Speculation: Jets vs Leafs: why were there 2 different results?

[Saidin]

Well I've noticed that he's more conscious of when he picks his spots and isn't lugging the puck in as much. I think less is more with him. It could be for the reasons you've mentioned. I also think he put too much pressure on himself and tried to carry too much of the load so to speak. I think he should now realize that we have the talent where he doesn't need to do everything and hopefully that results in Buff being back to his form of a couple of seasons ago. Also subtle changes for a player as talented as Buff make for big differences on the ice imo.

This. To get us anywhere, we need good Buff. Not the Buff we had all year.

Less is more with Buff.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

I've consistently questioned Maurice's coaching, going back to 2014/15. I think he has strengths and weaknesses and I'm not sure he's the right coach for this roster. But I also recognize that he's had a lot of headwinds this season, including injuries, poor goaltending, and uneven performance by veteran defensemen. I think it's not strictly about a change in systems or competence this year.

Season - Close Score CF% (league rank)
2014/15 - 54.13% (#1)
2015/16 - 51.17% (#10)
2016/17 - 48.46% (#22)

We appear to be trending in the wrong direction. You can't pin a drop like that on injuries and schedule.

I think Maurice has overcoached himself into this jam. We played a simple and highly effective style that suited our personnel when he first arrived. Now he's coached his useless defensive zone coverage idea into our team, and even worse, seems to be valuing zone time over productive possession (ie. shots).

No one is saying his competence has changed. All coaches have shelf lives, and only have so many times that they can "sell" their approach to the players.

 

[Evil Little]

How have the Leafs won one more game than the Jets? Must be because they're the beacon of progressive management while the Jets are morons and dinosaurs.

Now compare the injury situation to the Ottawa Senators. 1 top-6 player out for the entire season. Additionally, each one of their top-6 players has been out for significant chunks of time this season. Their #1 goalie out for a huge chunk, their d corps has been decimated with injuries lately and they don't have the talent level that the Jets have, yet it seems they will make the playoffs

Having injuries and having injuries with a goalie that can keep you in games are two different things.

Season - Close Score CF% (league rank)
2014/15 - 54.13% (#1)
2015/16 - 51.17% (#10)
2016/17 - 48.46% (#22)

We appear to be trending in the wrong direction. You can't pin a drop like that on injuries and schedule.

I think Maurice has overcoached himself into this jam. We played a simple and highly effective style that suited our personnel when he first arrived. Now he's coached his useless defensive zone coverage idea into our team, and even worse, seems to be valuing zone time over productive possession (ie. shots).

No one is saying his competence has changed. All coaches have shelf lives, and only have so many times that they can "sell" their approach to the players.

The Jets' increasing inability to drive play is a bigger concern to me than some things that are routinely brought up, and I can only hope that to Maurice the system as coached this year is merely a step toward changes that regain an edge in that department. I have just as little evidence for that as you do about his preference for zone time, though.

Thankfully, I think system (and/or coaching) changes could solve a large number of the issues that have plagued the Jets this year.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

The Jets' increasing inability to drive play is a bigger concern to me than some things that are routinely brought up, and I can only hope that to Maurice the system as coached this year is merely a step toward changes that regain an edge in that department. I have just as little evidence for that as you do about his preference for zone time, though.

Thankfully, I think system (and/or coaching) changes could solve a large number of the issues that have plagued the Jets this year.

Might be hard to find statistical evidence, as I'm not sure anyone even bothers tracking zone time these days. Maurice's preference is somewhat supported by eye test evidence, though. Look no further than his love affair with the Matthias-Lowry-Armia third line, a line that cycled well but did little else in the offensive zone.

Bringing it back to the Leafs comparison, I don't think you need to look any deeper than last season. Babcock, despite having one of the worst rosters of the cap era at his disposal, coached the Leafs into plus possession territory. Far tougher hand than what Maurice has been dealt at any point during his tenure with the Jets.

While I certainly agree that goaltending and injuries have played a part, there is absolutely no way you can discount coaching as one of the main reasons why Toronto is ahead of us at this point.

 

[Flair Hay]

If the biggest problem is that we don't have a coach the calibre of Babcock, what are the chances there is a coach out there that can solve this?

Only one I could see being out there is Sutter and he's just as elite as Babcock if not better. And I think a few teams would move heaven and earth and pay through the nose to get. He will be the new highest paid coach in the league if LA fires him.

 

[tbcwpg]

Leafs are very similar to the Jets when they made the playoffs - they currently have the highest loser point total of any team currently in a playoff spot. They've managed to get to the playoffs with only one more win than the Jets thanks to the OT system, and they managed it with a largely healthy roster all season.

By all accounts, they shouldn't be a playoff team, but they are thanks to that loser point, and perhaps Babcock is a big reason why they're a team that shouldn't be where they are, since their roster is not as strong as some of the other teams that are currently outside of the playoffs.

 

[ps241]

Might be hard to find statistical evidence, as I'm not sure anyone even bothers tracking zone time these days. Maurice's preference is somewhat supported by eye test evidence, though. Look no further than his love affair with the Matthias-Lowry-Armia third line, a line that cycled well but did little else in the offensive zone.

Bringing it back to the Leafs comparison, I don't think you need to look any deeper than last season. Babcock, despite having one of the worst rosters of the cap era at his disposal, coached the Leafs into plus possession territory. Far tougher hand than what Maurice has been dealt at any point during his tenure with the Jets.

While I certainly agree that goaltending and injuries have played a part, there is absolutely no way you can discount coaching as one of the main reasons why Toronto is ahead of us at this point.

Excellent post Hank.

I don't get TNSE's tracking of zone time either? This is not being fair and I am in a cheery mood today but it's like a Tommy Boy owner/GM heard possession was a good thing and they mistakenly thought that meant possession as in "retention of the puck" vs possession as in driving the play and "short generation"

To the second bolded I agree with your comments on Babcock.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

Season - Close Score CF% (league rank)
2014/15 - 54.13% (#1)
2015/16 - 51.17% (#10)
2016/17 - 48.46% (#22)

We appear to be trending in the wrong direction. You can't pin a drop like that on injuries and schedule.

I think Maurice has overcoached himself into this jam. We played a simple and highly effective style that suited our personnel when he first arrived. Now he's coached his useless defensive zone coverage idea into our team, and even worse, seems to be valuing zone time over productive possession (ie. shots).

No one is saying his competence has changed. All coaches have shelf lives, and only have so many times that they can "sell" their approach to the players.

This is my biggest concern with PoMo at the moment.

That said lots of people were still wanting to lynch him last season because "winning is all that matters" while Babcock gets a pass for his last place finish last year because his team was "playing the right way" or "playing hard"

 

[surixon]

Excellent post Hank.

I don't get TNSE's tracking of zone time either? This is not being fair and I am in a cheery mood today but it's like a Tommy Boy owner/GM heard possession was a good thing and they mistakenly thought that meant possession as in "retention of the puck" vs possession as in driving the play and "short generation"

To the second bolded I agree with your comments on Babcock.

Well we know that they track shot data as well including putting an emphasis on red zone chances. So it's not like they only track zone time. I do think Maurice does overemphasize zone time especially when it comes to his shut down line. I guess his philosophy is he'd rather pin the other teams better line deep with MLA than have them try to out score them (I don't personally agree with this philosophy)

I don't think he cares about zone time with his top 6 and he's indicated numerous times that those lines try to get too cute and pass up shots too often. I think for those lines he wants to win the possesion battle but indicated he wanted some of our young skilled guys like Laine to figure things out in the ozone with minimal direction by the coaching staff.

It comes down to his 3rd line philosophy, if he changes his tune to a 3 scoring line system imo we start to control possesion again like we did a few years ago.

 

[Duke749]

Injuries, schedule, goaltending, yes, these are all issues, but the big problem is that this group is a bunch of losers. All year long with the excuses, and now the narrative is "woe is me" we need to to work so hard to compete even though the games are meaningless.....waaaaa

This is just lazy with nothing to support while everything else are facts that play a part. How much is what is up for debate but to say they are just excuses is just being lazy. If those are excuses then every time something doesn't work out, the reasons being are nothing but excuses.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

Well we know that they track shot data as well including putting an emphasis on red zone chances. So it's not like they only track zone time. I do think Maurice does overemphasize zone time especially when it comes to his shut down line. I guess his philosophy is he'd rather pin the other teams better line deep with MLA than have them try to out score them (I don't personally agree with this philosophy)

I don't think he cares about zone time with his top 6 and he's indicated numerous times that those lines try to get too cute and pass up shots too often. I think for those lines he wants to win the possesion battle but indicated he wanted some of our young skilled guys like Laine to figure things out in the ozone with minimal direction by the coaching staff.

It comes down to his 3rd line philosophy, if he changes his tune to a 3 scoring line system imo we start to control possesion again like we did a few years ago.

PoMo did start this season with a "scoring 3rd line" with MP at center and Burmi or Connor was it?

I'd guess he'd like to get back there.

 

[allthisgold]

I don't really believe that the Leafs give up less quality chances but that is just my eye test. I have not looked at any analytics to back it up. The goaltending difference between the two teams is huge.

The Jets goalies have faced 2,435 shots and made 2,199 saves for a save% of 0.90308. The Leafs goalies have faced 2,471 shots and made 2,264 saves for a save% of 0.91623. Take the difference in save percentage (I know this is simplistic) and multiply by the amount of shots that the Jets goalies have faced (0.01315 X 2,435) and we would have had 32 less goals against. The Jets are currently a negative 12 in their goal differential. Take away anywhere close to the 32 goals and we would have a positive goal differential. Every team in the West with a positive goal differential is currently sitting in a playoff spot.

This analysis is somewhat useful if the quality of shots given up are similar. We watch the Jets every night and know that they give up quality shots against. However I think that a lot of team do. We just notice it more as this is our team and our goalies allow these chances to be goals against more often.

This is the frustrating thing about this year. If we had a better back up that could maybe emerge and take 40 starts then we may have been good enough to get into the playoffs (or at least have these last games be meaningful). I know we needed Hutch to expose in the expansion draft but perhaps we could have exposed whoever we signed instead of Hutch?

I don't think we are actually far behind the Leafs, Senators, Flames, etc... if we sign a good goalie this offseason.

 

[Ducky10]

This is my biggest concern with PoMo at the moment.

That said lots of people were still wanting to lynch him last season because "winning is all that matters" while Babcock gets a pass for his last place finish last year because his team was "playing the right way" or "playing hard"

His org was in full out, free fall, tank mode. With like a billboard outside that said as much.

What the hell are you on about?

Babcock has still got more out of a less talented roster than Maurice, regardless of goaltending or injuries. The Jets have been relatively healthy in the second half and have little more to show for it.

 

[Ducky10]

If the biggest problem is that we don't have a coach the calibre of Babcock, what are the chances there is a coach out there that can solve this?

Only one I could see being out there is Sutter and he's just as elite as Babcock if not better. And I think a few teams would move heaven and earth and pay through the nose to get. He will be the new highest paid coach in the league if LA fires him.

I don't think we need a Babcock, the Jets are a more talented team than the Leafs imo. They just need a couple of holes plugged and a coach who can get the most out of them. Maurice has until about Christmas to show he's that guy, I hope he succeeds.

 

[ps241]

I don't really believe that the Leafs give up less quality chances but that is just my eye test. I have not looked at any analytics to back it up. The goaltending difference between the two teams is huge.

The Jets goalies have faced 2,435 shots and made 2,199 saves for a save% of 0.90308. The Leafs goalies have faced 2,471 shots and made 2,264 saves for a save% of 0.91623. Take the difference in save percentage (I know this is simplistic) and multiply by the amount of shots that the Jets goalies have faced (0.01315 X 2,435) and we would have had 32 less goals against. The Jets are currently a negative 12 in their goal differential. Take away anywhere close to the 32 goals and we would have a positive goal differential. Every team in the West with a positive goal differential is currently sitting in a playoff spot.

This analysis is somewhat useful if the quality of shots given up are similar. We watch the Jets every night and know that they give up quality shots against. However I think that a lot of team do. We just notice it more as this is our team and our goalies allow these chances to be goals against more often.

This is the frustrating thing about this year. If we had a better back up that could maybe emerge and take 40 starts then we may have been good enough to get into the playoffs (or at least have these last games be meaningful). I know we needed Hutch to expose in the expansion draft but perhaps we could have exposed whoever we signed instead of Hutch?


I don't think we are actually far behind the Leafs, Senators, Flames, etc... if we sign a good goalie this offseason.

Ding Ding to the bolded we have lots to fix but really only need to fix one thing to get in the playoffs next season.

Just tuning into the Leafs Sabres game and have full envy and here are the introductions:

Freddie Andersen starts his career high 64th game (must be nice) and has a save % of .919. Then they go to the defensive train wreck that is the 2017-18 Sabres and they announce Robyn Lehner who is starting his 55th game of the season and is sporting a .921 save %.

News Flash to Chevy: The leafs didn't draft Andersen, the Sabres didn't draft Lehner because they let you go out and trade for guys like this at a reasonable COST BENEFIT.



Do your job and fix the ****ing net.

 

[Saintb]

His org was in full out, free fall, tank mode. With like a billboard outside that said as much.

What the hell are you on about?

Babcock has still got more out of a less talented roster than Maurice, regardless of goaltending or injuries. The Jets have been relatively healthy in the second half and have little more to show for it.

plus that was his first year with the club.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

This. To get us anywhere, we need good Buff. Not the Buff we had all year.

Less is more with Buff.

I feel like we need to get to the bottom of this. Just so we're clear, this season's "bad Buff" is:

-tied for 5th in scoring among NHL defensemen
-still a plus possession player (50.8% CF to date this season)
-allowing 2.57 even-strength goals per 60 minutes, which puts him above Trouba, Morrissey, and Enstrom

It would be helpful to hear what exactly has been bad about Buff this season. Are we talking about the perception that he's not giving it his all? Untimely mistakes?

 

[Ducky10]

I feel like we need to get to the bottom of this. Just so we're clear, this season's "bad Buff" is:

-tied for 5th in scoring among NHL defensemen
-still a plus possession player (50.8% CF to date this season)
-allowing 2.57 even-strength goals per 60 minutes, which puts him above Trouba, Morrissey, and Enstrom

It would be helpful to hear what exactly has been bad about Buff this season. Are we talking about the perception that he's not giving it his all? Untimely mistakes?

You forgot selfish.

 

[JetsFan815]

How was Maurice able to coach such an effective 5v5 system in 2014/15? Did he get dumber? It's a bit of a mystery.

I think there are a number of reasons why he hasn't been able to be as effective as 2014/15, but many seem to be reluctant to consider anything other than his incompetence. I think that's simplistic.

My posting history is public, I defended Maurice last season, esp when some posters were trying to lay the blame of the bad season at his feet and even trying to make Maurice take the blame for Thorburn and Stuart contracts. I have never called Maurice "dumb" or "incompetent", I think everyone is capable of making good and bad decisions and it seems to me that this season Mo has made more bad ones than good. We will see if it continues next season. For everyone's sake, lets hope he can right the ship next season

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Ding Ding to the bolded we have lots to fix but really only need to fix one thing to get in the playoffs next season.

Just tuning into the Leafs Sabres game and have full envy and here are the introductions:

Freddie Andersen starts his career high 64th game (must be nice) and has a save % of .919. Then they go to the defensive train wreck that is the 2017-18 Sabres and they announce Robyn Lehner who is starting his 55th game of the season and is sporting a .921 save %.

News Flash to Chevy: The leafs didn't draft Andersen, the Sabres didn't draft Lehner because they let you go out and trade for guys like this at a reasonable COST BENEFIT.



Do your job and fix the ****ing net.

This.

And defensive trainwreck is an understatement, wow! Lehner is going to throat punch one of them at this rate.

 

[JetsFan815]

You forgot selfish.

And also catchy sounding insults like "Bear league Buff"

 

[JetsFan815]

Ding Ding to the bolded we have lots to fix but really only need to fix one thing to get in the playoffs next season.

Just tuning into the Leafs Sabres game and have full envy and here are the introductions:

Freddie Andersen starts his career high 64th game (must be nice) and has a save % of .919. Then they go to the defensive train wreck that is the 2017-18 Sabres and they announce Robyn Lehner who is starting his 55th game of the season and is sporting a .921 save %.

News Flash to Chevy: The leafs didn't draft Andersen, the Sabres didn't draft Lehner because they let you go out and trade for guys like this at a reasonable COST BENEFIT.



Do your job and fix the ****ing net.

This.

And defensive trainwreck is an understatement, wow! Lehner is going to throat punch one of them at this rate.

And the sad thing is, Sabres fans complain about Lehner and that trade. They have no idea how good they have it.

 

[ps241]

And the sad thing is, Sabres fans complain about Lehner and that trade. They have no idea how good they have it.

Really loved Zachy Goj but man am I glad he isn't our problem any more.

 

[surixon]

I wonder what the Sabres excuse is for being worse than us given they have above average goaltending.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

His org was in full out, free fall, tank mode. With like a billboard outside that said as much.

What the hell are you on about?

Babcock has still got more out of a less talented roster than Maurice, regardless of goaltending or injuries. The Jets have been relatively healthy in the second half and have little more to show for it.

What do you mean what the he'll am I on about? Have I not been clear and concise? Just because you don't agree with me doesn't mean I'm way out to lunch with this.

Babcock still had an NHL roster last season with some very respectable players. He finished last in the league. You'd think the "best coach in the game" would have done better if coaching is so paramount to success regardless of roster.

It's hilarious people are pointing to Babcocks roster as the reason for the lack of success last year yet don't think the same of the Jets. Andrew Ladd was bad last year after his surgery. Lowry **** the bed. So on and so forth.... and then the Jets went full tank as well.

Yes the Jets got quite a bit healthier around Xmas this year but it was pretty apparent that guys like MP, Armia, Matthias were not up to game speed when they came back or still battling injuries.

Now despite loosing a boat load of D men they have managed to go 11-6-3. Their PP has improved immensely since mid December and their overall game and I believe Corsi stats have also all climbed since mid season or so....

Anyways. Coaching is probably certainly a factor between the two teams to some degree. The Leafs however have 1 more win than the Jets this year.... Think about that, 1 Win....