OT: General OT Stuff (Infinity+3)(No Politics/Spoilers, see OP)
- Thread starter Calicaps
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CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
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That info is so easily available honestly. It's silly not to at least check if you were part of it. I wasn't thankfully, but everyone should have monitoring and if I were part of the breach, I would freeze my credit.
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
- 64,677
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CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
- 64,677
- 19,518
Some state attorney generals have already said these forced terms are "unenforceable". Equifax has since added language saying it doesn't apply to this event....
RandyHolt
Keep truckin'
- Nov 3, 2006
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I have been trying to figure out the steering of canes. I read to take a look at the 200 to 700mb steering layer for storms under 940mb, such as Irma - take a quick look:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time=
You see why forecasts were thinking east.
RH Wishcast after analyzing the link: I'll predict she goes very west of model consensus after roughing Cuba. A QB sneak up the gut NW to calm air with the eye just missing key west. Head to the dead spot in the gulf, circle and get vacuumed SW to Cancun.
For weak tropical storms, look at the 700-850mb steering layer. Look at the differences in mb of the 6 layers to find the right one. Irma has been forecast hard core intense and I think it weakens more than forecast after hitting Cuba and exiting a bit more west. Fingers crossed at least.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time=
You see why forecasts were thinking east.
RH Wishcast after analyzing the link: I'll predict she goes very west of model consensus after roughing Cuba. A QB sneak up the gut NW to calm air with the eye just missing key west. Head to the dead spot in the gulf, circle and get vacuumed SW to Cancun.
For weak tropical storms, look at the 700-850mb steering layer. Look at the differences in mb of the 6 layers to find the right one. Irma has been forecast hard core intense and I think it weakens more than forecast after hitting Cuba and exiting a bit more west. Fingers crossed at least.
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RandyHolt
Keep truckin'
- Nov 3, 2006
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Twabby - Report in! Or, don't, and we'll assume you sought a safer area. It's going to be a crazy next 48 hours. Good luck.
Naples Ft Myers Sarasota and Tampa should prepare to be in the direct line of landfall at this point - especially since it will likely be in the most dangerous right front quadrant.
Naples Ft Myers Sarasota and Tampa should prepare to be in the direct line of landfall at this point - especially since it will likely be in the most dangerous right front quadrant.
twabby
Registered User
- Mar 9, 2010
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Still here at my house (that I am fortunately renting). Extremely anxious. As I mentioned I'm outside of any flood or evacuation zones and am in a newer and built-to-code house so I am planning on riding it out with my dog, and my sister and her boyfriend (who were in a mandatory evacuation zone).
I feel like I've prepared as much as possible so I'm going through all of the "what ifs" now. As I think of them I do a little more preparation.
Tampa and Pinellas County/St Petersburg are going to be devastated but I am a good 25-30 miles away. It doesn't look like the absolute worst case scenario for Tampa (a hit from the SW would likely we the worst case track), but the trend has been getting worse and worse.
I'll check in as often as possible, depending on how long I have power and assuming there isn't disruption in cellular service. Things aren't supposed to get too bad until tomorrow afternoon and into Monday morning here.
I feel like I've prepared as much as possible so I'm going through all of the "what ifs" now. As I think of them I do a little more preparation.
Tampa and Pinellas County/St Petersburg are going to be devastated but I am a good 25-30 miles away. It doesn't look like the absolute worst case scenario for Tampa (a hit from the SW would likely we the worst case track), but the trend has been getting worse and worse.
I'll check in as often as possible, depending on how long I have power and assuming there isn't disruption in cellular service. Things aren't supposed to get too bad until tomorrow afternoon and into Monday morning here.
RandyHolt
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- Nov 3, 2006
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Thanks for the report. At least you are not riding it out on the shore. It's going to be intense. How ironic with that Wapo article from a month ago, if Tampa takes a direct hit. I am thinking the folks in the pan handle better be ready too, I am not sure enough attention has been focused on them.
twabby
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I made it out alive. Very minor issues at my house caused by wind and rain, but thankfully the Tampa Bay Area avoided any significant hit.
Unfortunately the Keys and Naples got hit hard, but of the many scenarios possible for Florida this was a "better" outcome.
Unfortunately the Keys and Naples got hit hard, but of the many scenarios possible for Florida this was a "better" outcome.
strungout
Professional Killer
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
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twabby
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Thank you CCF!
Now we can go back to our regularly scheduled disagreeing with each other on various other topics
RandyHolt
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Cuba punched her right in the gut and she was discombobulated and a shell of her former self when she headed to FLA. Cuba totally saved Florida's ass, starting with Key West. Otherwise what we see in the British Virgin Islands and Barbuda would be what we got. Cell towers bent in half... imagine a 50 mile wide EF3 or EF4 tornado.
The Euro model was first to show Cuba landfall, and the Euro did very well overall. But late in the game Euro struggled, showing Irma moving more West than it did. So even the worlds best modeling choked at what should be the easiest time - it's final approach. The Caps are the Euro.
The ginormous cone of uncertainty for NHC guidance needs to remain a thing.
The Euro model was first to show Cuba landfall, and the Euro did very well overall. But late in the game Euro struggled, showing Irma moving more West than it did. So even the worlds best modeling choked at what should be the easiest time - it's final approach. The Caps are the Euro.
The ginormous cone of uncertainty for NHC guidance needs to remain a thing.
twabby
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Yes I agree the cone needs to remain. I admit I got a little too focused on the center line as it approached Florida and next time I will assume there is more error with the future track.
There is already talk of people being irritated that mass evacuations were ordered when they weren't necessary for certain areas and I really hope these people understand why they were ordered. As you mentioned not many people had the storm coming up the state (rather than hitting SE Florida and Miami dead on, or riding up the west coast which would have devastated many cities). It's just very hard to predict with the millions of variables involved in forecasting. I fear people might be stubborn and ride it out next time even if they are in an evacuation zone.
There is already talk of people being irritated that mass evacuations were ordered when they weren't necessary for certain areas and I really hope these people understand why they were ordered. As you mentioned not many people had the storm coming up the state (rather than hitting SE Florida and Miami dead on, or riding up the west coast which would have devastated many cities). It's just very hard to predict with the millions of variables involved in forecasting. I fear people might be stubborn and ride it out next time even if they are in an evacuation zone.
Would much rather see pissed off people who were evacuated unnecessarily than be finding bodies of people who weren't given a chance to escape to safety. If people are angry that the storm wasn't as big of a deal as originally anticipated and thus their lives inconvenienced for a few days, that's a huge win. People need to put things into context some times.
Calicaps
NFA
RandyHolt
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The irony of reporters blowing a fuse if they see a citizen outside is over the top and doesn't get any more ironic. Maybe its an employee at the hotel they are staying at walking home around the block to feed their cat or get some milk for their latte's. The best is when they stand in the only puddle they can find and get busted out on it.
I was watching the WX boards and most all the boards mets and amateurs alike were saying it was going to re-organize after Cuba, after NHC kept at a Cat3 forecast. It was a head scratcher. Indeed it did reach Cat4 again after a small strengthening. Florida did damn good evac'ing basically both coasts. Florida is too narrow to chance it.
Aerial footage is starting to come in. It's telling how wide spread the damage is we are starting to see. Florida was damn lucky this storm - Irma had all the weathgeeks truly riled up with near guaranteed US landfall from far out, along with its record breaking prolonged Cat5 intensity made this basically a once in a lifetime event. It also had a rare very wide high speed wind field so you didn't need the eye to get demolished. A 500 year storm. We will see about that though.
I think the eye after regenerating was about 50 miles wide. Imagine a tornado that wide moving 10 mph over your city. Florida's only hope would be the same as usual, hope it does not hit a high population area and die quickly over land.
I was watching the WX boards and most all the boards mets and amateurs alike were saying it was going to re-organize after Cuba, after NHC kept at a Cat3 forecast. It was a head scratcher. Indeed it did reach Cat4 again after a small strengthening. Florida did damn good evac'ing basically both coasts. Florida is too narrow to chance it.
Aerial footage is starting to come in. It's telling how wide spread the damage is we are starting to see. Florida was damn lucky this storm - Irma had all the weathgeeks truly riled up with near guaranteed US landfall from far out, along with its record breaking prolonged Cat5 intensity made this basically a once in a lifetime event. It also had a rare very wide high speed wind field so you didn't need the eye to get demolished. A 500 year storm. We will see about that though.
I think the eye after regenerating was about 50 miles wide. Imagine a tornado that wide moving 10 mph over your city. Florida's only hope would be the same as usual, hope it does not hit a high population area and die quickly over land.
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twabby
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Yeah I don't like the national reporters sensationalizing these types of storms and only turning on the cameras when winds start gusting but I must say the local news coverage was very good. They repeatedly hammered the evacuation orders and listed all of the nearby shelters and gave tips for people riding it out at home.
And despite my normal criticism of the Florida state and local governments I thought they were very organized and proactive in preparing for the storm. In my area and others there were plenty of shelters opened and stocked with supplies and were accepting people (along with pets) basically until the worst of the storm hit. I actually considered evacuating to a nearby shelter even though I wasn't in an evac zone because I thought a school would be able to handle hurricane-force winds much better than my house.
(The only criticism I have is that Rick Scott is an avid climate-change denier but that is more of a long-term criticism rather than his immediate response to this storm, which I thought was good.)
I'm sure hurricane Harvey had a lot to do with this response. Seeing that type of devastation in Houston had to make Florida officials extra cautious. Apparently Jacksonville was hammered with storm surge but as far as I can tell they were evacuated well in advance despite not ever being the predicted landfall site.
And despite my normal criticism of the Florida state and local governments I thought they were very organized and proactive in preparing for the storm. In my area and others there were plenty of shelters opened and stocked with supplies and were accepting people (along with pets) basically until the worst of the storm hit. I actually considered evacuating to a nearby shelter even though I wasn't in an evac zone because I thought a school would be able to handle hurricane-force winds much better than my house.
(The only criticism I have is that Rick Scott is an avid climate-change denier but that is more of a long-term criticism rather than his immediate response to this storm, which I thought was good.)
I'm sure hurricane Harvey had a lot to do with this response. Seeing that type of devastation in Houston had to make Florida officials extra cautious. Apparently Jacksonville was hammered with storm surge but as far as I can tell they were evacuated well in advance despite not ever being the predicted landfall site.
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hockeykicker
Moderator
- Dec 3, 2014
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Hivemind
We're Touched
Jose has been around for several days now. Most of the zoomed out satellite pics of Irma showed Jose trailing her. There's also Katia in the Gulf of Mexico.
RandyHolt
Keep truckin'
- Nov 3, 2006
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I see the end around gut punch by the UKMET right into Ft Lauderdale #Outlier
I think the UK did very good forecasting IRMA IINM. It was the first to show it hitting Cuba long before any other, but had it making full landfall, so it wasn't perfect. Of course as we all just learned, no model ever is.
I think the UK did very good forecasting IRMA IINM. It was the first to show it hitting Cuba long before any other, but had it making full landfall, so it wasn't perfect. Of course as we all just learned, no model ever is.
Alexander the Gr8
Registered User
I feel for you Twabby, I was in Hong Kong and Macao two weeks ago, right after it got hit by a magnitude 10 typhoon. Hong Kong didn't suffer too much, but Macao was devastated. There were cars floating in the river, destroyed schools, trees were ripped off the ground and some roads were devastated. The winds were upwards of 100 mph, can't imagine what Irma did to the Caribbean islands and Florida.
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