Value of: JT Miller to Pens at top top dollar only

[bernmeister]

Continue to consider JT part of our young care. Strongly leaning to create cap space and retain long term deal. However, open mind, would consider dealing IF AND ONLY IF an offer that could not be refused were presented. Pens are a fit, even tho teams don't do biz usually.

Miller was 15OA, plays as if could have been drafted higher.
Not elite speed, power, shot etc but solid in all areas, versatile F plays either W or C
Fits Pens needs like a glove, and is home grown to boot.


The fact that there is a strong draft this year and next.
Late 1sts potential for a guy like Miller is not enough.

Pens 2018 and 2019 1sts and 2nds.
Then I want something on top of that

maybe Schultz, 3 years 5.5 for Staal, 4 years 5.7 and Rangers do a moderate add.
but add does not have to be that.

Again, not looking to move Miller
deals are made all the time for different reasons, and the value is not always balanced because of those reasons

I am upfront: on this occasion, do not want fair value here, coke for pepsi

Rangers have to make a killing in order to consider deal.

Do Pens overpay and if so, what is the final deal on top of draft picks
[NY does not want vets]?

Click to read more...

 

[Empoleon8771]

So you're basically looking to give the Penguins JT Miller, but you're expecting them to crazily overpay for him just because? That sounds logical, sounds like a great negotiating tactic. "Here's my offer, but you're going to hurt if you want to get him!".

That doesn't even mention how laughably bad your offer is. Schultz for Miller is probably pretty close to fair value based on past trades, even though I think neither side would do it (Schultz is too important to the Penguins and the Rangers already have essentially the same player in Shattenkirk).

 

[BleedBlue14]

This is ugly. Really ugly. You aren't going to get 2 1sts, 2 2nds, Schultz and then to take that Staal contract for Miller. He's not a super star.

 

[wej20]

So the trade is:


1st 2018
1st 2019
2nd 2018
2nd 2019
Justin schultz

for


J.T Miller
Marc Staal
Moderate add


No chance I'd do that if I was the Pens

 

[Oberyn]

Brayden Schenn got two late firsts and a cap dump in Lehtera, and you're asking for two 1sts, two 2nds, and more for Miller? Interesting.

 

[wej20]

Brayden Schenn got two late firsts and a cap dump in Lehtera, and you're asking for two 1sts, two 2nds, and more for Miller? Interesting.

More realistic deal would be J.T Miller + 2nd for Pens 1st 2018 (Lottery protected), Pens 1st 2019 + Hagelin. I still wouldn't do it but if we used the Schenn deal as a basis.

 

[Shaffer]

Based on your proposal, Carl Hagelin could get a first.

and maybe JT Miller for Ian Cole.

 

[go4hockey]

You want 2- 1st and a 2nd plus..... for Miller. Your dreaming he doesn’t hold that type of value. If that was the ask he will be a Ranger for life.

 

[bernmeister]

So you're basically looking to give the Penguins JT Miller, but you're expecting them to crazily overpay for him just because? That sounds logical, sounds like a great negotiating tactic. "Here's my offer, but you're going to hurt if you want to get him!".

That doesn't even mention how laughably bad your offer is. Schultz for Miller is probably pretty close to fair value based on past trades, even though I think neither side would do it (Schultz is too important to the Penguins and the Rangers already have essentially the same player in Shattenkirk).

I asked for opinions and I thank you for yours.

I disagree that Schutlz for Miller is close to fair.

Let's bear in mind that Pens are trying to extend cup window. My deal, to a division rival, does that short term by immediately surrendering a quality player with upside for futures. Of course, the futures have theoretical long term value, or there would be no offer. But in terms of getting something of established value now without giving up similar assets useful now, that is a big factor to consider.

You chose not to acknowledge that real factor.
Fine.

A guy playing better than a mid 1st selection requires more than 2 mid-late 20s; that is just a downpayment.

If you don't want to pay that price, that's understandable.
But Rangers will not consider move unless such is provided.

Peace out.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Let's look at the long history of the Penguins overpaying players because of where they were born:







Yeah, Miller ain't gonna be the first one. I'd love him on the Pens, but not at anything near that price. We'll cope without him.

 

[bernmeister]

This is ugly. Really ugly. You aren't going to get 2 1sts, 2 2nds, Schultz and then to take that Staal contract for Miller. He's not a super star.

If all those picks are not in, no deal.
Staal 5.7 [an extra yr] and Schultz 5.5 are very close $. Schultz is worth more, so I'd do a throw in. But we are not close on this.

I think the rest of the thread should address if Pens fans want to pony up just the picks for Miller as a start. If they are not willing to do that, there is no sense in seeing about the add.

 

[TGWL]

Miller is not worth 2 first and 2 2nds, let alone adding on top of that with players or prospects, while they take back Staal.

 

[bernmeister]

So the trade is:


1st 2018
1st 2019
2nd 2018
2nd 2019
Justin schultz

for


J.T Miller
Marc Staal
Moderate add

No chance I'd do that if I was the Pens

That was the ask, with the picks non-negotiable.

If we agreed on the picks, do you see any other pieces that work?

 

[TGWL]

Based on your proposal, Carl Hagelin could get a first.

and maybe JT Miller for Ian Cole.

The trade Bern posted was terrible, but this is also pretty bad. In no way does Ian Cole get you JT Miller. In no way does 2 Ian Coles get you JT Miller.

 

[wej20]

If all those picks are not in, no deal.
Staal 5.7 [an extra yr] and Schultz 5.5 are very close $. Schultz is worth more, so I'd do a throw in. But we are not close on this.

I think the rest of the thread should address if Pens fans want to pony up just the picks for Miller as a start. If they are not willing to do that, there is no sense in seeing about the add.

Schultz has significantly more trade value and more value to the Pens so including him and Staal in the trade makes it a complete non-starter. I like Miller but I wouldn't trade 2 1sts and 2 2nds for him, our prospect cupboard is bare, so trading all that for one player is bad asset management.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If you don't want to pay that price, that's understandable.
But Rangers will not consider move unless such is provided.

Peace out.

You were the one making this thread. That's not how this works, you don't just propose trading players to other teams and then say "you won't get him unless you severely overpay". No Penguins fan was asking for him. That's just not how this works

 

[jay caufield forhead]

if marc staal is in the deal than the pens would give you ian cole and a 2nd for staal and miller. staal is junk an his contract sucks

 

[bernmeister]

Brayden Schenn got two late firsts and a cap dump in Lehtera, and you're asking for two 1sts, two 2nds, and more for Miller? Interesting.

Yes, thank you.
Now I'm not saying Schenn isn't better.
I'm saying Miller is just at mid 20s, beginning of his prime, provides a pivot solution who still has some RFA contract level in him. (Instead of paying for UFA like triple for Seguin if he hits the market, or the roof for Tavares.)

Just to be clear, I did say the more was negotiable, and NYR would add depending on what that would be.

Supply and demand is an issue.
How many talented guys who have shown they can cut the mustard are even being made available? And in those few instances, what is the cost?

More realistic deal would be J.T Miller + 2nd for Pens 1st 2018 (Lottery protected), Pens 1st 2019 + Hagelin. I still wouldn't do it but if we used the Schenn deal as a basis.

I would do a variation on that.
The 2 1sts, no lottery protection.
The 2 2nds
Hagelin (happy to have him back but he is overpriced at what he does and his whole game is speed; if he loses his wheels later in that contract, that's a problem --- again, looking larger picture as to value)

for
Miller
Ranger 3rds in 2018 and 2019
an expiring 3rd pair D Holden

something like that

 

[TGWL]

if marc staal is in the deal than the pens would give you ian cole and a 2nd for staal and miller. staal is junk an his contract sucks

He's been pretty decent this season. The way he's been playing, more overpaid by 1 - 1.5 million, vs his entire contract. There's no way you get Miller and Staal for Ian Cole and a 2nd. I get that the Miller isn't worth half of what was posted, but a UFA and a 2nd for Miller and Staal is laughable.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Staal is outright a non-starter for any negotiation with the Pens. He'd be a horrific fit in Sullivan's system on top of whatever cost concerns exist.

Plus I'm pretty sure Sid would stab him in his sleep.

 

[wej20]

I would do a variation on that.
The 2 1sts, no lottery protection.
The 2 2nds
Hagelin (happy to have him back but he is overpriced at what he does and his whole game is speed; if he loses his wheels later in that contract, that's a problem --- again, looking larger picture as to value)

for
Miller
Ranger 3rds in 2018 and 2019
an expiring 3rd pair D Holden

something like that

Still too much and Pens have no need for Holden.

 

[TGWL]

Yes, thank you.
Now I'm not saying Schenn isn't better.
I'm saying Miller is just at mid 20s, beginning of his prime, provides a pivot solution who still has some RFA contract level in him. (Instead of paying for UFA like triple for Seguin if he hits the market, or the roof for Tavares.)

Just to be clear, I did say the more was negotiable, and NYR would add depending on what that would be.

Supply and demand is an issue.
How many talented guys who have shown they can cut the mustard are even being made available? And in those few instances, what is the cost?




I would do a variation on that.
The 2 1sts, no lottery protection.
The 2 2nds
Hagelin (happy to have him back but he is overpriced at what he does and his whole game is speed; if he loses his wheels later in that contract, that's a problem --- again, looking larger picture as to value)

for
Miller
Ranger 3rds in 2018 and 2019
an expiring 3rd pair D Holden

something like that

What supply and demand is there for Miller? Most teams have drafted good prospects that can come in and fill that role. Miller is a solid player, and I'm sure teams would love to have him, but not at the cost of all those assets when they probably have somebody equally as good or close enough. He's not a franchise player. He's not a top player. He's a solid player that can move through-out the line-up and play in every situation, nothing more.

 

[bernmeister]

Let's look at the long history of the Penguins overpaying players because of where they were born:







Yeah, Miller ain't gonna be the first one. I'd love him on the Pens, but not at anything near that price. We'll cope without him.

Don't blame you don't want to pay the price, but like I said, we're keeping him unless such overpayment is tendered.

 

[SEALBound]

A 21yo Phil Kessel got 2 1sts and a 2nd from Toronto.

And you want 2 1sts, 2 2nds, and Justin Schultz...for JT Miller and a cap dump Marc Staal.

I am absolutely beyond words.

This goes right up there with the Despres + 2 1sts for a UFA Hemsky at the TDL from the Oilers fans several years ago.

Absolutely awful. I can say with 100% certainty that this is the worst proposal of 2018.

 

[bernmeister]

You were the one making this thread. That's not how this works, you don't just propose trading players to other teams and then say "you won't get him unless you severely overpay". No Penguins fan was asking for him. That's just not how this works

As I said at sq 1 OP, different deals have different values for different reasons. Not all of them are reasonably = value, not all are fair value.

I was totally upfront that I do not want to deal JT for = value, and I am nipping in the bid such discussion to not waste anybody's time.

There is no ? Miller would be a huge add now, and a helpful build piece for Pens. The purpose of this thread is to ascertain how high you will go. If we are ballpark close, we can talk, if not, that's fine as we are rivals.