I'd think Killorn will go. A lot depends on the teams he's listed on his no trade list as far as what the return will be. If there's only one or two buyers on his list, the return could be pretty underwhelming.
TBL fans keep talking about Tyler Johnson. First of all, he has a full NTC. 2nd, his AAV is $5 m over the next 4 years. In a COVID, flat cap world, that's a difficult contract to trade even IF he waives for some team. I'd say it would take a considerable amount of luck for TBL to able to move him and would have better luck moving him in 2021 when he goes to a 20-team NMC clause.
Yanni Gourde also has the infamous NTC. His AAV is $5.16 m over the next 5 years. Again, this will be a difficult contract to move IF Gourde waives for some team.
Palat has a NTC as well. His AAV is $5.3 m over just the 2 years. He may draw more interest (he's probably the best player of the group) for a team that sees itself as a contender that is going for it IF he waives his NTC.
Paquette ($1.65 m) and Goodrow's ($925k) contracts are more reasonable, and just have one year of term. So, they could be moved, but that doesn't provide very much cap relief. They could buy out Braydon Coburn, but his salary is just $1.7 m, so not that much relief there ultimately.
Perhaps attaching Goodrow to one the NTC forwards plus adding a reasonable sweetner might help IF one of them can be convinced to waive.
All in all, I'm not seeing this as an ideal situation for the TBL despite whatever bravado their loyal fans project. Something is going to have to happen, and given circumstances, the returns on these trades could be surprising/underwhelming. Most GMs have their own players to subtract as their first priority, so the majority of teams will be trimming payroll to a self-imposed spending limit. Teams will be trying to reduce salary versus pick up more for the most part, and the few buyers that remain will be looking for bargains I'd think.
No bravado needed, just realistic analysis of the situation. The fantasized gutting of the Lightning by so many on here just won't be happening, again...
Killorn will be getting moved, and his return, while perhaps not as great as it would've been in a non-covid world, certainly won't be underwhelming. If even 2 teams are highly motivated to acquire him, his price goes up. Most reasonable people believe he'll get anywhere from a later 1st to a 2nd+3rd, with varying offers in between.
Yes, Johnson does have an ntc. Players have waived them before, even in Tampa, contrary to what some would have people believe. For the very reason you stated, he may be interested in waiving for specific teams now. He knows he is gone after next year, why wait until then and risk having to go to one of 20 teams when he could have much better control over a fresh start somewhere else. Aside from this past season, he is a pretty reliable ~50 point guy who can be on 10-15 teams 2nd lines. His contract isn't that overpaid at all for what he brings, and if the acquiring team didn't like the fit, the ntc still kicks in after one more season. Tampa will likely take underwhelming return here, but to clear the space will be far more important. If Johnson won't budge then Brisebois can play hardball and threaten to waive him, which Johnson won't want as there are teams he probably wouldn't want to go to that would likely claim him.
Gourde and Palat aren't going anywhere. There was some debate a few months ago as to which of the three between Johnson, Gourde, and Palat would be the focus on moving in addition to Killorn, but it's clear now which two should be staying. Gourde was also not moved last Summer by JBB, and he was one of his first big extensions, so can't see him going. Palat proved his worth and then some this season plus playoffs, so he won't be getting asked to waive aside from a very last resort either.
Paquette will be getting traded more than likely, as his 1.65 million will allow Tampa to essentially sign 2 cheaper depth guys on shorr term deals, like Verhaeghe, Stephens, Volkov etc. Tampa could try to keep him, but players such as Goodrow and Coleman are more valuable to hold onto in this price than range. Tampa will likely take a 4th or 5th for him. Goodrow is a key part of the 3rd line and with what he brings relative to his cap hit, can't see Brisebois interested in moving him. There are several options with Coburn, either he can be traded if he waives, he could retire, or Tampa can buy him out/send him down. While the 1.1-1.7 million isn't huge, in multiple models of how the team will look next year, it makes a difference.
No one in Tampa believes the team won't lose some pieces, but we also know how the team has handled these supposed "cap hell" situations the past 5 or 6 years and been more than fine. Tampa isn't tossing big sweeteners to move these contracts as these guys aren't washed up cap dumps with little value. Despite the guarantees and assurances from so many that Tampa will have to do this or will certainly lose that player, it just hasn't been the case with the team under the recent and current leadership(Yzerman/Brisebois). Until these negative returns and scenarios ravage the Lightning, those of us that support them will continue to believe in how the team usually gets things done.
