Prospect Info: Jan Mysak

[BaseballCoach]

This is the part I don't agree with...

Good evaluation is about NHL contributions & impact.

Lekhonen just delivered cup winning "top 6" impact despite not being considered as a "potential top 6" pretty much since his draft year.

High floor/low ceiling assets are frequently under valued, yet every year, cup winning teams have several key contributors of that nature who play significant roles in playoff success.

Of course, you need elite talent first & foremost. But you aren't getting that talent by trading away assets like Mysak... My point remains that he fits the profile of the type of depth prospect worth prioritizing as far as retaining short of a large overpayment, the type of which his relatively low ceiling potential rarely attracts

It's not that I disagree with you that much in principle, but my evaluation of Lehkonen versus Mysak is miles apart from yours. I personally DID see Lehkonen as 2nd line potential after his Swedish league playoff performance, and said so at the time, whereas I see Mysak as 4th line potential due to less than average skating.

Yes absolutely, cup winners and strong contenders need good 4th liners but they can be found more easily than your top 6-8 forwards.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

This is the part I don't agree with...

Good evaluation is about NHL contributions & impact.

Lekhonen just delivered cup winning "top 6" impact despite not being considered as a "potential top 6" pretty much since his draft year.

High floor/low ceiling assets are frequently under valued, yet every year, cup winning teams have several key contributors of that nature who play significant roles in playoff success.

Of course, you need elite talent first & foremost. But you aren't getting that talent by trading away assets like Mysak... My point remains that he fits the profile of the type of depth prospect worth prioritizing as far as retaining short of a large overpayment, the type of which his relatively low ceiling potential rarely attracts

It's not that I disagree with you that much in principle, but my evaluation of Lehkonen versus Mysak is miles apart from yours. I personally DID see Lehkonen as 2nd line potential after his Swedish league playoff performance, and said so at the time, whereas I see Mysak as 4th line potential due to less than average skating.

Yes absolutely, cup winners and strong contenders need good 4th liners but they can be found more easily than your top 6-8 forwards.

I think you're both making amazing points, and I think maybe the middle ground is not to trade Mysak now, but let him play a few more seasons in the AHL to see what the Habs have. What do you think?

BC I totally agree the Habs will have to funnel their prospects at some point, but Mysak still has 3 years of waiver exemption right? I personally would prefer a funneling approach where the decision is made once the prospects have had time to play more and so the Habs cam know more (Poehling being a good example here). Problem with trading them before that is you might miss out on some gems, like it sounds like MT is saying about Mysak.

What do you guys think? The Habs see how Mysak transitions to the pro game in the AHL and revisit whether he is the guy to trade in a couple of years?

 

[BaseballCoach]

I think you're both making amazing points, and I think maybe the middle ground is not to trade Mysak now, but let him play a few more seasons in the AHL to see what the Habs have. What do you think?

BC I totally agree the Habs will have to funnel their prospects at some point, but Mysak still has 3 years of waiver exemption right? I personally would prefer a funneling approach where the decision is made once the prospects have had time to play more and so the Habs cam know more (Poehling being a good example here). Problem with trading them before that is you might miss out on some gems, like it sounds like MT is saying about Mysak.

What do you guys think? The Habs see how Mysak transitions to the pro game in the AHL and revisit whether he is the guy to trade in a couple of years?

Yes, but if for example Winnipeg wants him to cement a Dubois deal I otherwise find acceptable, I'm not vetoing the trade, whereas for Farrel, Hutson, Roy and the top 30s, I would want to discuss further in order to switch the prospect.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Yes, but if Winnipeg wants him to cement a Dubois deal I otherwise find acceptable, I'm not vetoing the trade.

Right. Yeah probably not. But teams tend to want your top guys.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Right. Yeah probably not. But teams tend to want your top guys.

True, but if someone thinks Mysak is the next Lehkonen, I'm not going to discourage him.

 

[Et le But]

I like Mysak as a prospect, there's a lot to work with here.

Can he be a trade asset? Sure, but the reality is he probably has limited trade value compared to some of our other prospects. It's possible another team really likes him as part of a larger deal but I don't think he has much value right now...think he's one whose value is as likely as it is to go up as it is for him to fall out of the system completely.

 

[Mrb1p]

This is the part I don't agree with...

Good evaluation is about NHL contributions & impact.

Lekhonen just delivered cup winning "top 6" impact despite not being considered as a "potential top 6" pretty much since his draft year.

High floor/low ceiling assets are frequently under valued, yet every year, cup winning teams have several key contributors of that nature who play significant roles in playoff success.

Of course, you need elite talent first & foremost. But you aren't getting that talent by trading away assets like Mysak... My point remains that he fits the profile of the type of depth prospect worth prioritizing as far as retaining short of a large overpayment, the type of which his relatively low ceiling potential rarely attracts

I dont disagree and support everything youre saying but Lekhonen was 100% seen as a potential top 6 player up until his sophomore year. He was breaking offensive records in sweden in his D+2.

 

[dcyhabs]

I dont disagree and support everything youre saying but Lekhonen was 100% seen as a potential top 6 player up until his sophomore year. He was breaking offensive records in sweden in his D+2.

Looked fine with Colorado, too.

Most players on the habs would look good with a few play drivers. Lots of guys who can take advantage of extra space, not many who make space. Dach and Slaf could potentially improve the team while putting up less than 30 points each if they can occupy some defenders.

 

[Team_Spirit]

“I played against Shane Wright this year in the OHL, and for me, I really like Slafkovský more because he is stronger; he is big. I watched him on videos and on games on the TV and he looks really mature and big, so I kind of expected maybe they will pick Slafkovský over Wright, but then they did it.”

He knew

 

[Miller Time]

I dont disagree and support everything youre saying but Lekhonen was 100% seen as a potential top 6 player up until his sophomore year. He was breaking offensive records in sweden in his D+2.

sure, but as is Mysak... in fact was reading a prospect profile on him from this winter that specifically referenced both the top-6 potential and similarity to lekhonen as a prospect...

the similarities between the two are quite shocking actually... similar styles of play and intangible qualities... similar hockey iq, work ethic and broad base of skills without particular "elite" attributes... both were among the youngest of their respective draft years...

by their respective 2nd full season post draft, both had been "surpassed" in the forward prospect depth chart by a number of flashier, higher perceived ceiling players.

by 2015-16, habs prospect pool featured guys like Reway, Hudon, Scherbak, McCarron, Carr, Andrighetto all being comfortably listed ahead of Lekhy, and viewed as better top-6 NHL prospects.

By 2022-23, Mysak finds himself sitting behind the likes of Roy, Kidney, Slaf, Heineman, Farrell, Mesar, Beck? et.

will be interesting to see how it all plays out over the next 3-5 years. If there is one thing that's for sure, it's that the general board consensus on prospect rankings and future NHL potential gets far more wrong than right

 

[Miller Time]

I think you're both making amazing points, and I think maybe the middle ground is not to trade Mysak now, but let him play a few more seasons in the AHL to see what the Habs have. What do you think?

BC I totally agree the Habs will have to funnel their prospects at some point, but Mysak still has 3 years of waiver exemption right? I personally would prefer a funneling approach where the decision is made once the prospects have had time to play more and so the Habs cam know more (Poehling being a good example here). Problem with trading them before that is you might miss out on some gems, like it sounds like MT is saying about Mysak.

What do you guys think? The Habs see how Mysak transitions to the pro game in the AHL and revisit whether he is the guy to trade in a couple of years?

indeed... and I don't think BC was specifically suggesting they absolutely "should" trade mysak, nor was i suggesting that we absolutely "shouldn't" trade him, it's more a question of how highly he should be valued as a prospect to develop/trade asset.

my point is that if he does get moved, it should only be if the other team values him highly and is willing to pay a premium (i.e value greater than what he was drafted at - mid-2nd round).... what we've seen from him since his draft, to me, suggests he could be an underrated gem, like Lekhonen, and we'd likely do far better keeping him in the pipeline/developing him, than moving him at equal/lesser value than we drafted him at.

ultimately, he's an asset and like all of the players in the system, available for the right price or right fit (BC and I just appear to disagree on how high that price should be)

 

[Mrb1p]

sure, but as is Mysak... in fact was reading a prospect profile on him from this winter that specifically referenced both the top-6 potential and similarity to lekhonen as a prospect...

the similarities between the two are quite shocking actually... similar styles of play and intangible qualities... similar hockey iq, work ethic and broad base of skills without particular "elite" attributes... both were among the youngest of their respective draft years...

by their respective 2nd full season post draft, both had been "surpassed" in the forward prospect depth chart by a number of flashier, higher perceived ceiling players.

by 2015-16, habs prospect pool featured guys like Reway, Hudon, Scherbak, McCarron, Carr, Andrighetto all being comfortably listed ahead of Lekhy, and viewed as better top-6 NHL prospects.

By 2022-23, Mysak finds himself sitting behind the likes of Roy, Kidney, Slaf, Heineman, Farrell, Mesar, Beck? et.

will be interesting to see how it all plays out over the next 3-5 years. If there is one thing that's for sure, it's that the general board consensus on prospect rankings and future NHL potential gets far more wrong than right

The difference is Mysak slowed down production wise, while lekhonen was gaining speed. Lekhs D+3 AND D+4 had him track for a top 6 spot 100%. Jan actually slowed down production wise in his d+2, but Im ready to blame covid for that.

I like Mysak a lot, think he's a pretty good bet to be a 3rd liner at this point.

 

[Adam Michaels]

“I played against Shane Wright this year in the OHL, and for me, I really like Slafkovský more because he is stronger; he is big. I watched him on videos and on games on the TV and he looks really mature and big, so I kind of expected maybe they will pick Slafkovský over Wright, but then they did it.”

He knew

Remember when Hughes said on the Wednesday before the draft that they started to lean more towards Slaf? It was Mysak who shot them a call that morning and shared that info.

With all the due diligence Habs did for this pick, it wouldn't surprise me if they reached out to Mysak to get a sense of what it was like playing against him, as well as Xhekaj.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

The difference is Mysak slowed down production wise, while lekhonen was gaining speed. Lekhs D+3 AND D+4 had him track for a top 6 spot 100%. Jan actually slowed down production wise in his d+2, but Im ready to blame covid for that.

I like Mysak a lot, think he's a pretty good bet to be a 3rd liner at this point.

Lehkonen's production slowed down as well in his d+1 and d+2 year.
His d+1 was worse than his draft year production, and his d+2 year was average at best.
Lehkonen exploded in his d+3 year, which is next season for Mysak.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

indeed... and I don't think BC was specifically suggesting they absolutely "should" trade mysak, nor was i suggesting that we absolutely "shouldn't" trade him, it's more a question of how highly he should be valued as a prospect to develop/trade asset.

my point is that if he does get moved, it should only be if the other team values him highly and is willing to pay a premium (i.e value greater than what he was drafted at - mid-2nd round).... what we've seen from him since his draft, to me, suggests he could be an underrated gem, like Lekhonen, and we'd likely do far better keeping him in the pipeline/developing him, than moving him at equal/lesser value than we drafted him at.

ultimately, he's an asset and like all of the players in the system, available for the right price or right fit (BC and I just appear to disagree on how high that price should be)

Yeah, I definitely hope the Habs make sure to polish any gems themselves, because while they do have good depth, ultimately the key moving forward will be evaluating that depth and finding those gems, if they are there.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Yeah, I definitely hope the Habs make sure to polish any gems themselves, because while they do have good depth, ultimately the key moving forward will be evaluating that depth and finding those gems, if they are there.

Mysak does not have the hands to make up for a deficient skating ability. He may make the NHL as a replacement levelplayer, not as a gem.

My take of course.

 

[Miller Time]

The difference is Mysak slowed down production wise, while lekhonen was gaining speed. Lekhs D+3 AND D+4 had him track for a top 6 spot 100%. Jan actually slowed down production wise in his d+2, but Im ready to blame covid for that.

I like Mysak a lot, think he's a pretty good bet to be a 3rd liner at this point.

Context...
In the 2 yrs post draft, Mysak moved to north america, dealt with covid situation as you point out, and wrapped up that span playing a leading role on a memorial cup finals bound team.

Yes, the offensive output was low, but the usage & contribution was certainly was not...

THat he's looking like a good bet to be a 3rd liner at this point, is kinda the point. Like Lek, that floor is looking more and more firm as we see more of the player, his versatility and his clutch/compete factor. After that, who knows... I'd suspect that, like Lek, if he ends up playing a "top 6" role, it wont be till his late 20's, and as a strong compliment piece rather than an elite performer

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Lehkonen's production slowed down as well in his d+1 and d+2 year.
His d+1 was worse than his draft year production, and his d+2 year was average at best.
Lehkonen exploded in his d+3 year, which is next season for Mysak.

Lehkonen was playing against men whereas Mysak is playing against boys that he has an increasing age/experience advantage on yet doesn't seem to have improved much from his 22 game stint two seasons ago. Of course stats rarely tell the whole story but he looks alot more like a 4th liner than the potential middle 6 asset that many had projected for him.

His biggest issue is his skating which has seen a little improvement but is not where it needs to be if he intends on becoming a meaningful NHL player. This is the one area where Lehkonen consistently made strides year after year.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Context...
In the 2 yrs post draft, Mysak moved to north america, dealt with covid situation as you point out, and wrapped up that span playing a leading role on a memorial cup finals bound team.

Yes, the offensive output was low, but the usage & contribution was certainly was not...

THat he's looking like a good bet to be a 3rd liner at this point, is kinda the point. Like Lek, that floor is looking more and more firm as we see more of the player, his versatility and his clutch/compete factor. After that, who knows... I'd suspect that, like Lek, if he ends up playing a "top 6" role, it wont be till his late 20's, and as a strong compliment piece rather than an elite performer

Definitely I like prospects who quickly become 3rd liners because there are lots of cases where players like that move up the lineup at the NHL level - kind of like Danault did. But there are lots of such cases around the league.

 

[Miller Time]

Definitely I like prospects who quickly become 3rd liners because there are lots of cases where players like that move up the lineup at the NHL level - kind of like Danault did. But there are lots of such cases around the league.

Yup... And the common qualities those players have are high hockey iq, work ethic and versatility.

The path to NHL regular for most players looks nothing like the blue-chip instant impact curve most fans tend to expect before pidheonholing players based on where they are at in the moment...

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Mysak does not have the hands to make up for a deficient skating ability. He may make the NHL as a replacement levelplayer, not as a gem.

My take of course.

I'm not sure about who will reach where specifically, but things do usually get clearer over time...

Yup... And the common qualities those players have are high hockey iq, work ethic and versatility.

The path to NHL regular for most players looks nothing like the blue-chip instant impact curve most fans tend to expect before pidheonholing players based on where they are at in the moment...

Definitely 3 big qualities. I think work ethic and coachability are ones that are often underrated. They seem to help so many players exceed expectations.

 

[KevSkillz4]

If a prospect can replace Lehkonen, I think it's Mysak.

He play very similar game to Lehkonen and sometimes Mysak have flash in offensive zone like Tatar.

Can't wait to see him in AHL, I like this prospect since his draft day. I still believe that it's a great pick by Habs at 48th overall in 2020 draft.

 

[26Mats]

If a prospect can replace Lehkonen, I think it's Mysak.

He play very similar game to Lehkonen and sometimes Mysak have flash in offensive zone like Tatar.

Can't wait to see him in AHL, I like this prospect since his draft day. I still believe that it's a great pick by Habs at 48th overall in 2020 draft.

Word is he'll have to get faster.

 

[KevSkillz4]

Word is he'll have to get faster.

Yeah agree on that. He can easily work on that, it's more easy to work on his speed than hockey IQ, offensive instinct. Mysak have good offensive instinct, defensive instinct and hockey IQ. He got all thing to become a NHL player. Just need to work on his speed and he is going to be ready in 2 years. (2 full season AHL will be a good thing for him).

 

[26Mats]

Yeah agree on that. He can easily work on that, it's more easy to work on his speed than hockey IQ, offensive instinct. Mysak have good offensive instinct, defensive instinct and hockey IQ. He got all thing to become a NHL player. Just need to work on his speed and he is going to be ready in 2 years. (2 full season AHL will be a good thing for him).

Some players can only get so fast. Otherwise no one would be fast.