Speculation: Harkins vs Vesalainen

[Whileee]

I agree we have more information since his draft year. This information is clearly lowering his likely ceiling. I don’t think that can be argued. At least not logically.

If you want me to agree that anything can happen I guess I can do that. I’m not understanding your point. Are you wanting me to look up more players that are on the same path as Ves that didn’t make it and you look look up ones that did, I’m going to win. You are cherry picking.

Yes, at 21 years old I have very little confidence that Ves will have a productive NHL career if at all at this point.

Vesalainen actually had strong D+1 and D+2 seasons. Questions have only arisen based on his first N American pro season, and the point is that 0.5 ppg as a 20 year old AHL rookie isn't the black mark that some seem to think it is. Harkins is actually a good example.

 

[Atoyot]

Vesalainen actually had strong D+1 and D+2 seasons. Questions have only arisen based on his first N American pro season, and the point is that 0.5 ppg as a 20 year old AHL rookie isn't the black mark that some seem to think it is. Harkins is actually a good example.

Except Harkins never played overseas and made a ridiculous jump that few players ever do. The best way to use Harkins as an example is as a massive outlier, not as how we should expect other players to develop.

 

[Whileee]

Except Harkins never played overseas and made a ridiculous jump that few players ever do. The best way to use Harkins as an example is as a massive outlier, not as how we should expect other players to develop.

The point is that it is not very uncommon for forwards to take a year or two to adjust to the pro game at the AHL level, and the negative reaction to KV's rookie AHL season as a 20-year old is a bit overwrought.

 

[Atoyot]

The point is that it is not very uncommon for forwards to take a year or two to adjust to the pro game at the AHL level, and the negative reaction to KV's rookie AHL season as a 20-year old is a bit overwrought.

Absolutely, I don't disagree with that at all, my point was just that for those who are saying "look at where Harkins was at the same age" if they're expecting that to be a normal progression then they're going to be disappointed often. I still like Vesalainen and expect him to be an NHLer, though I was disappointed by his debut AHL season.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

VesaLaine was brought up slowly.... having his ELC slide..... 2 years ago. This allows him not to be eligible in the upcomming expansion draft.

 

[mazmin]

It’s a fun comparison since both are developing at a similar pace but they are incredibly different players.

Ves has all the tools to be a middle six power winger who can dominate along the walls and shoot. Harkins can be so much more. His IQ, vision and passing are on a whole other level compared to Ves. Harkins also has a surprisingly good shot and his speed has improved from a weakness to a strength over the past two seasons. It’s possible Harkins regresses back to an AHL player but I also see him pushing his way up the coaches ladder of trust into a reliable Top-6 fill-in role player like Andrew Copp.

 

[Weezeric]

It’s a fun comparison since both are developing at a similar pace but they are incredibly different players.

Ves has all the tools to be a middle six power winger who can dominate along the walls and shoot. Harkins can be so much more. His IQ, vision and passing are on a whole other level compared to Ves. Harkins also has a surprisingly good shot and his speed has improved from a weakness to a strength over the past two seasons. It’s possible Harkins regresses back to an AHL player but I also see him pushing his way up the coaches ladder of trust into a reliable Top-6 fill-in role player like Andrew Copp.

Of course, development isn’t linear but Vesalainen is two years younger. He hasn’t had the chance to have all that development that Harkins has had in the past two years.

That being said, I see Harkins peak as a 40-50 point center and Vesalainen’s as a 60 point winger, so similar value at the peak.

 

[untouchable21]

I’m going with Harkins, but the higher ceiling of Vesalainen could vault him past if he can adjust his game to North American ice.

I can see Harkins having a Max Talbot type career. A solid 3 rd line player who contributes to his team’s success.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It’s a fun comparison since both are developing at a similar pace but they are incredibly different players.

Ves has all the tools to be a middle six power winger who can dominate along the walls and shoot. Harkins can be so much more. His IQ, vision and passing are on a whole other level compared to Ves. Harkins also has a surprisingly good shot and his speed has improved from a weakness to a strength over the past two seasons. It’s possible Harkins regresses back to an AHL player but I also see him pushing his way up the coaches ladder of trust into a reliable Top-6 fill-in role player like Andrew Copp.

People pointing to Harkins D+3 as a comparable for KV's D+3 are incorrectly seeing them as equal.
Harkins D+3 - 46gms, 2G, 11A, 13pts = .28ppg and 6 gms in the ECHL with 6 pts
Vesalainen D+3 - 60 gms, 12G, 18A, 60pts = .5ppg - almost doublr Harkins' rate.

KV was actually pretty good for a rookie. Less than some had expected though and that leads to under-appreciation of what he did. As far as KV's play in Liiga so far this year, he has done as well or better in Liiga in the past, even 3 years ago. It is still Liiga.

 

[mazmin]

People pointing to Harkins D+3 as a comparable for KV's D+3 are incorrectly seeing them as equal.
Harkins D+3 - 46gms, 2G, 11A, 13pts = .28ppg and 6 gms in the ECHL with 6 pts
Vesalainen D+3 - 60 gms, 12G, 18A, 60pts = .5ppg - almost doublr Harkins' rate.

KV was actually pretty good for a rookie. Less than some had expected though and that leads to under-appreciation of what he did. As far as KV's play in Liiga so far this year, he has done as well or better in Liiga in the past, even 3 years ago. It is still Liiga.

I said similar pace, not exact pace. Harkins clearly had more to work on, thus he was picked lower in the draft and did, indeed, take time to work on his flaws. Ves had less to work on in terms of skillset and more to develop based on how he applies his skills. Ves D+3 and Harkins D+4 are comparable, and I don’t expect Ves to get a full-time job until his D+5 (same as when Harkins made it).

 

[jetsforever]

Going with KV based on hope mostly, even though he is more likely to completely bust as well

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I said similar pace, not exact pace. Harkins clearly had more to work on, thus he was picked lower in the draft and did, indeed, take time to work on his flaws. Ves had less to work on in terms of skillset and more to develop based on how he applies his skills. Ves D+3 and Harkins D+4 are comparable, and I don’t expect Ves to get a full-time job until his D+5 (same as when Harkins made it).

OK, but the 2 players D+3 paces were not similar. Ves might still make it in D+4, but I'll agree that D+5 is more likely.

 

[GaryPoppins]

Sample size on Harkins as an NHL is promising but small.

The thoughts people had about Harkins previous to last year revolve around Ves now.

They’ll be patient with both but Ves will have more rope IMO.

Hindsight is 2020 but would have anyone blinked at exposing Dano or a Perrault to have Valamaki or Suzuki right now?

I wouldn’t.

 

[GaryPoppins]

People pointing to Harkins D+3 as a comparable for KV's D+3 are incorrectly seeing them as equal.
Harkins D+3 - 46gms, 2G, 11A, 13pts = .28ppg and 6 gms in the ECHL with 6 pts
Vesalainen D+3 - 60 gms, 12G, 18A, 60pts = .5ppg - almost doublr Harkins' rate.

KV was actually pretty good for a rookie. Less than some had expected though and that leads to under-appreciation of what he did. As far as KV's play in Liiga so far this year, he has done as well or better in Liiga in the past, even 3 years ago. It is still Liiga.

I’d also cite the Ves really didn’t have much to work with down on the Moose. The quality of lineup that franchise has put out is laughable.

 

[Whileee]

Sample size on Harkins as an NHL is promising but small.

The thoughts people had about Harkins previous to last year revolve around Ves now.

They’ll be patient with both but Ves will have more rope IMO.

Hindsight is 2020 but would have anyone blinked at exposing Dano or a Perrault to have Valamaki or Suzuki right now?

I wouldn’t.

Exposing Dano or Perreault had absolutely no bearing on the expansion draft. In fact, Dano was left unprotected. The trade down with Vegas was to protect Enstrom, who had waived his NMC. At that point, Enstrom was a key top-4 D for the Jets as they were going into the 2017/18 season, in which they saw themselves as a strong contender. Losing a top-4 D is not something that a top team will want to do. If the Jets had to protect Enstrom, they would have lost one of the following:

Myers, Little, Copp, Lowry.

So the choice was losing one of: Enstrom, Little, Copp, Lowry.

Instead, they lost Thorburn, and in return moved from #13 to #23 pick.

I don't think this was a bad decision considering where the roster was at the time.

 

[surixon]

Exposing Dano or Perreault had absolutely no bearing on the expansion draft. In fact, Dano was left unprotected. The trade down with Vegas was to protect Enstrom, who had waived his NMC. At that point, Enstrom was a key top-4 D for the Jets as they were going into the 2017/18 season, in which they saw themselves as a strong contender. Losing a top-4 D is not something that a top team will want to do. If the Jets had to protect Enstrom, they would have lost one of the following:

Myers, Little, Copp, Lowry.

So the choice was losing one of: Enstrom, Little, Copp, Lowry.

Instead, they lost Thorburn, and in return moved from #13 to #23 pick.

I don't think this was a bad decision considering where the roster was at the time.

Yeah I dont see how people are annoyed at how Chevy handled that draft. I thought he was quite well prepared and didn't give up much to maintain a very strong roster.

If Ves turns into a middle 6 power forward then we really didn't lose much trading down.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yeah I dont see how people are annoyed at how Chevy handled that draft. I thought he was quite well prepared and didn't give up much to maintain a very strong roster.

If Ves turns into a middle 6 power forward then we really didn't lose much trading down.

I would have gladly lost Myers for Suzuki or valimaki now.

 

[surixon]

I would have gladly lost Myers for Suzuki or valimaki now.

If that is who they would have drafted. They could have grabbed someone else in those slots.

 

[Adam da bomb]

If that is who they would have drafted. They could have grabbed someone else in those slots.

But it would have been someone good because for the most part Chevy has drafted as well as anyone else.

 

[surixon]

But it would have been someone good because for the most part Chevy has drafted as well as anyone else.

It is still hindsight, he could have picked a player like Liljegren as well as rumblings were the Jets liked him.

 

[Adam da bomb]

It is still hindsight, he could have picked a player like Liljegren as well as rumblings were the Jets liked him.

You don’t think liljegren will at least have a better career than Myers? Fit the team right now a little better than Sbisa, fobert.
When you can’t attract FA don’t you need to at least keep some kind of eye on the future.
Frankly if Chevy liked him I’d give liljgren the benefit of the doubt that he can still be good or give Chevy the benefit of the doubt. There has only been one Stanley.

 

[surixon]

You don’t think liljegren will at least have a better career than Myers?

As it stands right now I'd say it's unlikely. He hasn't yet made the NHL and I think he projects as second pairing dmen if he makes it at this point.

A good many players picked in that range of the draft haven't done anything yet.

 

[Adam da bomb]

As it stands right now I'd say it's unlikely. He hasn't yet made the NHL and I think he projects as second pairing dmen if he makes it at this point.

A good many players picked in that range of the draft haven't done anything yet.

I don’t believe Myers is a 1st pairing either.

 

[surixon]

I don’t believe Myers is a 1st pairing either.

What is the saying a bird in the hand. The point is that the Jets wanted to win at that point and were willing sacrifice a higher pock in the draft to do it.

Given that no one drafted post 13th overall has made a significant NHL impact as of yet the jury is still out as to just how much value they have up dropping down.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If that is who they would have drafted. They could have grabbed someone else in those slots.

You are assuming that nothing could have been negotiated with VGK other than what was done. There would have been many other possibilities.