Speculation: How does Tampa get under the Cap this offseason?

[voyageur]

I like math problems. This is a good one.

I tried to calculate how Tampa could get under the Cap this season.

I think a good way to start is by calling up former GM Steve Yzerman, and offering him Cirelli, Killorn, and Coburn for one of Detroit's forward prospects, like Svetchnikov, Rasmussen or Veleno and a middle round pick. Instantly gives Detroit a 2nd line.

That would save the Lighntning $6.15 million in Cap Space. Move Mc Ilhinney, who is good value for a backup, and you have $7.45 million in additional Cap space. Or $13.783,333 in Cap space, with only 12 players signed.

So how do you make it work?

This is what I came up with.

Sergachev, long term, 6 years 4.5 million AAV, low value, but Sergachev gets paid to stay in Tampa for awhile, which I think he would like.

Cernak, on a $1.75 million AAV 2 year bridge

Shattenkirk staying in Tampa for $1 million

Cal Foote jumps up at $925 000

Bogosian or Schenn for league minimum $700 000

Equals $8.875 million in defensive investment.

4 ELC RFA forwards in Stephens, Volkov, Verhaeghe and Joseph that I gave slighty above their 5% QOs, at a sum of $3.25 million.

Sign a backup goalie at league minimum.

Total salary expenditure $12.825 million.

Leaves the Lightning with roughly $900 000 in Cap Space, with some prospects at forward that could make the jump.

Sound feasible?

Click to read more...

 

[Number 57]

I think Sergachev signs for more than that. Also, Lightning won't deal Cirelli

BriseBois likely already has a trade lined up for at least one of Killorn, Johnson, Palat or Gourde. With how good Gourde has been this post-season I would actually take him on the Habs. They probably need to deal at least 2 of those guys, maybe 3 and they will likely need to acquire some salary back in these deals. That will save them some cap, but will greatly weaken their line-up. If you add in some kids and some minimum salary free agents, they should come in under the cap.

I also wonder if they don't try to trade McDonagh. With enough whealing and dealing with the players mentionned BriseBois should be able to build a decent team under the cap while keeping his core players. But he needs to be working the phone, right now

 

[Flyer lurker]

No.
Cernak should get at least 2.5 and Shat will leave and get more than 1m. Even BOGO should get 1.25-1.5m.
Killorn will get traded.
One NTC has to waive to move.

 

[voyageur]

No.
Cernak should get at least 2.5 and Shat will leave and get more than 1m. Even BOGO should get 1.25-1.5m.
Killorn will get traded.
One NTC has to waive to move.

I wonder if players really try to get raises, at the risk of leaving a team that has repeat potential. What's a better market to play in, that has money to spend? Losing Cirelli/Killorn would be a huge loss, but there's still some prospects on the Lightning farm, and they could get a C prospect back in that trade.

 

[kthx]

4.5 AAV for Sergachev is a steal.
I think no matter what, Tampa is f***ed.

 

[Flyer lurker]

I wonder if players really try to get raises, at the risk of leaving a team that has repeat potential. What's a better market to play in, that has money to spend? Losing Cirelli/Killorn would be a huge loss, but there's still some prospects on the Lightning farm, and they could get a C prospect back in that trade.

I have to think if Cernak wanted to as an rfa get 4m as an offer sheet. Now discount to 2.5-2.75 to stay ok. In your scenario discount to 1.5 and be less with escrow. Would you take that much of a haircut to win and stay in Florida? Good for you if you do, but I am guessing more take the cash.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

I wonder if players really try to get raises, at the risk of leaving a team that has repeat potential. What's a better market to play in, that has money to spend? Losing Cirelli/Killorn would be a huge loss, but there's still some prospects on the Lightning farm, and they could get a C prospect back in that trade.

Players have a limited number of years to maximize their earnings, they may take a small 'hometown' discount but aren't going to lose millions. Look at Leblanc, he gave the Sharks a sweetheart 1yr deal in order to cash in this year to get screwed by the pandemic. I doubt anyone will throw away 2yrs of earnings to wait out for the cap to raise

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Guess the ducks could lend you a hand by taking that cap dump Point off your hands for a mid draft picks


Thank us later

 

[Sparky206]

One NTC has to waive to move.

But who is going to waive in a season where escrow will eat a chunk of their money. If they waive their team friendly salary is now getting taxed in another state so they are taking an escrow hit and tax hit.

 

[McSuper]

Oilers need some help on D and wing . Willing to trade picks and prospect excluding Broberg and Bouchard . Sorry but we need to fix our D and we need our young guys .

 

[bobholly39]

Same as every year - Magic

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Ok well your first mistake is that Detroit trade. You don't trade the guy who just got 4th in Selke votes at age 23 for a bunch of question marks/struggling prospects. At least 15 teams would make much better offers for Cirelli alone. You keep him and give him 1-4 years at 3.5-5M (depending on term). I doubt he signs an offer sheet as who would want to leave a team like Tampa for 1M extra and no GM is dumb enough to offer a 2C 7M *cough* Kevin Hayes *cough*

IMO you bridge all 3 big RFA's, none of them have arbitration rights so that helps.
Sergachev: 4.25-4.5M x 3 years. (based on the Werenski and McAvoy contracts who are both a little bit better players, as well as considerations for state tax and covid).
Cirelli: 3.5 - 5M and 1-4. (I like to use Zibanijad as a good example here, he took a 2 year deal at 2.625M after coming off a 20 goal, 46 point season).
Cernak: 1-2M x 1-2 years. (short term deal, can pay him after expansion).

Shattenkirk is gone, he proved he's worth more than a sub 2M contract and Tampa simply cant afford him

Coburn is probably gone even if they can't move him he won't be making the starting lineup so he will be buried in the minors for a little more than 1M cap space.

I could see Bogo coming back for pretty cheap, he got ice time with the Bolts and was well liked, him and Schenn will be pretty cheap resigns, combined they probably cost less than 2M.

I imagine Paquette is gone too, teams will pay for a player like him, he's very useful but can be replaced with an ELC/league min in Tampa.

Killorn will have to be moved but he should have a pretty good market. Solid 2-way player, can play up and down the line up and kills PK's. Can probably fetch a 2nd and 3rd by himself.

Johnson might waive to a couple places too, with the return of Stamkos he is pretty much stuck on the 4th line, Also he has limited protection next year so may want to choose a place that will protect him in expansion now while also giving him a bigger role.

Doubt Palat is moved, he's fairly important for the top 6 and his contract comes off the books the same summer they need to pay Point.

Gourde is probably impossible to move but that 3rd line chemistry he's had with Goodrow and Coleman has been nice for them, I can understand them being ok with keeping him

 

[Stuzchuk]

I think Sergachev signs for more than that. Also, Lightning won't deal Cirelli

BriseBois likely already has a trade lined up for at least one of Killorn, Johnson, Palat or Gourde. With how good Gourde has been this post-season I would actually take him on the Habs. They probably need to deal at least 2 of those guys, maybe 3 and they will likely need to acquire some salary back in these deals. That will save them some cap, but will greatly weaken their line-up. If you add in some kids and some minimum salary free agents, they should come in under the cap.

I also wonder if they don't try to trade McDonagh. With enough whealing and dealing with the players mentionned BriseBois should be able to build a decent team under the cap while keeping his core players. But he needs to be working the phone, right now

so explain this to me... how is he supposed to "have deal for Killorn, Johnson, Palat or Gourde" when they all have NTC? This summer out of this list only Killorn will have to summit a list of no trade team. The other 3 are still protected for another year or so...

IMO they are in deep shit this summer

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

4.5 AAV for Sergachev is a steal.
I think no matter what, Tampa is f***ed.

4.5 is only a steal at 6 years, at 3 years it's pretty average.

 

[boredmale]

If Tampa gets in cap trouble they have a few guys who make like 4-6M that they could trade without losing that big a step

 

[Henkka]

Killorn + another trade to shed ~4.2M does the thing.

RFAs have to be done with short-term deals.

Replace guys leaving with ELC priced guys.

 

[Henkka]

so explain this to me... how is he supposed to "have deal for Killorn, Johnson, Palat or Gourde" when they all have NTC? This summer out of this list only Killorn will have to summit a list of no trade team. The other 3 are still protected for another year or so...

IMO they are in deep shit this summer

- You go for them to ask if they would void the NTC for some certain team.

- If one say yes, then you have a solution. One of Gourde/Johnson/Palat has agreed to leave.

- If all three say no, then you have to trade Cirelli or Sergachev. IT's quite obvious.

They are not f***ed, but those are the options.

 

[voyageur]

Ok well your first mistake is that Detroit trade. You don't trade the guy who just got 4th in Selke votes at age 23 for a bunch of question marks/struggling prospects. At least 15 teams would make much better offers for Cirelli alone. You keep him and give him 1-4 years at 3.5-5M (depending on term). I doubt he signs an offer sheet as who would want to leave a team like Tampa for 1M extra and no GM is dumb enough to offer a 2C 7M *cough* Kevin Hayes *cough*

IMO you bridge all 3 big RFA's, none of them have arbitration rights so that helps.
Sergachev: 4.25-4.5M x 3 years. (based on the Werenski and McAvoy contracts who are both a little bit better players, as well as considerations for state tax and covid).
Cirelli: 3.5 - 5M and 1-4. (I like to use Zibanijad as a good example here, he took a 2 year deal at 2.625M after coming off a 20 goal, 46 point season).
Cernak: 1-2M x 1-2 years. (short term deal, can pay him after expansion).

Shattenkirk is gone, he proved he's worth more than a sub 2M contract and Tampa simply cant afford him

Coburn is probably gone even if they can't move him he won't be making the starting lineup so he will be buried in the minors for a little more than 1M cap space.

I could see Bogo coming back for pretty cheap, he got ice time with the Bolts and was well liked, him and Schenn will be pretty cheap resigns, combined they probably cost less than 2M.

I imagine Paquette is gone too, teams will pay for a player like him, he's very useful but can be replaced with an ELC/league min in Tampa.

Killorn will have to be moved but he should have a pretty good market. Solid 2-way player, can play up and down the line up and kills PK's. Can probably fetch a 2nd and 3rd by himself.

Johnson might waive to a couple places too, with the return of Stamkos he is pretty much stuck on the 4th line, Also he has limited protection next year so may want to choose a place that will protect him in expansion now while also giving him a bigger role.

Doubt Palat is moved, he's fairly important for the top 6 and his contract comes off the books the same summer they need to pay Point.

Gourde is probably impossible to move but that 3rd line chemistry he's had with Goodrow and Coleman has been nice for them, I can understand them being ok with keeping him

See I see it different, Cirelli has some value, let's say you get Veleno, expansion draft protected. You replace Cirelli in the lineup with Stamkos, hey that's no Selke, but that Goals. Maybe you get a 2nd instead of a mid round picks, as the add on Killorn, with Coburn being the Cap dump. Johnson and Stamkos have some chemistry. Maybe you have to go with Volkov as the winger, though you can bring up Veleno or Barre-Boulet if that doesn't work.

You keep your top line and your 3rd line completely intact. Let Johnson go to Seattle in the expansion draft. I can't see there being a market for him this year. San Jose maybe, but it seems unlikely, given their other needs.

4th line probably Verhaeghe-Paquette-Stephens.

Can't afford to lose Cirelli and Paquette. Both contribute to the PK.


It's just a question of how to manage your defense after that. I think Shattenkirk stays cheap. Maybe Foote stays down an extra year, and you go with two guys near the league minimum. But that doesn't change the picture much. Max you can offer Serg is $5 million, seems like a long term deal is what he wants. He's still only the 3rd best defenseman on the team, and if Brodin is a comparable, he is not at that defensive impact yet, or the minutes.

Cernak probably get a higher RFA value in a different year, but I think it will be hard for agents to push RFAs to their max value. If someone wants to offer sheet him, well the Lightning take the loss, but I think you can take him to arbitration and keep that value down. I don't see him in the $3 million range of offer sheets. I also look at De Angelo as a possible precedent, and he would be almost doubling De Angelo's AAV, who was coming off a 30 point season.

Conceivably the Lightning could keep their defense together after their run, which is something to build on chemistry wise. Keeps them in a strong position for next season, with the health of Stamkos being the biggest concern.

It's the easiest way I see for the Lightning, who have to do some work once the bubble bursts.

 

[Stuzchuk]

- You go for them to ask if they would void the NTC for some certain team.

- If one say yes, then you have a solution. One of Gourde/Johnson/Palat has agreed to leave.

- If all three say no, then you have to trade Cirelli or Sergachev. IT's quite obvious.

They are not f***ed, but those are the options.

and if they get offersheets for both Sergachev & Cirelli, they cant do shit about it

 

[Henkka]

See I see it different, Cirelli has some value, let's say you get Veleno, expansion draft protected. You replace Cirelli in the lineup with Stamkos, hey that's no Selke, but that Goals. Maybe you get a 2nd instead of a mid round picks, as the add on Killorn, with Coburn being the Cap dump. Johnson and Stamkos have some chemistry. Maybe you have to go with Volkov as the winger, though you can bring up Veleno or Barre-Boulet if that doesn't work.

You keep your top line and your 3rd line completely intact. Let Johnson go to Seattle in the expansion draft. I can't see there being a market for him this year. San Jose maybe, but it seems unlikely, given their other needs.

Think Yzerman could be that smart, that he convinces Tyler Johnson to come Detroit for a year, especially if he wins a Cup at Tampa. Then he negotiates the situation for him to be the guy lost from Detroit in Seattle expansion.

Tampa is gonna pay for Detroit about this favor and then Seattle is gonna pay again, that they'll get a better local player for their team, instead of some crap guy from Detroit. Detroit could easily protect Johnson, but if the big plan all the time on Johnson's mind is Seattle, this would be easily done.

 

[Henkka]

and if they get offersheets for both Sergachev & Cirelli, they cant do shit about it

Then you leave either of them walk and take the compensation picks.

It's a "trade".

They get value back. They can use those picks again to bolster the team at the deadline.

Whatever the world is just full of options.

 

[voyageur]

Think Yzerman could be that smart, that he convinces Tyler Johnson to come Detroit for a year, especially if he wins a Cup at Tampa. Then he negotiates the situation for him to be the guy lost from Detroit in Seattle expansion.

Tampa is gonna pay for Detroit about this favor and then Seattle is gonna pay again, that they'll get a better local player for their team, instead of some crap guy from Detroit. Detroit could easily protect Johnson, but if the big plan all the time on Johnson's mind is Seattle, this would be easily done.

Why does Detroit do this? Yzerman is smart. Why does Johnson do this?

I mean you could have

Mantha-Larkin-Bertuzzi
Killorn-Cirelli-Zadina as a real good 2nd line
Fabbri-Nielsen-Helm/Rasmussen?

6 of those players are worth protecting going forward. Though Mantha could also be trade bait. Rasmussen could be 7.

Have to rebuild that defense and find a goalie, which isn't so hard. But it's Stevie Y, I think he is trying to build a contender before Larkin walks. If anyone builds good hockey teams, it's him, just look at the Lightning.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

and if they get offersheets for both Sergachev & Cirelli, they cant do shit about it

You dont really understand how offer sheets work do you.

 

[Henkka]

Why does Detroit do this? Yzerman is smart. Why does Johnson do this?

Yzerman does it because that works with Detroit's future. He gets paid twice.

Tampa Bay will pay an incentive for Detroit getting Johnson.

I think Johnson as an individual could like to have an "off year" after a Cup win. He has a had a lot of injuries, and season at Tampa would mean another playoff push again at 2021. One off-season without playoffs could do wonders for his later career. He knows that his next real stop is Seattle.

Then Seattle pays for Detroit to get Johnson. Important local guy. Just like there was those fixed deals on Vegas-expansion.

Maybe Yzerman will send Erne back, so Tampa will get cheap depth guy.

 

[Stuzchuk]

You dont really understand how offer sheets work do you.

you dont understand the concept of a "win now mode", do you?