News Article: Inside Ken Holland's challenge of rebuilding the Red Wings on the fly

[Henkka]

" I want the fans to see a playoff game at LCA." Translation: I'll sign over the hill vets, give up picks, sign more ludicrous contracts..all so the owners get playoff revenue.

What it means: This franchise is sinking faster than the Titanic. The owners need to remove this man before the franchise is completely ruined.

If the franchise is sinking towards the NHL bottom, that means highest overall picks. Aren't you tankers wanting exactly that?

 

[Heaton]

If the franchise is sinking towards the NHL bottom, that means highest overall picks. Aren't you tankers wanting exactly that?

I want both. I want a GM who makes proactive moves while getting high draft picks. Not a GM who tries to do one thing, fails, and just happens to get high draft picks.

One way is a path to success, the other is a path to prolonged failure.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Not a GM who tries to do one thing, fails, and just happens to get high draft picks.

That's pretty much how every single rebuild ever got started. MAYBE a handful of debatable exceptions. The "issue" is Holland has an insane track record of not failing.

No one rebuilds from a position where the team is doing well. Failure leads to rebuilds.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

That's pretty much how every single rebuild ever got started. MAYBE a handful of debatable exceptions. The "issue" is Holland has an insane track record of not failing.

No one rebuilds from a position where the team is doing well. Failure leads to rebuilds.

I mean if you classify the last four seasons as doing "well"...

 

[Pavels Dog]

I mean if you classify the last four seasons as doing "well"...

This season? Hell no. Last season? No. Season before that? Yes. 100 points and a competitive playoff performance is doing "well" unless you're a team going all-in for the cup.

 

[Mount Suribachi]

If the franchise is sinking towards the NHL bottom, that means highest overall picks. Aren't you tankers wanting exactly that?

Not whilst operating just a few cents below the cap ceiling with a bunch of bloated long term contracts.

Between now and 2020 there will be good players available. There will be teams looking to trade players to make cap room, or roster room.

We aren't in any of these conversations because we have absolutely zero flexibility with cap room and roster spots.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Not whilst operating just a few cents below the cap ceiling with a bunch of bloated long term contracts.

Between now and 2020 there will be good players available. There will be teams looking to trade players to make cap room, or roster room.

We aren't in any of these conversations because we have absolutely zero flexibility with cap room and roster spots.

What's the value difference between taking on a bad contract for a pick, or selling at the TDL? These seem like different sides of the same coin to me. The former is done by budget teams to maximize the value of their unused cap space, the latter is done by "rich" teams to both maximize the chance of an actual good season and gain value out of assets deemed unimportant in the long-term.

The "flexibility" that budget teams have is largely an illusion imo. True flexibility comes from having too many good players, a logjam of talent. We're not quite there but when our pipeline starts producing higher-end talent we'll be sitting on quite a few veterans who by then will have short terms left on their contracts. That will give us flexibility to either go on playoff runs while our core is cheap, or to sell off veterans and keep loading up on young talent.

Keep in mind how many years it will take for a Necas/Pettersson/other to start making real money. 5-6 years minimum really.

 

[Heaton]

That's pretty much how every single rebuild ever got started. MAYBE a handful of debatable exceptions. The "issue" is Holland has an insane track record of not failing.

No one rebuilds from a position where the team is doing well. Failure leads to rebuilds.

I'm still waiting for it to start. And really, GMs make really stupid decisions every year that fans and media see as bad moves. So I'm not going to concede that you have to hit rock bottom before realizing a rebuild is needed. Just because GMs can be too stubborn to be proactive doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

 

[jolly roger]

I want both. I want a GM who makes proactive moves while getting high draft picks. Not a GM who tries to do one thing, fails, and just happens to get high draft picks.

One way is a path to success, the other is a path to prolonged failure.

So now the Detroit shill beat writers like Khan have been told to put out **** about Mrazek's "attitude".

That could only have come from Holland. What other team beats up on its own players like the current RedWings?

Holland can't or won't take ownership of his own mistakes. So he blames it now on Mrazek, and previously on AA and "Spare Parts" Mantha.

The Wings are going nowhere with Grandpa at the helm and Blabhill doing a poor imitation of the guy who beat it out of here on the road to Toronto.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

This season? Hell no. Last season? No. Season before that? Yes. 100 points and a competitive playoff performance is doing "well" unless you're a team going all-in for the cup.

Intermixed with the other first round exists, I'm not sure how you can qualify that season as doing "well". Like 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017 you see a team unable to get past the first round.

A 13-23 playoff record over the past 6 seasons with one series win and a playoff miss with the team's core in their 30s is not the sign of a team looking to contend going forward. Holland's goal should not be focused on getting playoff games in 2018.

 

[Flowah]

If the franchise is sinking towards the NHL bottom, that means highest overall picks. Aren't you tankers wanting exactly that?

We're going there too slowly, lengthening the time we have to spend in purgatory.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Ten years of not trading first rd picks or many picks overall and result is two players of value now

Martha and Larkin

Not the best endorsement of his plan.

 

[HockeyinHD]

A 13-23 playoff record over the past 6 seasons with one series win and a playoff miss with the team's core in their 30s is not the sign of a team looking to contend going forward.

'Doing well' /= 'looking to contend going forward.'

This is the same ol' story. Having had 25+ years of incredible success, falling back into a level of accomplishment that most of the rest of the NHL would view as fine will obviously seem pale by comparison.

Holland's goal should not be focused on getting playoff games in 2018.

Why not? They aren't going to be bad enough to be in the top 3, or even the top 5. If they have a decent enough team, the guys on it will have more value than they would if the whole team sucked. If Nyquist or Green or Howard or Mrazek or Sheahan has a strong year that pushes the team towards success Holland would be able to move those guys for more either at the deadline or in the offseason.

 

[jkutswings]

'Doing well' /= 'looking to contend going forward.'

This is the same ol' story. Having had 25+ years of incredible success, falling back into a level of accomplishment that most of the rest of the NHL would view as fine will obviously seem pale by comparison.

Because there's a big difference between a team like Toronto, who was near the playoff bubble due to its best players being young, and learning to win, yet still has years left to build around their core for championship contention, and a team like Detroit, who was near the playoff bubble due to its best players being old, and past any realistic window of championship contention.

If one guy buys a loaf of bread, and another guy snatches a loaf of bread while robbing a party store, they absolutely each have a loaf of bread. But that doesn't mean the circumstances of acquiring it aren't very important.

Why not? They aren't going to be bad enough to be in the top 3, or even the top 5. If they have a decent enough team, the guys on it will have more value than they would if the whole team sucked. If Nyquist or Green or Howard or Mrazek or Sheahan has a strong year that pushes the team towards success Holland would be able to move those guys for more either at the deadline or in the offseason.

What leads you to believe they're not bottom 5, if not bottom 3? Zetterberg isn't likely to repeat his best season in 5 years, there's currently no solution visible for noticeably improving the defense, and, if the general tone of these boards is any indication, the goaltending will once again be a spectacular failure. Really, without a statistically abnormal performance in the shootout last year, they're already a bottom 5 team right now.

 

[SirloinUB]

Ten years of not trading first rd picks or many picks overall and result is two players of value now

Martha and Larkin

Not the best endorsement of his plan.

This is so disingenuous. They traded their 1st rounder 3 times in the last 10 years (4 times in the last 11!). Further the Jury is still out on the 2 most recent picks (Svech and Cholo). That's half of your 10 year measuring stick where it's either too early to judge or they didn't have a first round pick.

Smith is an NHL player and the deadline proved he had value via the picks he returned. And while Sheahan struggled, teams still had interest at the deadline and most haven't completely written him off. McCollum was the only bust in your window.




Really they have only gone 4 years without trading their 1st and all of those picks have already made an impact or still have promise.

Not the worst endorsement for his plan.

 

[jkutswings]

Scott Cullen from TSN did an analysis of each draft slot, from 1990 to 2013, looking at how well it panned out, assigning a 1-10 grade, and calculating an average for the 24 year period. Very similar to the work that Frk It has posted here before:

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

To me, it looks like picks 1 and 2 overall are Tier 1A, 3 overall is Tier 1B, picks 4 and 5 are Tier 2, picks 6-14 are Tier 3, and the rest of the first round is Tier 4.

Kinda underscores the fact that very very high picks are the most reliable way to find the best players.

EDIT: It also speaks to the fact that, while it's certainly POSSIBLE to find great players outside of the first round, that STATISTICALLY, it's a pretty rare occurrence.

 

[Flowah]

And you're guaranteed a top4 pick if you finish last. Yippee!

 

[Pavels Dog]

Scott Cullen from TSN did an analysis of each draft slot, from 1990 to 2013, looking at how well it panned out, assigning a 1-10 grade, and calculating an average for the 24 year period. Very similar to the work that Frk It has posted here before:

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

To me, it looks like picks 1 and 2 overall are Tier 1A, 3 overall is Tier 1B, picks 4 and 5 are Tier 2, and the rest of the first round is Tier 3.

Kinda underscores the fact that very very high picks are the most reliable way to find the best players.

And to guarantee a top 5 pick you have to finish bottom 2 if I'm not mistaken. We won't be worse than LV no matter what, and Colorado's also a complete tirefire. We could be right there in the fight for 3rd worst this season, but it's going to come down to lottery luck no matter what.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

This is so disingenuous. They traded their 1st rounder 3 times in the last 10 years (4 times in the last 11!). Further the Jury is still out on the 2 most recent picks (Svech and Cholo). That's half of your 10 year measuring stick where it's either too early to judge or they didn't have a first round pick.

Smith is an NHL player and the deadline proved he had value via the picks he returned. And while Sheahan struggled, teams still had interest at the deadline and most haven't completely written him off. McCollum was the only bust in your window.




Really they have only gone 4 years without trading their 1st and all of those picks have already made an impact or still have promise.

Not the worst endorsement for his plan.

Sorry but trading out of the first rd still counts because you had that pick, you didn't trade it for a roster player like the quincey deal.

We went into those drafts with the pick and reading down was PART of his plan

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Wings are already locked into the 6-12th overall range next year with the putrid lineup they are going to be icing.

Fingers crossed the rest of their pathetic division starts to actually improve so the Wings improve their odds of getting a top three pick.

There is no chance in hell this roster makes the playoffs, and any GM that thinks it is capable of doing so lives in a fantasy land.

Last season will be the status quo for the next couple of years. Then the Wings will finally bottom out when Zetterberg retires and the Wings can actually start rebuilding. Hopefully the organization is cleaned out by then and people with functioning brains are brought in to oversee the rebuild.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Because there's a big difference between a team like Toronto, who was near the playoff bubble due to its best players being young, and learning to win, yet still has years left to build around their core for championship contention, and a team like Detroit, who was near the playoff bubble due to its best players being old, and past any realistic window of championship contention.

Yes. One team sucked for 15 years to get there, the other hasn't, and the one that did might not actually ever get much beyond the point they're at now, anyway.

What leads you to believe they're not bottom 5, if not bottom 3?

They weren't last year?

Hey, if your argument is that Mantha, Larkin, AA, Mrazek, DK, Sheahan, Abdelkader and Helm are all going to be as bad as they were last year and Z is going to be worse... maybe. Even post-Vanek they were 8-10-2, which isn't going to get anyone in the bottom 5.

Personally, I think Detroit has too many decent NHL players in their system to ever get bad enough to be in the top 5 without some real help from outside circumstances. Not enough really good players to crack the top 10 either.

And LV is going to be a dumpster fire next year, too. Add them to Colorado and Vancouver and the bottom 3 is filled 3 months before the season starts. NJ isn't going to try to win, and they're worse than Detroit. That's the bottom 4.

So, we've got Arizona, Dallas, Buffalo, Florida, plus any other surprise teams that sink like a stone... and that's just to land the 5th pick, which isn't anything to write home about most years anyway.

Enh. Not looking good for you tanker types.

 

[jkutswings]

Agree to disagree, I guess. I think it's entirely possible, even probable, that both New Jersey and Vegas are better than Detroit. Vegas plays in a weaker division, and landed a better overall defense and goaltender than the Wings have. New Jersey is a very bad team, but has the giant question mark of how much (or how little) whomever they select at #1 will improve things. (And it's not like they'll need another 10-15 wins to pass Detroit; they were only 9 points back, after the Wings went nuts in the shootout.)

I expect Detroit to be even or a few points worse. I expect a few teams to be at least a few points better.

 

[Frk It]

Personally, I think Detroit has too many decent NHL players in their system to ever get bad enough to be in the top 5 without some real help from outside circumstances. Not enough really good players to crack the top 10 either.

You do realize they had the 3rd fewest ROW's in the NHL last year????

 

[SirloinUB]

Sorry but trading out of the first rd still counts because you had that pick, you didn't trade it for a roster player like the quincey deal.

We went into those drafts with the pick and reading down was PART of his plan

Trading down was him reacting to the prospects available to him. To assume he went into the draft planning on trading down is a huge leap leap lacking supporting evidence. I reject your unverified assumptions.

Further it really doesnt matter. The Red Wings strategy did not involve keeping their 1st rounders until 4 years ago. Spin it how you like but the fact is they didn't keep the picks so they haven't been operating under a "keep the picks" philosophy for the last decade as you are trying to insulate. Its simply untrue.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

You do realize they had the 3rd fewest ROW's in the NHL last year????

It seems like many people didn't notice how few ROWs they had. Plus they were perfect in the shootout in the worst possible season for that to happen.