Yeah, i really think there's a good chance we'll get him purely because i'm not sure the other teams supposedly in the running will be willing to commit to the 4 year term he wants.
Personally, i think Vrbata will still absolutely be effective at 37, he plays a skill game that won't decline substantially in the next few years, i have no qualms with that at all.
Montreal doesn't seem willing to commit long term to older players and i'm not convinced he'd go back to Tampa. How Boston expects to sign him i have no idea; they can barely fit all their own guys under the cap, hence why Iginla left in the first place. They'd have to deal Krug and Smith to even consider adding Vrbata.
Really the only team i could potentially see is San Jose if he wanted to stay out west, but they're already deep at forward and seem to want to get younger and trade away their veterans.