Is Kadri a 1C?

[WesMcCauley]

Kadri does even better when looking beyond just point totals.

Not really... Leafs fans talk about him beeing a shutdown center but last season he didnt shut anyone down. Bad on ice goals against. You arent great defensively just because you play in the top 6 and i have no clue why so many centers are called shutdown centers when they dont shut the opposing team down... Makes no sense.

 

[zeke]

Because I don't rely on cherrypicked figures from one season to evaluate players. I mean, are any of my takes more outlandish than "Schenn could be similar offensively to Karlsson & Stajan (or was it Wellwood?) will be better than Spezza"?

so what do you rely on, then?

 

[TheBradyBunch]

so what do you rely on, then?

Eye-test and figures over several years. Who do you take issue with on the list? I like Kadri a lot, I've wanted him on the Sens, before he was extended and we had dealt for Brassard, when it looked like he might be dealt. I just think he's a very good #2 or an equal top 6 center in a platoon situation (see: Brassard-Turris-Pageau/Stepan-Zibanejad-Hayes/Staal-Koivu-E.EK), and not a bonafide #1. Many of the guys on the "similar" list, like Turris, Little, Koivu, Stastny, Johansen, Duchene, etc. have played that exact role, successfully, for longer than Kadri has.

 

[Regal]

Eye-test and figures over several years. Who do you take issue with on the list? I like Kadri a lot, I've wanted him on the Sens, before he was extended and we had dealt for Brassard, when it looked like he might be dealt. I just think he's a very good #2 or an equal top 6 center in a platoon situation (see: Brassard-Turris-Pageau/Stepan-Zibanejad-Hayes/Staal-Koivu-E.EK), and not a bonafide #1. Many of the guys on the "similar" list, like Turris, Little, Koivu, Stastny, Johansen, Duchene, etc. have played that exact role, successfully, for longer than Kadri has.

Exactly. There's a lot of guys who've shown capable of scoring in the 55-65 point range consistently while being good all around players. I can see preferring Kadri to a number of them, but it's basically just personal preference for quite a few guys in the 20+ range for centers. One thing with Kadri is his linemates weren't the best compared to a number of similar scoring centers last year though.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

Clearly better:
1) Getzlaf, ANA - .96PPG
2) Bergeron, BOS - .75PPG
3) Krejci, BOS - .78PPG
4) Eichel, BUF - .81PPG
5) O’Reilly, BUF - .76PPG
6) Monahan, CGY - .69PPG
7) Toews, CHI - .80PPG
8) Mackinnon, COL - .69PPG
9) Seguin, DAL - 1.00PPG
10) Zetterberg, DET - .81PPG
11) McDavid, EDM - 1.16 PPG (136GP)
12) Barkov, FLA - .69PPG
13) Kopitar, LAK - .83PPG
14) Carter, LAK - .76PPG
15) Tavares, NYI - .98PPG
16) Crosby, PIT - 1.15PPG
17) Malkin, PIT - 1.09PPG
18) Couture, SJ - .78PPG
19) Matthews, TOR - .90PPG
20) Stamkos, TBL - .96PPG
21) Backstrom, WSH - .98PPG
22) Kuznetsov, WSH -.72PPG
23) Scheifele, WIN - .78PPG

Similar

• Kesler, ANA - .63PPG
• Stepan, AZ - .72PPG
• Backlund, CGY - .57PPG
• J. Staal, CAR - .55PPG
• E. Staal, MIN - .68PPG
• Wennberg, CLB - .56PPG
• Johansen, NSH - .77PPG
• Duchene, COL - .73PPG
• Larkin, DET - .51PPG
• Nugent-Hopkins, EDM - .64PPG
• Trochek, FLA - .62PPG
• Koivu, MIN - .70PPG
• Drouin, MTL - .59PPG
• Henrique, NJD - .59PPG
• Hischier, NJD - NA
• Barzal, NYI - NA
• Nelson, NYI - .49PPG
• Zibanejad, NYR - .59PPG
• Turris, OTT - .70PPG
• Brassard, OTT - .64PPG
• Couturier, PHI - .53PPG
• Stastny, STL - .72PPG
• Schenn, STL - .53PPG
• Thornton, SJ - .85PPG
• Johnson, TBL - .69PPG
• Horvat, VAN - .51PPG
• Little, WIN - .77PPG

It's actually incredibly easy to do. He's closer to #40 than #30 imo.

Over the past 4 years, Kadri has produced at a .64PPG rate.

Red PPGs are higher than Kadri, orange are equal, blues are below and pink are significantly lower (=< .10PPG)

Others, non-listed, who ranked ahead of Kadri:
Giroux - .89PPG
Spezza - .79PPG
H. Sedin - .73PPG
Bozak - 68PPG
Marleau - .67PPG
Point - .65PPG

So that's 36 guys who have outproduced Kadri over the past 4 years, plus Point, McDavid and Matthews (who haven't been in the league that long). 2 guys, Brassard and Nuge, have been equally productive as Nazim. Brass was Ottawa's top possession fwd last year and Nuge is no slouch around the rink.

I also omitted guys like Fabbri, Reinhart, Coyle, and some others from the "similar" category - guys who are younger than Kadri and really could break out at any moment. They won't all, but we can count on someone coming from out of the woodworks.

Again, I think Kadri is a very good player, but it's hard to see a place for him firmly amongst the leagues top 31 centers. He doesn't PK, he doesn't play huge minutes, he doesn't score at an especially high rate, he's a very good player but not elite and, if he's a top 31 center, he's right on the very fringe of that grouping.

 

[zeke]

Top 82gm pace Centers, 16/17 - 17/18:

1.McDavid 31gls, 99pts
2.Crosby 46gls, 94pts
3.Malkin 41gls, 93pts
4.Backstrom 23gls, 87pts
5.Scheifele 33gls, 84pts
6.Getzlaf 17gls, 83pts
7.Eichel 32gls, 78pts
8.Matthews 42gls, 74pts
9.Tavares 35gls, 74pts
10.Seguin 28gls, 73pts
11.Barkov 28gls, 72pts
12.Zetterberg 18gls, 67pts
13.Kuznetsov 19gls, 65pts
14.Staal 29gls, 65pts
15.Kadri 34gls, 64pts
15.Carter 30gls, 64pts
15.Toews 23gls, 64pts

Going back 1yr further, so 2yrs plus this year, 82gm paces.

I've added in score/zone-adjusted xgf%, and then i've taken TOIQOC - i.e. qualcomp by opponents' ice time - and divvied it up into letter grades to make it easier to understand.


1.McDavid: 31gls, 95pts, 20:30 (57.2xgf%, A qoc)
2.Crosby: 42gls, 91pts, 20:11 (54.7xgf%, A qoc)
3.Malkin: 40gls, 89pts, 18:51 (53.9xgf%, B+ qoc)
4.Backstrom: 23gls, 83pts, 18:47 (51.2xgf%, A qoc)
5.Stamkos: 38gls, 81pts, 19:25 (49.8xgf%, A- qoc)
6.Scheifele: 33gls, 78pts, 19:43 (52.7xgf%, B+ qoc)
7.Seguin: 32gls, 78pts, 18:59 (50.9xgf%, A qoc)
8.Getzlaf: 15gls, 75pts, 20:13(54.7xgf%, B+ qoc)
9.Matthews: 42gls, 74pts, 17:42 (53.3xgf%, B+ qoc)
10.Tavares: 35gls, 74pts, 20:14 (51.4xgf%, A- qoc)
11.Barkov: 31gls, 72pts, 19:38 (50.8xgf%, A- qoc)
12.Kuznetsov: 23gls, 71pts, 17:18 (51.7xgf%, B qoc)
13.Kopitar: 22gls, 68pts, 20:53 (55.3xgf%, A- qoc)
14.Eichel: 28gls, 67pts, 19:33 (45.8xgf%, B qoc)
15.Thornton: 13gls, 67pts, 18:11 (56.8xgf%, A qoc)
16.Giroux: 20gls, 66pts, 19:45 (47.7xgf%, A- qoc)
17.Carter: 28gls, 65pts, 18:08 (53.8xgf%, B+ qoc)
18.OReilly: 24gls, 65pts, 21:30 (47.8xgf%, A qoc)
19.Bergeron: 27gls, 63pts, 19:40 (58.6xgf%, A+ qoc)
20.Krejci: 23gls, 63pts, 19:08 (50.6xgf%, B+ qoc)
21.Spezza: 26gls, 63pts, 16:07 (50.4xgf%, B qoc)
22.Toews: 26gls, 62pts, 19:43 (48.6xgf%, A+ qoc)
23.Little: 26gls, 62pts, 18:29 (49.9xgf%, A qoc)
24.Monahan: 28gls, 61pts, 18:18 (48.5xgf%, A- qoc)
25.Couture: 29gls, 60pts, 17:31 (54.2xgf%, B qoc)
26.Johansen: 13gls, 60pts, 18:15 (53.0xgf%, A- qoc)
27.Zetterberg: 16gls, 59pts, 19:37 (50.1xgf%, A- qoc)
28.Koivu: 19gls, 58pts, 19:32 (56.7xgf%, A qoc)
29.Stastny: 19gls, 58pts, 19:11 (52.7xgf%, A- qoc)
30.Stepan: 21gls, 58pts, 18:21 (50.9xgf%, A- qoc)
31.Trocheck: 25gls, 58pts, 19:29 (51.4xgf%, B+ qoc)
32.Kadri: 27gls, 57pts, 17:19 (51.4xgf%, A qoc)
33.Kesler: 22gls, 57pts, 20:26 (54.8xgf%, A qoc)
34.Mackinnon: 26gls, 56pts, 19:19 (46.1xgf%, A qoc)
35.Wennberg: 11gls, 55pts, 17:19 (51.6xgf%, B qoc)

 

[zeke]

Over the past 4 years, Kadri has produced at a .64PPG rate.

Red PPGs are higher than Kadri, orange are equal, blues are below and pink are significantly lower (=< .10PPG)

Others, non-listed, who ranked ahead of Kadri:
Giroux - .89PPG
Spezza - .79PPG
H. Sedin - .73PPG
Bozak - 68PPG
Marleau - .67PPG
Point - .65PPG

So that's 36 guys who have outproduced Kadri over the past 4 years, plus Point, McDavid and Matthews (who haven't been in the league that long). 2 guys, Brassard and Nuge, have been equally productive as Nazim. Brass was Ottawa's top possession fwd last year and Nuge is no slouch around the rink.

I also omitted guys like Fabbri, Reinhart, Coyle, and some others from the "similar" category - guys who are younger than Kadri and really could break out at any moment. They won't all, but we can count on someone coming from out of the woodworks.

Again, I think Kadri is a very good player, but it's hard to see a place for him firmly amongst the leagues top 31 centers. He doesn't PK, he doesn't play huge minutes, he doesn't score at an especially high rate, he's a very good player but not elite and, if he's a top 31 center, he's right on the very fringe of that grouping.

Looking at your list, it seems to me that going back 4yrs really starts to get away from what players are now.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

Looking at your list, it seems to me that going back 4yrs really starts to get away from what players are now.

You're right, I should have checked Kadri's #s more closely. I wrongly assumed his PPG was better over 4 yrs than the past 2 and change. That said, I don't think it would negatively affect too many guys. Thornton, Spezza, Marleau, Sedin, some guys like that, but even your own numbers show him at 32 (and don't include those guys other than Joe).

 

[zeke]

You're right, I should have checked Kadri's #s more closely. I wrongly assumed his PPG was better over 4 yrs than the past 2 and change. That said, I don't think it would negatively affect too many guys. Thornton, Spezza, Marleau, Sedin, some guys like that, but even your own numbers show him at 32 (and don't include those guys other than Joe).

but even the names you mention right here kind of show that the sample is a bit too old to get a good idea of what they are now i think.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

but even the names you mention right here kind of show that the sample is a bit too old to get a good idea of what they are now i think.

I agree, and that's why your numbers are better. But even your numbers don't really suggest he's a #1C. If anything they reaffirm my rankings.

 

[zeke]

true, but he's getting close, and he's getting into his 2nd year of sure looking like one now.

 

[ColdSteel2]

If he keeps it up, he'd be welcomed as a 1C on most teams. There are not a lot of 2-way Cs that score goals like him. If Jeff Carter is a 1C, and he is IMO, then Kadri should be as well.

 

[Atomos2]

He's 27, and excluding last year has career high point totals of 45 and 50. I wouldn't say he's defensively elite either.

Great #2 Centre, similar to that of Backlund, but your team will struggle if Kadri is your #1 centre IMO.

Yeah let's just exclude an entire season of hockey because it doesn't support your argument. Guess Pittsburgh didn't win the cup. Guess Matthews is still a rookie. Guess Mcdavid is still trophy-less. I guess we're all one year younger. That should make your argument look better.

 

[North Man]

Yeah let's just exclude an entire season of hockey because it doesn't support your argument. Guess Pittsburgh didn't win the cup. Guess Matthews is still a rookie. Guess Mcdavid is still trophy-less. I guess we're all one year younger. That should make your argument look better.

You are acting like he put up 80 points last season. He put up 61. Sure go ahead and nitpick at my reasoning, but he's still not a #1 Centre and most likely never will be on a contending team.

 

[Aladyyn]

Sure. A lower-end one, but one nonetheless.

 

[ManofSteel55]

No.

 

[ACC1224]

He could be if the need arises but no Team would target him as a #1. He's really turned into a very good player though.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Low-end, yes.

If you asked me couple years ago i would've said no, but right now im leaning towards yes. He's got enough skill, worked hard to improve defensively and has experience of playing against tough competition.

For me you're 1C if you can be the top line center on a team expecting to make the playoffs. I think a team with good depth and Kadri as their 1C would be a playoff team.

However he's low-end because i wouldn't want him play 1C on a contending team.

Matthews-Kadri is the ideal 1-2 punch moving forward, part of what makes the Leafs such a good team.

If we look at a team like Vegas, i'd have much more faith in their cinderella run to the playoffs if they had Kadri instead of Eakin.

 

[al secord]

If he played for Arizona.

 

[Yackiberg8]

Low-end, yes.

If you asked me couple years ago i would've said no, but right now im leaning towards yes. He's got enough skill, worked hard to improve defensively and has experience of playing against tough competition.

For me you're 1C if you can be the top line center on a team expecting to make the playoffs. I think a team with good depth and Kadri as their 1C would be a playoff team.

However he's low-end because i wouldn't want him play 1C on a contending team.

Matthews-Kadri is the ideal 1-2 punch moving forward, part of what makes the Leafs such a good team.

If we look at a team like Vegas, i'd have much more faith in their cinderella run to the playoffs if they had Kadri instead of Eakin.

This is the right answer to me.

He isn't the idea that people have as the true #1 centre but he is clearly right around #30 in a list of the top centres around the league.

It is nitpicking whether you feel he is a low-end #1 or a high-end #2.

 

[Randy Randerson]

He's a 1C in the context of the NHL in that he's a top 31 center, but he's not the kind of center that you can build a contender around. "1C" by label, 2C on a contending team - I think this is more an argument based on lack of definition of terms than anything

 

[Gary Nylund]

Over the past 4 years, Kadri has produced at a .64PPG rate.

Red PPGs are higher than Kadri, orange are equal, blues are below and pink are significantly lower (=< .10PPG)

Others, non-listed, who ranked ahead of Kadri:
Giroux - .89PPG
Spezza - .79PPG
H. Sedin - .73PPG
Bozak - 68PPG
Marleau - .67PPG
Point - .65PPG

So that's 36 guys who have outproduced Kadri over the past 4 years, plus Point, McDavid and Matthews (who haven't been in the league that long). 2 guys, Brassard and Nuge, have been equally productive as Nazim. Brass was Ottawa's top possession fwd last year and Nuge is no slouch around the rink.

I also omitted guys like Fabbri, Reinhart, Coyle, and some others from the "similar" category - guys who are younger than Kadri and really could break out at any moment. They won't all, but we can count on someone coming from out of the woodworks.

Again, I think Kadri is a very good player, but it's hard to see a place for him firmly amongst the leagues top 31 centers. He doesn't PK, he doesn't play huge minutes, he doesn't score at an especially high rate, he's a very good player but not elite and, if he's a top 31 center, he's right on the very fringe of that grouping.

I'm a huge Kadri fan and this seems fair. Not firmly beyond a doubt among the top 31 but on the fringes and in the discussion is IMO spot on.

Nice post.

 

[Regal]

Yeah let's just exclude an entire season of hockey because it doesn't support your argument. Guess Pittsburgh didn't win the cup. Guess Matthews is still a rookie. Guess Mcdavid is still trophy-less. I guess we're all one year younger. That should make your argument look better.

Or maybe some people prefer a player to establish their play for more than one season before proclaiming them to be at that level.

 

[Halla]

Centers i would rather have than Kadri if you ignore contract and age and just want the best center for this season.
Boston: Bergeron, Krejci
Buffalo: Eichel, ROR
Detroit: Zetterberg
Florida: Barkov, Trocheck
Montreal: Drouin
Ottawa: Turris
Tampa: Stamkos, (Johnson and Point)
Toronto: Matthews
Carolina: None
Columbus: (Wennberg)
Devils: None
Islanders: Tavares
Rangers: (Zibanajad)
Flyers: Giroux( Couturier)
Pens: Crosby, Malkin
Caps: Kuznetsov, Backstrom
Chicago: Toews
Colorado: Duchene, Mackinnon
Dallas: Seguin
Minnesota: Granlund, Koivu, E Staal (Coyle)
Nashville: Johansen
Blues: None
Winnipeg: Scheifele and Little
Anaheim: Getzlaf and Kesler
Arizona: Stepan
Calgary: Monahan
Edmonton: Mcdavid and Draisaitl
LA: Kopitar and Carter
San Jose: Couture
Vancouver: None
Vegas: None

36 centers i would comfortably take before Kadri. Then another 6 centers i have () around who could go either way.

as expected, many of the names are laughable.

Stepan: has never hit 25g or 60pts. Kadri has 19g more than him since last year
Zibanejad career season is 20g/51pts
Couturier HAS NEVER HIT 40pts
Drouin: hasn't played much at C, and now that he is the team he plays for is terrible and he has a 44% FO rate
Little: can't stay healthy, missing 60+ games the past 3 years. one 60pt season in 10 years doesnt make him better
Wennberg: has been meh this year. even columbus fans admit he is at best a 2C. could be better in the future but 32g/61pts>>13g/59pts
Point: plays a lot of wing, coming off a 40pt season. could be better, but as of right now isnt. nice to get to play against the 3rd lines every night too
Johnson: HAHA he might never get 50pts again. naz has 15g/20pts more since last season..and cant really use the "he plays with matthews" excuse here right?
Turris: the poll currently up has that at 50/50. not exactly comfortably
Krejci: coming off a miserable season. at his very best he is what kadri was last year
Trochek: hasnt even hit 55pts yet
Monahan: debateable 38g/72pts for naz since last year vs 33g/68pts
4 wild guys: the silliest of all. Coyle hasnt hit both 20g AND 50pts in a season yet but he is better than a guy coming off 32/61? Granlund is debateable considering he has been a 40ish pt his entire career then exploded last year on a breakout wild team.

I'd take about 20 guys on your list over naz

 

[Halla]

I'm a huge Kadri fan and this seems fair. Not firmly beyond a doubt among the top 31 but on the fringes and in the discussion is IMO spot on.

Nice post.

doesnt take a lot of factors into account.

1) kadri was on garbage teams in 2013-2015 that couldnt score
2) it is including years of guys like marleau, sedin,spezza where they werent regressing as much as now. 45-55 pt players at best given their age.
3) it is including guys who havent even primarily played C (point) and don't even have a full sample size
Josh leivo has a 0.79ppg since last year. is he better than everyone who had less than 65pts in a full season last year?