When you look at what was available last summer to fill out the bottom 6 you could have easily spent about $4,000,000 and we would have been able to keep Beau and Josh in the AHL for another year. A lot of the names that have come up in discussion signed very cheap contracts for this season.
Assuming you were only going to fill in the 3rd line there were players like Brodziak and Wingels that signed for less than $1,000,000.
Also, even though his contract is too high Kulemin's loss hurts more than most of us appreciated at the time, including me.
The list for forwards who are UFA's next summer is full of 4th line players who could be useful if we decide to dangle Josh and Beau as trade chips to upgrade the defense. Wonder what we could get if BOTH of them were offered in a trade?
I'm beginning to think that we should look at keeping our top two lines intact and getting away from believing that we should run out four lines equally. Pittsburgh certainly doesn't run out four lines consistently and they've raised enough Cups lately, as has Chicago. The time might be ripe to completely re-think the bottom 6 and go in a different direction. The only bottom 6 player I am fully on board with keeping is Cizikas. Buying out Clutterbuck has to ba an option for the summer given the possible large rise in the salary cap.
Playing what if:
Chips to upgrade the defense, bottom 6 and goalie:
Nelson (RFA in 2018), Beau, Ho-Sang, Draft Picks, Bellows (assuming our Top 6 gets resigned to longer term contracts), Aho, Van De Sompel, Witherspoon (Toews is slotted in for bottom pairing next year on this)
DeHaan is likely to leave as a UFA due to not matching what he is going to get on the market
Hickey is gone, as is Seidenberg and Halak
Chimera is gone, Kulemin possibly comes back on a more reasonable contract, like $1,000,000 per year
Cizikas stays, but we need to add a faceoff winning center to the mix who also kills penalties and can play shut down. I agree with those who think Casey is ready to be the 3rd center.
Potential cheap UFAs in 2018 to fill the bottom line:
Richardson, Roussell, Maroon, Letestu, Beagle, Derek Ryan, JT Brown, Brodziak, Sceviour, Wingels
Potential Top Defenders to target: OEL, Hjalmarson, potentially one of the top RFA's (the list is pretty solid this year . . . Hanafin, Montour, Skjei, Dumba, Colin Miller, Edmundson, Ryan Murray)
Goalies: Dell, Hutton as UFAs, RFA's are Hellybuyck, Jarry, Dansk, Stolarz, Lehner and Wedgewood.
If the salary cap expands to $81,000,000 that leaves a lot of room if we fill our bottom 6 right:
Current Cap Hit: $72,881,000
Target $ 81,000,000 is possible in 2018-19
Already under contract:
| PLAYER (13) | POS. | AGE | BASE SALARY | SIGNING BONUS | PERF. BONUS | TOTAL SALARY | TOTAL
CAP HIT | ADJ.
CAP HIT | CAP % |
|---|
| Johnny Boychuk | D | 34 | $6,500,000 | - | - | $6,500,000 | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | 14.26 |
| Jordan Eberle | RW | 28 | $6,000,000 | - | - | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | 14.26 |
| Nick Leddy | D | 27 | $5,500,000 | - | - | $5,500,000 | $5,500,000 | $5,500,000 | 13.07 |
| Andrew Ladd | LW | 33 | $1,000,000 | $5,000,000 | - | $6,000,000 | $5,500,000 | $5,500,000 | 13.07 |
| Anders Lee | C | 28 | $5,000,000 | - | - | $5,000,000 | $3,750,000 | $3,750,000 | 8.91 |
| Cal Clutterbuck | RW | 31 | $4,000,000 | - | - | $4,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $3,500,000 | 8.32 |
| Casey Cizikas | C | 27 | $3,500,000 | - | - | $3,500,000 | $3,350,000 | $3,350,000 | 7.96 |
| Thomas Greiss | G | 32 | $3,250,000 | - | - | $3,250,000 | $3,333,333 | $3,333,333 | 7.92 |
| Adam Pelech | D | 24 | $1,100,000 | - | - | $1,100,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,600,000 | 3.80 |
| Mathew Barzal | C | 21 | $832,500 | - | $400,000 | - | $894,167 | $894,167 | 2.12 |
| Mathew Barzal | C | 21 | $832,500 | - | $400,000 | - | $894,167 | $894,167 | 2.12 |
| Anthony Beauvillier | LW | 21 | $832,500 | - | $212,500 | - | $894,167 | $894,167 | 2.12 |
| Joshua Ho-Sang | RW | 22 | $832,500 | - | $212,500 | - | $863,333 | $863,333 | 2.05 |
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Totals: about $42,000,000. Not sure why they have Barzal twice, but for rounding purposes it's not too much to adjust to.
Of course, with JT and Josh UFA's it's not nearly much at all.
Now buyout Clutterbuck. That amount changes from year to year but the only bigger cap hit comes in years 4 and 5 of the buyout at a little over $2,000,000 per but in the first year it actually has a positive effect.
JT comes in at $11,000,000 and Bailey at $7,000,000 (that might be a little high but Josh is on pace for nearly 100 points this season!)
We're up to $64,000,000, leaving $ 17,000,000
Toews, Mayfield and Pulock come in for a total of $4,000,000 to round out the bottom pairs, leaving money for a true Top 4/Top pair addition.
Leaves $13,000,000
Bottom 6 signings: Pick 4 from the list, say Richardson, Maroon, Sceviour and Brodziak, along with signing Kulemin at a lower number. Adds toughness, faceoffs and penalty killing. Also you can now shelter Ho-Sang or Beau with guys like this and if things turn out right you can find a way to scrape maybe 50-60 goals out of the bottom 6, while substantially increasing the defensive capabilities of this team. You can run the Top 2 lines through with the bottom 6 like this: 1st line, 2nd line, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. Skipping the 4th line every other scheduled shift for running four lines. And with a lead you go back to running all four lines equally.
Budgeting about $6 million for these signings leaves $7,000,000 for the goalie/defenders. Throw in potentially about a million for the possibility of trading Beau or Josh.
Now you have the tradeoff: Do we spend on the top goalie or the top defender? Also keep in mind that Anders gets a raise after 2018-19, but I think Eberle would be more than happy to re-sign at the same number. Also, what if JT and Bailey are reasonable and leave a little on the table . . . JT at $10 million and Josh at $6 million makes up the Lee difference and maybe a little on top.
The defense pairings without DeHaan look like:
Leddy-Pulock
Pelech-Boychuck
Toews-Mayfield
Goalies: Greiss and ??
Soderstrom would be a big difference maker if he is ready. If not then can we sign Dell at $3,000,000 as UFA? Dansk as RFA to get a shot . . . he'd come relatively cheap. Maybe trade Beau for Dansk and re-sign him for $1,500,000 for a year to see what he offers.
The key is to leave enough money to get a stud defender. With the changes to the bottom 6 above the need for a stud goalie goes down as the team defense gets much better.
Given the cap space you have to think that unless we get creative the Top pairing defender like an OEL is going to be out of reach.
But a Hjalmarson or Murray to replace DeHaan at less money makes a lot of sense. Then you can run:
Leddy-Pulock
Hjal/Murray - Pelech
Toews-Boychuck
And that's a nice balanced defense
So, the possible final look:
Lee / LT / Bailey
Ladd / Barzal / Eberle
Maroon / Casey / Brodziak
Ho-Sang / Richardson / Sceviour or Kulemin
Leddy-Pulock
Hjal/Murray - Pelech
Toews-Boychuck
Mayfield
Dansk/Soderstom/Greiss
Better built for a Stanley Cup run
And yeah, sometimes I have too much time on my hands
