Value of: Jordan Eberle

[ManofSteel55]

Of course, but the disparity in his production against good teams and bad teams in recent seasons isn't anything close to normal.

I have seen it mentioned a few times that Eberle is 19th in RW scoring in the past 2 seasons. If we look at the 11 players between 20-30 then 10 of them have more points against playoff opposition in the last 2 seasons than Eberle, the only one that doesn't has a better point per game production (Vrbata).

My point remains. If a playoff team is going to take on $6m for a winger then they need him to score when it matters. Just watching him makes you question how effective he would be, then 136 games over 3 seasons isn't a small sample size and 26 goals in that span isn't good enough.

I would wager that all (or nearly all) of those guys were on better teams than what Eberle was two years ago as well. It is much harder to score against good teams when you are playing on a team that sucks, and 2 years ago, we sucked.

I don't think your numbers mean that much when you examine why it might be that way. It isn't that Eberle only scores against bad teams. It's that 2 years ago he played on an awful team who didn't score much against good teams. This is something that you can see in dozens of players who have been on bad teams, not just Eberle. I'm pretty sure Kessel had the same criticism in Toronto and he is one of the biggest reasons the Pens won the cup last year.

I find it funny that all of these things come out trying to discredit Eberle. It's reaching pretty hard to try to discount a guy who is a 60 point, 25 goal player.

A year ago the criticism was that he was a defensive liability. Now that he has improved his defensive play, it's that he should be scoring more points. Well, he would be, but he worked on changing his game a lot throughout the season so he would be more effective when not scoring. That gets ignored now though for his playoff run and people trying to use stats without properly understanding what that particular stat actually says about the player. I guess that's so you can run his value down.

 

[_Del_]

Edmonton should just keep him. $6M is a steal, and he plays good defense. He's a lock to rebound.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Edmonton should just keep him. $6M is a steal, and he plays good defense. He's a lock to rebound.

I honestly think we do keep him if NHL GM's opinions of him are even remotely similar of what HF wannabe GM's opinions are.

 

[TFHockey]

Of course, but the disparity in his production against good teams and bad teams in recent seasons isn't anything close to normal.

I have seen it mentioned a few times that Eberle is 19th in RW scoring in the past 2 seasons. If we look at the 11 players between 20-30 then 10 of them have more points against playoff opposition in the last 2 seasons than Eberle, the only one that doesn't has a better point per game production (Vrbata).

My point remains. If a playoff team is going to take on $6m for a winger then they need him to score when it matters. Just watching him makes you question how effective he would be, then 136 games over 3 seasons isn't a small sample size and 26 goals in that span isn't good enough.

Questioning his playoff performance is fair I think. It is certainly something a team who wants to challenge for the cup has to take into consideration. Eberle did himself no favors with his play this spring.

 

[TFHockey]

I honestly think we do keep him if NHL GM's opinions of him are even remotely similar of what HF wannabe GM's opinions are.

I think it's quite likely that he rebounds from a disappointing 51 point season. Would Oiler fans be cool if he got back to 63 points next season? I think that's very possible.

 

[_Del_]

I honestly think we do keep him if NHL GM's opinions of him are even remotely similar of what HF wannabe GM's opinions are.

It would make for an interesting offseason next year with the extensions coming due.

 

[TFHockey]

I honestly think we do keep him if NHL GM's opinions of him are even remotely similar of what HF wannabe GM's opinions are.

It would make for an interesting offseason next year with the extensions coming due.

If you are referring to Draisaitl (this year) or McDavid (next) I hate to disappoint you but both will get done this summer. There will be no offer sheets for McDavid. Assuming that is what you're implying.

 

[simon IC]

Personally, I think the Blues should stay clear of Eberle. We have enough perimeter players. We need more net front presence and that is not what Eberle brings.

 

[ManofSteel55]

It would make for an interesting offseason next year with the extensions coming due.

Not really. Eberle with one year left will be easy to trade. It's getting value that might be difficult.

 

[_Del_]

If you are referring to Draisaitl (this year) or McDavid (next) I hate to disappoint you but both will get done this summer. There will be no offer sheets for McDavid. Assuming that is what you're implying.

I wasn't talking about offersheets. Just what the cap situation looks like when they need extensions and Eberle is still on the roster at $6M.

 

[cobra427]

Not really. Eberle with one year left will be easy to trade. It's getting value that might be difficult.

Not if his numbers go down some more. Nobody would sign him right now as a UFA for 2 years at 6 million and I highly doubt anyone would take on 6 mill for 1 year next summer. If his number go up to say 60 points+ maybe but no way if his numbers go down again.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Not if his numbers go down some more. Nobody would sign him right now as a UFA for 2 years at 6 million and I highly doubt anyone would take on 6 mill for 1 year next summer. If his number go up to say 60 points+ maybe but no way if his numbers go down again.

It's more likely that he bounces back than falls even further. Offensively this was by far his worst season. He did show a lot of growth away from the puck this year as well, which was the reason so many claimed he had no value last year. Lots of teams can take a big cap hit for a single year as well, we see it all the time.

 

[cobra427]

It's more likely that he bounces back than falls even further. Offensively this was by far his worst season. He did show a lot of growth away from the puck this year as well, which was the reason so many claimed he had no value last year. Lots of teams can take a big cap hit for a single year as well, we see it all the time.

Do you have an example of an overpaid winger/1 year cap hit?

 

[victor]

It's more likely that he bounces back than falls even further. Offensively this was by far his worst season. He did show a lot of growth away from the puck this year as well, which was the reason so many claimed he had no value last year. Lots of teams can take a big cap hit for a single year as well, we see it all the time.

Wouldn't be shocked if Edmonton keeps him, and if his shooting percentage regresses to his mean, likely a good thing for Edmonton.

Hard to find goal scoring right wingers.

 

[ConnorMcNugesaitl]

Not if his numbers go down some more. Nobody would sign him right now as a UFA for 2 years at 6 million and I highly doubt anyone would take on 6 mill for 1 year next summer. If his number go up to say 60 points+ maybe but no way if his numbers go down again.

How many guys do you think score as well as Eberle did in his down season?

The list isn't long.

The idea that he couldn't get 2 years at 6 million at his age is laughable. Guys scoring at a similar rate are going for 6 million and 7 years.

 

[McVirginOil]

"Eberle's not a net front presence he's a perimeter player I swear the Edmonton Sun told me."

 

[A91]

Not if his numbers go down some more. Nobody would sign him right now as a UFA for 2 years at 6 million and I highly doubt anyone would take on 6 mill for 1 year next summer. If his number go up to say 60 points+ maybe but no way if his numbers go down again.

Someone knows nothing about free agency.

 

[Fourier]

2016/17:
-vs- Playoff teams: 55 Games, 7-19-26 & -12
-vs- Non-playoff teams: 40 Games, 13-14-27 & +9

Over the past 2 seasons his numbers are...

-vs- Playoff teams: 91 Games, 17-26-43 & -25
-vs- Non-playoff teams: 73 Games, 28-29-57 & +10

You want to go back another year, to include his bigger season?

-vs- Playoff teams: 136 Games, 26-44-70 & -39
-vs- Non-playoff teams: 109 Games, 43-50-93 & +8

You want to include teams that finished within 5 points of the playoffs over the past 3 years?

-vs- Good teams: 151 Games, 28-50-78 & -43
-vs- Crap teams: 94 Games, 41-44-85 & +12

Yeah, he had a better record against decent teams before that, but it was also under circumstances he is unlikely to get on a quality team. When the playoffs roll around then teams plan for the opposition more than in the regular season; someone like Eberle is always going to suffer because he doesn't have one outstanding things that is going to separate him. Realistically the expectation should be for him to be around 0.5PPG in the playoffs, and $6m is far too much for that when he is near useless when he isn't scoring.

Even for a team like the Blues, who need playoff scoring, he is far too much of a gamble.

Actually I don`t disagree that Eberle would be a risk. At $6M and following a down year he is a risk. Nor do I completely disagree with your assessment of how many points you might expect from him in the playoffs though I could say it might be on average .6-.65 and we would both have evidence to support our position. But even at those levels he would still be a productive player. The only Blues players over the last 6 or so years that have averaged more than .6 points in the playoffs are Fabbri and Tarasenko.

In all honesty I don`t think St. Louis is the right place for him. Nor do I see the two teams as being great trading partners.

 

[Flair Hay]

Close to but not quite negative value.

 

[Roof Daddy]

If Vegas selects Dumba from Minny, maybe Ebs + 22nd OA + Caleb Jones for Dumba?

 

[ManofSteel55]

Do you have an example of an overpaid winger/1 year cap hit?

I have examples of overpaid guys getting traded with one year left on their deal or during their final season. It happens every year.

 

[ManofSteel55]

If Vegas selects Dumba from Minny, maybe Ebs + 22nd OA + Caleb Jones for Dumba?

If they pick Dumba they probably won't want to trade him. We are probably more likely to get a guy like Alex Petrovic than Matt Dumba. Petrovic and one of the many 3C's Vegas will get would be ideal.

 

[TFHockey]

I wasn't talking about offersheets. Just what the cap situation looks like when they need extensions and Eberle is still on the roster at $6M.

Oh okay, my bad. The Oilers have the room to sign everyone they need to. A fair amount of dead cap dollars are coming off the books this year and next. Edmonton has around 19 million in cap space next year. That's enough to sign Draisaitl and McDavid and keep everyone around.

The year after Nurse requires and extension along with a few other players. I imagine one of the $6 million players gets dealt around then.

 

[SlapshotTheMovie]

Rangers off Marc Staal, Dan Girardi and the rights to Tanner Glass.

 

[Roof Daddy]

If they pick Dumba they probably won't want to trade him. We are probably more likely to get a guy like Alex Petrovic than Matt Dumba. Petrovic and one of the many 3C's Vegas will get would be ideal.

I agree, it is unlikely they would trade him vs build around him, hence the overpay (or at least I think it's a bit of an overpay depending on the perceived value of Ebs/Jones). IF they land a few other RHD (let's say Vatanen and Pulock), it's not out of the question they'd consider it.

Vatanen could be exposed now due to the uncertainty of timeline for his injury rehab. Not sure what other RHD they may grab.