Value of: Jordan Eberle

[Roof Daddy]

I am not a fan of Eakin, unlike some other Oiler fans, for me he subtracts value from the trade as I think we could spend his cap-hit more wisely elsewhere. I'm more in favor of taking on Niemi as a buy-out as his cap hit would be spread across 2 years just like Eberle's deal which is 2 years. I wouldn't do Ritchie + Niemi for Eberle, but I would do Faksa + Niemi for Eberle; if Faksa is a non-starter then I'd need more value on top of the Ritchie frame work, but something more tangible than a mid-pick which would likely mean a larger deal with both sides adding more.

I would also lobby for a Faksa based deal. Maybe an additional sweetener where we flip 22nd OA to them for 29th OA? Faksa would be a perfect 3C, opens up options regarding Nuge (trade, move to wing, remain 2C if McD and Drai stay together). So the deal would be Ebs + 22nd OA for Faksa + Niemi/Lehtonen + 29th OA.

Does it work for Dallas? They'd still have Eakin for 3C duties behind Seguin and Spezza. I think Eberle could fit very well with Benn and Seguin. Could see a return to 30+ goals and 60+ points if he sticks with them all year. Benn's beastly play could help mask Eberle's softness.

 

[_Del_]

Agreed. There's no way in hell that Nill takes this unless he sees this draft as being as weak as the Yakupov draft year was.

Even if he did think that, he just has to find one team that doesn't to find a better deal than that. Do people really think Eberle, even with retention, goes for that much?

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Even if he did think that, he just has to find one team that doesn't to find a better deal than that. Do people really think Eberle, even with retention, goes for that much?

I don't, but if you expect a Yakupov or Murray at 3 then you pull that deal off.

 

[Crocoduck]

Faksa is a non starter. Not negotiable.

 

[_Del_]

I don't, but if you expect a Yakupov or Murray at 3 then you pull that deal off.

If I expect that, then I trade down or find another dance partner who doesn't value it that way. No chance I'd give up Nichushkin and 3OV for Eberle. There's a better offer out there.

 

[Roof Daddy]

Faksa is a non starter. Not negotiable.

Understandable. I could definitely see him emerging as a 50 point, do everything 2C, maybe as early as next year.

That being the case, I think the Oil would look elsewhere if the best offer is Ritchie/Eakin + goalie cap dump.

 

[ImmuneEH]

I think the move may be to protect Eberle in the expansion draft and then trade him + Fayne (50% retained) to Vegas for a 3C + depth RD. Then proceed to seek out a veteran ufa RW as a stop-gap.

 

[WhatWhat]

I am not a fan of Eakin, unlike some other Oiler fans, for me he subtracts value from the trade as I think we could spend his cap-hit more wisely elsewhere. I'm more in favor of taking on Niemi as a buy-out as his cap hit would be spread across 2 years just like Eberle's deal which is 2 years. I wouldn't do Ritchie + Niemi for Eberle, but I would do Faksa + Niemi for Eberle; if Faksa is a non-starter then I'd need more value on top of the Ritchie frame work, but something more tangible than a mid-pick which would likely mean a larger deal with both sides adding more.

Faksa wont get moved. He is our best defensive forward by a decent margin.

 

[WhatWhat]

Nuke couldn't play with Seguin, why would he work with McDavid? I know everyone thinks he is gods gift but I am not as high on him.

Until McDavid and Draisaitl are re-signed I wouldn't retain on Eberle regardless of the value.

Nuke played well with Benn and Seguin. He just wasnt given a chance once back from surgery. He was inexplicably given the shortest leash I have seen in a while

I don't, but if you expect a Yakupov or Murray at 3 then you pull that deal off.

If you expect a Yak at 3 then you fire your entire scouting staff. You dont trade that pick because it could bust...

I would also lobby for a Faksa based deal. Maybe an additional sweetener where we flip 22nd OA to them for 29th OA? Faksa would be a perfect 3C, opens up options regarding Nuge (trade, move to wing, remain 2C if McD and Drai stay together). So the deal would be Ebs + 22nd OA for Faksa + Niemi/Lehtonen + 29th OA.

Does it work for Dallas? They'd still have Eakin for 3C duties behind Seguin and Spezza. I think Eberle could fit very well with Benn and Seguin. Could see a return to 30+ goals and 60+ points if he sticks with them all year. Benn's beastly play could help mask Eberle's softness.

Faksa is an absolute non starter in a deal around Eberle

 

[nzoilerfan]

If anything I'm hoping that Eberle gets moved in exchange for help on D.

Just set up a Eberle for Hamonic type trade.

 

[HolyJumpin]

Blues should look into giving up Jordan Schmaltz and a pick for Eberle.

He'd look fantastic on a second line behind Tarasenko.

 

[belair]

Blues should look into giving up Jordan Schmaltz and a pick for Eberle.

He'd look fantastic on a second line behind Tarasenko.

I'd do Lehtera and Schmaltz for Eberle. Keep the pick.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I'd do Lehtera and Schmaltz for Eberle. Keep the pick.

Schmaltz+ sure. I wouldn't be happy with Lehtera though. I don't like his game or cap hit. Don't think he would fit well. I'd rather take your Strome proposal, ha ha ha.

 

[belair]

Schmaltz+ sure. I wouldn't be happy with Lehtera though. I don't like his game or cap hit. Don't think he would fit well. I'd rather take your Strome proposal, ha ha ha.

The cap hit gets you Schmaltz.

The reason I add these players is because they add value to the team being rid of them. It adds value to what we're offering. The Blues would not do Schmaltz for Eberle straight up. They couldn't afford it.

Lehtera on the other hand still fills a role, regardless of his cap hit.

 

[ManofSteel55]

The cap hit gets you Schmaltz.

The reason I add these players is because they add value to the team being rid of them. It adds value to what we're offering. The Blues would not do Schmaltz for Eberle straight up. They couldn't afford it.

Lehtera on the other hand still fills a role, regardless of his cap hit.

I understand the logic behind it. I just question if keeping Eberle is a better option this summer than taking on a player we don't need.

 

[belair]

I understand the logic behind it. I just question if keeping Eberle is a better option this summer than taking on a player we don't need.

Not if waiting that one year costs you your leverage.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Blues should look into giving up Jordan Schmaltz and a pick for Eberle.

He'd look fantastic on a second line behind Tarasenko.

I like Schmaltz but think the Oilers would want a roster piece back for Eberle, either a 3C or a defenseman that is better/more experienced then Benning and could handle 2nd pairing.

What are the chances of prying Sobotka out of STL?

 

[Alklha]

Blues should look into giving up Jordan Schmaltz and a pick for Eberle.

He'd look fantastic on a second line behind Tarasenko.

He has seen his role reduced in Edmonton over the past couple of seasons, and we've seen the decline in his production. When he isn't scoring, he isn't useful.

The playoffs were only 13 games, but it goes beyond that; he hasn't produced against quality opposition in the regular season in the past few years either. A team with limited cap flexibility can't afford to be taking a $6m gamble on a player that carries so much risk.

What are the chances of prying Sobotka out of STL?

A significant overpayment.

 

[Fourier]

He has seen his role reduced in Edmonton over the past couple of seasons, and we've seen the decline in his production. When he isn't scoring, he isn't useful.

The playoffs were only 13 games, but it goes beyond that; he hasn't produced against quality opposition in the regular season in the past few years either. A team with limited cap flexibility can't afford to be taking a $6m gamble on a player that carries so much risk.

In 2015-2016 he scored 10 goal in 36 games vs playoff teams. That is a 23 goal pace.

Here are his career numbers (excluding his rookie year) vs the teams in the West that have given the Oilers the most trouble:

Anaheim:

24 gp 6 g 9a 15pt (82 game pace = 20.5 g 30.75 a 51.75 pts)

San Jose:

26 gp 10 g 12a 22pt (82 game pace = 31.54g 37.85a 69.38pts)

LA:

23 gp 3 g 5a 8pt (82 game pace = 10.7 g 17.83a 28.52pts)

Nashville:

18 gp 10 g 7a 17pt (82 game pace = 45.56 g 31.89 a 77.44 pts)

Chicago:

19 gp 6 g 14a 20pt (82 game pace = 25.89 g 60.42a 86.32pts)

Minnesota:

21 gp 6 g 13a 19pt (82 game pace = 23.43g 50.76 a 74.19 pts)

St. Louis:

17 gp 4 g 6a 10pt (82 game pace = 19.29g 28.94a 48.24pts)

The idea that he only produces vs weak teams is a myth.

 

[Alklha]

The idea that he only produces vs weak teams is a myth.

2016/17:
-vs- Playoff teams: 55 Games, 7-19-26 & -12
-vs- Non-playoff teams: 40 Games, 13-14-27 & +9

Over the past 2 seasons his numbers are...

-vs- Playoff teams: 91 Games, 17-26-43 & -25
-vs- Non-playoff teams: 73 Games, 28-29-57 & +10

You want to go back another year, to include his bigger season?

-vs- Playoff teams: 136 Games, 26-44-70 & -39
-vs- Non-playoff teams: 109 Games, 43-50-93 & +8

You want to include teams that finished within 5 points of the playoffs over the past 3 years?

-vs- Good teams: 151 Games, 28-50-78 & -43
-vs- Crap teams: 94 Games, 41-44-85 & +12

Yeah, he had a better record against decent teams before that, but it was also under circumstances he is unlikely to get on a quality team. When the playoffs roll around then teams plan for the opposition more than in the regular season; someone like Eberle is always going to suffer because he doesn't have one outstanding things that is going to separate him. Realistically the expectation should be for him to be around 0.5PPG in the playoffs, and $6m is far too much for that when he is near useless when he isn't scoring.

Even for a team like the Blues, who need playoff scoring, he is far too much of a gamble.

 

[ManofSteel55]

2016/17:
-vs- Playoff teams: 55 Games, 7-19-26 & -12
-vs- Non-playoff teams: 40 Games, 13-14-27 & +9

Over the past 2 seasons his numbers are...

-vs- Playoff teams: 91 Games, 17-26-43 & -25
-vs- Non-playoff teams: 73 Games, 28-29-57 & +10

You want to go back another year, to include his bigger season?

-vs- Playoff teams: 136 Games, 26-44-70 & -39
-vs- Non-playoff teams: 109 Games, 43-50-93 & +8

You want to include teams that finished within 5 points of the playoffs over the past 3 years?

-vs- Good teams: 151 Games, 28-50-78 & -43
-vs- Crap teams: 94 Games, 41-44-85 & +12

Yeah, he had a better record against decent teams before that, but it was also under circumstances he is unlikely to get on a quality team. When the playoffs roll around then teams plan for the opposition more than in the regular season; someone like Eberle is always going to suffer because he doesn't have one outstanding things that is going to separate him. Realistically the expectation should be for him to be around 0.5PPG in the playoffs, and $6m is far too much for that when he is near useless when he isn't scoring.

Even for a team like the Blues, who need playoff scoring, he is far too much of a gamble.

So you have rolled out all these numbers to show that Jordan Eberle scores more against bad teams than against good teams. You don't seem to be giving any recognition at all to the fact that everyone scores more against bad teams than good teams. Bad teams let more goals by in general so it makes perfect sense for players to have a higher goals for against said bad teams.

 

[TFHockey]

Here are some articles on Jordan Eberle that might help clear up a few things:

http://www.fiveforhowling.com/2017/5/9/15587190/nhl-edmonton-oilers-jordan-eberle-trade-arizona-coyotes-own-phil-kessel-story-trade-rumor

Reasons not to trade Jordan Eberle:

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-9-top-reasons-the-edmonton-oilers-should-not-trade-away-jordan-eberle

Eberle to Buffalo:

https://tipofthetower.com/2017/05/18/buffalo-sabres-rumors-jordan-eberle/

 

[TFHockey]

If I expect that, then I trade down or find another dance partner who doesn't value it that way. No chance I'd give up Nichushkin and 3OV for Eberle. There's a better offer out there.

I believe I stated that Jim Nill would also include either Kari Lehtonen or Antti Niemi as cap dumps. Dallas is carrying 15.3 million in goaltenders going into 17-18.

I agree that the Stars would be better served in dealing down this year. By all accounts this is one weak draft.

 

[_Del_]

You don't give up the 3OV to move a goaltender.

 

[Alklha]

So you have rolled out all these numbers to show that Jordan Eberle scores more against bad teams than against good teams. You don't seem to be giving any recognition at all to the fact that everyone scores more against bad teams than good teams. Bad teams let more goals by in general so it makes perfect sense for players to have a higher goals for against said bad teams.

Of course, but the disparity in his production against good teams and bad teams in recent seasons isn't anything close to normal.

I have seen it mentioned a few times that Eberle is 19th in RW scoring in the past 2 seasons. If we look at the 11 players between 20-30 then 10 of them have more points against playoff opposition in the last 2 seasons than Eberle, the only one that doesn't has a better point per game production (Vrbata).

My point remains. If a playoff team is going to take on $6m for a winger then they need him to score when it matters. Just watching him makes you question how effective he would be, then 136 games over 3 seasons isn't a small sample size and 26 goals in that span isn't good enough.