Speculation: Is Marner worth four 1st rounders now?

[PWJunior]

Agree 100%. Today was a reality check. Doesn’t matter who the coach or GM is, nobody wants to be an islander who isn’t drafted here. This is the only way we have a shot. Drafting and trading. I think last years overachieving delayed the inevitability that this team needs to retool. The division got better and we got worse.

I got the reality check last year. I knew the only way to get a stud was to tank/retool and I got obliterated for it around these parts. I enjoyed the Cinderella season immensely, but here we are.

People want instant fixes and they are not coming. But whatever.

 

[BKIsles]

I don't get this infatuation with Marner, wouldn't he have to sign the offer sheet? I would say that's the first roadblock.

 

[ekill08x]

I got the reality check last year. I knew the only way to get a stud was to tank/retool and I got obliterated for it around these parts. I enjoyed the Cinderella season immensely, but here we are.

People want instant fixes and they are not coming. But whatever.

You’re right man. Last year was a blast we all can agree but it delayed the inevitable.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Doesn't matter now, they can pay him...

 

[blinkman360]

Yeah but you can’t skip or sleep on it. You trade the picks and they go to the Leafs of all places.

The Isles could miss out on the playoffs and win the draft say like the Devils did and look who fell into the Devils lap?

If the Isles could cherry pick elite talent like the Rag$ or Leafs, it would be less risky, but they cannot. I can see a first rounder + 1 Top prospect like Dobson, but 4 first rounders would set this franchise back a decade.

The first round is the only way this team is going to get better.

True but taking a step back and looking big picture, how much would it actually set us back?

You’d have two 22 year old studs. The rest of your top-six is locked up for 5+ years. Our D core is already built for the long term with guys like Dobson - one of the best D prospects in the world - on the way; we greatly improved the odds of bringing over arguably the best G prospect in the world next year with what we did today; and we’re pretty well stocked with quality forward prospects in Wahlstrom, Bellows, Holmstrom, MDC, Koivula, JHS and Iskhakov(many of which are already at the pro level).

Obviously losing 4 1sts will hurt a lot but I don’t agree with the theory that it destroys our future. We’ve been doing a pretty good job of stockpiling futures and developing our own to make a move like this possible.

That said, I ain’t getting my hopes up.

 

[Islesfan22]

Can we close this thread as this is not going to happen.

 

[KevFu]

It's probably not going to happen, but the argument of "whether or not it's worth the risk" is a pretty valid and interesting.

Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a great career AVG WAR chart, but I found something similar.

Marner has averaged 0.93 points per game, which is basically near the Hall of Fame cutline. And obviously, his total production will likely bell curve over the course of his career, so we’re not calling him a HOF player just yet.

But the average 17th pick (first round playoff exit) is about 0.25 PPG
and the average 25th pick (second round playoff exit) is like 0.21 PPG.

So basically, you’re looking at “If we perform as we should, compared to draft as we should, Marner is worth almost exactly four number one picks”

You miss on one of those four picks, and Marner absolutely beats the value of three number one picks; and if you don’t make the playoffs with Marner, then you’re losing the trade.


Long story short, if we had 20 million in cap space, I’d submit an offer sheet on Marner.

I’d be tempted to submit an offer sheet without the cap space solely because we need to move Leddy or Hickey anyway, and even of the Leafs match, you’re sentencing them to Cap Hell where they’d have to make at least one more trade of one of their top players just to be cap compliant, and they’d have a bottom 6 forward/bottom 2 defense of all rookies/ELC/waiver guys because they couldn’t afford anyone better.

You can make the Leafs a top-heavy thin team like the Penguins were this year by “losing” and you gain an elite player at age 22 if you win.

Again, probably not going to happen, but I'd be pulling the trigger on it.


That's what I really don't get about the Canadiens offer sheet: Carolina has tons of cap space, of course they're going to match and it doesn't really do anything negative to them.

 

[Islanders4Cups]

But the average 17th pick (first round playoff exit) is about 0.25 PPG
and the average 25th pick (second round playoff exit) is like 0.21 PPG.

Yeah, play the averages. There are highs and lows that average out. Had the Devils played averages, being a 97 point team in 2018, had they traded their first rounder and then missed the playoffs in 2019 landing them a lottery winning top pick, which could be an elite generational player himself, what does that look like now? In the Devils case, one first round pick would have much too much. Now do it 3 more times consecutively.

No matter what the results were last season, the Islanders are building for a sustainable future, not a flash in the pan. Last season was a nice surprise and people think one player right now is going to win you a cup. The Isles were more than one player away from winning a cup.

 

[Palfmeister]

Can we close this thread as this is not going to happen.

If people don't want to have this discussion they don't have to. No reason to close a thread.

 

[BelovedIsles]

Yeppp. Shed some salary and OS him. W him in the lineup, combined w Trotz and a decent core, we’ll have 4 years of 18-31 picks. NYI will likely strike out on most of those picks, it’s a numbers game. Do it! (But he won’t).

 

[BelovedIsles]

So you guys saying yes are either kidding or a Leafs fan. Here the Isles cannot sign an elite UFA and you would trade away just about the only way to bring in potential elite talent for the next 4 years just before they open their new building. That is absolutely crazy and LL would never do it.

This mentality has got to stop. IF NYI has 2 of those 4 years in the top 4 picks, fair argument. But it’s a crap shoot; the team is too good, w an elite coach. We won’t be seeing 2-4 years of top 5 picks. We also won’t be sniffing the Cup either. I’ve seen enough hockey where a Claude Giroux or Hertl is more the anomaly; Kieffer Bellows is the norm.

This is a 16-31 team most years. Marner is worth it. Pack your bags Nick Leddy.

Btw, Marner isn’t a flash in the pan. He’s 22, will enter prime in 3 years. You build a core around him and Barzal. Not Eberle and Barzal. It’s not often an organization gets the opportunity to add such talent, e.g Marner.

 

[Duanesutter12]

Well, to be fair your player mix in this trade is a little skewed. Would you trade Barzal and Beau? Barzal and Dobson? Dobson, Beau and Wahlstron? I think the point is four first round picks are a lot to give up. Sure some of them might now pan out like we expected but at the same time you will likely also strike gold. I think it's all a moot point anyway, I just cant see Marner leaving TML and coming here.

Only one of those guys has been an impact player in the NHL. I said if we plan on being competitive, implying that our 1st round picks would not be in top-15 (excluding Dobson and Wahlstrom from your list) - Would I trade Beauvillier + Holmstrom + Bellows + Another question mark for Marner? I'd have to sleep on it.

 

[KevFu]

Well, to be fair your player mix in this trade is a little skewed. Would you trade Barzal and Beau? Barzal and Dobson? Dobson, Beau and Wahlstron? I think the point is four first round picks are a lot to give up. Sure some of them might now pan out like we expected but at the same time you will likely also strike gold. I think it's all a moot point anyway, I just cant see Marner leaving TML and coming here.

I'd say that Barzal was the 16th overall pick, and we'd pick worse than that going forward if we had Marner.

We also had a four year stretch of: O’Marra (15), Nokelainen (16), Nilsson (15), Bergenheim (22).


The reason you do it isn't to necessarily get a franchise player to replace JT. The reason you do it is because "losing" the attempt basically cripples the Leafs. The max offer gives the Leafs $16.5 million for 14 players. They'd be $8 million over the cap.

Even if you traded the Leafs four first round picks as compensation, they might only actually get to keep three of them because of cap violations. The NHL could be lenient on them because we offer-sheeted them, but they'd still have to make their team worse, on purpose.

Remember, Vegas made the SCF in year one because they selected 22 "Second Line" guys and a franchise goalie. They won because their first line matched up with elite talent, and lines 2-3-4 were better than the rest of the league's 2-3-4 lines. Toronto would have an elite starting six players and like, four other guys above replacement for the rest of the roster.


I'm actually not sure if it would be better for us to GET Marner or just force them to be top-heavy.

 

[Phil120362]

I'd say that Barzal was the 16th overall pick, and we'd pick worse than that going forward if we had Marner.

We also had a four year stretch of: O’Marra (15), Nokelainen (16), Nilsson (15), Bergenheim (22).


The reason you do it isn't to necessarily get a franchise player to replace JT. The reason you do it is because "losing" the attempt basically cripples the Leafs. The max offer gives the Leafs $16.5 million for 14 players. They'd be $8 million over the cap.

Even if you traded the Leafs four first round picks as compensation, they might only actually get to keep three of them because of cap violations. The NHL could be lenient on them because we offer-sheeted them, but they'd still have to make their team worse, on purpose.

Remember, Vegas made the SCF in year one because they selected 22 "Second Line" guys and a franchise goalie. They won because their first line matched up with elite talent, and lines 2-3-4 were better than the rest of the league's 2-3-4 lines. Toronto would have an elite starting six players and like, four other guys above replacement for the rest of the roster.


I'm actually not sure if it would be better for us to GET Marner or just force them to be top-heavy.

I admire your kahonee's,but I think GM's sorry if that said player gets injured,no 1st rounder.to replace them,potentially...

 

[Phil120362]

Worry

 

[Merrrlin]

What about Connor? 2 1sts? Make it happen Lou

 

[jetsv2]

What about Connor? 2 1sts? Make it happen Lou

It's actually 2 1sts, a second and a 3rd and the Jets would match.

 

[Skip To My Lou]

Offer sheet was a real thing to me after Panarin curved us. Now it's very unrealistic.

 

[Merrrlin]

It's actually 2 1sts, a second and a 3rd and the Jets would match.

Of course they would. I would rather have Connor at 8 than Marner at 11.5 if we're talking hypotheticals, though.

 

[PWJunior]

Of course they would. I would rather have Connor at 8 than Marner at 11.5 if we're talking hypotheticals, though.

After the Aho and Meier deals, not seeing Marner getting over the $10.5M threshold for the 4 1sts compensation O/S. The only team dumb enough to go over that is Dubas and the Leafs. I hope it drags on for a long time though.

Connor doesn't move the needle for me, we need a player who drives the offense. That's why I would do it for Marner.

 

[Merrrlin]

After the Aho and Meier deals, not seeing Marner getting over the $10.5M threshold for the 4 1sts compensation O/S. The only team dumb enough to go over that is Dubas and the Leafs. I hope it drags on for a long time though.

Connor doesn't move the needle for me, we need a player who drives the offense. That's why I would do it for Marner.

Will be interesting to see what Rantanen and Point get. Aho's deal is quite the sweetheart. Rantanen's contract is one of the most interesting RFA deals we've seen, in my opinion. He was producing like an Art Ross calibre player for 70% of last season.

 

[19 in a row]

So after signing Kerfoot and Ceci today Leafs are back down under $4M in cap space as per cap friendly without singing Marner yet. All but one of their D is a free agent next year.. Will they be able to free up enough room to sign Marner? Not sure what they are doing with their cap management.. still seems to be a bit of a mess.

 

[PWJunior]

So after signing Kerfoot and Ceci today Leafs are back down under $4M in cap space as per cap friendly without singing Marner yet. All but one of their D is a free agent next year.. Will they be able to free up enough room to sign Marner? Not sure what they are doing with their cap management.. still seems to be a bit of a mess.

I'm told some combination of LTIR, 10% cap overage, sending some kids to the AHL, and whatever other sorcery will add up to about $11M to get Marner signed.

In any case, the Leafs will be almost completely maxed out with no more options to free up more cap unless they trade a big ticket player once Marner is signed. They got even smaller and softer than last year, didn't think that was possible yet Dubas accomplished that. One injury to anyone of significance and they are f***ed.

Otherwise Dubas is doing a masterful job.

 

[Eye Test]

Bailey-Barzal-Eberle
Lee-Nelson-Marner

Whew.

Doesn’t even look that good imo.

 

[Eye Test]

I'd say that Barzal was the 16th overall pick, and we'd pick worse than that going forward if we had Marner.

We also had a four year stretch of: O’Marra (15), Nokelainen (16), Nilsson (15), Bergenheim (22).


The reason you do it isn't to necessarily get a franchise player to replace JT. The reason you do it is because "losing" the attempt basically cripples the Leafs. The max offer gives the Leafs $16.5 million for 14 players. They'd be $8 million over the cap.

Even if you traded the Leafs four first round picks as compensation, they might only actually get to keep three of them because of cap violations. The NHL could be lenient on them because we offer-sheeted them, but they'd still have to make their team worse, on purpose.

Remember, Vegas made the SCF in year one because they selected 22 "Second Line" guys and a franchise goalie. They won because their first line matched up with elite talent, and lines 2-3-4 were better than the rest of the league's 2-3-4 lines. Toronto would have an elite starting six players and like, four other guys above replacement for the rest of the roster.


I'm actually not sure if it would be better for us to GET Marner or just force them to be top-heavy.

If you offer sheeted marner and he accepted it resulting in the leafs getting NYI’s first round pick for four years then how would the leafs be in cap problems resulting in losing a first round pick since they don’t have to sign marner?

Literally makes no sense.

I get the point to make the leafs top heavy if marner accepted the offer sheet.