Proposal: James VanRiemsdyk for Mikhail Sergachev

[VoluntaryDom]

I'm a fan of both players and think the original offer is fair, not sure if either team would want it though. With how people are undervaluing JVR I'm surprised there hasn't been a De la Rose for JVR offer. These people are hating on a 1st line power winger.

 

[Randy Randerson]

exactly, in fact the whole expansion draft thing makes players like jvr with an additional year left rentals.

i change my offer to a 2017 1st , b prospect and dd. Bergevin would prob manage to wait until the deadline and only give up 2cnd and b prospect though lol

leafs are way better off moving him as a rental this year so they can protect other players, if they dont he either takes up a slot or they lose him for nothing.

Our expansion draft situation is perfect, our motivations for dealing JVR would be strictly what we're getting in return not needing to clear an exemption spot. The most attractive player that we would expose in our forward group right now is probably Kerby Rychel, Loov or Marincin in the D group and Enroth/Bibeau/Sparks in the G group - nothing that we can't part with

JVR is a real deal 1st line winger who we have room to re-sign, he'd be a definite re-sign if he was 2 years younger and is still a definite candidate for that. He's only expendable to us because of our prospect wing depth, he's not someone we need rid of

Those kinds of offers without the Desharnais contract will be available outside of the division next year, we'd just do that instead likely

 

[HockeyFan87]

At this point, I seriously don't even know why this thread keeps going on.

It's like leafs fan keep beating a dead horse arguing about why dealing Sergachev for Van Riemsdyk is the kind of deal Montreal has to look for to push them in the legitimate Stanley Cup contender status. Which is so awfully far from the truth. The value is CLEARLY not there for Montreal for many reasons as explained in the last 6 or so pages.

So, why does this thread keeps going on while every single Hab fan in this thread says the deal is horrible for Montreal?

 

[sansabri]

I'm a fan of both players and think the original offer is fair, not sure if either team would want it though. With how people are undervaluing JVR I'm surprised there hasn't been a De la Rose for JVR offer. These people are hating on a 1st line power winger.

Lol.

 

[smirob]

At this point, I seriously don't even know why this thread keeps going on.

It's like leafs fan keep beating a dead horse arguing about why dealing Sergachev for Van Riemsdyk is the kind of deal Montreal has to look for to push them in the legitimate Stanley Cup contender status. Which is so awfully far from the truth. The value is CLEARLY not there for Montreal for many reasons as explained in the last 6 or so pages.

So, why does this thread keeps going on while every single Hab fan in this thread says the deal is horrible for Montreal?

"Because the Habs only have 2 years to win the cup"
"Because the Habs can't get an equally effective winger for cheaper"
"Because Sergachev wont help the Habs win the cup this year"
"Because, c'mon guys, just do this"
"Because Price will suck in 2 years and all of the habs best players are 40 years old"

 

[Habs Halifax]

If your the Habs and are desperate, then yeah go for this trade. Otherwise, it's very stupid to trade a top 10 pick (in a very deep draft) for a guy who is UFA after next season. More like Sergachev for JVR + 1st round pick. But JVR does not address 2nd line center or top 2D or Top 4D. Why make this trade if your the Habs?

Leafs will probably get a 2nd round pick (maybe late 1st round pick) if they decide to keep JVR and trade him at next years trade deadline. That's the return for a guy like JVR with the contract he has left.

 

[Gary Nylund]

At this point, I seriously don't even know why this thread keeps going on.

It's like leafs fan keep beating a dead horse arguing about why dealing Sergachev for Van Riemsdyk is the kind of deal Montreal has to look for to push them in the legitimate Stanley Cup contender status. Which is so awfully far from the truth. The value is CLEARLY not there for Montreal for many reasons as explained in the last 6 or so pages.

So, why does this thread keeps going on while every single Hab fan in this thread says the deal is horrible for Montreal?

From what I've seen, the Leaf fans posting here are pretty much unanimous in saying they understand that trading Sergachev for JVR is not the move you need to make so not sure what your upset about. Not because the value is way off (it's not), but because JVR isn't the kind of help you need most.

As far as it being the "kind of deal" you guys should be looking to make, give your head a shake. Your cup window is open now, it won't be open for long. That's a textbook scenario when you would want to trade some future to help you win now. Unless of course you suscribe to the "we have enough cup memories" school of thought so eloquently presented earlier in which case, sure whatever.

 

[sansabri]

From what I've seen, the Leaf fans posting here are pretty much unanimous in saying they understand that trading Sergachev for JVR is not the move you need to make so not sure what your upset about. Not because the value is way off (it's not), but because JVR isn't the kind of help you need most.

As far as it being the "kind of deal" you guys should be looking to make, give your head a shake. Your cup window is open now, it won't be open for long. That's a textbook scenario when you would want to trade some future to help you win now. Unless of course you suscribe to the "we have enough cup memories" school of thought so eloquently presented earlier in which case, sure whatever.

How long you figure it's open, exactly?

 

[Randy Randerson]

If your the Habs and are desperate, then yeah go for this trade. Otherwise, it's very stupid to trade a top 10 pick (in a very deep draft) for a guy who is UFA after next season. More like Sergachev for JVR + 1st round pick. But JVR does not address 2nd line center or top 2D or Top 4D. Why make this trade if your the Habs?

Leafs will probably get a 2nd round pick (maybe late 1st round pick) if they decide to keep JVR and trade him at next years trade deadline. That's the return for a guy like JVR with the contract he has left.

Fair to say that JVR isn't a likely target for the Habs because he doesn't fill a need, but, in terms of Value:

the Leafs 1st round pick is likely to be in the same range that Sergachev was taken, maybe worse...maybe better. As of today the Leafs are in 21st OA, so right on the 9thOA button odds wise. So essentially, JVR is worth the difference in draft strengths of the same pick?

precedent for guys like JVR is 1st+good prospect as a TDL rental for 1 playoff run (a few months of service), more with a longer contract (which JVR has). You are underrating the market value for JVR, and likely of comparable players who you might want to rent this year

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm a fan of both players and think the original offer is fair, not sure if either team would want it though. With how people are undervaluing JVR I'm surprised there hasn't been a De la Rose for JVR offer. These people are hating on a 1st line power winger.

It's not about the player JVR. It's about the contract left. JVR is a 20-30 goal scorer and a pretty good LW option. However, trading a #9 overall pick in a very deep draft for a rental is very dumb! And Yes I realize JVR has one more year after this year.

Fair? This is not a fair deal when factoring everything. It's like offering the Habs 1st round pick this year for Mitch Marner. That's fair right because they are both 1st round picks? Right? What a joke!

 

[Randy Randerson]

It's not about the player JVR. It's about the contract left. JVR is a 20-30 goal scorer and a pretty good LW option. However, trading a #9 overall pick in a very deep draft for a rental is very dumb! And Yes I realize JVR has one more year after this year.

Fair? This is not a fair deal when factoring everything. It's like offering the Habs 1st round pick this year for Mitch Marner. That's fair right because they are both 1st round picks? Right? What a joke!

30 goal scorer for his entire leafs career, not 20 (250+ games)

How does offering a 1st line LW for a 9th overall pick equivalent (in a strong, but not that strong of a draft - weaker than the previous year, for example) compare to offering a 20-30 pick for a former 4th overall (in the strongest draft in a decade) who's already performing like a 1st line player as a teenager in the NHL?

I don't understand the comparison

If you wanted to say it's like offering Max Pacioretty for Mitch Marner last year (before he was in the league and performing at a high level rendering a trade of this type a lateral move currently with massive downside in the long run), that would be closer. With the the disclaimer that the team's situation is different - Habs could contend this year, the Leafs were bottoming out last year, so looking for a 1st line winger wouldn't have made sense

 

[sheed36]

I'm a fan of both players and think the original offer is fair, not sure if either team would want it though. With how people are undervaluing JVR I'm surprised there hasn't been a De la Rose for JVR offer. These people are hating on a 1st line power winger.

It would be probably be more fair if the Habs biggest need were another top 6 winger. The Habs fans replying in this thread are probably undervaluing JVR simply because another top 6 winger isn't the Habs biggest need which has been pointed out numerous times..

They just don't want to trade the teams best prospect for something which isn't an absolute need plus also there's the risk of losing JVR after less than 2 seasons. We see Sergachev as Markov's replacement in the near future so he fits long term.

JVR would have more value to other teams looking for another top 6 winger than the Habs who's bigger need is a top 6 center and top 4 dman IMO.

JVR is a very good player but not someone I see the Habs paying the price for since there's more pressing needs other than another top 6 winger.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Fair to say that JVR isn't a likely target for the Habs because he doesn't fill a need, but, in terms of Value:

the Leafs 1st round pick is likely to be in the same range that Sergachev was taken, maybe worse...maybe better. As of today the Leafs are in 21st OA, so right on the 9thOA button odds wise. So essentially, JVR is worth the difference in draft strengths of the same pick?

precedent for guys like JVR is 1st+good prospect as a TDL rental for 1 playoff run (a few months of service), more with a longer contract (which JVR has). You are underrating the market value for JVR, and likely of comparable players who you might want to rent this year

Any team that has traded a 1st round pick tends to be a later 1st round pick due to the teams being in playoff contention. There is a big difference between a top 10 pick and a later 1st round pick. The probability of drafting a future impact player in the top 10 is very high compared to a later 1st round pick.

Plus, your not factoring in that last season was a very deep draft from 1-15 (very deep!) Sergachev is probably a top 5 pick in most other draft years!

If JVR was actually worth what you say he is, the Leafs would of pulled the trigger on any trade you are trying to make. JVR will recoup assets for the Leafs but your not getting a guy like Sergachev. Keep dreaming!

 

[Habs Halifax]

30 goal scorer for his entire leafs career, not 20 (250+ games)

How does offering a 1st line LW for a 9th overall pick equivalent (in a strong, but not that strong of a draft - weaker than the previous year, for example) compare to offering a 20-30 pick for a former 4th overall (in the strongest draft in a decade) who's already performing like a 1st line player as a teenager in the NHL?

I don't understand the comparison

If you wanted to say it's like offering Max Pacioretty for Mitch Marner last year (before he was in the league and performing at a high level rendering a trade of this type a lateral move currently with massive downside in the long run), that would be closer. With the the disclaimer that the team's situation is different - Habs could contend this year, the Leafs were bottoming out last year, so looking for a 1st line winger wouldn't have made sense

I read this and then realized how irrational you are. Entire career? He scored 30 goals exactly in one year (total of 7 seasons so far) And has been injury prone in many other seasons. If you were more rational, I would debate with you but now your searching for info and claiming them as facts. Very silly!

 

[Habs Halifax]

It would be probably be more fair if the Habs biggest need were another top 6 winger. The Habs fans replying in this thread are probably undervaluing JVR simply because another top 6 winger isn't the Habs biggest need which has been pointed out numerous times..

They just don't want to trade the teams best prospect for something which isn't an absolute need plus also there's the risk of losing JVR after less than 2 seasons. We see Sergachev as Markov's replacement in the near future so he fits long term.

JVR would have more value to other teams looking for another top 6 winger than the Habs who's bigger need is a top 6 center and top 4 dman IMO.

JVR is a very good player but not someone I see the Habs paying the price for since there's more pressing needs other than another top 6 winger.

JVR for a 1st round pick (mid to late round) and Hudon would be a fair package (or debatable either way). Trading a elite talent like Sergachev for a rental is STUPID! He's a #9 overall pick in a very deep draft. In any other draft year, he's a top 5 pick!

 

[Randy Randerson]

Any team that has traded a 1st round pick tends to be a later 1st round pick due to the teams being in playoff contention. There is a big difference between a top 10 pick and a later 1st round pick. The probability of drafting a future impact player in the top 10 is very high compared to a later 1st round pick.

Plus, your not factoring in that last season was a very deep draft from 1-15 (very deep!) Sergachev is probably a top 5 pick in most other draft years!

If JVR was actually worth what you say he is, the Leafs would of pulled the trigger on any trade you are trying to make. JVR will recoup assets for the Leafs but your not getting a guy like Sergachev. Keep dreaming!

Sergachev might be a top 5 player in a weak year, in a normal year maybe a spot or two better. 2016 was a good draft, not a great one like 2015

the 3 best comparable trades I've seen in the last few years: Lucic & Ladd as TDL rentals and Bobby Ryan as a 2 year player.
Lucic - 13thOA+Martin Jones
Ladd - 22nd OA+Dano
Ryan - 10th OA+Silfverberg (8.0 type prospect at the time)+Noesen

And even in a trade of those calibers (which again, is market value) the likelihood is that none of those picks/players would become as good as a 1st line winger. The probability of drafting an impact player in the 8th-12th range is better than later picks in the 1st round, it's still not that good, much lower than 100% which is the probability that JVR becomes one - that's why players of his caliber get those kinds of returns

JVR is still only 27, so we only trade him if it really makes sense to do so. We have the cap to resign him and he's producing extremely well

 

[Randy Randerson]

I read this and then realized how irrational you are. Entire career? He scored 30 goals exactly in one year (total of 7 seasons so far) And has been injury prone in many other seasons. If you were more rational, I would debate with you but now your searching for info and claiming them as facts. Very silly!

read closer. Entire Leafs career - 98 goals in 271 games = 29.65 goals per 82 games

literally cold hard math, not sure how much more rational it gets than that

he's been hurt once and is completely healthy, having the best season of his career right now

 

[Gary Nylund]

How long you figure it's open, exactly?

That's impossible to say, exactly. You have this season for sure, probably next season as well, after that is gets iffy - you may have another year or two after that but then again, you may not. What do you think?

Price is your best player by far, without him you're toast, we're all agreed on that I would hope. He should be good for several more years but still, he's 29 right, he may still be playing at this level when he's 34, it's possible but I wouldn't count on it. Weber's 30, he'll likely start to decline well before Price so I'd say he's your biggest concern. To me, trading Subban for Weber moves up the timeline in any case.

JMHO.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Dumpster fire of a thread. JVR for Sergachev is a trade the Leafs would make if THEY had Sergachev and we had JVR.

Career .63 ppg player with a nice -33 and 1 30 goal season 3 years ago while playing top 6 minutes.

Hard pass.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sergachev might be a top 5 player in a weak year, in a normal year maybe a spot or two better. 2016 was a good draft, not a great one like 2015

the 3 best comparable trades I've seen in the last few years: Lucic & Ladd as TDL rentals and Bobby Ryan as a 2 year player.
Lucic - 13thOA+Martin Jones
Ladd - 22nd OA+Dano
Ryan - 10th OA+Silfverberg (8.0 type prospect at the time)+Noesen

And even in a trade of those calibers (which again, is market value) the likelihood is that none of those picks/players would become as good as a 1st line winger. The probability of drafting an impact player in the 8th-12th range is better than later picks in the 1st round, it's still not that good, much lower than 100% which is the probability that JVR becomes one - that's why players of his caliber get those kinds of returns

JVR is still only 27, so we only trade him if it really makes sense to do so. We have the cap to resign him and he's producing extremely well

If JVR was signed for another 4 seasons after this season, Id say it's close to fair. You can dream all you want but the Leafs are going to get 2nd tier prospects for JVR, Not an elite top 10 pick. Just not going to happen. Sorry

Bobby Ryan was a 30 goal scorer in 4 seasons when the Ducks traded him. JVR... only one season at 30 exactly. One other at 27 and then a big drop off with multiple seasons of injuries. His value is not a high as you think. He's still a above average LW though! Not saying he sucks.... just saying he's not getting an elite young talent in return.

 

[Randy Randerson]

If JVR was signed for another 4 seasons after this season, Id say it's close to fair. You can dream all you want but the Leafs are going to get 2nd tier prospects for JVR, Not an elite top 10 pick. Just not going to happen. Sorry

So if JVR was signed for another 4 seasons, he'd be worth what his comparables are with 3 months to 2 years of contract? seems rational

Bobby Ryan was also playing with Getzlaf and Perry, and they were in a cap pinch to deal him - both of those factor in to value

 

[Habs Halifax]

So if JVR was signed for another 4 seasons, he'd be worth what his comparables are with 3 months to 2 years of contract? seems rational

JVR is a 20-30 goal scorer, injury prone and 1 season away from being UFA. What don't you get?

JVR for Serg is like saying Pacioretty for Draisaitl. Both are childish trades and not happening due to term of contract left for JVR and Patch. Your not going to get a top 10 pick. Once again... Keep dreaming!

 

[BJCOLLINS]

JVR would be a decent pickup no doubt. I'm not sure if the Habs have a Schenn like player to trade in return, lol. The Habs would be foolish to entertain moving Serg or BigMc for JVR. PERIOD.


The TML would be better served to move him at the TDL, JVR would most certainly get a 1st + middling prospect. At least, IMHO.

 

[Randy Randerson]

JVR is a 20-30 goal scorer, injury prone and 1 season away from being UFA. What don't you get?

that only one of those things is true, I guess

And no, Sergachev isn't in the NHL so if you want to draw a comparison you need to use non-roster assets. It's like Pacioretty for Pierre-Luc Dubois (which for the record, I don't think is ridiculous at all)

 

[sansabri]

That's impossible to say, exactly. You have this season for sure, probably next season as well, after that is gets iffy - you may have another year or two after that but then again, you may not. What do you think?

Price is your best player by far, without him you're toast, we're all agreed on that I would hope. He should be good for several more years but still, he's 29 right, he may still be playing at this level when he's 34, it's possible but I wouldn't count on it. Weber's 30, he'll likely start to decline well before Price so I'd say he's your biggest concern. To me, trading Subban for Weber moves up the timeline in any case.

JMHO.

So in your opinion, we have a short window, but you don't know how long it is...

You don't count on the best goaltender in the world who is in his prime to be able to perform at this level when he's in his mid-30s. Weber will decline in 2 years? He'll go from being an elite #1 dman to what exactly? A no. 4? Worse?

You also don't count on our young core of Patches, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Shaw, etc,.

This is a pretty poor opinion. Our window is open for a good while.