Value of: High end package from New Jersey

[dgibb10]

Not going to hijack the thread by continuing to reply beyond just letting you know that you've been pretty thoroughly misled about the whole situation here by folks who are more interested in causing speculation about players they want poached from here rather than actually getting the story right.

* * *​

Except when they're Cody Schneider.

If we're looking at a Cory Schneider comp it's the other boston goalie

26 year old, not into a full starter role but fantastic numbers. (Schneider was 1st in GAA and Save% over the previous 3 years)

 

[Viqsi]

If we're looking at a Cory Schneider comp it's the other boston goalie

26 year old, not into a full starter role but fantastic numbers. (Schneider was 1st in GAA and Save% over the previous 3 years)

True; I wasn't going to suggest trading that for Ullmark. Just responding to a badly constructed argument.

 

[AngryMilkcrates]

Things people need to know when tossing around Ullmark in trade ideas:

He loves it in Boston and does not want to move. So he will use his -->
M-NTC - 2023-24: 16 team no trade list. 2024-25: 15 team no-trade list.
He controls where he wants to go both this summer and next TDL.

Boston already has a rookie goaltender ready for NHL duty in Brandon Bussi.
He is much cheaper than Linus on an ELC and may not get as many wins but if they need the cap space for a big move at a young 1C and/or top pairing D then they may need room. So any deal with a goaltender coming back to Boston is unlikely.

Boston is aging and and old team so they are desperate.
Bruins average age according to Left Wing Lock is which puts them dead center of the NHL rankings. Brad Marchand is 35, Charlie Coyle is 31, then there are a few 30s. The majority of the roster is 19-28.
The "Boston Core is Old" idea is a myth.

Linus is unlikely to be packaged alone.
Boston does not HAVE to move Ullmark. He fits in great here and the only reason there has been any talk about him being moved is Bostons Goaltender depth coupled with the cap hit both he and Swayman will be together after Jeremy gets his new contract. Swayman is the B's goaltender going forward and unless he wants to leave Boston and tells Don Sweeney to trade him I don't see him getting moved for anyone not named McDavid, MacKinnon, or Draisaitl.(No I am not equating him to those 3 players, Swaymans value to the organization now and moving forward makes his tradeability HIGHLY unlikely.) If Boston is going to trade Linus it will be for a big return for a team need. Ullmark alone will not get them this. He will be packaged with a player and prospect, maybe a pick(BOS is running out of them) for a larger return. So no small deal ideas.

Just some food for thought for those who generally are serious about deal theory-crafting around Linus Ullmark. Who, IMO, would be great for New Jersey or any young team looking to take the next step by upgrading their goaltender depth.

 

[HitterD]

They'd need a younger legit starting goalie to put 9th on the table, I doubt the even consider trading it for Markstrom.

Don’t disagree, and yet if I’m the flames and I end up with a Holtz-level player with that 9th pick in the draft, I’m super disappointed.

I think all this really highlights is that to get a younger elite-level goaltender than Markstrom, NJ will need to give up a lot more than just the 9th pick.

The 2024 1st round pick is a nice trade chip but I’m not sure it gets the goaltender NJ is looking for alone.

 

[dgibb10]

Don’t disagree, and yet if I’m the flames and I end up with a Holtz-level player with that 9th pick in the draft, I’m super disappointed.

I think all this really highlights is that to get a younger elite-level goaltender than Markstrom, NJ will need to give up a lot more than just the 9th pick.

The 2024 1st round pick is a nice trade chip but I’m not sure it gets the goaltender NJ is looking for alone.

If only we had a comparable of an elite 26 year old goalie being traded for the 9th overall pick

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Not going to hijack the thread by continuing to reply beyond just letting you know that you've been pretty thoroughly misled about the whole situation here by folks who are more interested in causing speculation about players they want poached from here rather than actually getting the story right.

* * *​

Except when they're Cory Schneider.

Forgot about that one, I still don't think Ullmark gets a top 10 pick.

 

[HitterD]

If only we had a comparable of an elite 26 year old goalie being traded for the 9th overall pick

Pretty old comparable, and just because that was fair value for Vancouver back then doesn’t mean current teams feel it is fair value for their young elite goaltenders. I doubt Nashville and Boston (or their fans) agree that the 9th pick alone is enough to part with their goaltenders, but I’ll admit I’m wrong if it happens

 

[Viqsi]

Forgot about that one, I still don't think Ullmark gets a top 10 pick.

Probably not. It just amuses me because, y'know, we are talking about a New Jersey ninth overall pick, and there's that one very specific precedent there.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

They desperately need a a LHD that is well above average in his own end that can play physical and a legit starting goalie. All those assets should be on the table as well as Mercer, Casey and future picks. Maybe they shouldn't move Siegenthaler though, just get someone better to eat the harder minutes and let him play lower where he belongs.

Obviously Mercer should only go if the aforementioned defender is headed to the Devils, I wouldn't expect him to go for a goalie unless it's straight across 1-1

Brendan Dillon sounds like a fit, might be available in free agency don't know if the Jets will be able to fit him under the cap

 

[Viqsi]

Pretty old comparable, and just because that was fair value for Vancouver back then doesn’t mean current teams feel it is fair value for their young elite goaltenders. I doubt Nashville and Boston (or their fans) agree that the 9th pick alone is enough to part with their goaltenders, but I’ll admit I’m wrong if it happens

Speaking as a Preds fan, I would hesitate on principle, and only consider it when I saw who was available there.

 

[Iwishihadaspacebar]

Saros, Schenn and possibly a pick (like Winnipeg's 2nd) for Holtz and the NJD 1st rounder.

Saros is a UFA next summer so gets a chance or a payday. Askarov is seemingly on the cusp of the NHL.

A RD core of Hamilton/Marino/Schenn/Nemec will mean the Devils could trade Marino (when Hamilton is healthy) for other areas.

Nashville get another good young player as well as a mid-1st.

 

[dgibb10]

Pretty old comparable, and just because that was fair value for Vancouver back then doesn’t mean current teams feel it is fair value for their young elite goaltenders. I doubt Nashville and Boston (or their fans) agree that the 9th pick alone is enough to part with their goaltenders, but I’ll admit I’m wrong if it happens

Goalies were valued more back then.

4 goalies making 10% of the cap+. Next season there will be just 2 goalies (Vasy and Bob)

Just 5 goalies next year will take up 7.5% of the cap (Bob, Vasy, Helle, Sorokin, MAYBE Swayman). And the 2 big ones are old deals.

Back then 14 goalies made at least 7.5% of the cap.

Goalies are getting less and less in trades, going later and later in drafts, and getting less and less money (relative to the cap) than ever before.

We'll have to see how much money Swayman gets as the next big RFA, but the Hellebuyuck and Sorokin deals did not suggest good things for the goalie market

 

[dgibb10]

Probably not. It just amuses me because, y'know, we are talking about a New Jersey ninth overall pick, and there's that one very specific precedent there.

If I had to place that version of Schneider into today's goalie world

Shesterkin
Hellebuyuck
Schneider
Swayman
Demko

 

[SPV]

I would definitely make that trade for Swayman. We have Ullmark for another year; and could possibly extend him; we have Bussi in the minors, and just signed Bischel. Getting a 1st, Holtz, etc would be a huge boost to our 'prospect' depth.

 

[Nocashstyle]

If the Penguins decide to get a bit more aggressive in their urge to get younger, I could see Marcus Pettersson and Tristan Jarry being very appealing to New Jersey. I think both fit the overall needs of the team quite well and they are of appropriate age and have good contracts.

Several people suggested that something along the lines of Bahl+1st for Pettersson was fair and if the asking price for Markstrom was Holtz+1st, I imagine the price tag on Jarry would be similar.

Pettersson = Bahl + 1st
Jarry = Holtz + 1st

So how about something like:

Bahl, Holtz, Seigenthaler, 1st
for
Pettersson, Jarry

I would also gladly rework the deal if Mercer were available in that package.

I see no world where Jarry fetches a top 10 pick, let alone adding Holtz on top.

The hardest pass imaginable.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Why would the devils, a crappy defensive team with crappy goalies, trade their only quality defensive defenseman?

 

[Viqsi]

Why would the devils, a crappy defensive team with crappy goalies, trade their only quality defensive defenseman?

Marino's sure to bounce back sometime?

 

[Jersey Fresh]

That 2024 1st may be too much for Devils fans to consider moving, especially for a goalie if that's where we are headed with this...and that is totally fair...but I guess I'm really not sold the rest of the potential assets listed constitute that high-end of a package.

- Holtz has not been good in recent games. I have real issues projecting his impact with the lack of high-end foot speed. Others may disagree and I respect that but he's definitely not a favorite of mine.
- Siegenthaler has been poor this year, flat-out. I think he's a perfectly adequate #4/5 pure stay-at-home guy but to expect more than that moving forward? I personally wouldn't.
- Filmon is a nice former 6th round pick with intriguing tools but I'm not sure it's reasonable to expect some sort of massive jump in value at this point.

I'd say take out the 1st and see what you can get for the three other assets listed...maybe a lower pick instead of a possible near top-10 pick added in. It won't get you an elite asset back but it may still be enough to solve the goaltending issue.

Yeah, Holtz definitely isn’t a burner. Hate to go all used car salesman here, but there’s still a lot to like about him as a goal scorer and while the rest of his game might not be where it needs to be, he has come a long way (including in foot speed). It’s a minor miracle he’s on pace for ~15 goals with his usage.

He’s just not a guy that’s going to excel playing 10 minutes with fourth line scrubs. Its wild to me the way the org has tanked his value this season and I really don’t fault the player too much.

 

[Soundgarden]

Saros, Schenn and possibly a pick (like Winnipeg's 2nd) for Holtz and the NJD 1st rounder.

Saros is a UFA next summer so gets a chance or a payday. Askarov is seemingly on the cusp of the NHL.

A RD core of Hamilton/Marino/Schenn/Nemec will mean the Devils could trade Marino (when Hamilton is healthy) for other areas.

Nashville get another good young player as well as a mid-1st.

If we're moving Saris we aren't moving 2nds too.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Speaking as a Preds fan, I would hesitate on principle, and only consider it when I saw who was available there.

I think we're probably still in a holding pattern through the offseason--Trotz keeps him unless it's clear he will not consider an extension or there's an offer that makes it academic. Trading Saros for just a pick that probably doesn't sniff NHL ice for 4-5 seasons would be a tough sell to the players I think after their performance this year.

 

[Leafs87]

The last time the NJDs traded a top 10 pick for a goalie it didn’t work out well for them. Schneider wasn’t anything to scoff at either at ghat point

 

[Bleedred]

Aside from being over worked in like 4 games, Daws has a .918SV% this year...including .950SV% since Lindy was fired for overusing him.

this is getting really weird.

You can literally take out any goalie (even the worst ones in the league) bad stretch of games and say “Well he’s a .920% if you remove those 8 or 10 bad games this year! He should be in the Vezina conversation!”.

It’s really weird.

 

[Bleedred]

The last time the NJDs traded a top 10 pick for a goalie it didn’t work out well for them. Schneider wasn’t anything to scoff at either at ghat point

That’s false.

He was really good, one of the best in the league until he hurt his hip and he was never the same again.

Went from one of the best goalies in the league to shit at 30 years old. His hip was originally misdiagnosed as a groin issue, which is not terribly uncommon for that to happen. So he got surgery on his groin in the summer of 2016. It took back to back decline years (he was fine before that) before they realized it was a hip injury and surgery was needed, which he got in the summer of 2018 and he was never good again, save for a 16 game stretch to end 18-19 that followed a 9 game stretch of .850% to start the season, and the same thing happened to start the next season and he was waived.

It didn’t work out for us because he was an anti-tanking mechanism those first several years, but he was still a really good goalie until the hip problems started at 30 years old. He just fell apart at a young age, which happened to lots of goalies from that generation including, Holtby and to a lesser extent Price.

 

[A1LeafNation]

this is getting really weird.

You can literally take out any goalie (even the worst ones in the league) bad stretch of games and say “Well he’s a .920% if you remove those 8 or 10 bad games this year! He should be in the Vezina conversation!”.

It’s really weird.

Fans and reporters were grilling Ruff hard
on his goalie management right before he got fired.

Yeah weird.

 

[Forge]

If the 9 pick gets moved, I have to think it's only in play for Saros (It would definitely be in play for Swayman, but I don't see Boston moving him).

A first getting moved in any other goalie trade I imagine is like a top 10 protected first in 25.