Salary Cap: Jets approaching cap issues.

[Daximus]

Everyone aware that we control Trouba for two more years, including arbitration rights?

Y'all make it sound like there are only three options: a) trade Buff, b) trade Trouba, c) have two RHDs signed for $15M. That's BS.

Just one easy option out is to go to arbitration with Trouba.

The org and Trouba won't want to hit Arb. If it comes down to keeping Buff or signing a few of our good young depth pieces I really hope the org takes the depth pieces and moves Buff. Bonus points to Chevy if he can do it without retaining. If Trouba wants out then we have no choice but to keep Buff. Hopefully Trouba has warmed up to playing top pairing with Mojo though.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Because he makes a lot more. He's a victim of the math. Plus his contract isn't likely to be worth his play. It really already isn't.

Wel I disagree completely. The Jets do not "have to" trade Buff if the sign Trouba. It's only one option out of many. And it is the least likely of all the options they have IMO.

 

[KingBogo]

Absolutely. When you crunch the numbers it's really the only thing that makes sense either Trouba/Myers/Poolman or Buff/Myers/Poolman is the best route to take for righties. I'd imagine the org is pretty high on Niku as well so he likely gets a shot to take out Toby. I wonder if they offer Toby a one year deal to see what Niku's got?

MoJo - Trouba
Kuli - Myers
Niku - Poolman

Is what I would want. Saves us about $13.35 mil next year with Toby and Buff gone. Plenty of room to resign Helle and all the depth and leaves money long term for Laine's signing.

That would be my ideal as well. Charoit as #7 as he is already signed for next season. In that situation you sign the remaining young core long term and then make cap decisions as they arise.

 

[mcpw]

Because he makes a lot more. He's a victim of the math. Plus his contract isn't likely to be worth his play. It really already isn't.

I crunched the numbers here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/140978153/

$24.8M to sign our seven RFAs plus one more guy.
Trouba $6.5M
Morrissey $5.5M
Hellebuyck $5.5M
Lowry $2M
Armia $2M
Tanev $1M
Poolman $1M
Guy (potentially Petan/Dano/Vesalainen/Appleton/Niku, or a UFA vet) $1M

That would be $24.5M. It could absolutely be possible to sign all of Trouba, Morrissey and Hellebuyck long term without making further moves. Trading Myers or Mason could potentially open up even more space. Byfuglien being an automatic "victim of the math" is just completely wrong.

 

[Daximus]

Wel I disagree completely. The Jets do not "have to" trade Buff if the sign Trouba. It's only one option out of many. And it is the least likely of all the options they have IMO.

Oh for sure it's not the only option. It's just the only good option. If we keep Buff over our young depth guys then we will not win any Stanley Cups I will guarantee you that. We will have to let our depth walk or trade them. That would be a dumb move.

 

[mcpw]

The org and Trouba won't want to hit Arb. If it comes down to keeping Buff or signing a few of our good young depth pieces I really hope the org takes the depth pieces and moves Buff. Bonus points to Chevy if he can do it without retaining. If Trouba wants out then we have no choice but to keep Buff. Hopefully Trouba has warmed up to playing top pairing with Mojo though.

You say the org and Trouba won't want to hit Arb. I say the org won't want to move Buff.

 

[Aavco Cup]

The org and Trouba won't want to hit Arb.

This is true which is why the most likely outcome is that Trouba signs a long term deal prior to the hearing.

The real drama would happen if Trouba does not file for arb. This sets up a potential hold out scenario. Of course the Jets have a window to file for arb themselves if he declines. I have long believed they would never do that since Trouba could then elect a 2 year award. But over time I have come to think maybe the Jets do it anyway and take their chances.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

________________________________________________________

We can't keep all these guys, so I think something like this will happen.

Defense

1) trade Enstrom -- or sign him for $ 1.5 mil ( or let him walk)


2) Buff- trade him (only if Trouba signs) -- big savings - Poolman to fill spot -- if Trouba does not re-sign, then keep Buff, or trade for cheaper replacement.

Goalies

1) Mason- they likely will let him go -- or trade him - go with Helle / Huitch

Forwards

1) Wheeler -( trade him) getting older, and there's plenty of young guys to fill in- if they keep him, they will want a "discounted" contract.

I think this should lessen our salary cap concerns --and I bet 1 or 2 of these guys will be gone next year, or shortly thereafter. These guys are older-- looking at top buc $$ The Jet's will still be a top team if these guys are let go.

Enstrom is already gone. Not in either year.
I removed Myers from '20. I think 1 of our 3 RHD has to go. If Trouba signs long term it could be Buff - but then what would we have to complain about? If Trouba does not commit it should be him, IMO.

I don't know how we get rid of Mason. He's having a terrible season and the contract is too big for anyone to want to take a chance on. We would have to pay some team (Ari?) to take him off our hands. I doubt Hutch would agree to sign here again. Maybe if Mason was already gone but he will get other offers, unless he craps out the rest of the season.

Moving Wheeler would ease a lot of cap problems but he is such a huge part of the team and having the best year of his career at 31 YO that we would miss him - a lot. I'm torn on that one. This off season is time for that decision with 1 year still under contract.

 

[Daximus]

I crunched the numbers here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/140978153/

$24.8M to sign our seven RFAs plus one more guy.
Trouba $6.5M
Morrissey $5.5M
Hellebuyck $5.5M
Lowry $2M
Armia $2M
Tanev $1M
Poolman $1M
Guy (potentially Petan/Dano/Vesalainen/Appleton/Niku, or a UFA vet) $1M

That would be $24.5M. It could absolutely be possible to sign all of Trouba, Morrissey and Hellebuyck long term without making further moves. Trading Myers or Mason could potentially open up even more space. Byfuglien being an automatic "victim of the math" is just completely wrong.

Forwards - 19/20
Scheif - 6.125
Ehlers - 6
Wheeler - 6
Litz - 5.291
Perreault - 4.125
Lowry - 2
Armia - 2
Copp - 2
Tanev - 1
Laine - 7
Connor - 4 (conservative estimate)
Roslovic - .900
Veslainen - .900

= $47.341

Defence - 19/20
Buff - 7.5
Trouba - 6.5
Myers - 5
Morrissey - 5
Kuli - 4.3
Niku - .775
Poolman - 1.5

= 30.575

Goalies
Helle - 5
Backup - 1.5

= 6.5


== 84.416

Really it all depends on how the cap goes up. And how much Laine, Helle, Morrissey, Myers, Wheeler and Connor resign for. That doesn't even account for having to resign Roslovic and Niku the following year. Better hope they both stink the joint up or Buff is on his way out.

 

[Daximus]

You say the org and Trouba won't want to hit Arb. I say the org won't want to move Buff.

Maybe they don't. But it would be a mistake if they didn't.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Oh for sure it's not the only option. It's just the only good option. If we keep Buff over our young depth guys then we will not win any Stanley Cups I will guarantee you that. We will have to let our depth walk or trade them. That would be a dumb move.

I think keeping Buff is a very good option and I don't think the Jets have any intention of trading him despite what you think.

 

[Daximus]

That would be my ideal as well. Charoit as #7 as he is already signed for next season. In that situation you sign the remaining young core long term and then make cap decisions as they arise.

Yeah and Niku likely replaces Chiarot as they let him walk.

 

[Daximus]

I think keeping Buff is a very good option and I don't think the Jets have any intention of trading him despite what you think.

I wish we could keep all of our players to and in a perfect world we can but this exercise is a reality check for everyone. Keeping Buff likely means we move younger, cost controlled guys to do so. Unless somehow the cap magically increases by $15 mil over the next 2 years. We've seen what happens to teams when you elect for aging 33yo+ vets over young cost controlled assets.

 

[Jet]

Hopefully we get a cap rise of at least $80. All I know is Buff makes way to much for this team and his role going forward.

Hey if it's only $80 I'll give it to the team

Seriously though, you hit the nail on the head - I'd go as far as to say that pair: Toby and Buff could go and would help us immensely.

I like Enstrom but I feel like we're at the point where we could find someone to do his job, cheaper.

 

[KingBogo]

I think keeping Buff is a very good option and I don't think the Jets have any intention of trading him despite what you think.

I do agree with Dax is the only way Buff finishes out his contract in Winnipeg is if enough of the kids take bridge deals to afford him. But we can't do that with Laine IMO, and I really don't want to see it with Morrissey. Maybe Connor and then Roslovic might be enough if the cap keeps going up.

 

[LowLefty]

I think keeping Buff is a very good option and I don't think the Jets have any intention of trading him despite what you think.

You're probably right in that they will keep him - but they shouldn't. At 7.5M and our highest paid Dman, he's not worth it.
I like some of what he brings on some nights but he's slowing down, inconsistent and unreliable in making good defensive decisions - all bad when considering what that brings leading up to and in the playoffs (assuming).
The crowd is pretty well split on this guy - I'm in the bad buff camp.

 

[Daximus]

Hey if it's only $80 I'll give it to the team

Seriously though, you hit the nail on the head - I'd go as far as to say that pair: Toby and Buff could go and would help us immensely.

I like Enstrom but I feel like we're at the point where we could find someone to do his job, cheaper.

I think if we can sign Enstrom to one year deal and see what Niku does in next years TC that is they way to go. If Niku can show he's ready for the show then Enstrom becomes a depth option for next year and we let him walk after that. Buff should be the target for a trade. But if Trouba goes then we really have no choice but to keep Buff. So much of this hinges on Trouba's future here. Hendricks, Matthias, Dano, Lemieux and Petan's futures are all up in the air as well. Really it will come down to Tanev or them. As they would all need wiavers by 19/20 season. Stanley is also a bit of a wildcard for a depth option to replace Enstrom as well.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I wish we could keep all of our players to and in a perfect world we can but this exercise is a reality check for everyone. Keeping Buff likely means we move younger, cost controlled guys to do so. Unless somehow the cap magically increases by $15 mil over the next 2 years. We've seen what happens to teams when you elect for aging 33yo+ vets over young cost controlled assets.

That's the argument you make. The argument I make is right now this offseason, the Jets have no intention of trading Buff. I have this opinion based on the Chevy Athletic Q & A article they published in the fall. The player and the team made a commitment to each other. The Jets will give Buff the opportunity to win with the youth.

So if they aren't trading Buff they will deal with their cap next year in ways other than you are suggesting.

 

[Aavco Cup]

You're probably right in that they will keep him - but they shouldn't. At 7.5M and our highest paid Dman, he's not worth it.
I like some of what he brings on some nights but he's slowing down, inconsistent and unreliable in making good defensive decisions - all bad when considering what that brings leading up to and in the playoffs (assuming).
The crowd is pretty well split on this guy - I'm in the bad buff camp.

Yeah people are starting to impose their Buff biases here. All I'm saying is that it is extremely extremely unlikely he is about to be traded IMO. I'm not even talking about my own opinion. It's how I read what the team will or won't do.

 

[Daximus]

That's the argument you make. The argument I make is right now this offseason, the Jets have no intention of trading Buff. I have this opinion based on the Chevy Athletic Q & A article they published in the fall. The player and the team made a commitment to each other. The Jets will give Buff the opportunity to win with the youth.

So if they aren't trading Buff they will deal with their cap next year in ways other than you are suggesting.

And we don't need to THIS off season. We are lined up to keep everyone. Except likely Matthias. And we have to make some decisions about Petan, Dano and Tanev. But outside of that we can keep Buff for now. It's the off season after that where things get very tight and having Buff's 7.5 mil, to retain what in my opinion is far more crucial talent for our roster, will be beneficial. Regardless of if the org wants to keep Buff or not they will need to make a very tough decision leading up to the 19/20 season.

 

[Daximus]

Yeah people are starting to impose their Buff biases here. All I'm saying is that it is extremely extremely unlikely he is about to be traded IMO. I'm not even talking about my own opinion. It's how I read what the team will or won't do.

Whether it's a bias or not it's a decision that needs to be made. Is Buff worth more than our depth forwards by the time he's 34 years old?

 

[Aavco Cup]

And we don't need to THIS off season. We are lined up to keep everyone. Except likely Matthias. And we have to make some decisions about Petan, Dano and Tanev. But outside of that we can keep Buff for now. It's the off season after that where things get very tight and having Buff's 7.5 mil, to retain what in my opinion is far more crucial talent for our roster, will be beneficial. Regardless of if the org wants to keep Buff or not they will need to make a very tough decision leading up to the 19/20 season.

This thread is talking about our 2018/19 cap issues or did I miss something?

Certainly over time the likelihood of a Buff trade goes up. He will have been given a chance to win with the youth. I was only talking about your suggestion that if Trouba gets signed the Jets must trade Buff.

 

[Flair Hay]

A lot of this will also depend on post-season success. If we win a cup in the next two years, we are ****ed.

Hawks ended up having trade a ton but they caused a lot of it themselves. Accidentally missing the qualifying offers was a big part if it. Another was signing Campbell and Hossa as a luxury. Third was winning the Cup that put Toews and Kane salaries up even more.

But the first two were a lot less important when they won the Cup. They ended up winning three. But all I'm ever asking for in my lifetime is one...

 

[Daximus]

This thread is talking about our 2018/19 cap issues or did I miss something?

Certainly over time the likelihood of a Buff trade goes up. He will have been given a chance to win with the youth. I was only talking about your suggestion that if Trouba gets signed the Jets must trade Buff.

The talk is about the cap going forward. Next year we are fine, even with a Trouba signing. It's the year after that everyone is talking about. The future outlook of this team is that Buff will likely need to be gone by the 19/20 season. He's got this season and likely the next to win with the youth. After that his future with this team is in serious doubt.

 

[Daximus]

Hawks ended up having trade a ton but they caused a lot of it themselves. Accidentally missing the qualifying offers was a big part if it. Another was signing Campbell and Hossa as a luxury. Third was winning the Cup that put Toews and Kane salaries up even more.

But the first two were a lot less important when they won the Cup. They ended up winning three. But all I'm ever asking for in my lifetime is one...

We will have a pretty solid season and a half with Buff yet still. And most of our roster in tact. We will however need to make a decision on Hendricks, Matthias, Tanev, Petan, De Leo, Comrie and Dano this off season though. I'm pretty sure De Leo will pass through waivers though so it's likely we resign him and keep him with the Moose. Comrie I'm not sure about. If Mason has serious enough issues he may end up on long term injury reserve but it's hard to say.

We also need to make a decision on Enstrom. I think a 1 year deal is the way to go. See what Niku brings next TC and keep one of them as a depth option and they other makes the lineup. If Niku can't make the team we may even keep Chiarot though my gut tells me we deal him away if Niku proves he's capable.