheahan's that are nothing to take note of.

 

[Redder Winger]

Any player is going to look good playing for a winning team and having a red hot player on their line. Do we have a spare Kessel floating around to make Sheahan look good? Or a Hornqvist that we can park on the third line most of the time, when for most teams he would be a 2nd liner? No, we have mostly no one to make weaker Sheahan like players look good. It isn't exactly like he is setting the world on fire over there either. I have read numerous complaints from Pens fans wishing they could have that trade back. Also, icetime increase doesn't mean much, other than that a given coach likes you, ala Glendening, when Babcock was here, he played 15 minutes a night which is too much as everyone knows, yet the coach decides who plays a lot, doesn't make that player really good all of a sudden.

Honestly we must watch a different version of the Wings or something, as Sheahan did very little that was impressive. He was given PP time, didn't make a good net front presence, didn't put up pts. He played on the PK, wasn't any better than anyone else. And at 5 on 5 he was nearly invisible as far as anything impactful goes. Then for the past year and a half with us, he stopped providing once in a while goals, so became AHL fodder, which we got a 3rd for in a good draft. You seem to have a penchant for pretending that the grass is greener with whichever player we get rid of, despite a largely different reality. Mursak got a chance, did nothing, then went back to Europe, Pulks did next to nothing, went elsewhere and is in the minors, so likely not NHL material, Jurco did nothing for us, got traded and is doing all of nothing with Chicago. Jarnkrok didn't get a chance with us, however he is a 3rd liner, which is fine and all, but wouldn't be the player that makes us better than we are currently or in the future, and Janmark is much the same in Dallas. I think I covered most of the "missed opportunity" guys! All in all, we haven't given up on all star or game changing players, and honestly aren't doing bad with player development considering we have hardly any high picks in recent memory. Most of the players we have drafted have turned into about what you expect players to be, given where we got them. For every Larkin, Mantha sitting at 15-20 overall, there are thousands of Pulkkinen's and Sheahan's that are nothing to take note of.

Newsflash - 3rd liners aren't that special.
Also a Newsflash - I'll take younger cheaper ones over older expensive ones when we we're rebuilding.

 

[Redder Winger]

Helm would have fantastic value at the deadline if he were an expiring contract, or good value if he still had one year left. Same with Abdelkader. But nobody is going to line up for the liability of a long term deal on those guys, even with retention, and I don't see Detroit as willing to retain for that many years, since it effectively becomes a buyout at that point.

Realistically, the most activity to hope for would be Green, Nyquist, and one of the goalies, with a Booth or an XO as a footnote filler. The rest are either here for too long, and/or have too little talent to be traded now, as opposed to during the summer.

As for Holland, either he returns, or he should be canned as soon as the regular season is over, to maximize the time that the new guy has to prep for the draft. But firing him before this year - even if you knew he was done after this season - was never happening with this franchise. And unless they already had an A1 replacement lined up, there was no need anyway.

Wings can easily afford to retain $1M on Howard, Helm and Nielsen, for example.
So you'd be spending $3M plus perhaps another $3M for their replacements (assuming you use cheap kids) and saving $14M. For an $8M savings.
You could turn that $8M into a nice defenseman or nice forward in free agency. Or you could use it for space in a trade.
Howard's retention comes off next year.
At that point you're spending $2M plus $2M in repacement to save about $9.5M. That's a $5.5M savings that can be used at another position (And effectively $6.5M including replacement value.

So, to me, you trade Green, Howard, Helm and Nielsen...
Eating a total of $3M for this year and next year.
THen sign Larkin at $5,1M, Mantha at $3,8 and AA at $2.4...
You've got $19M in cap space - if Kronwall goes on LTIR.

You could make a play for Tavares.
You could save the dough and make a play for Karlsson the next year.
Or sign Tavares and then try to make a play for Karlsson the next year.

But you know what you get when you keep Howard, Nielsen and Helm?
You get excuses.

You get excuses for doing nothing and sucking.

So unless it's your plan for this team to keep finishing 24th and picking 10th overall, you've got to do something to jolt the salary structure.

 

[chances14]

nielsen has the most negative trade value of pretty much anyone on the team besides abdelkader. nobody is taking those contracts on unless you give up a significant piece along with it even if you retain half of their cap hits.

cap hits on these contracts aren't really the main issue. it's the amount of years left on these contracts.

 

[Fil Larkmanthanasiou]

He inherited a great team with the best owner in sports, won the lottery twice with Datsyuk and Zetterberg and had a hockey genius advising him.

 

[Redder Winger]

Helm would have fantastic value at the deadline if he were an expiring contract, or good value if he still had one year left. Same with Abdelkader. But nobody is going to line up for the liability of a long term deal on those guys, even with retention, and I don't see Detroit as willing to retain for that many years, since it effectively becomes a buyout at that point.

Realistically, the most activity to hope for would be Green, Nyquist, and one of the goalies, with a Booth or an XO as a footnote filler. The rest are either here for too long, and/or have too little talent to be traded now, as opposed to during the summer.

As for Holland, either he returns, or he should be canned as soon as the regular season is over, to maximize the time that the new guy has to prep for the draft. But firing him before this year - even if you knew he was done after this season - was never happening with this franchise. And unless they already had an A1 replacement lined up, there was no need anyway.

Darren Helm, $1M retained, has 3 years at $2,85M.
You think that's hard to swallow?
I don't.
And if I had a team that needed a cup winning, 3 or 4C or W who can PK, I wouldn't think 3x2.85 is so awful.

The only hard deal I see, maybe, is Nielsen. Even 4 more years at $4M (after you retain).

 

[TheOtherOne]

Man i can't take you seriously while you keep repeating this goalie age nonsense. Both our goalies suck, neither is going to win us a Cup, we have no reason to care about either of them and age is irrelevant.

[I hear whatever random kid is tending for the Walleye is our future, you can tell because he's 17 years old probably [I actually have no clue about anything about the Walleye]]

 

[Shaman464]

Man i can't take you seriously while you keep repeating this goalie age nonsense. Both our goalies suck, neither is going to win us a Cup, we have no reason to care about either of them and age is irrelevant.

[I hear whatever random kid is tending for the Walleye is our future, you can tell because he's 17 years old probably [I actually have no clue about anything about the Walleye]]

The age gap works better when you take into account Howard's injury history and the general trend that age makes that worse. Right now Detroit will need a 3-5 year stop gap. We know Howard has likely peaked. Mrazek we don't know. He could take that next step, he might not, but he at least is much more likely to eat starts.

 

[jkutswings]

Darren Helm, $1M retained, has 3 years at $2,85M.
You think that's hard to swallow?
I don't.
And if I had a team that needed a cup winning, 3 or 4C or W who can PK, I wouldn't think 3x2.85 is so awful.

The only hard deal I see, maybe, is Nielsen. Even 4 more years at $4M (after you retain).

No. What I mean is that a random Cup contender isn't interested in ANY depth guy long term. If a Tampa Bay or a Nashville wants to add a piece, it's either a really high end player, which is a caliber of talent that never hits the market at the trade deadline, or a rental that's fairly low risk. They want a short term boost, not a long term addition. It's all about the here and now, with as few strings attached as possible.

If I'm all in for this year, I'd sooner add a pro rated $6-8M guy to potentially make a bigger impact over a 3 month stretch, than take on 3-5 years of even a dirt cheap depth guy, that will have a smaller impact per game, over a much longer duration. So while Helm as a rental may or may not interest me, Helm for several years - no matter how cheap - doesn't move the needle.

 

[Redder Winger]

No. What I mean is that a random Cup contender isn't interested in ANY depth guy long term. If a Tampa Bay or a Nashville wants to add a piece, it's either a really high end player, which is a caliber of talent that never hits the market at the trade deadline, or a rental that's fairly low risk. They want a short term boost, not a long term addition. It's all about the here and now, with as few strings attached as possible.

If I'm all in for this year, I'd sooner add a pro rated $6-8M guy to potentially make a bigger impact over a 3 month stretch, than take on 3-5 years of even a dirt cheap depth guy, that will have a smaller impact per game, over a much longer duration. So while Helm as a rental may or may not interest me, Helm for several years - no matter how cheap - doesn't move the needle.

The cap is going up to $80 to $82M.
Toronto was supposedly interested in Glendening even though he has multiple years left.
I think people are making excuses for inaction.

I understand the desire to get a short term guy you can dispose of.
But if the Wings give you Helm at $1M retained for a 4th, you can get a rental for a 2nd, if you've got caproom and a rising cap, why not fill that hole for a few years.

Comparing a 3rd/4th line guy to Helm doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Apples and oranges.

 

[Fil Larkmanthanasiou]

The cap is going up to $80 to $82M.
Toronto was supposedly interested in Glendening even though he has multiple years left.
I think people are making excuses for inaction.

I understand the desire to get a short term guy you can dispose of.
But if the Wings give you Helm at $1M retained for a 4th, you can get a rental for a 2nd, if you've got caproom and a rising cap, why not fill that hole for a few years.

Comparing a 3rd/4th line guy to Helm doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Apples and oranges.

You think Helm is a top 6 guy?

 

[Martinez]

Shout out to holland for getting us all these picks

 

[Pavels Dog]

Can you expand on this? The team isn't set up very good right now, but saying the next GM is going to be worse than Holland doesn't exactly give more hope for the future of this franchise. Holland will retire eventually, and if the next guy is going to be terrible, this franchise may never be good again.

Well I don’t see a GM ready to step in whose got good potential to be better. A change in GM indicates ownership getting antsy, and a new GM might not be offered the time to do things right (which I believe Holland is doing and will be doing) but instead feel a need for quick results. However if it’s an internal promition with Holland staying in an advisory role things could work out.
I just don’t believe in quick fixes. Drafting and development is Holland’s MO, just because it eventually failed while drafting late I don’t think he’ll mess up drafting high and often. Another GM might.

 

[Redder Winger]

Well I don’t see a GM ready to step in whose got good potential to be better. A change in GM indicates ownership getting antsy, and a new GM might not be offered the time to do things right (which I believe Holland is doing and will be doing) but instead feel a need for quick results. However if it’s an internal promition with Holland staying in an advisory role things could work out.
I just don’t believe in quick fixes. Drafting and development is Holland’s MO, just because it eventually failed while drafting late I don’t think he’ll mess up drafting high and often. Another GM might.

Holland's draft record, at least in round 1, is nothing special.
He's had good luck drafting some talent in later rounds. But lately, that's not be the case very often either.

 

[Oddbob]

Newsflash - 3rd liners aren't that special.
Also a Newsflash - I'll take younger cheaper ones over older expensive ones when we we're rebuilding.

Neither is Riley Sheahan!

 

[Pavels Dog]

Holland's draft record, at least in round 1, is nothing special.
He's had good luck drafting some talent in later rounds. But lately, that's not be the case very often either.

Yeah with the worst draft position in the league he eventually failed to strike gold. It happens. Add extra picks and significantly higher draft position and give it time. Right now we’re judging mainly based on 2005-2012 drafting.

 

[Redder Winger]

Neither is Riley Sheahan!

Uh, exactly.
But he doesn't make $5.25M until he's 38 years old.
He doesn't make $4,25M until he's 37 years old
He doesn't make $3,85M until he's 35 years old.'

One of the oldest, worst teams in the NHL thought it was a better idea to trade the cheaper, 26 year old instead of the older more expensive guys
And that's how you get to be and remain one of the oldest and worst teams in the NHL.

 

[Oddbob]

Uh, exactly.
But he doesn't make $5.25M until he's 38 years old.
He doesn't make $4,25M until he's 37 years old
He doesn't make $3,85M until he's 35 years old.'

One of the oldest, worst teams in the NHL thought it was a better idea to trade the cheaper, 26 year old instead of the older more expensive guys
And that's how you get to be and remain one of the oldest and worst teams in the NHL.

We were talking about Riley Sheahan, what do Nielsen, Helm and Abdelkader have to do with this? No one is taking Nielsen or Abdelkader for sure, so why are you constantly bellyaching about it. Does your bellyaching move these contracts? No! Holland was trying to keep competitive, cause guess what his marching order are from the Illitch family. PLAYOFFS! No one is arguing Nielsen is a bad signing, but the discussion was your annoyance that we lost a nobody in Sheahan, so we could get the better player AA, in our lineup, and to boot, we move up in the 3rd round, both of those moves are good for our future, and isn't that what your always on about.? As far as cap space goes, who really cares for us right now, we aren't landing Tavares and the rest of the high end free agents of which there a very few are not likely to come right now, so does it honestly matter if we have 20 million in cap space or 275,000 in cap space? Now if next season our young players truly take the next step and start leading this club and we magically were doing awesome, then you aggressively try and make space for potential free agents.

 

[ShelbyZ]

I mean he got a likely 3rd for a goalie who two months ago wouldn't have fetched a day old loaf of Jimmy Johns bread.... Worthy of an extension IMO.

 

[jkutswings]

The cap is going up to $80 to $82M.
Toronto was supposedly interested in Glendening even though he has multiple years left.
I think people are making excuses for inaction.

I understand the desire to get a short term guy you can dispose of.
But if the Wings give you Helm at $1M retained for a 4th, you can get a rental for a 2nd, if you've got caproom and a rising cap, why not fill that hole for a few years.

Comparing a 3rd/4th line guy to Helm doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Apples and oranges.

And the bolded is where we fundamentally disagree. On anything resembling a Cup contender, Darren Helm is a 4th line center. I don't see him boosting a team much more than a Glendening, and Glen is a lot better financially, both on AAV and term.

Or put another way, in the grand scheme of things, Helm is a different version of Glendening, but with a length of contract that nobody wants to acquire.