GM Ron Hextall

[Johnk0728]

That is not true.

If you look at the active forwards who are top ~100 in Corsi rel over the last 4 years here are the ones you would say are not legit top 6 players:

Raffl, Nestrasil, Jaskin, Dano, Jurco, Maroon, Bickell, Lee, Rust, Byron, Eaves, Comeau.

And ~8/12 of them are still pretty good hockey players. And the ones who the Corsi rel indicates are good generally get **** easy minutes and easy zone starts.

If you look at the active forwards who are bottom ~100 in Corsi rel over the last 4 years here are the ones you would say are legit top 6 players:

Vanek, Horvat, Fisher, Henrique, Kessel, Ryan.

3 of those guys are noted for being bad defensive players, that is what drags them down, and the other 3 get tough minutes.


It is pretty rare for a player to have awful underlying stats and be a good hockey player.

And the players with good underlying stats who are not top 6ers are generally good two-way 3rd line talents.

I do not consider a hockey player who takes no chances and is a 39 point player a top NHL forward. You have to make the other team react to your game. All Couturier does is gain the zone and wait. He does not put pressure on the other teams D. No NHL team comes into the game worried about stopping Sean Couturier. They focus on Gostisbehere (-3 last night so was Schenn), Voracek, Giroux, Simmonds etc. Your focus so much on the analytics has made you not believe your eyes or form opinions until the stats are released.

 

[Johnk0728]

I think Weise would be a solid winger to have on a good 4th line which is why I'm not too concerned about his contract. I don't see a spot for him in the top 9 after this season with the high probability of adding a top 9 winger this off-season, whether th. He and lyubimov would be a great winger duo for the 4th line. They're so good at driving possession, i have a good feeling they won't be hemmed in their own zone almost every shift like a certain other duo the coach loves. And with that, I think both guys would see an increase in their points. Weise getting 20-25 points on the 4th line while driving possession would make his contract ok. Would just need to find a 4th line center that can win draws, be defensively responsible, and can keep up with the pace of play. Doesn't need to be a burner just needs to not be slower than everyone else like Gordon. Hopefully Hextall can finally make a signing that sticks there. I miss the days of having a 4th line that doesn't absolutely kill your momentum every time they are on the ice.

2.35 mil for an ineffective 4th line winger for 4 years is Ok? Really?

 

[Appleyard]

All ******** aside......Do you think Dale Weise has been an effective, impactful hockey player this year?

Last night all the Couturier line did was take the puck into the zone...get caught on the boards with it then get pushed off the puck and then go off for a line change while the Rangers went up ice. They created no real chances....

No. He has not been impactful at all.

I would expect him to pace for ~25 points over a season. He is at less than half of that and it is not good enough.

He is not being a 'liability' but for the money he is paid I would expect him to be an ~even player overall AND get ~25 points... not an ~even player and get ~10 points.

Has he had some bad luck? Yes...

but he is not doing a lot of the things he did in Montreal in regards to walking off half boards and firing shots, getting to the net etc.

Part of that is likely down to playing most of his year with Bellemare at 5v5... when in Montreal he had Desharnais, who while much maligned is 2-3x the hockey player Bellemare is offensively.

 

[Johnk0728]

No. He has not been impactful at all.

I would expect him to pace for ~25 points over a season. He is at less than half of that and it is not good enough.

He is not being a 'liability' but for the money he is paid I would expect him to be an ~even player overall AND get ~25 points... not an ~even player and get ~10 points.

Has he had some bad luck? Yes...

but he is not doing a lot of the things he did in Montreal in regards to walking off half boards and firing shots, getting to the net etc.

Part of that is likely down to playing most of his year with Bellemare at 5v5... when in Montreal he had Desharnais, who while much maligned is 2-3x the hockey player Bellemare is offensively.

Do yourself a favor and don't reference luck anymore.... its almost as if you are afraid to criticize a player. Weise has sucked....its a bad contract. He has played with no emotion or sandpaper. This is the guy that Kessel wanted to kill in the handshake line a few years ago. This year...he hasn't hit anyone in weeks.

 

[Appleyard]

I do not consider a hockey player who takes no chances and is a 39 point player a top NHL forward. You have to make the other team react to your game. All Couturier does is gain the zone and wait. He does not put pressure on the other teams D. No NHL team comes into the game worried about stopping Sean Couturier. They focus on Gostisbehere (-3 last night so was Schenn), Voracek, Giroux, Simmonds etc. Your focus so much on the analytics has made you not believe your eyes or form opinions until the stats are released.

A. I did not mention Couturier at any point in that post.

B. I did not mention 'top' forward, I explicitly stated top 6. It might be semantics but there is certainly a difference. Giroux and Voracek I would consider 'top' forwards... players like Silfverberg, Schenn etc I would say are top 6ers.

C. By virtually every measure Couturier is a capable top 6 NHL forward. Now, there are legitimate arguments as to what level of top 6 forward he is, but he scores at the rate a top 6 forward should and is great defensively while playing against the oppositions best players.



You did not actually reply to the post that showed that, yep, actually the underlying stats do match up quite well with how good players are at hockey. Instead just went off on a tangent that was quite unrelated to my rebutal of your sweeping statement about underlying statistics... a statement that was factually incorrect/

 

[Appleyard]

Do yourself a favor and don't reference luck anymore.... its almost as if you are afraid to criticize a player. Weise has sucked....its a bad contract. He has played with no emotion or sandpaper. This is the guy that Kessel wanted to kill in the handshake line a few years ago. This year...he hasn't hit anyone in weeks.

Luck is an integral component of hockey.

If a 12% career shooting player puts 100 shots on net in the first 41 games of the season and scores 20 goals in them he is very, very unlikely to sustain that kind of production going forward in his career. It will normalise over time, and he more likely than not scores ~10-14 goals per 100 shots going forward.


The other extreme is that a player has been a 10% shooter his entire career... but over his last 100 shots he has scored ~5 goals. It is very unlikely that he has all of a sudden became a 5% shooter without an injuries etc. And therefore going forward you would expect him to shoot at ~10% again.


And I did criticise him. I do not know how you could read that post and not see criticism.

He has not been impactful at all.

He is at less than half of that and it is not good enough.

he is not doing a lot of the things he did in Montreal in regards to walking off half boards and firing shots, getting to the net etc.

Unless you were trying to manufacture a false narrative.

 

[tade]

The bottom line is that Hextall has tried hard to cut salary but some of that has been nullified by the Dale Weise contract and even though not completely useless he is here long term and grossly overpaid. For double of that cap hit they could have just kept Hartnell and enjoyed the 50 points per season that he would have added

Roman Lyubimov does the same job for 900K and he is excempt to waivers.

Let's not act like this will be the version of Weise that we will see for full 3 years from now. He deserves all the critique, he probably can't be more bad offensively than he's now, so I think that he will pick it up at some point.

 

[Johnk0728]

A. I did not mention Couturier at any point in that post.

B. I did not mention 'top' forward, I explicitly stated top 6. It might be semantics but there is certainly a difference. Giroux and Voracek I would consider 'top' forwards... players like Silfverberg, Schenn etc I would say are top 6ers.

C. By virtually every measure Couturier is a capable top 6 NHL forward. Now, there are legitimate arguments as to what level of top 6 forward he is, but he scores at the rate a top 6 forward should and is great defensively while playing against the oppositions best players.

Couturier is a top 6 forward to you and I say he is a 3rd line checker. He takes no chances and creates no chances. Do you think he poses a threat to teams offensively? I do not. Last night Couturier got pushed off the puck a lot.... he was terrible last night as was his whole line. He didn't register a hit or a shot but I bet his CORSI was good....don't care what it was. I saw the game. My argument is that your relying on analytics is flawed at times on players.
What is your analysis of Couturier last night? Ghost?

 

[WIP CALLER]

2.35 mil for an ineffective 4th line winger for 4 years is Ok? Really?

Judging a contract based on a player's statline on half a season? Really? Because Weise will never ever turn it around and his lack of scoring this year has nothing with having one of the lowest scoring forwards in the league as his center? Really?

 

[Johnk0728]

Luck is an integral component of hockey.

If a 12% career shooting player puts 100 shots on net in the first 41 games of the season and scores 20 goals in them he is very, very unlikely to sustain that kind of production going forward in his career. It will normalise over time, and he more likely than not scores ~10-14 goals per 100 shots going forward.


The other extreme is that a player has been a 10% shooter his entire career... but over his last 100 shots he has scored ~5 goals. It is very unlikely that he has all of a sudden became a 5% shooter without an injuries etc. And therefore going forward you would expect him to shoot at ~10% again.


And I did criticise him. I do not know how you could read that post and not see criticism.







Unless you were trying to manufacture a false narrative.

Jeff Carter is a perennial 20 goal scorer. he creates a ton shots. His #'s have nothing to do with luck. When Michael Raffl scores 20 then its an outlier season where he got the bounces and/or was a product of linemates. I will agree with that. But shooting % in hockey is a flawed stat to look at. The guys that are good are the ones that are able to gets shots on goal and are able to create chances. Pucks on net means two thing....puck is in your zone and chances to score are high.

 

[Appleyard]

Couturier is a top 6 forward to you and I say he is a 3rd line checker. He takes no chances and creates no chances. Do you think he poses a threat to teams offensively? I do not. Last night Couturier got pushed off the puck a lot.... he was terrible last night as was his whole line. He didn't register a hit or a shot but I bet his CORSI was good....don't care what it was. I saw the game. My argument is that your relying on analytics is flawed at times on players.
What is your analysis of Couturier last night? Ghost?

So you can admit you were incorrect with your sweeping statement that 'why guys who are not skilled players seem to always score well in analytics?'

When all I replied was factual information showing that what you said was incorrect?

Because you replied to that not with a rebuttal, or information to the contrary... but a completed unrelated post going back to Couturier...

He was bad last night.

And funnily enough his Corsi showed it! 34.62% 2nd worst on the team.


Though everyone here will tell you I am not actually a big fan of looking at Corsi over isolated games.

Underlying stats are extremely unreliable in small sample sizes... I would not make a statement one way or another based on them, and funnily enough when it comes to a few game sample would actually prefer to analyse it based on what I see.

If someone has ~35% corsi in a game and scores two goals, and all the 'negative' corsi comes on a bad shift where they get hemmed in their zone for 1:30 did they have a bad game due to that? Ofc not.

However, when you are talking ~100-200+ game samples then they generally do not lie.

 

[Curufinwe]

I don't think Weise or Ghost are going to stay as ~0.5 points/60 players at 5 on 5.

 

[Johnk0728]

Judging a contract based on a player's statline on half a season? Really? Because Weise will never ever turn it around and his lack of scoring this year has nothing with having one of the lowest scoring forwards in the league as his center? Really?

We will see..... there does come a time when the player himself needs to be accountable. The excuses need to stop at some point. 4 points so far this year while being scratched by the coach a couple times is probably that moment.

 

[Appleyard]

Jeff Carter is a perennial 20 goal scorer. he creates a ton shots. His #'s have nothing to do with luck. When Michael Raffl scores 20 then its an outlier season where he got the bounces and/or was a product of linemates. I will agree with that. But shooting % in hockey is a flawed stat to look at. The guys that are good are the ones that are able to gets shots on goal and are able to create chances. Pucks on net means two thing....puck is in your zone and chances to score are high.

Relative to their own historic shot percentage it is not really a flawed stat to look at... and that was exactly what I stated in my previous post when I referenced a 12% shooting player shooting at 20% for a short period of time!

Jeff Carter is a great example actually.

Look at his 2012-13 season. He played 48 games and shot at 19.5% and paced for 44 goals over 82 games.

Did anyone expect him to shoot at 19.5% next year when he was an 11% career shooter? Ofc not. More than likely he would shoot at ~10-13% and instead of pacing for 44 goals pace for ~25-35 goals. Which he did the next three seasosn!


And as you said, at the other end of the spectrum someone like Raffl.

He shot at 16% when he scored 20 goals.... he shot at 10% the year after and got 13.

 

[Johnk0728]

So you can admit you were incorrect with your sweeping statement that 'why guys who are not skilled players seem to always score well in analytics?'

When all I replied was factual information showing that what you said was incorrect?

Because you replied to that not with a rebuttal, or information to the contrary... but a completed unrelated post going back to Couturier...

He was bad last night.

And funnily enough his Corsi showed it! 34.62% 2nd worst on the team.


Though everyone here will tell you I am not actually a big fan of looking at Corsi over isolated games.

Underlying stats are extremely unreliable in small sample sizes... I would not make a statement one way or another based on them, and funnily enough when it comes to a few game sample would actually prefer to analyse it based on what I see.

If someone has ~35% corsi in a game and scores two goals, and all the 'negative' corsi comes on a bad shift where they get hemmed in their zone for 1:30 did they have a bad game due to that? Ofc not.

However, when you are talking ~100-200+ game samples then they generally do not lie.

No....completely on the contrary. My point was before you went and started sorting spreadsheets is that a 39 point forward who does not create many chances and plays the line gain game can score a very high CORSI score while not being that effective offensively because his game is such that no chances are taken. 3rd line checkers like Couturier are this type of player. Now players who try to score are going to take chances and they are more prone to plays going back against them or spend some shifts in their zone too much due to their proclivity of trying to go forward so much. Skilled players are in this category.

Now that debate aside....Do you agree that Couturier's game has regressed this year? He has not played well outside of the very early part of the season.

 

[Appleyard]

No....completely on the contrary. My point was before you went and started sorting spreadsheets is that a 39 point forward who does not create many chances and plays the line gain game can score a very high CORSI score while not being that effective offensively because his game is such that no chances are taken. 3rd line checkers like Couturier are this type of player. Now players who try to score are going to take chances and they are more prone to plays going back against them or spend some shifts in their zone too much due to their proclivity of trying to go forward so much. Skilled players are in this category.

Now that debate aside....Do you agree that Couturier's game has regressed this year? He has not played well outside of the very early part of the season.

But my initial post made no reference to Couturier... and was instead referencing your statement that underlying statistics always make unskilled player look good... when they do not. Bad NHL players almost always have bad underlying stats, and the opposite is true for good ones.

I am not going back into the discussion on Couturier in depth. I already showed that outside the PP he produces at a rate that is good enough for a 2nd line center, and that L.A. and Chicago won cups with inferior hockey players at 2C.

If you don't think that, then that is fine! People are allowed opinions.

Heck, on the Duchene matter from the other thread... yeah, if we could get a 60+ point center and slide Couturier to 3C we would have the best top 9 in the NHL. But it seems unrealistic without gutting other areas of the team, and is not as big a need, or a need as easy to fill, as a ~30pt two-way 3C (Beglund, Bonino, Karlsson, Jarnkrok etc) and a stronger defense (internal progression).

(In other words I would rather have Couturier at 2C, aquire a solid 3C and let the Dmen develop and see where we are as a team than gut our defensive prospect pipeline and likely add a current top six forward for someone like Duchene when he will need a raise soon.)

Last year Couturier generated the most scoring chances while on ice amongst our forwards (more than Voracek, Simmonds and Giroux), and paced for 51 points.

Has he played as well this season? No. Though I trust he can get back to the level he played last season and early this season.

 

[Johnk0728]

Relative to their own historic shot percentage it is not really a flawed stat to look at... and that was exactly what I stated in my previous post when I referenced a 12% shooting player shooting at 20% for a short period of time!

Jeff Carter is a great example actually.

Look at his 2012-13 season. He played 48 games and shot at 19.5% and paced for 44 goals over 82 games.

Did anyone expect him to shoot at 19.5% next year when he was an 11% career shooter? Ofc not. More than likely he would shoot at ~10-13% and instead of pacing for 44 goals pace for ~25-35 goals. Which he did the next three seasosn!


And as you said, at the other end of the spectrum someone like Raffl.

He shot at 16% when he scored 20 goals.... he shot at 10% the year after and got 13.

You used the term luck in describing Weise's game this year. His play does not deserve that. He has 4 points....so with more puck luck he would have 5 points? Raffl is not a 20 goal scorer neither was Clarkson. Carter will score goals because he is talented enough to create room to get shots off. But it also could be said that they played better in those outlier years and hence had higher shooting % or in a better situation. Look at Sam Gagner this year....he is on a better team and getting PP time. That's not puck luck but a change in environment. Voracek's numbers were down last year not due to luck due to his conditioning and then a lack of confidence. This year he was in shape and lo and behold his luck changed. So sometimes dumb luck is not the reason.

 

[Rebels57]

A. I did not mention Couturier at any point in that post.

B. I did not mention 'top' forward, I explicitly stated top 6. It might be semantics but there is certainly a difference. Giroux and Voracek I would consider 'top' forwards... players like Silfverberg, Schenn etc I would say are top 6ers.

C. By virtually every measure Couturier is a capable top 6 NHL forward. Now, there are legitimate arguments as to what level of top 6 forward he is, but he scores at the rate a top 6 forward should and is great defensively while playing against the oppositions best players.



You did not actually reply to the post that showed that, yep, actually the underlying stats do match up quite well with how good players are at hockey. Instead just went off on a tangent that was quite unrelated to my rebutal of your sweeping statement about underlying statistics... a statement that was factually incorrect/

I love the part where he calls im a "39 point player" completely ignoring the fact that those 39 points were scored in 63 games.

That's like the Devils troll on the main boards that was arguing Simmonds was a "28 goal scorer" even though he has actually averaged over 30 goals per 82 games the past 3 seasons and will do that again this season.

 

[Johnk0728]

But my initial post made no reference to Couturier... and was instead referencing your statement that underlying statistics always make unskilled player look good... when they do not. Bad NHL players almost always have bad underlying stats, and the opposite is true for good ones.

I am not going back into the discussion on Couturier in depth. I already showed that outside the PP he produces at a rate that is good enough for a 2nd line center, and that L.A. and Chicago won cups with inferior hockey players at 2C.

If you don't think that, then that is fine! People are allowed opinions.

Heck, on the Duchene matter from the other thread... yeah, if we could get a 60+ point center and slide Couturier to 3C we would have the best top 9 in the NHL. But it seems unrealistic without gutting other areas of the team, and is not as big a need, or a need as easy to fill, as a ~30pt two-way 3C (Beglund, Bonino, Karlsson, Jarnkrok etc) and a stronger defense (internal progression).

Last year Couturier generated the most scoring chances while on ice amongst our forwards (more than Voracek, Simmonds and Giroux), and paced for 51 points.

Has he played as well this season? No. Though I trust he can get back to the level he played last season and early this season.

Point taken..... where is the scoring chance stat that you are referencing from last year? I would like to see it.

If the Flyers do not change this forward dynamic; they will not compete in the East. Simple as that.... last night was an example. No luck involved in a matchup problem up front with NY and Pens.

 

[Johnk0728]

I love the part where he calls im a "39 point player" completely ignoring the fact that those 39 points were scored in 63 games.

That's like the Devils troll on the main boards that was arguing Simmonds was a "28 goal scorer" even though he has actually averaged over 30 goals per 82 games the past 3 seasons and will do that again this season.

His career average .44 PPG. This year he is at .375 ppg. Is that better?

 

[Appleyard]

You used the term luck in describing Weise's game this year. His play does not deserve that. He has 4 points....so with more puck luck he would have 5 points? Raffl is not a 20 goal scorer neither was Clarkson. Carter will score goals because he is talented enough to create room to get shots off. But it also could be said that they played better in those outlier years and hence had higher shooting % or in a better situation. Look at Sam Gagner this year....he is on a better team and getting PP time. That's not puck luck but a change in environment. Voracek's numbers were down last year not due to luck due to his conditioning and then a lack of confidence. This year he was in shape and lo and behold his luck changed. So sometimes dumb luck is not the reason.

As I already stated, Weise has not been walking off the right boards or getting to the net like he did in Montreal. He is pacing for ~10 points... with his normal 'puck-luck' that would likely be ~20... which would still be below expected, but closer to it.


Sam Gagner is another great example. He is shooting at 17% when he has never broke 12.4% before and is a 10% career shooter.

That is puck luck. Virtually no-one can sustain that.

Is he playing better? Yeh, but he is still a bottom six NHL forward, just getting PP1 time which he would never have got here.

He also has the 8th highest on ice shot percentage amongst NHL forwards. 13.59%... that is above unsustainable. No player has ever had back to back years with more than 13%.

He is pacing for 33 goals.

If he was at his previous best of 12.4% he would be pacing for 24.
If he was at his career average of 10.2% he would be pacing for 20.

Back in Edmonton when he was on PP1 there he was pacing for that number from 2008-13... he is the same player as he was then, just getting better luck.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Do yourself a favor and don't reference luck anymore....

When Michael Raffl scores 20 then its an outlier season where he got the bounces and/or was a product of linemates.

ummm wait !!!! which is it ?

first you say one guy cant use luck, and then followup with a post saying a different guy is getting luck..


haha...

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Do yourself a favor and don't reference luck anymore.... its almost as if you are afraid to criticize a player. Weise has sucked....its a bad contract. He has played with no emotion or sandpaper. This is the guy that Kessel wanted to kill in the handshake line a few years ago. This year...he hasn't hit anyone in weeks.

Do all of us a favor and go back to Facebook.

 

[renberg]

The more this team plays with the roster that it currently has, the more the fans can see how bad it is. There really aren't any quick fixes. This bunch isn't making the POs. After the AS or even sooner, it would be good to get rid of some of the underperformers and bring replacements up from LV. Start to play for '17-18.
-Laughton, Leier, Lyubomov have to be able to fill the fourth line as well as VdV/PEB/Gordon.
-I still advocate moving Schenn for a player that can fill the top line LW position and moving Raffl down to 3C. I don't believe that Schenn wants to play wing and sees himself as a C. For some teams, he'd be a 2C. Move him there. A third line centered by Raffl could be a threat to score.
-If there is no market for MDZ, Streit, Schultz and Manning, send some of them to LV or cut them. Bring up Morin and other blue liners from LV to take their place. We know what the guys that are here can/can't do. Could the younger guys be worse? Additionally it would give them some NHL experience.
-The Sieve Mason era needs to end. He doesn't have what it takes to be the main guy here. Actually, he doesn't seem to be the same since Reese left town. Between an occasional good game/moment are the slumps, injuries and mental walkabouts. He's not worth all of the drama.

 

[Appleyard]

Point taken..... where is the scoring chance stat that you are referencing from last year? I would like to see it.

If the Flyers do not change this forward dynamic; they will not compete in the East. Simple as that.... last night was an example. No luck involved in a matchup problem up front with NY and Pens.

http://www.corsica.hockey/skaters/

Couturier was at 9.98, highest on the team.

And tying in with that was his Goals for/60, which was 2.71, 2nd only to Simmonds at 2.75.


I agree. The current forward group is not good enough. However, I feel that getting a ~30 point 3C and another 40+ point winger is a cheaper, more effective way of fixing that than going and breaking the bank on another 60+ point forward. We already have 3 guys who get 60+ points, 2 who get 70+. But our scoring outside of our top 6 forwards is a joke... Raffl is the 7th best forward on the team... he would be 9th best on most contenders.