News Article: Inside Ken Holland's challenge of rebuilding the Red Wings on the fly

[Run the Jewels]

ESPN just lost their best coverage of the Wings when they lost Custance, FYI

Yeah I haven't bothered to read Khan or HSJ in the longest. Custance is a legit hockey journalist.

 

[Petes2424]

I'm glad somebody in the media has the fortitude to call out Ken Holland. These quotes demonstrate how he has absolutely lost touch. He had a good 20-year run. It's time to step aside and let someone who better understands the current landscape take over.

Sports radio used to call out the teams but they've aligned themselves with the teams over the years and we see little of it anymore. Detroit media is about as soft as it gets. Good to see. Promoted on NHL radio this morning also....

 

[Syckle78]

Wdfn used to rip on them pretty good between 99 and 02 when the station was at it's peak. But then the all the big names moved to stations that had the rights to the games so the actual critiquing stopped. I don't really listen anymore but I'm guessing 97.1 doesn't really question Holland or ownership much?

 

[izlez]

So what exactly is your plan for acquiring multiple, elite talents while continuing the rebuild-on-the-fly-experiment? More specifically, how do we do it in a time frame that still captures the best, most productive years of Larkin, Mantha and AA and without executing any trades?

My plan is to draft good players and sign good players and feel free to make good trades that improve the team. It is certainly questionable if Holland has the ability to do that.

It is not necessary to tank to do that. I don't know why so many fans are stuck on that and cheer for that to be the only option

 

[izlez]

Bottoming out is the ONLY option.
The retool on the fly is ONLY possible when you have the core drafted already (hate to say it, Crosby, Malkin).
Any other way is just a ridiculous pandering to the gullible.

Again, if San Jose and Nashville are not the definition of "meandering around the playoff bubble for years and years while star veterans age and never tanking for a top pick....and then reaching the stanley cup finals"..... I'm not sure what to tell you.

Aside from that. Sure, I'd love to tank for Crosby and Malkin. But we don't have a time machine and those guys got drafted in the mid 2000's. And I don't see tanking for Tavares, Mackinnon, Stamkos, Ovechkin really working.

 

[izlez]

You lost me at slightly better assets. Lol you can't be serious.

I didn't mean that "Josi and Subban are only slightly better than Jonathan Ericsson"

I meant they have had two top-10 picks in the last 10+ years, and those guys are far from the one's leading them to the cup final.

 

[Frk It]

Building a team for top five picks? I'd move Green at the draft for a mid-first, move Nyquist and Tatar. Trade Abby and Helm if anyone will take them. I'd trade any player older than 25 that could get me anything of value...starting with the most valuable pieces and working my way to the least valuable (keep Z though...I couldn't ever look at myself in the mirror for trading Z unless he requests it). Obviously you need to be able to ice a full team so you can't move everyone, but move players until Lil' Bert, Nosek, Svech, Jensen, XO, and Sproul are all full-timers, then move a few more. I'd tell Blashill either he plays the kids the most, and lets vets like Z ride out their years on the third line...or Nelson is the coach and Blash is looking for work. I might fire Blash anyway because I think Nelson is better at developing the kids...but Blash is really good at losing so he's almost an asset to a tank. Regardless tell the coach to treat the team like they would a development team. Their job isn't to win. It's to develop the kids into better players.

I'd make bargain reclamation free agent signings (to fill out my now somewhat empty roster) with the hope that they'd over-perform and move them at the deadline (or earlier even). Any non-core player that does well gets moved to the highest bidder. Be very aggressive with trades. If someone offers an 18 year old D that I genuinely think will play on the first line when he's 20 for AA...then I begrudgingly trade AA. He was someone I wanted to build around but I got a piece that will help more in 3 years when I actually need it. Obviously I have to get what I think is fair value though. I have to be very confident in a prospect to consider moving a player that I wanted to build around.

If we outperformed with that system then I'd have to determine why before I'd decide how to move forward. If we outperformed because Sproul, XO, Larkin, Svech, Mantha AA etc are carrying the team then I'd be ecstatic that I secretly had elite talent and didn't realize it. I'd try to address our now substantially fewer needs through the draft and even free agency if I genuinely think we overperformed due to young elite talent stepping up and having a core that's genuinely a couple of pieces away. I believe in our ability to get one or two core pieces with ~15 OA/trades/free agency.

If we over-perform because we're shootout gods that survived until OT well, Z had 70 points and Howard has a resurgence and eaks out way too many 2-1 wins despite getting outshot 40-20...I'd stick to the plan, lament my too low pick but trade the vets and use my good year as justification for getting better picks/prospects for them. Don't become attached to a journeyman who had a career year and won you some games. Let him win those games for someone else and get a pick in return. He'll probably fall back to Earth anyway and you don't want to be the one who paid him top dollar.

IMO embracing the youth and getting as many (high) picks as possible is the only realistic way to build a core. When we already have a core, or the vast majority of one, then you can try to address that last need through other avenues...but until we have a core (and right now we absolutely do not) then you stick to the tank.

Thanks for taking the time to write that out. I like seeing more detail than just "we need to tank" or "we need to be bad".

 

[ArGarBarGar]

See: San Jose Sharks and Nashville Predators.
Both teams were bubblish teams for years and years and then made it to the stanley cup. Sure, they had some slightly better assets here and there. But it's not like Ryan Johansen MADE their team or a Ryan Johansen level player is impossible to find.
And then of course look at all the teams that have tanked for years and years and still are at the bottom of the standings.

Would you not consider teams like Nashville and San Jose to be anomalies? Nashville used a top-5 draft pick asset in Jones to land Johansen and were incredibly lucky with their top-two defensemen being acquired through second round assets (Weber to Subban and Josi), and San Jose acquired their two best players through trades that are incredibly rare (a top pairing defenseman being traded prior to free agency who turned out to be a top-5 defenseman in the game and one of the best playmakers ever being shipped off for middling players). I would rather acquire the best talent through the most tired and true method, which is something we can't do if Holland pushes for the playoffs every year.

Exactly.

All fans and sports media try to be the smartest guy in the room. Complain about losing young and inexpensive guys while not worrying about actual talent.

Holland's problem isn't that he is favoring Ericsson or Howard over Sproul or Mrazek so that he can save cap space. It's that he hasn't found any players better than Ericsson or Howard in 10 years

Holland's problem involves both. His drafting isn't nearly as good anymore now that the Hakan effect is mitigated (which means to get the talent he wants he is going to have to sink lower than he has ever needed to go), and his asset management is garbage which has in turn made Detroit into a completely unwanted destination for free agents and could keep the team in limbo for a number of years.

 

[SirloinUB]

Would you not consider teams like Nashville and San Jose to be anomalies? Nashville used a top-5 draft pick asset in Jones to land Johansen and were incredibly lucky with their top-two defensemen being acquired through second round assets (Weber to Subban and Josi), and San Jose acquired their two best players through trades that are incredibly rare (a top pairing defenseman being traded prior to free agency who turned out to be a top-5 defenseman in the game and one of the best playmakers ever being shipped off for middling players). I would rather acquire the best talent through the most tired and true method, which is something we can't do if Holland pushes for the playoffs every year.

The counter to this is that things can and do change very quickly in the NHL. Guy's who are unavailable now, could suddenly be available a year from now. I'm not saying we should plan on Erik Karlsson falling into our laps but its not like we didn't just witness a highly talented player go from borderline untouchable to disposable in less than a year.

 

[Syckle78]

I didn't mean that "Josi and Subban are only slightly better than Jonathan Ericsson"

I meant they have had two top-10 picks in the last 10+ years, and those guys are far from the one's leading them to the cup final.

Nashville has better assets period. They have more talent at better positions at better ages than we have and it's not even close. It goes far beyond top ten picks. Holland has shown he can't get it done through drafting late,free agency or trading. Holland apologist should be praying for a rebuild. Because it's the last thing he hasn't failed at and only chance to redeem himself.

 

[Frk It]

The counter to this is that things can and do change very quickly in the NHL. Guy's who are unavailable now, could suddenly be available a year from now. I'm not saying we should plan on Erik Karlsson falling into our laps but its not like we didn't just witness a highly talented player go from borderline untouchable to disposable in less than a year.

You mean suddenly become available to the entire league, in which case you are looking at a 1/30th chance of landing? When trades haven't been our forte, and we are no longer a UFA destination.

I believe the former NHL exec said it best in the article in the OP

Use free agency to eventually land a franchise player: In my opinion, this is a sucker’s bet that many rebuilding teams fall into,

 

[HisNoodliness]

Thanks for taking the time to write that out. I like seeing more detail than just "we need to tank" or "we need to be bad".

No problem. I'm glad you appreciate it. Tanking is very far from a sure thing and doing it properly isn't necessarily easy. I definitely think that having a detailed plan and a good contingency plan for various situations like over-performing or getting offers for your young players is necessary. Honestly the biggest worry I have with our team is the very real possibility that we don't truly start rebuilding until Larkin, Mantha etc. have aged themselves out of being useful. We have a decent start to our next core. It's not great and definitely needs a lot of work but we have some decent pieces. It will be really sad if we squander it by waiting too long.

 

[SirloinUB]

You mean suddenly become available to the entire league, in which case you are looking at a 1/30th chance of landing? When trades haven't been our forte, and we are no longer a UFA destination.

I believe the former NHL exec said it best in the article in the OP

1/30th is the same odds as everyone else. And while Holland has been relatively trade adverse, the circumstances around his team have changed drastically over the last 2-3 years. The Mrazek situation is direct evidence of how quickly things can change, even in one of the most conservative front office's going.

The Habs just traded a 9th overall draft choice (less than a year removed from his draft) for a stud like Drouin. To assume, a similar move is out of the completely out of realm of possibility is nothing more than willful ignorance. Again my point is not assuming a stud like Drouin falls into our lap but rather the fundamentally unpredictable nature of player availability, be it a trade, free agent or prospect development.

 

[Frk It]

1/30th is the same odds as everyone else. And while Holland has been relatively trade adverse, the circumstances around his team have changed drastically over the last 2-3 years.

The Habs just traded a 9th overall draft choice (less than a year removed from his draft) for a stud like Drouin.

And...?

 

[ArGarBarGar]

The Habs just traded a 9th overall draft choice (less than a year removed from his draft) for a stud like Drouin.

I don't think it is fair to pass judgement on that trade yet considering the ages of both parties involved.

But either way, another singular anecdote does not demonstrate the propensity of such an event happening.

 

[jkutswings]

I'll consider Detroit as having equal chances of landing an elite free agent when somebody gives me a reason to consider the current Red Wings as having any advantages to offer.

Last I checked, Stamkos didn't even answer the phone, let alone get close to coming here. (And that was before this latest debacle of a season!) So unless a Tavares or a Doughty or an OEL suddenly thinks that a lousy team with a shiny new arena is the perfect way to wind down their career, I don't see that changing much.

In all likelihood, the Wings will continue to be eligible for second tier players and reclamation projects like Vanek, but nobody that could really move the needle. Which, if they manage to keep landing that echelon of free agents (while somehow continuing to find the financial maneuvering to do so), should just maintain their purgatory of being at or just below bubble status.

Hip hip hooray.

 

[sepster]

My main issue with Custance's (and many others) proposed gameplan, is that Holland has to be willing to take risks. This point in particular:

The better move is to draft loads of defensemen now and use them as trade chips later to land players of Drouin’s caliber in a couple years when Detroit is ready to seriously compete.

Holland had those chips when Oullette (QMJHL 1st Team All-Star '12 & '13), Jensen (WCHA 1st Team All-Star '13), Sproul (OHL 1st Team All-Star '13) and DeKeyser (All-CCHA 1st Team '13) were respectively the best defensemen in their leagues. At the time defense was a perceived position of strength, yet did he use that resource to make moves and fill gaps elsewhere in the organization? No.

Go further back than that when we had a glut of highly skilled 5'10", 180 lb forwards (Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Filppula, Hudler, Williams, etc.) but no true power forwards or rugged Dmen. Did he make a move then? No.

Instead, Holland has a history of hoarding prospects or roster players past the period of perceived value and then losing them for nothing either through free agency or waivers.

I'll admit, Holland does well accumulating seemingly good assets. But, he also has shown to be essentially incompetent in managing those same assets.

 

[Pavels Dog]

My main issue with Custance's (and many others) proposed gameplan, is that Holland has to be willing to take risks. This point in particular:



Holland had those chips when Oullette (QMJHL 1st Team All-Star '12 & '13), Jensen (WCHA 1st Team All-Star '13), Sproul (OHL 1st Team All-Star '13) and DeKeyser (All-CCHA 1st Team '13) were respectively the best defensemen in their leagues. At the time defense was a perceived position of strength, yet did he use that resource to make moves and fill gaps elsewhere in the organization? No.

Go further back than that when we had a glut of highly skilled 5'10", 180 lb forwards (Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Filppula, Hudler, Williams, etc.) but no true power forwards or rugged Dmen. Did he make a move then? No.

Instead, Holland has a history of hoarding prospects or roster players past the period of perceived value and then losing them for nothing either through free agency or waivers.

I'll admit, Holland does well accumulating seemingly good assets. But, he also has shown to be essentially incompetent in managing those same assets.

He acquired Quincey and Eric Cole (could have been more than a rental if he stayed healthy). Fits the profile of your requested trades, no? Obviously you don't get established, elite talent by trading a 2nd or 5th or 7th round prospect, even if that prospect is performing well in a junior league. We're not talking about a bunch of Sergachevs here.

 

[Reddwit]

My main issue with Custance's (and many others) proposed gameplan, is that Holland has to be willing to take risks. This point in particular:

I don't see how that's an issue with the proposed gameplan so much as it is with the GM. If Holland continues doing (or not doing) anything to rectify our many problems, we'll eventually get a GM who will.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

No problem. I'm glad you appreciate it. Tanking is very far from a sure thing and doing it properly isn't necessarily easy. I definitely think that having a detailed plan and a good contingency plan for various situations like over-performing or getting offers for your young players is necessary. Honestly the biggest worry I have with our team is the very real possibility that we don't truly start rebuilding until Larkin, Mantha etc. have aged themselves out of being useful. We have a decent start to our next core. It's not great and definitely needs a lot of work but we have some decent pieces. It will be really sad if we squander it by waiting too long.

This is without question the greatest risk of the continued rebuild on the fly strategy and something that none of the Holland supporters ever discuss. It has the potential to become a gigantic hamster wheel. While we may find an elite player drafting between 7-12 each year for the next decade, one is not enough. Not only do we need to find multiple elite talents, we need to do so in a condensed window that allows the elite players to become effective NHL players before our current players age out or hit free agency. Time is very much of the essence with the on-the-fly strategy.

 

[Henkka]

Best prospects Holland has traded away:

1998:
Petr Sykora (1997 3rd round pick) --> Nashville
Doug Brown --> Detroit
- this weaker Sykora did have 12-game NHL career.

Ryan Bach (1992 11th round pick) --> LA Kings
conditional pick --> DET
- Bach did have 3-game NHL career.

1999:
Anders Eriksson (1993 1st round pick) --> Chicago
Chris Chelios --> DET
- Eriksson played 572 NHL-game career, but pretty much busted instantly after his decent 1998 Stanley Cup run.

2000:
Philippe Audet (1995 2nd round pick) --> Phoenix
Todd Gill --> Detroit
- Audet had 4-game NHL career.

Yan Golubovsky (1994 1st round pick) --> Florida
Igor Larionov --> DET
- Golubovsky had 56-game NHL career.

2001:
Vyacheslav Kozlov was 29-year old proven NHL player, so I don't count him as a young player. Traded for Generational talent Dominik Hasek. But Kozlov is the best player Holland has ever traded away. Kozzie played 1182 games in NHL and scored 853 points. Saw only 4 playoff games after leaving Detroit, though. 114 playoff games and 42+37 = 79 playoff-points at Detroit.

Aaron Ward was 28-year old when he was traded away.

2002:
Yuri Butsayev (1997 2nd round pick) --> Atlanta
Jiri Slegr --> DET
- Butsayev had 99-game NHL career.

2003:
Maxim Kuznetsov (1995 1st round pick) --> LA Kings
Sean Avery (23-yeal old free agent signing) --> LA Kings
Mathieu Schneider --> DET
- Kuznetsov had 136-game NHL career and Avery was ultimate pest even hated of his teammates. Hanged out 580 games in NHL.

2004:
Tomas Fleischmann (2002 2nd round pick) --> Washington
Robert Lang --> DET
- Fleischmann has been so far the best young player Holland has traded away. Had 657 NHL games and 335 points = 0.51 p/g player. Did hit 50-point mark 6 seasons after the trade.

2007:
Jason Williams was 26-year old, former free agent signing Holland traded for Kyle Calder. Not especially a young player.

Shawn Matthias (2006 2nd round pick) --> Florida
Todd Bertuzzi --> DET
- Matthias is still in NHL, and has played Bottom6 -role for 524 games. His career high season is 27 point. Bertuzzi scored 40 points/82 games -pace at Detroit.

2010:
Ville Leino (25-year old free agent signing) --> Philadelphia
Ole-Kristian Tollefsen + 5th round pick --> DET
- Leino had a hot streak in Philly and cashed a big contract from Buffalo and was bought out and out of NHL three years later. Had 289 NHL-game career and earned 27 million Dollars for 10 goals at Buffalo.

2014:
Calle Järnkrok (2010 2nd round pick) --> Nashville
David Legwand --> DET
- Järnkrok has become a defensive line center for Nashville and has scored 88 points per 248 games (0.35 ppg) on his career. Should have a long career left.

2015:
Mattias Bäckman (2011 5th round pick) --> Dallas
Mattias Janmark (2013 3rd round pick) --> Dallas
Erik Cole --> DET
- once highly hyped Bäckman hasn't got further than AHL. Dallas did already let him walk and he signed to Hershey with an AHL contract. 0 NHL games on his belt.
- Janmark started his career very good, but his already known knee problem became an issue, and has been sidelined since his surgery. Had 29 points on his 73-game rookie season. His knee could be a threat (has 80% chances for full recovery) for his whole career, though.

2016:
Jakub Kindl was 29-year old when traded to Florida, so not a young player/prospect anymore.
- guy is soon out of NHL, probably won't get a contract anywhere at this summer.

2017:
Tomas Jurco (2011 2nd round pick) --> Chicago
3rd round pick --> DET
- never panned out at Detroit, tough to believe anything else will happend at Chicago. Did score 1+0 at 29 games at last season. Has played 172 NHL games so far.

Brendan Smith (2007 1st round pick) --> NY Rangers
2nd + 3rd round picks --> DET
- Smith was 28-year old, so not especially a young talent anymore.


This is his total track record of trades, and I mean prospects/young players --> out from organization.

As we can see, mostly damaged goods or 2nd line players at maximum. Kozlov was the only 1st line talent, but already a veteran and traded for a Franchise Goalie, or probably best of All Time.

 

[Hockeyholic]

" I want the fans to see a playoff game at LCA." Translation: I'll sign over the hill vets, give up picks, sign more ludicrous contracts..all so the owners get playoff revenue.

What it means: This franchise is sinking faster than the Titanic. The owners need to remove this man before the franchise is completely ruined.

 

[Hockeyholic]

" I want the fans to see a playoff game at LCA." Translation: I'll sign over the hill vets, give up picks, sign more ludicrous contracts..all so the owners get playoff revenue.

This franchise has to stop aiming for " Anything can happen" playoff montra. I fear it may be at minimum ten years before a proper rebuild is complete.

 

[LastWordArmy]

Ken Holland's Plan is an Enigma

It’s been just over a week since the end of the Stanley Cup Final, and naturally the off-season rush of activity is percolating. More than half a dozen teams have already have agreed to deals in place with the Vegas Golden Knights but cannot announce them until the NHL Awards are over Wednesday when the Expansion Draft takes place. The Dallas Stars are listening to offers for the third overall pick for Friday’s NHL Draft. Jonathan Drouin‘s trade to Montreal already has a case for blockbuster of the summer just daring other teams to top it.

Then, there are the Detroit Red Wings.

http://lastwordonhockey.com/2017/06/21/ken-holland-plan-red-wings/

 

[Hammettf2b]

meh. tell us something we didn't know