Salary Cap: Jets approaching cap issues.

[Jet]

I think if we can sign Enstrom to one year deal and see what Niku does in next years TC that is they way to go. If Niku can show he's ready for the show then Enstrom becomes a depth option for next year and we let him walk after that. Buff should be the target for a trade. But if Trouba goes then we really have no choice but to keep Buff. So much of this hinges on Trouba's future here. Hendricks, Matthias, Dano, Lemieux and Petan's futures are all up in the air as well. Really it will come down to Tanev or them. As they would all need wiavers by 19/20 season. Stanley is also a bit of a wildcard for a depth option to replace Enstrom as well.

Yeah I am not anxious to get rid of Enstrom - I do still like him, BUT I think he's a sub $4MM player now. I like him at 3.5

Stanley - that was a really risky pick. He could still turn into a Chara - so who knows. It took Zdeno a long time and couple of orgs to really become a superstar, but idk.

I still do not see us keeping Trouba. He doesn't want to be here - end of story.

I think the Jets keep Hendricks into next season - he's been really valuable in his role, and more central to the teams success than many want to believe.

Matthias is toast, Dano and Petan are trade fodder at this point, it's painfully obvious that they do not fit what the team wants to do, and with Roslo, Connor, Lemieux trying to break in full time their skillset won't get them a roster spot here.

 

[Daximus]

Yeah I am not anxious to get rid of Enstrom - I do still like him, BUT I think he's a sub $4MM player now. I like him at 3.5

Stanley - that was a really risky pick. He could still turn into a Chara - so who knows. It took Zdeno a long time and couple of orgs to really become a superstar, but idk.

I still do not see us keeping Trouba. He doesn't want to be here - end of story.

I think the Jets keep Hendricks into next season - he's been really valuable in his role, and more central to the teams success than many want to believe.

Matthias is toast, Dano and Petan are trade fodder at this point, it's painfully obvious that they do not fit what the team wants to do, and with Roslo, Connor, Lemieux trying to break in full time their skillset won't get them a roster spot here.

Yeah I think we can get Enstrom on the cheap next year but after that he is likely allowed to walk and probably returns to Sweden. I see more of a Myers in Stanley than a Chara. I seriously doubt if he ever becomes much of a defensive force, his skill set is more suited for generating offence.

 

[Jet]

Yeah I think we can get Enstrom on the cheap next year but after that he is likely allowed to walk and probably returns to Sweden. I see more of a Myers in Stanley than a Chara. I seriously doubt if he ever becomes much of a defensive force, his skill set is more suited for generating offence.

Players will surprise you, though. I bet if we watched the young Frolik and Armia's and realized they were going to be strong defensive players we'd be shocked.

I think some guys just understand what they have to do to get to the next level. They realize that the skill they were successful with at lower levels will not cut it at the top tier.

This is what I don't think that Petan and Dano get - and I wonder if they ever will.

 

[Flair Hay]

We will have a pretty solid season and a half with Buff yet still. And most of our roster in tact. We will however need to make a decision on Hendricks, Matthias, Tanev, Petan, De Leo, Comrie and Dano this off season though. I'm pretty sure De Leo will pass through waivers though so it's likely we resign him and keep him with the Moose. Comrie I'm not sure about. If Mason has serious enough issues he may end up on long term injury reserve but it's hard to say.

We also need to make a decision on Enstrom. I think a 1 year deal is the way to go. See what Niku brings next TC and keep one of them as a depth option and they other makes the lineup. If Niku can't make the team we may even keep Chiarot though my gut tells me we deal him away if Niku proves he's capable.

I'd be happy enough with Niku, Chiarot and a cheap left handed UFA competing for the spot behind Morrissey and Kulikov. If that ends up being Toby so be it. He did do us a solid in the expansion draft there...

 

[Daximus]

On top of all this we are likely looking at losing a pretty solid player down the line to another expansion. This time we will be exposing some damn good options for Seattle.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Enstrom is already gone. Not in either year.
I removed Myers from '20. I think 1 of our 3 RHD has to go. If Trouba signs long term it could be Buff - but then what would we have to complain about? If Trouba does not commit it should be him, IMO.

I don't know how we get rid of Mason. He's having a terrible season and the contract is too big for anyone to want to take a chance on. We would have to pay some team (Ari?) to take him off our hands. I doubt Hutch would agree to sign here again. Maybe if Mason was already gone but he will get other offers, unless he craps out the rest of the season.

Moving Wheeler would ease a lot of cap problems but he is such a huge part of the team and having the best year of his career at 31 YO that we would miss him - a lot. I'm torn on that one. This off season is time for that decision with 1 year still under contract.

Mason could retire. Concussion problems the Jets make him a nice retirement package.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yeah people are starting to impose their Buff biases here. All I'm saying is that it is extremely extremely unlikely he is about to be traded IMO. I'm not even talking about my own opinion. It's how I read what the team will or won't do.

I agree with part of that. He is unlikely to be traded but should be.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

No chance it is between Ehlers and Morrissey. You're talking a winger and a top pairing defenseman who are both very young. Ehlers is signed for 7 years at a very reasonable cap it so he is already part of the solution to any cap pressures. Morrissey is a RFA without arb rights with 4 more years of team control so the leverage and flexibility the Jets hold there is also part of any solution at least over the next few years. The tough decisions will be on the vets, should they stay or should they go.

I agree - but the decisions overlap. When Chevy asks himself whether or not he should bridge Morrissey he has to consider that not bridging him will mean parting ways with Wheeler or Buff. Or some similar set of decisions and consequences. None of these decisions can be made in isolation because they all have wider implications.

Personally, I lean towards moving Buff. That can be done after next July 1. Solves a lot of problems. No bridge for Morrissey, new contract for Wheeler, no bonus problem next year. It does leave a big hole to fill so it would depend somewhat on the return we could get. We would probably have to take cap hit back, or retain some salary.

Then, of course there is the Trouba issue. Can't move Buff if Trouba isn't signed long term, IMO. In that case, move Trouba. Similar set of problems solved. A little different big hole created. Again, the return would be key, obviously.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not at all.

Not necessarily but it becomes an attractive possibility.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Everyone aware that we control Trouba for two more years, including arbitration rights?

Y'all make it sound like there are only three options: a) trade Buff, b) trade Trouba, c) have two RHDs signed for $15M. That's BS.

Just one easy option out is to go to arbitration with Trouba.

Of course that is an option. Where do you see it going?

My feeling is that if Trouba goes through with arb next summer then he will do it again the summer after and go to UFA. It will then be too close and too tempting for him to pass up.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Because he makes a lot more. He's a victim of the math. Plus his contract isn't likely to be worth his play. It really already isn't.

That's highly debatable - we know this for fact because it is being highly debated all the time right here.

If you are correct then we can't trade him without retaining salary. We (that is Jets) don't know anything the other teams don't know.

OTOH, after he plays a big role in winning the SC his value will be through the roof.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Mason could retire. Concussion problems the Jets make him a nice retirement package.

It doesn't work that way. He could go on LTIR, which would give us cap relief.

 

[Daximus]

That's highly debatable - we know this for fact because it is being highly debated all the time right here.

If you are correct then we can't trade him without retaining salary. We (that is Jets) don't know anything the other teams don't know.

OTOH, after he plays a big role in winning the SC his value will be through the roof.

Yeah I'd imagine some form of retention would be required. Though there are always teams hurting for defencemen and Buff being a righty helps. His modified NTC could stick a wrench in those gears though.

 

[Daximus]

It doesn't work that way. He could go on LTIR, which would give us cap relief.

Luckily he's only under contract for one more year after this so next off season he walks.

 

[objectiveposter]

The Jets dont have many terrible contracts in terms of average salary....and yet they will be challenged by the cap. Thats a good sign.
Jets will have to find a sucker to take Mason next year if they are planning to sign Helle to a big deal.
Helle's agent is going to use the allstar game appearance to justify a big raise even if he struggles down the stretch. Would be hard to keep 2 goalies making 4+ million next season

 

[mcpw]

Forwards - 19/20
Scheif - 6.125
Ehlers - 6
Wheeler - 6
Litz - 5.291
Perreault - 4.125
Lowry - 2
Armia - 2
Copp - 2
Tanev - 1
Laine - 7
Connor - 4 (conservative estimate)
Roslovic - .900
Veslainen - .900

= $47.341

Defence - 19/20
Buff - 7.5
Trouba - 6.5
Myers - 5
Morrissey - 5
Kuli - 4.3
Niku - .775
Poolman - 1.5

= 30.575

Goalies
Helle - 5
Backup - 1.5

= 6.5


== 84.416

Really it all depends on how the cap goes up. And how much Laine, Helle, Morrissey, Myers, Wheeler and Connor resign for. That doesn't even account for having to resign Roslovic and Niku the following year. Better hope they both stink the joint up or Buff is on his way out.

Well, now you're looking at 19-20. You're looking at the scenario that you locked up Trouba and Hellebuyck and Laine long term, plus you gave more than two years of term to both Morrissey and Connor coming off their ELC, plus you extended UFA Myers for $5M. You looked at 6 good non-Byfuglien players, and for every single one of those players you were able to choose -- either show him money and term, or give up control (bridge) or walk away -- and you chose to give money + term to each and every single one of them, and it still almost fits under a realistic 19-20 cap ceiling. There are so many options you could take instead of trading Byfuglien this summer... one, of course, is trading Byfuglien next summer, but there are a lot more:
- trade Kulikov
- trade Myers this summer
- walk away from Myers in 2019
- bridge Morrissey
- bridge Connor
- walk away from Wheeler in 2019 (that sounds really unpopular... but how would walking away from Ladd have sounded in January 2015? Things can change, players decline at different speed)
- trade Connor (sounds unpopular again... but Perreault/Laine/Ehlers/Wheeler are fine top6 wingers, and if Vesalainen/Roslovic turn out to be really good and cheap top6 wingers, why not?)
- arbitration contract or equivalent 2-year contract for Trouba who then walks in UFA (he doesn't have to sign long term)
- trade Trouba at some point

I think it is clear that the Jets will have to make a painful decision come summer 2019. Walk away from a good player, trade a good player, or bridge some guys who they actually wanted to lock up long term. And yes, there's a chance that Byfuglien won't be a Jet in 2021. And maybe that would be in the Jets' best interest. But I don't see how trading Byfuglien in 2018 is a necessity in any way, and I believe the org feels the same. That decision can absolutely wait until after the 2019 playoffs.

Due to the cap, no team can keep all their good players forever. But that snippet right here:

That doesn't even account for having to resign Roslovic and Niku the following year. Better hope they both stink the joint up or Buff is on his way out.

I think you just want exactly that... your list of 13 forwards for October 2019 consists of:
- a 2017 Jets draft pick
- a 2016 Jets draft pick
- a 2016 Jets undrafted free agent signing
- two 2015 Jets draft picks
- eight forwards who were part of the Jets' system in February 2015
I get that Chevy hasn't traded a lot, UFA signings are hard and not always ideal, and our drafting especially in the first round is good, but come on. That's a bit extreme.

Things are not black and white.

We currently have 5 wingers on pace for over 57 P/82 (Wheeler 88, Laine 63, Perreault 62, Ehlers 60, Connor 57). I don't think any other team has that luxury. We can only have it at the moment because three of those wingers are on ELCs. To expect that situation to continue forever is probably unrealistic.

 

[Aavco Cup]

The talk is about the cap going forward. Next year we are fine, even with a Trouba signing. It's the year after that everyone is talking about. The future outlook of this team is that Buff will likely need to be gone by the 19/20 season. He's got this season and likely the next to win with the youth. After that his future with this team is in serious doubt.

I disagree with your premise he needs to be gone by 2019/20. I didn't see a salary cap chart for 2019/20 in the OP BTW.

You said that Buff needed to be traded if Trouba was signed. Trouba needs to be signed in a few months.

 

[Daximus]

The Jets dont have many terrible contracts in terms of average salary....and yet they will be challenged by the cap. Thats a good sign.
Jets will have to find a sucker to take Mason next year if they are planning to sign Helle to a big deal.
Helle's agent is going to use the allstar game appearance to justify a big raise even if he struggles down the stretch. Would be hard to keep 2 goalies making 4+ million next season

He will also likely garner some Vezina votes which will help in ngeotiations.

 

[Adam da bomb]

It doesn't work that way. He could go on LTIR, which would give us cap relief.

Why not? I'm not being facetious I am generally curious.

 

[Daximus]

I disagree with your premise he needs to be gone by 2019/20. I didn't see a salary cap chart for 2019/20 in the OP BTW.

You said that Buff needed to be traded if Trouba was signed. Trouba needs to be signed in a few months.

I never said immediately. And I posted a likely cap chart for 19/20.

 

[Daximus]

Well, now you're looking at 19-20. You're looking at the scenario that you locked up Trouba and Hellebuyck and Laine long term, plus you gave more than two years of term to both Morrissey and Connor coming off their ELC, plus you extended UFA Myers for $5M. You looked at 6 good non-Byfuglien players, and for every single one of those players you were able to choose -- either show him money and term, or give up control (bridge) or walk away -- and you chose to give money + term to each and every single one of them, and it still almost fits under a realistic 19-20 cap ceiling. There are so many options you could take instead of trading Byfuglien this summer... one, of course, is trading Byfuglien next summer, but there are a lot more:
- trade Kulikov
- trade Myers this summer
- walk away from Myers in 2019
- bridge Morrissey
- bridge Connor
- walk away from Wheeler in 2019 (that sounds really unpopular... but how would walking away from Ladd have sounded in January 2015? Things can change, players decline at different speed)
- trade Connor (sounds unpopular again... but Perreault/Laine/Ehlers/Wheeler are fine top6 wingers, and if Vesalainen/Roslovic turn out to be really good and cheap top6 wingers, why not?)
- arbitration contract or equivalent 2-year contract for Trouba who then walks in UFA (he doesn't have to sign long term)
- trade Trouba at some point

I think it is clear that the Jets will have to make a painful decision come summer 2019. Walk away from a good player, trade a good player, or bridge some guys who they actually wanted to lock up long term. And yes, there's a chance that Byfuglien won't be a Jet in 2021. And maybe that would be in the Jets' best interest. But I don't see how trading Byfuglien in 2018 is a necessity in any way, and I believe the org feels the same. That decision can absolutely wait until after the 2019 playoffs.

Due to the cap, no team can keep all their good players forever. But that snippet right here:

I think you just want exactly that... your list of 13 forwards for October 2019 consists of:
- a 2017 Jets draft pick
- a 2016 Jets draft pick
- a 2016 Jets undrafted free agent signing
- two 2015 Jets draft picks
- eight forwards who were part of the Jets' system in February 2015
I get that Chevy hasn't traded a lot, UFA signings are hard and not always ideal, and our drafting especially in the first round is good, but come on. That's a bit extreme.

Again in a perfect world we could bridge everyone and be happy but even if we do that and see success those guys will be looking for raises in short order. Lock up your core long term. Keep depth guys on low term/low money deals and keep bringing in players on ELC's. It's unrealistic to think the cap will go up by the max in each of the next two off seasons. You don't think the Jets have planned for this? It's pretty obvious in the modified contracts they gave Buff and Little. Sure it's unlikely all of our guys make the team outright but you plan for it regardless.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Why not? I'm not being facetious I am generally curious.

For starters, why would the player retire? He gets full pay if he does not.

Beyond that there are rules. I can't quote chapter and verse so I will leave it at that rather than misstating them.

Players have, very rarely, retired when they still had contract term remaining but it is extremely rare and always involves some strange quirks in the situation beyond lingering injury.

 

[mcpw]

Again in a perfect world we could bridge everyone and be happy but even if we do that and see success those guys will be looking for raises in short order. Lock up your core long term. Keep depth guys on low term/low money deals and keep bringing in players on ELC's. It's unrealistic to think the cap will go up by the max in each of the next two off seasons. You don't think the Jets have planned for this? It's pretty obvious in the modified contracts they gave Buff and Little. Sure it's unlikely all of our guys make the team outright but you plan for it regardless.

I mean, they did lock up their core long term, it's just that their core includes Byfuglien....
Why does your "core" (from your 19-20 chart) need five >55-point wingers on full value contracts?
Why does your "core" need a five-million 29.5-year-old Myers?
Again, we will have to say goodbye to a good player at some point.

But you wrote this:

Pretty much all of it hinges on Trouba right now. If we trade him then we keep Buff and Poolman replaces Trouba. If we sign Trouba we need to move Buff.

and "we need to move Buff" is just BS. There are a lot of other options (some of which I listed), and he won't be the only old player on the team. Wheeler, Little, Myers, Perreault, they all could decline, they all could get health problems. Remember the poll back in 2015, who should the team walk away from if they can only keep one between Ladd and Buff? Think it was 70% or 75% percent for keeping Ladd. At the 2016 deadline, most around here were happy to move Ladd who played like a glorified checking line forward after his surgery. Things change.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Again in a perfect world we could bridge everyone and be happy but even if we do that and see success those guys will be looking for raises in short order. Lock up your core long term. Keep depth guys on low term/low money deals and keep bringing in players on ELC's. It's unrealistic to think the cap will go up by the max in each of the next two off seasons. You don't think the Jets have planned for this? It's pretty obvious in the modified contracts they gave Buff and Little. Sure it's unlikely all of our guys make the team outright but you plan for it regardless.

Bridge deals can be used to align the contracts of young players with the expiration of contracts of vets as well as anticipating cap increases.

I agree with those who say Morrissey has taken another step and I would lock him up as long as possible, as soon as possible. But there are a lot of moving pieces and bridge deals will have to be used just to juggle new and expiring contracts.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I never said immediately. And I posted a likely cap chart for 19/20.

No this is what you said.

If Trouba is resigned Buff HAS to go.

You didn't specify which season and there were no 19/20 numbers at all posted at that point.

I mean at some point Buff's contract will expire so as long as Trouba is signed for more than 3 years it's inevitable.

My prediction is Buff is still on the roster when the NHL locks out the players in sept 2020.