Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 16-17 Part XVII

[Gm0ney]

If only there was some stretch of games during the season where results didn't matter and we could experiment with wild flights of fancy like Petan with competent linemates...oh well.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

Mort you make it sound like Lowry is playing with all stars.

For the most part Lowry has been playing with pretty mediocre players.

I could be very wrong here but his best linemates he has consistently played with has probably been armia and it's not like armia has been an offensive force in the NHL.

 

[irunthepeg]

Hanifin is apparently available. What would you guys give up for him? I'd easily go Enstrom + Connor/Roslovic... I don't even feel that would be enough.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I would offer Ehlers for Hanifin

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Mort you make it sound like Lowry is playing with all stars.

For the most part Lowry has been playing with pretty mediocre players.

I could be very wrong here but his best linemates he has consistently played with has probably been armia and it's not like armia has been an offensive force in the NHL.

No. Not at all. But he is playing with linemates that he is suited to. If Lowry is being judged on his offense then he is not doing all that well.

But I'm not really talking about Lowry at all except that he is holding the spot that Petan should either have or be in training for. I am talking about Petan and the way he is being set up to fail.

Petan is playing with Thorburn and Tanev or with himself in the PB. And then being judged on his offense, or lack of it. My guess is that Petan would kill for some mediocre linemates.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I would offer Ehlers for Hanifin

Love ehlers but agree.

 

[surixon]

I would offer Ehlers for Hanifin

Heck no from me. The last thing this team needs to do is overpay for an ok young dmen.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hanifin is apparently available. What would you guys give up for him? I'd easily go Enstrom + Connor/Roslovic... I don't even feel that would be enough.

I have a hard time putting a price on him. He has not been very good so far. I think he was rushed to the NHL. But he still has great potential.

That should = Connor. The fact that Connor seems ready makes me hesitate but you have to give to get and you have to take a risk to win. I think Connor probably achieves to a higher level than Roslo but I'm even more reluctant to part with a potential 2C.

So, very reluctantly I would do Connor for Hanifin straight up.

I think I might prefer to aim for Fleury instead at a lower price if a deal could be made.

 

[Gm0ney]

I would offer Ehlers for Hanifin

I don't want to trade away Laine's best friend. Trouba's been sulking since Bogo got sent to Buffalo!

Still - an XD-exempt left handed offensive defenseman who could step right in...be worth a lot to the Jets. Our 1st + Stanley? Lol. Okay 1st + Stanley + Petan?

 

[Dirty30]

Hanifin is apparently available. What would you guys give up for him? I'd easily go Enstrom + Connor/Roslovic... I don't even feel that would be enough.

It would be nice to try and get Aho in that deal as well if possible.

 

[Huffer]

Hanifin would be a nice add, but the Canes are likely looking for established scoring.

Connor would be the best fit from our side, but I would imagine they would want Ehlers.

I'd do it with Connor, but not Ehlers.

 

[Rheged]

I feel like there probably could be a deal around Ehlers/Connor for a young defenseman that could really help the Jets out in the long run but I'm not confident Hanifin is that guy.

Prior to this season I would have tried to go after Werenski but that's not going to be a possibility any more for sure.. I'm not really sure who else I would try to target at this point.

 

[Whileee]

One more goal scored has equal value to one fewer goal against...
Being relatively worse at one area in the league doesn't make the value change.

It would mean that it is easier to improve upon through the free markets (trade or sign). My point was that internally the Jets could have improved their goals for. They didn't have an internal option to improve their goaltending.

The one caveat being that the Jets often trailed early which impacts results (butterfly effect), causing them to play riskier which can lead to more goals against, worse save percentage, and more pk mins.

If we want to look at trade-offs, Lowry-Armia lines with Copp and with Matthias were 49.0% and 49.2% Corsi%. Their repression was fine, but their creation hurt the team relatively more than their suppression helped.

If you rather look at it through goals than Corsi, they were +15/-20 (which is actually worse than their Corsi%, but Jets had bad goaltending this year, so that is expected).

Understood. But these things aren't always predictable. If the Jets reconfigured lines to improve scoring, they might have also ended up allowing even more goals against, especially if that line was facing potent opposition lines.

One interesting note confirmed the eye test and some of your analysis... Maurice said that one of the style / system changes this year was more movement and passing and less shot volume to enhance scoring chances and increase offensive zone time with fewer turnovers and transition against I'm not sure that's the best strategy, except it might work reasonably well for a line like Lowry's, especially when they are matched against tough offensive lines. According to Corsica, Lowry's line generated considerably more scoring chances than they conceded and had a positive xGF%. That sort of conforms to the eye test as they tend to have low shot volume and tend to cycle the puck until they getting a higher probability shot.

 

[bumblebeeman]

I know the term should be used lightly but I'd say Ehlers is pretty much untouchable. He is going to be such a star and fits with the young core so well. I'd be ok with trading Connor maybe though, but I'd honestly rather trade Wheeler (tho I doubt the Canes would want him because of contract & age).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I would offer Ehlers for Hanifin

I wouldn't do that even if Hanifin had been living up to expectations. Since he hasn't, it is not no but **** no!

Right now Ehlers is very, very good. Hanifin is very, very meh. Each has about the same potential for improvement. If, big if, Hanifin improves quite a lot he will get up to where Ehlers already is.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't want to trade away Laine's best friend. Trouba's been sulking since Bogo got sent to Buffalo!

Still - an XD-exempt left handed offensive defenseman who could step right in...be worth a lot to the Jets. Our 1st + Stanley? Lol. Okay 1st + Stanley + Petan?

That I do!

How about Stanley + Petan for Fleury?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I feel like there probably could be a deal around Ehlers/Connor for a young defenseman that could really help the Jets out in the long run but I'm not confident Hanifin is that guy.

Prior to this season I would have tried to go after Werenski but that's not going to be a possibility any more for sure.. I'm not really sure who else I would try to target at this point.

If we are moving Ehlers it has to be Werenski.

Not sure I would do that either. Have to stew on it a while.

 

[Evil Little]

If we are moving Ehlers it has to be Werenski.

Not sure I would do that either. Have to stew on it a while.

Well, Werenski isn't available.

 

[garret9]

Understood. But these things aren't always predictable. If the Jets reconfigured lines to improve scoring, they might have also ended up allowing even more goals against, especially if that line was facing potent opposition lines.

One interesting note confirmed the eye test and some of your analysis... Maurice said that one of the style / system changes this year was more movement and passing and less shot volume to enhance scoring chances and increase offensive zone time with fewer turnovers and transition against I'm not sure that's the best strategy, except it might work reasonably well for a line like Lowry's, especially when they are matched against tough offensive lines. According to Corsica, Lowry's line generated considerably more scoring chances than they conceded and had a positive xGF%. That sort of conforms to the eye test as they tend to have low shot volume and tend to cycle the puck until they getting a higher probability shot.

Lowry-Armia had one great line at xGF% and one bad line at xGF%.

We know for a fact that Corsi% is more predictive than Corsica's xGF% because xGF% tends to be more highly susceptible to variance.
I also know for a fact that zone time does a lot worse than Corsi% in predicting future GF%.

So, when I see Lowry-Armia having elite xG% on one line and terrible xG% on another line, but similar Corsi, I'm going to go with the Corsi results every time.

 

[Flair Hay]

If only there was some stretch of games during the season where results didn't matter and we could experiment with wild flights of fancy like Petan with competent linemates...oh well.

Fair point...very fair.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

If only there was some stretch of games during the season where results didn't matter and we could experiment with wild flights of fancy like Petan with competent linemates...oh well.

Right. How much would this have hurt to try?

Laine - Scheifele - Ehlers
Armia/Dano - Little - Wheeler
Perreault - Petan - Dano/Armia
Copp - Lowry - Thorburn/Tanev

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well, Werenski isn't available.

Whew, that's a relief. I was going to explode trying to decide.

 

[ffh]

Garbage time starts are a reward for ahlers for a good year comrie roslovic connor not for players who played themselves into pb to get rewarded with playing higher up in lineup over players that have outplayed all year.

 

[ps241]

At this point I am a bit less concerned about our defense than most of our posters for "NEXT SEASON". We will start out with 4.5 top D assets in:

Trouba
Buff
Morrissey
Myers
Enstrom.

That is a decent stable of assets so in my mind if we want to get a top 4 LHD man I would prefer trading Myers to get that as opposed to giving up a high end forward asset "yet". Now that Myers move would be making that massive assumption Jacob is part of our long term plans. If Jacob isn't part of our long term plans I assume that his trade will involve defensive assets coming back as in 1 for 1 which could solve the handedness in one swoop or more likely in a package deal where we could take Trouba and forward assets and bundle them to address both our top 4 D and our prospect depth at defense.

In summary I am not sweating it next season we have a nice looking top 5 D core.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

At this point I am a bit less concerned about our defense than most of our posters for "NEXT SEASON". We will start out with 4.5 top D assets in:

Trouba
Buff
Morrissey
Myers
Enstrom.

That is a decent stable of assets so in my mind if we want to get a top 4 LHD man I would prefer trading Myers to get that as opposed to giving up a high end forward asset "yet". Now that Myers move would be making that massive assumption Jacob is part of our long term plans. If Jacob isn't part of our long term plans I assume that his trade will involve defensive assets coming back as in 1 for 1 which could solve the handedness in one swoop or more likely in a package deal where we could take Trouba and forward assets and bundle them to address both our top 4 D and our prospect depth at defense.

In summary I am not sweating it next season we have a nice looking top 5 D core.

Right away you come to the stumbling block. We need some certainty with Trouba. The uncertainty gets in the way.

You are assuming that Myers is still a top 4 D and that he still has substantial trade value. I'm not jumping in to the 'career ending' injury pool but there is doubt about his future.

Still, without Myers we should have a strong top 4:
Morrissey - Trouba
Enstrom - Buff
though it begs the question, why was our D so poor this year? It wasn't injuries because, apart from Myers the D injuries all came late in the season.