Value of: JT Miller to Pens at top top dollar only

[SEALBound]

That was the ask, with the picks non-negotiable.

If we agreed on the picks, do you see any other pieces that work?

No one is going to agree with you on the picks. No one.

Don't blame you don't want to pay the price, but like I said, we're keeping him unless such overpayment is tendered.

Shucks...you keep JT Miller, we keep the 5 players you want us to give you.

 

[SEALBound]

As I said at sq 1 OP, different deals have different values for different reasons. Not all of them are reasonably = value, not all are fair value.

I was totally upfront that I do not want to deal JT for = value, and I am nipping in the bid such discussion to not waste anybody's time.

There is no ? Miller would be a huge add now, and a helpful build piece for Pens. The purpose of this thread is to ascertain how high you will go. If we are ballpark close, we can talk, if not, that's fine as we are rivals.

Okay...so...do us a favor, complete this sentence "Jim Rutherford, GM of the Pittsburgh Penguins, would consider this deal because..."

 

[Drew311]

Sure, the Pens can afford to start picking in the 3rd round the next two years.

 

[stepdad gaary]

guentzel for 2 1sts, 2 seconds, and skjei

EDIT: sorry you also have to take hagelin and reaves

 

[bernmeister]

if marc staal is in the deal than the pens would give you ian cole and a 2nd for staal and miller. staal is junk an his contract sucks

He is overpriced at 5.7 but untethered from the anchor that is Girardi he no longer sucks. It is more than fair to say after recovering from concussions and eye injury he is no longer what he was, the best pure shutdown D in the league. But with the right partner he can handle no longer 20+ 1st pair mins, but 14+ on 3rd pair is clearly fine and doable.

Staal is not a big component here. I do want a taker, because we have excess LD which is backlogging things. But he can stay until then, no prob.

I figured since you're not seeing people banging down the doors to get Letang, and his 7.25m, you might want to shift his RD $ to LD with the swap of Schultz for Staal.

 

[bernmeister]

A 21yo Phil Kessel got 2 1sts and a 2nd from Toronto.

And you want 2 1sts, 2 2nds, and Justin Schultz...for JT Miller and a cap dump Marc Staal.

I am absolutely beyond words.

This goes right up there with the Despres + 2 1sts for a UFA Hemsky at the TDL from the Oilers fans several years ago.

Absolutely awful. I can say with 100% certainty that this is the worst proposal of 2018.

The better picks from Leafs are huge dif from late picks from Pens.
And I have explained the other factors which I will not repeat which you chose to ignore.

 

[wej20]

He is overpriced at 5.7 but untethered from the anchor that is Girardi he no longer sucks. It is more than fair to say after recovering from concussions and eye injury he is no longer what he was, the best pure shutdown D in the league. But with the right partner he can handle no longer 20+ 1st pair mins, but 14+ on 3rd pair is clearly fine and doable.

Staal is not a big component here. I do want a taker, because we have excess LD which is backlogging things. But he can stay until then, no prob.

I figured since you're not seeing people banging down the doors to get Letang, and his 7.25m, you might want to shift his RD $ to LD with the swap of Schultz for Staal.

That's not not just shifting Dollars from RD to LD, that's shifting dollars from a good player that we need to a bad player we don't.

 

[stepdad gaary]

He is overpriced at 5.7 but untethered from the anchor that is Girardi he no longer sucks. It is more than fair to say after recovering from concussions and eye injury he is no longer what he was, the best pure shutdown D in the league. But with the right partner he can handle no longer 20+ 1st pair mins, but 14+ on 3rd pair is clearly fine and doable.

Staal is not a big component here. I do want a taker, because we have excess LD which is backlogging things. But he can stay until then, no prob.

I figured since you're not seeing people banging down the doors to get Letang, and his 7.25m, you might want to shift his RD $ to LD with the swap of Schultz for Staal.

no one is banging down the doors to get letang because the penguins arent trying to trade him. No one is banging down the doors to get Lundqvist. Does that mean he sucks? This whole thread is making my head hurt.

 

[bernmeister]

What supply and demand is there for Miller? Most teams have drafted good prospects that can come in and fill that role. Miller is a solid player, and I'm sure teams would love to have him, but not at the cost of all those assets when they probably have somebody equally as good or close enough. He's not a franchise player. He's not a top player. He's a solid player that can move through-out the line-up and play in every situation, nothing more.

I disagree. He is at min a solid player, and that he can have first line linemates established argument for 1st line value.

And I make no concessions as to the price. 2 LATE picks that you have to develop and not be wrong on value for a guy 15OA who could have gone higher who is a known commodity!
Two late 1sts alone do not cut it here.
If we were saying Miller wanted out, or if no ?, Rangers could not afford him, or some other bonafide x factor, then, sure, the price goes down. But that is not the case, and that it is not the case can not be ignored.

 

[bernmeister]

Sure, the Pens can afford to start picking in the 3rd round the next two years.

Sure if they got Miller upfront now.

 

[bernmeister]

all,

it's been fun, but the real world summons me for a couple of days.
Thanks everyone and I will get back to this when I can over the w/e.

Despite the fact the Schenn deal provides a loose ballpark parallel, I get the consensus that Pitt-mesiters do not want to pay anything near this price, and as I explained, Rangers do not proceed without overpayment here.

Everyone is welcome to add or let the thread die, either way, fine. If there is any constructive add that does not change 2 1sts + 2nds for Miller + something moderate Rangers can live with,
I'd love to hear it, but I expect I'm gonna be happy extending JT when his contract is up.

 

[stepdad gaary]

all,

it's been fun, but the real world summons me for a couple of days.
Thanks everyone and I will get back to this when I can over the w/e.

Despite the fact the Schenn deal provides a loose ballpark parallel, I get the consensus that Pitt-mesiters do not want to pay anything near this price, and as I explained, Rangers do not proceed without overpayment here.

Everyone is welcome to add or let the thread die, either way, fine. If there is any constructive add that does not change 2 1sts + 2nds for Miller + something moderate Rangers can live with,
I'd love to hear it, but I expect I'm gonna be happy extending JT when his contract is up.

i think its been made abundantly clear by penguins fans that this is not a good starting point so trying to make it work is pretty pointless.

 

[jay caufield forhead]

He is overpriced at 5.7 but untethered from the anchor that is Girardi he no longer sucks. It is more than fair to say after recovering from concussions and eye injury he is no longer what he was, the best pure shutdown D in the league. But with the right partner he can handle no longer 20+ 1st pair mins, but 14+ on 3rd pair is clearly fine and doable.

Staal is not a big component here. I do want a taker, because we have excess LD which is backlogging things. But he can stay until then, no prob.

I figured since you're not seeing people banging down the doors to get Letang, and his 7.25m, you might want to shift his RD $ to LD with the swap of Schultz for Staal.

staal was never the best shut down guy in he league a cheap shot cross checking pylon. Girardi seems to be doing pretty good for the lighting. think its more like now that Girardi is untethered from staal.. there are literally 500 better choices then staal for the pens third pairing. none of which cost 5.7 million a year.

just cause the rumors say we want to trade letang doesn't mean they are true. letang will come around he still is good offensively just seams to make dumb mistakes on defense . letang at 7.5 is still 1000 times better than staal at 5.7

i would love miller on the pens your asking price is crazy the actual price for him is probably to high for the pens to

 

[SEALBound]

The better picks from Leafs are huge dif from late picks from Pens.
And I have explained the other factors which I will not repeat which you chose to ignore.

Here's what you do not understand about that though, Toronto did not know where those picks would be when they traded them. The trade wasn't "Hi Boston, we will give you the 2nd OV pick, the 32nd OV pick in 2010 and the 9th OV pick 2011 for Kessel". Toronto had no idea where those picks would be. I guarantee that if you ask Toronto management, they did NOT expect to be at that level and had they known that, they would NOT have done that deal.

You are using hindsight to misinterpret the value of that trade.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Pens fans, I am so, so sorry.

 

[Starat327]

"Hey, I'm proposing a trade to your team."

"Well, thats too much, no thanks."

"Dont want to pay? thats fine. We arent selling him cheap."

"...ok."


The OP is terrible for Pens. JT Miller is a lesser player than Schenn(who, coincidentally can also play all 3 forward positions) and while his contract status of RFA may help, Schenn was locked in to a reasonable rate for a 50 point winger. Now, he's a close to or at (havent checked recent stats) PPG center at an extremely low rate. That negates any 'leverage' JT miller's contract status has in trade value.

There's no realistic add here. The realistic thing is that JT Miller is worth at most what Schenn got. You don't seem comfortable making that trade, so there isnt much else to discuss.

 

[DesertPenguin]

You could make the argument that JT Miller is a Matt Duchene equivalent but two years younger with more years of RFA control. He's yet to have a 70 point season like Duchene has, but he could be trending that way. So just for the sake of argument, let's look at what Duchene returned:

Defenseman prospect Samuel Girard, Nashville’s 2016 second-round pick
Forward prospect Vladislav Kamenev, Nashville’s 2014 second-round pick
Forward prospect Shane Bowers, Ottawa’s 2017 first-round pick
Goaltender Andrew Hammond
2018 first-round pick from Ottawa*
2018 second-round pick from Nashville
2019 third-round pick from Ottawa

1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3 prospects and a cap dump goalie

2 1sts, 2 2nds, a 50 pt RHS D man and you are sending the cap dump, not the other way around, is too much.

I'm not sure if I'm GMJR I would do this, but based on the above a market rate deal would be more like:

Pen's 2018 1st
Pens 2018 2nd
Pens 2019 3rd
Tristan Jarry
Andrey Pedan
Teddy Bleuger
Carl Hagelin

The above seems like way too much though, which is probably why the Pens, despite being very interested in Duchene, did not ultimately land him.

 

[hockeykicker]

So the trade is:


1st 2018
1st 2019
2nd 2018
2nd 2019
Justin schultz

for


J.T Miller
Marc Staal
Moderate add


No chance I'd do that if I was the Pens

omg thats a disgusting trade

 

[bernmeister]

Here's what you do not understand about that though, Toronto did not know where those picks would be when they traded them. The trade wasn't "Hi Boston, we will give you the 2nd OV pick, the 32nd OV pick in 2010 and the 9th OV pick 2011 for Kessel". Toronto had no idea where those picks would be. I guarantee that if you ask Toronto management, they did NOT expect to be at that level and had they known that, they would NOT have done that deal.

You are using hindsight to misinterpret the value of that trade.

not really.
while anything COULD happen and injuries or other COULD have Pens picking way less, as a practical statistical matter they are way better this year with Miller now and next while those picks are made and develop.

Given that, I have a right to value those picks as late 1sts.

Toronto then was not what Pens are now, so there is no such misinterpretation.

 

[bernmeister]

You could make the argument that JT Miller is a Matt Duchene equivalent but two years younger with more years of RFA control. He's yet to have a 70 point season like Duchene has, but he could be trending that way. So just for the sake of argument, let's look at what Duchene returned:

Defenseman prospect Samuel Girard, Nashville’s 2016 second-round pick
Forward prospect Vladislav Kamenev, Nashville’s 2014 second-round pick
Forward prospect Shane Bowers, Ottawa’s 2017 first-round pick
Goaltender Andrew Hammond
2018 first-round pick from Ottawa*
2018 second-round pick from Nashville
2019 third-round pick from Ottawa

1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3 prospects and a cap dump goalie

2 1sts, 2 2nds, a 50 pt RHS D man and you are sending the cap dump, not the other way around, is too much.

I'm not sure if I'm GMJR I would do this, but based on the above a market rate deal would be more like:

Pen's 2018 1st
Pens 2018 2nd
Pens 2019 3rd
Tristan Jarry
Andrey Pedan
Teddy Bleuger
Carl Hagelin

The above seems like way too much though, which is probably why the Pens, despite being very interested in Duchene, did not ultimately land him.

Thanks for the good faith effort to objectively consider value.
Whether or not and to what extent Duchene is overrated, at this point Miller doesn't fetch what he does.

But the point remains, he commands more than 2 late 1sts.
til later...

 

[SEALBound]

Thanks for the good faith effort to objectively consider value.
Whether or not and to what extent Duchene is overrated, at this point Miller doesn't fetch what he does.

But the point remains, he commands more than 2 late 1sts.
til later...

How do you know they will be "two late firsts"?

 

[WhoTagz]

If this trade even remotely happens which I doubt the fair value would be something around Maata for Miller both good young players , I know the pens wouldnt really trade maata but thats what I think the value is around

 

[TGWL]

staal was never the best shut down guy in he league a cheap shot cross checking pylon. Girardi seems to be doing pretty good for the lighting. think its more like now that Girardi is untethered from staal.. there are literally 500 better choices then staal for the pens third pairing. none of which cost 5.7 million a year.

just cause the rumors say we want to trade letang doesn't mean they are true. letang will come around he still is good offensively just seams to make dumb mistakes on defense . letang at 7.5 is still 1000 times better than staal at 5.7

i would love miller on the pens your asking price is crazy the actual price for him is probably to high for the pens to

Staal was never #1, no. I'm not sure where else you were going with that unless you're referring to the cross check on Crosby? If so, I don't think that defines Staal's career. It's hard to take "cheap shot" serious when Crosby is on the other side.

And Bern, Miller doesn't have the Duchene trade value. Duchene was an established #1 Center for quite some time, very productive early on, and has a lot of offensive skill. They're completely different players.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If this trade even remotely happens which I doubt the fair value would be something around Maata for Miller both good young players , I know the pens wouldnt really trade maata but thats what I think the value is around

That's probably reasonable to suggest, and I wouldn't be surprised when both teams say "thanks but no thanks" to that deal. I don't think either team would want to see their player on another team in the division, since both Maatta and Miller are really good.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

two firsts, two seconds, Schultz AND taking Staal's contract for JT Miller?

that is legit the worst proposal I've seen on here in awhile. Congrats!