Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 16-17 Part XVII

[Puckatron 3000]

I agree that Maurice wants a shutdown line. I would also say that Lowry's shutdown line was used to pretty good effect this year. So I have no problem with it.

Whether we call Lowry's shutdown line the 3rd or the 4th moving forward is kind of cosmetic to me. Maybe it plays more or less based on opponent, whether we have last change, or based on how effectively they are playing. What's more important is what we do with our (currently 4th) line.

The 4th didn't gel this year. That is partially on Maurice. And partially on circumstance, as players performing poorly were demoted to the 4th (as I seem to recall Stafford was), or promoted upward due to injury (e.g. Copp). I believe Maurice viewed it as more important to keep the top 9 rolling than optimize the 4th, and the 4th suffered as a result. Add to that the rotation of prospects he wanted to give a chance to play (without disrupting the other lines), and it just didn't have much stability.

Still, I think I can speak for most of us when I hope that skilled younger players like Petan, Connor, Roslovic, Dano, and maybe Armia or Copp can cobble together a bottom 6 scoring line. We don't need Tanev on that line if we already have a Lowry shutdown line.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

this might be the highest pick they get for the next ten years. they have to keep it and get a future star.

never trade the first round draft picks.

 

[surixon]

I agree that Maurice wants a shutdown line. I would also say that Lowry's shutdown line was used to pretty good effect this year. So I have no problem with it.

Whether we call Lowry's shutdown line the 3rd or the 4th moving forward is kind of cosmetic to me. Maybe it plays more or less based on opponent, whether we have last change, or based on how effectively they are playing. What's more important is what we do with our (currently 4th) line.

The 4th didn't gel this year. That is partially on Maurice. And partially on circumstance, as players performing poorly were demoted to the 4th (as I seem to recall Stafford was), or promoted upward due to injury (e.g. Copp). I believe Maurice viewed it as more important to keep the top 9 rolling than optimize the 4th, and the 4th suffered as a result. Add to that the rotation of prospects he wanted to give a chance to play (without disrupting the other lines), and it just didn't have much stability.

Still, I think I can speak for most of us when I hope that skilled younger players like Petan, Connor, Roslovic, Dano, and maybe Armia or Copp can cobble together a bottom 6 scoring line. We don't need Tanev on that line if we already have a Lowry shutdown line.

I think Maurice is a spread most of the minutes through 3 lines coach. I don't think he has any intention of marginalizing Lowry or Armia's role next season. He likes them too much from a defensive and possesion stand point. I do think he and the organization are aware of the offensive limitations of that line and will look to improve the lines potency by having Connor play with them next season. I don't think it's a coincidence that Connor spent a significant amount of time in the AHL with Cormier as his centre. I think they will want to see if he can drive offense for Lowry and Armia like he did for Cormier and Lipon.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree that Maurice wants a shutdown line. I would also say that Lowry's shutdown line was used to pretty good effect this year. So I have no problem with it.

Whether we call Lowry's shutdown line the 3rd or the 4th moving forward is kind of cosmetic to me. Maybe it plays more or less based on opponent, whether we have last change, or based on how effectively they are playing. What's more important is what we do with our (currently 4th) line.

The 4th didn't gel this year. That is partially on Maurice. And partially on circumstance, as players performing poorly were demoted to the 4th (as I seem to recall Stafford was), or promoted upward due to injury (e.g. Copp). I believe Maurice viewed it as more important to keep the top 9 rolling than optimize the 4th, and the 4th suffered as a result. Add to that the rotation of prospects he wanted to give a chance to play (without disrupting the other lines), and it just didn't have much stability.

Still, I think I can speak for most of us when I hope that skilled younger players like Petan, Connor, Roslovic, Dano, and maybe Armia or Copp can cobble together a bottom 6 scoring line. We don't need Tanev on that line if we already have a Lowry shutdown line.

Mostly agree Puck. The 3/4 v 4/3 thing isn't about the label. That doesn't matter. TOI matters. So do the other issues you mentioned. There was no effort made last year to be a 4 line team, regardless of the types of lines for the bottom 6. What we had was a 4th that was a punishment line, a training wheels line, occasionally an energy line and on and on. TBH I think what was done with the bottom of our roster was just plain ridiculous. The late season press boxing of Petan and Dano in favour of Tanev and Thor was the crowning achievement.

I enjoyed the play of the MLA line but that was more Armia than the other 2. Matthias and Lowry could make up 2/3rds of a very good 4th line. If you must play Tanev he would fit there but we have better players who should be there ahead of him.

Dano/Copp/Petan - Petan/Copp - Armia/Dano would make up a good 3rd line. It would not be a shutdown line like MLA but it would be able to score and defend. There are lots of possible combinations. Pretty sure one of them would find 'chemistry'. There are question marks attached to each of those players but this would give the players a chance to remove them:
Is Copp a C or a winger going forward? Will his scoring develop?
Can Petan be effective offensively at the NHL level? Can he be 'good enough' defensively?
Can Dano turn his promise into a consistent NHL player? Which wing should he play? Or should he be used on whichever one has a need?
Has Armia become limited to checking/defense/PK? Or will his offense emerge if he gets decent linemates?

All those questions legitimately apply to those players. They are not being answered the way they are being used, or not used. This was a year wasted in part to develop our young players. So develop them, dammit! This was the year to experiment and find out what we have in these players. /

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

never trade the first round draft picks.

Is that written in stone? Don't trade picks for what we need? Never?

 

[garret9]

The issue I had is none of the third lines we used scored at or above a third line pace.

This made the Jets overly reliant on top 2 line scoring.

When they got shut down, Jets lost.

When they out scored the team's goaltending, Jets won.

 

[puck stoppa]

The issue I had is none of the third lines we used scored at or above a third line pace.

This made the Jets overly reliant on top 2 line scoring.

When they got shut down, Jets lost.

When they out scored the team's goaltending, Jets won.

Nothing perreault petan armia can't fix when Connor starts in top 6

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Nothing perreault petan armia can't fix when Connor starts in top 6

The problems with our bottom 6 this year had nothing to do with having sufficiently skilled, talented players available. It was 100% coaching. By that I don't mean it was 100% wrong but the weaknesses were unnecessarily chosen by Maurice.

 

[csk]

Nothing perreault petan armia can't fix when Connor starts in top 6

I've been thinking about something similar

I want to run a 3rd line of:

Perreault-Petan-Dano

It seems to me that Petan plays really really well when zone entries come easily, and very poorly when we have to dump and chase. So the idea here is to play him with really good zone entry players in Perreault and Dano. Armia fits that puck retrieval role better so I keep him with Lowry, though he could also work on this line.

This only works though if Connor is *good enough* to play top 6 and Laine improves his shot metrics (otherwise I may want to play him with Perreault.)

Lineup would look something like this

Laine-Scheifele-Ehlers
Connor-Little-Wheeler
Perreault-Petan-Dano
Matthias/Copp-Lowry-Armia

If all these lines work out, we could basically roll 4 lines and not be too concerned about match-ups. This could go a long way to working past schedule issues.

 

[csk]

The problems with our bottom 6 this year had nothing to do with having sufficiently skilled, talented players available. It was 100% coaching. By that I don't mean it was 100% wrong but the weaknesses were unnecessarily chosen by Maurice.

This is exactly right.

 

[bumblebeeman]

I've been thinking about something similar

I want to run a 3rd line of:

Perreault-Petan-Dano

It seems to me that Petan plays really really well when zone entries come easily, and very poorly when we have to dump and chase. So the idea here is to play him with really good zone entry players in Perreault and Dano. Armia fits that puck retrieval role better so I keep him with Lowry, though he could also work on this line.

This only works though if Connor is *good enough* to play top 6 and Laine improves his shot metrics (otherwise I may want to play him with Perreault.)

Lineup would look something like this

Laine-Scheifele-Ehlers
Connor-Little-Wheeler
Perreault-Petan-Dano
Matthias/Copp-Lowry-Armia

If all these lines work out, we could basically roll 4 lines and not be too concerned about match-ups. This could go a long way to working past schedule issues.

That looks great! And if Petan doesn't work out Roslovic could look good centering those guys as well.

 

[ffh]

15>1 no matter who coaches this team.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

15>1 no matter who coaches this team.

Apples to oranges. Doesn't mean a lot.

 

[ffh]

Apples to oranges. Doesn't mean a lot.

If that's not apples to apples then i don't know what is. Let the guy go work on his game on the moose. Even if it takes 2 more years before he gets called up that would be 2 years earlier then st. Louis and zuccarello

 

[KingBogo]

The issue I had is none of the third lines we used scored at or above a third line pace.

This made the Jets overly reliant on top 2 line scoring.

When they got shut down, Jets lost.

When they out scored the team's goaltending, Jets won.

Not often did the top 6 get shut down. Far more often they needed to outscore their goaltending.

The Jets were 11th GF60 and 29th GA60 and 27th SV% 5-5. Seems to me keeping the puck out of the net was a far bigger concern than secondary scoring.

 

[Whileee]

The issue I had is none of the third lines we used scored at or above a third line pace.

This made the Jets overly reliant on top 2 line scoring.

When they got shut down, Jets lost.

When they out scored the team's goaltending, Jets won.

I don't think scoring was near the top of the Jets' problems this season.

Still, I would like to see more balance. I think that either Perreault or Dano should be playing on the 3rd line with Lowry and Armia, and the Jets should roll out a 4th line that can score some (e.g. Copp-Petan-Roslovic). Connor up to the 2nd line with Little and Wheeler by mid-season, or before.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Sounds like the Hobert Baker winner could be going UFA.

 

[csk]

That looks great! And if Petan doesn't work out Roslovic could look good centering those guys as well.

Pretty much anyone would. Burmistrov looked good between them at the end of 2015/16. I like Petan in that spot because I think he could bring the offense to another level. Roslovic might bring a more well rounded game, but that's not really what that line needs IMO.

I've been toying with the idea of calling up Roslovic whenever someone in the top 9 gets injured and just pluging him in that spot, rather than promoting a guy from that checking line. It might create a problem though if it looks like guys can't get promoted when they're playing well. What does everyone else think about this?

 

[garret9]

Not often did the top 6 get shut down. Far more often they needed to outscore their goaltending.

The Jets were 11th GF60 and 29th GA60 and 27th SV% 5-5. Seems to me keeping the puck out of the net was a far bigger concern than secondary scoring.

I don't think scoring was near the top of the Jets' problems this season.

Still, I would like to see more balance. I think that either Perreault or Dano should be playing on the 3rd line with Lowry and Armia, and the Jets should roll out a 4th line that can score some (e.g. Copp-Petan-Roslovic). Connor up to the 2nd line with Little and Wheeler by mid-season, or before.

One more goal scored has equal value to one fewer goal against...
Being relatively worse at one area in the league doesn't make the value change.

It would mean that it is easier to improve upon through the free markets (trade or sign). My point was that internally the Jets could have improved their goals for. They didn't have an internal option to improve their goaltending.

The one caveat being that the Jets often trailed early which impacts results (butterfly effect), causing them to play riskier which can lead to more goals against, worse save percentage, and more pk mins.

If we want to look at trade-offs, Lowry-Armia lines with Copp and with Matthias were 49.0% and 49.2% Corsi%. Their repression was fine, but their creation hurt the team relatively more than their suppression helped.

If you rather look at it through goals than Corsi, they were +15/-20 (which is actually worse than their Corsi%, but Jets had bad goaltending this year, so that is expected).

 

[trebendan]

One KHL UFA I was interested to see was A. Kulda. He'd make a fine partner for Byfuglien. He'd be better than Stuart, Strait, Melchiori and Chiarot. Would he come back here if he was offered a 1-way deal?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If that's not apples to apples then i don't know what is. Let the guy go work on his game on the moose. Even if it takes 2 more years before he gets called up that would be 2 years earlier then st. Louis and zuccarello

I'm not getting you to bake any pies.

2 vastly different styles of player given vastly different usages and roles. Good grief! If you don't see that you are just refusing to look.

Petan is a playmaker. Just think about that for a while. I shouldn't have to say any more to make my point.

 

[GJF]

One KHL UFA I was interested to see was A. Kulda. He'd make a fine partner for Byfuglien. He'd be better than Stuart, Strait, Melchiori and Chiarot. Would he come back here if he was offered a 1-way deal?

I HIGHLY doubt Kulda would ever consider returning to this franchise. I would not in his place. Never got any chance to play.

 

[trebendan]

I HIGHLY doubt Kulda would ever consider returning to this franchise. I would not in his place. Never got any chance to play.

I agree with all that, but that was when Claude Noel was coach. Maurice has some understanding of the KHL, having coached there.

 

[ffh]

I'm not getting you to bake any pies.

2 vastly different styles of player given vastly different usages and roles. Good grief! If you don't see that you are just refusing to look.

Petan is a playmaker. Just think about that for a while. I shouldn't have to say any more to make my point.

Ok i thought about it.
Comparing the centre you want to replace with the centre you want to replace him with is comparing apples to oranges. Good grief. Here is an example of apples to oranges. Comparing petan to thorburn when copp replaces petan at centre. You see because 1 is a winger and 1 is a centre who hadn't played 1 shift this year on the wing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ok i thought about it.
Comparing the centre you want to replace with the centre you want to replace him with is comparing apples to oranges. Good grief. Here is an example of apples to oranges. Comparing petan to thorburn when copp replaces petan at centre. You see because 1 is a winger and 1 is a centre who hadn't played 1 shift this year on the wing.

Wrote a sarcastic response. Thought better of it. Lets discuss this.

To start I love Lowry so this is not me trying to knock him down in any way. Since first sight Paul Maurice has loved Lowry more than I do and probably more than you do too. He has bent over backwards to give Lowry every possible chance to succeed; move up the depth chart, minutes on both special teams, good linemates. I have no problem with that. Lowry is succeeding at least somewhat.

OTOH though, Petan has been given almost NO chance to succeed. He has been stuck on the 4th line with plugs, repeatedly. That is going to be difficult for any highly skilled offensive player. It is particularly so for Petan because the strength of his game is playmaking. He is not a big goal scorer. He sets up others to score the goals. Who the **** **** is he going to set up playing with the likes of Thor and Tanev?

Petan has been given some PP time, as has Lowry. This year Lowry has 9 PP pts, Petan 8. Lowry has a PDO of 108.6, Petan 98.9. Lowry's CF%rel is 1.1, Petan's 3.0. Lowry's PP pts/60 is a little higher but Petan's appears more sustainable. Both have done well with their PP opportunity on a weak PP unit.

In the end it is a matter of opportunity. Petan may or may not be a better 3C than Lowry. The way he has been used we will never find out. No opportunity. Lowry has been given every opportunity and has been adequate but has not excelled.

Petan should never have spent as much as a single shift on that 4th line. You keep repeating his 1 goal. Under those circumstances how much scoring can you expect? He should have been given an opportunity with decently skilled linemates on a scoring 3rd line. IF he was not successful there he should have been sent to the Moose. Thorburning him and healthy scratching him has been simply ridiculous. setting him up to fail and destroying his confidence is not development.

Does Petan simply belong in the AHL? Nobody knows. His 1 goal certainly is not proof of that. He does not belong in the press box and he does not belong on a 4th line with plugs.