OT: General OT Stuff (Infinity+3)(No Politics/Spoilers, see OP)

[usiel]

Anyone else here dealing with VW TDI recall? I have come to loathe Volkswagen with the white-hot heat of 1,000 suns. My very posh Touareg has turned out to be a major POS, and not only because it's a fraudulent gross polluter. The process has been relatively simple but it's 2 weeks before they can take the damned car back and meanwhile, I have to come out of pocket for the downpayment on a a replacement vehicle and briefly have 2 car loans.

And you know they're just going to take it and sell if for more than they're giving us in Saudi Arabia or some other place that doesn't care about vehicle emissions or air quality.

That sounds like a pain in the butt. How long have you had the Touareg? My last VW was a leased 2001 VR6 GTI (4 year). About to pick up an STI that should arrive this month but I did briefly consider the 2018 Golf R.

 

[Calicaps]

That sounds like a pain in the butt. How long have you had the Touareg? My last VW was a leased 2001 VR6 GTI (4 year). About to pick up an STI that should arrive this month but I did briefly consider the 2018 Golf R.

We bought it used in 2014. it's a 2010. In the nearly 3 years I've owned it, I've spent almost 8K on insane repairs and still owe almost that much on it as well. I realize this is a serious first-world complaint, but I had never borrowed money for a car before and I was so nervous about it and now here I am having to do it again.

Never again.

 

[hockeykicker]

Choo choo here it comes :/

 

[strungout]

They have no idea where its going.

 

[RandyHolt]

Yep, it's too far away to have any accuracy. The models do the best they can but their flaws are at times glaring e.g. gaining strength over land, insane record low pressure recordings etc. All the major cities on the east coast have been modeled for direct hits. Add Miami. The best forecasters can do is slowly dial in over time.

Florida is only 150 miles wide so it won't take much to miss it as it turns north, but damn if FL got split up the middle. 150 also means there is no where to hide from the wrath, short of heading north.

From American Weather

Since 1851, 32 hurricanes have passed within 100 miles of Irma's 8 pm position of 16.7°N 55.0°W. 13/32 or 41% made U.S. landfall and 7 of the 13 (54%) storms that made landfall made their first landfall in Florida. The majority of such hurricanes were major hurricanes at U.S. landfall.

The models have dominated in forecasting intensity thus far. I am reading we are getting Cat 5 numbers live out of the hurricane hunters.

Where it goes depends on troughs and ridges. click the gif to pause it.

 

[twabby]

Randy my understanding is that this is a fast mover at least compared to Harvey, correct?

That should at least reduce flooding due to rainfall alone but my understanding is also that the storm surge could cause catastrophic flooding in South Florida depending on where it hits simply because of how powerful the storm is and how low in elevation much of the Florida coast is.

I'll be paying close attention and will be evacuating Tampa if/when it is necessary. It might not be necessary depending on its track but either way I'm picking up some batteries, bug spray, water, and the most delicious canned foods and cookies I can find.

 

[g00n]

Stay safe, y'all.

 

[RandyHolt]

Randy my understanding is that this is a fast mover at least compared to Harvey, correct?

That should at least reduce flooding due to rainfall alone but my understanding is also that the storm surge could cause catastrophic flooding in South Florida depending on where it hits simply because of how powerful the storm is and how low in elevation much of the Florida coast is.

I'll be paying close attention and will be evacuating Tampa if/when it is necessary. It might not be necessary depending on its track but either way I'm picking up some batteries, bug spray, water, and the most delicious canned foods and cookies I can find.

Harvey set a new standard in slow. Actually, from a respected poster i follow on american weather, don't expect Irma to be very fast as it churns northward between the trough and ridge... be it on land or water. A storms <fast> forward speed also causes increased wind damage. Surface winds just seen are extremely high, and Irma's headed to warm waters/more energy. Wow 196mph at flight level.

I am sure shores / flat areas prone to flooding etc will be as usual, but the wind field is quite vast and suspect the winds will do more severe damage than water (total guess).

Living on the coast of FLA, maybe a good plan is to book a refundable hotel that will give you an out. If you are in a high rise with safe parking for the car, I would likely ride it out. Otherwise, a good plan is to book somewhere you could get to late in the game (opposite coast, north or south), in addition to loading up on supplies.

I highly recommend (TO EVERYONE) a cheap LED lantern for area lighting. Get this one for $8 and or this one. On low I think they can run for 2 weeks straight. Also, a tiny clip-on (to a hat) LED light for hands free duty. Just say no to candles, which are far too dangerous in the era of cheap LED lighting. I have seen lit wicks riding in molten wax on that little piece of aluminum after glass candle holders have broken.

In the era of mobile phones are our lives, I also recommend a small solar panel to be able to charge your phone, instead of depending on your car. One that could hang out a window if needed and has a battery inside, which you connect to via USB. Solar has evolved a lot, and works even on cloudy days. The more panels to unfold, the better

 

[twabby]

Thanks for the info and tips RH.

 

[RandyHolt]

Sure thing - anything to help out a fellow cap fanatic.

I recommend following a message board if you are looking for the latest info. For instance I am seeing now talk of a more eastern track. You may need to register to see links/graphics. Poster Bob Chill always seems to know more than most but is not a MET.

Check out the shadow within the eyewall - more like eye WALL.

 

[twabby]

Sure thing - anything to help out a fellow cap fanatic.

I recommend following a message board if you are looking for the latest info. For instance I am seeing now talk of a more eastern track. You may need to register to see links/graphics. Poster Bob Chill always seems to know more than most but is not a MET.

Check out the shadow within the eyewall - more like eye WALL.

I'll be following these threads for sure. That is an impressive video of the storm.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Nature is incredible.

 

[twabby]

Just checked my local grocery stores and Walmart and they are all out of water and started running low on canned goods. Picked up what I could.

The sad thing is that I don't really see a viable track where somewhere doesn't get devastated.

 

[RandyHolt]

Order some emergency supplies from Amazon, perhaps.

Head to american weather's main board to get max discussions in the Tropical section, or you can head to your local regional forum for perhaps the most pertinent info specific to your locale. You may see a small bias from posters favoring the model that hits their locale the hardest, but maybe not this time. This storm is compact but very powerful, definitely one of the stronger ever modeled.

If it were hitting land today, it's equivalent to an EF4 tornado. Only, 25-50 miles wide.

Intense!

 

[twabby]

After hours of personal research I have new respect for meteorologists. It's amazing how tiny little perturbations in the region can drastically alter a hurricane's path, yet they are still very accurate in predicting hurricanes days out. If anyone ever needs a primer on chaos theory, weather is a perfect example of chaos in action.

 

[hockeykicker]

im just hoping it keeps shifting east and right out into the ocean

and who the heck knows with jose which is about to become a hurricane too, right now its also heading right for us

 

[strungout]

Hurricanes are beautiful...from a far. Man that radar is mesmerizing.

 

[twabby]

The latest trends and models put the storm farther east than before. That would be fortunate for us Gulf Coasters, but maybe not so good for Miami and SE Florida unless it goes into the Atlantic quite a bit (some models have it doing this). Also looks like the Carolinas could be hit quite hard on its current track.

Fortunately I was able to find some water this morning at Sams Club just in case it is necessary so I am ready to go. The interstates are already getting full of traffic from South Floridians trying to escape up north.

 

[RandyHolt]

At the time range of 4-5 days, the best NHC/models/forecasters consistently miss by their prediction by about 200 miles. That's the best they can do. Florida being only 175 miles wide, its a crapshoot.

The eyewall regenerates, or the eye wobbles a tiny bit, that effects the path down the road. The original forecast path was to tick north as it approached the Antilles from pretty much day 1 now 7 days ago. The eye staring down the Antilles was intense and sure enough at the last ****ing minute, it ticked north which should spare the bigger islands. Could.

I learned that temps inside the eye, vs at the eye wall - that spread is a proxy for the storms power. They generate a ton of heat. The temp difference was 14 degrees C - which is extreme.

I don't see much northern movement as Puerto Rico is in sight - a wobble WSW. A wobble = yikes. Vids on Twitter are worth a look.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-02-200-1-10

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Hurricanes are beautiful...from a far. Man that radar is mesmerizing.

Stunning, really. Check this one out.

 

[RandyHolt]

Turn up the volume for max effect

St Marten

 

[g00n]

Unreal. If debris contacts you at 185 mph that's like having Tiger Woods hit you with his driver.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

that's like having Tiger Woods hit you with his driver.

Eh, that might not hurt so bad these days.

 

[g00n]

Eh, that might not hurt so bad these days.

Oh it would hurt like hell but your teeth might slice well right.

 

[RandyHolt]

There has been a lot of eastern tracks largely salvaging florida, but the Euro which is one of the better models at this range whacks Miami before bouncing riding up the coast and finally off towards GA/SC and a 2nd landfall. This shows wind speeds at 30m off the ground. 100+ all over land.

Oh and the eyewall is likely reshaping which may mean bad news for San Juan folks hoping to miss the dreaded eyewall. I think it may still squeak by.