Post-Game Talk: Free Agency 2023 "OH NO FOMO season"

[Porter Stoutheart]

Imagine...

2023-24
Forsberg ($8,5M) - Parssinen ($0.850833M) - Tomasino ($0.8633M)
Nyquist ($3.185M) - Glass ($2.5M) - Tarasenko ($6M)
Novak ($0.800M) - O'Reilly ($4.5M) - Evangelista ($0.7975M)
Sherwood ($0.775M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Trenin ($1.7M)
Smith ($0.775M)
Jankowski/McCarron ($0.775M)

Josi ($9.059M) - Pesce ($4.025M)
McDonagh ($6.75M) - Barrie ($4.5M)
Lauzon ($2M) - Schenn ($2.75M)
Carrier/Fabbro ($2.5M)

Saros ($5M)
Lankinen ($2M)

Ekholm retention: $0.250M
Johansen retention: $4M
Turris Buyout: $2M
Duchene Buyout: $2.5556M

TOTAL: $82.268223M
2023-24 NHL Cap: $83.5M
REMAINING CAP SPACE: $1.23177M

Assuming we traded one of Fabbro/Carrier in the package to get Pesce. (It's probably Fabbro, since he's RFA after this season while Carrier is UFA?). Or there would be $2M more remaining Cap space if we traded Barrie instead. Plus signed Tarasenko for 1/2/3x$6M.

TBH, I'm having a hard time objecting to this lineup. It would basically guarantee a playoff spot, wouldn't it? (As long as Brunette doesn't suck?)

If the trade/signing was:
Fabbro + 2nd for Pesce (and then I still wouldn't extend him right away)
Tarasenko for 1x$6M

... I might actually go for it? Tarasenko would take a little ice away from Tomasino and Evangelista probably, but they'd gain some extra playoff games too?

I don't think the trade for Pesce is particularly reasonable from Carolina's POV, though. But anyway, at that threshold I'd do it from ours.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

TBH, I'm having a hard time objecting to this lineup. It would basically guarantee a playoff spot, wouldn't it? (As long as Brunette doesn't suck?)

If the trade/signing was:
Fabbro + 2nd for Pesce (and then I still wouldn't extend him right away)
Tarasenko for 1x$6M

... I might actually go for it? Tarasenko would take a little ice away from Tomasino and Evangelista probably, but they'd gain some extra playoff games too?

I don't think the trade for Pesce is particularly reasonable from Carolina's POV, though. But anyway, at that threshold I'd do it from ours.

I agree. I honestly really like the idea of Pesce the more I think about it. I don't think Fabbro and Carrier are both here long term, and neither are returning big value at the deadline, so they seem like easy trade pieces to offer.

I think Josi Pesce has the makings of a really really strong top pair.

 

[herzausstein]

TBH, I'm having a hard time objecting to this lineup. It would basically guarantee a playoff spot, wouldn't it? (As long as Brunette doesn't suck?)

If the trade/signing was:
Fabbro + 2nd for Pesce (and then I still wouldn't extend him right away)
Tarasenko for 1x$6M

... I might actually go for it? Tarasenko would take a little ice away from Tomasino and Evangelista probably, but they'd gain some extra playoff games too?

I don't think the trade for Pesce is particularly reasonable from Carolina's POV, though. But anyway, at that threshold I'd do it from ours.

Tarasenko would give us legit scoring threats on each line assuming we spread things out. Still room for novak, parssinen, Evangelista, and tomasino as well.

Forsberg - ROR - Novak
Nyquist - glass - Evangelista
Tomasino - Parssinen - tarasenko
Trenin - sissons - whoever


RWs move up and down as play dictates.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I agree. I honestly really like the idea of Pesce the more I think about it. I don't think Fabbro and Carrier are both here long term, and neither are returning big value at the deadline, so they seem like easy trade pieces to offer.

I think Josi Pesce has the makings of a really really strong top pair.

Yeah, on Pesce I would be all for him, except it is just the question of trade cost + next contract. As a top pair D, I don't think Carolina needs to "settle" for Fabbro+2nd. Surely other teams would beat that? Pesce's contract this year is just $4.025M so he's more accessible for a wider range of teams. (Albeit with a 15-team NTC).

And then on his next contract, I'd be in no rush to extend him for 8x$7M or whatever it is he's looking for that has spooked Carolina. I'd take my chances on just letting him play out the 1 year before signing that deal. He's so good that Fabbro+2nd is probably worth it even if it just ended up being 1-year of Pesce? We do have other D coming if we ultimately couldn't retain him.

I do like Fabbro a lot (probably more than most people here do). Just, Pesce is truly "next level" good.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I'd like to see a Glass, Novak, and Nyquist line. Glass had very poor offensive metrics, but had elite level defensive numbers which is the exact opposite of Novak. I mean if we can't get a single player to represent both things, then maybe they can balance each other out. Nyquist still has some transition ability and is a smart player, which I think complement both Glass and Novak.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I'd like to see a Glass, Novak, and Nyquist line. Glass had very poor offensive metrics, but had elite level defensive numbers which is the exact opposite of Novak. I mean if we can't get a single player to represent both things, then maybe they can balance each other out. Nyquist still has some transition ability and is a smart player, which I think complement both Glass and Novak.

It's too soft IMO. I would go Novak-O'Reilly-Evangelista. I like Novak and Evangelista together. O'Reilly provides the defensive support far better than Glass would. And then you can even experiment with shifting Novak to center in some matchups. Ultimately, if Novak could learn to play C, that's better for us, and that combination would allow him the opportunity to at least occasionally try it out, while watching and learning.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

If you take away Tarasenko from the imaginary lineup, it gets harder to fill out 3 complete lines without inflating someone beyond where they should be.

Sure Kemell could be ready ENOUGH, but I'd honestly like to see him in Milwaukee for at least a bit longer. I think he's the closest of the group from the AHL. I don't love Sherwood. I think we are one 1 year vet winger contract away from having 3 solid scoring lines. It's as much about giving the kids options to succeed as it is about making the playoffs in my mind.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If you take away Tarasenko from the imaginary lineup, it gets harder to fill out 3 complete lines without inflating someone beyond where they should be.

Sure Kemell could be ready ENOUGH, but I'd honestly like to see him in Milwaukee for at least a bit longer. I think he's the closest of the group from the AHL. I don't love Sherwood. I think we are one 1 year vet winger contract away from having 3 solid scoring lines. It's as much about giving the kids options to succeed as it is about making the playoffs in my mind.

The one thing that I like about continuing to include Sherwood is: he busts his ass. Maybe he's not ultimately an NHL player. But he says to everybody else, look, bust your ass like me, you can play here.

 

[Seth Lake]

If you take away Tarasenko from the imaginary lineup, it gets harder to fill out 3 complete lines without inflating someone beyond where they should be.

Sure Kemell could be ready ENOUGH, but I'd honestly like to see him in Milwaukee for at least a bit longer. I think he's the closest of the group from the AHL. I don't love Sherwood. I think we are one 1 year vet winger contract away from having 3 solid scoring lines. It's as much about giving the kids options to succeed as it is about making the playoffs in my mind.

That’s why I’m actually very much for adding Filip Zadina on a short-term contract. No doubt he has talent. No doubt Brunette runs an offensive system.

Jack Han did an excellent breakdown of what Zadina needs to succeed at the NHL level in a Workshop for The Hockey Tactics Newsletter back last January and he sent it out via his email list again this week.

Reading it, he would be a great compliment for Forsberg and Parssinen on a top-six scoring line. If it works, great! He’s only 23. If not, then you release him.

Definitely worth a shot to bolster the offense while keeping an eye to the future.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

The one thing that I like about continuing to include Sherwood is: he busts his ass. Maybe he's not ultimately an NHL player. But he says to everybody else, look, bust your ass like me, you can play here.

His effort is undeniable, but I just seem him as a 13th forward. I like the idea of finding a cheap vet or a reclamation youngish guy like Zadina or Comtois.

Does Tatar have anything left on a short deal? He seems like a steady enough vet to hold a spot down while giving a little scoring.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

His effort is undeniable, but I just seem him as a 13th forward. I like the idea of finding a cheap vet or a reclamation youngish guy like Zadina or Comtois.

Does Tatar have anything left on a short deal? He seems like a steady enough vet to hold a spot down while giving a little scoring.

Well, I would not go after "reclamation projects" or dubious vets on bumping Sherwood. Then you are kind of beholden to extending an opportunity to a guy outside of the "meritocracy" approach? Somebody who never busted his ass for us?

I would bump Sherwood down if it really got us a clear upgrade. (Like I think Tarasenko would be), but.... not for like Zadina/Comtois/Tatar castaways? (highly subjective admittedly)

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Well, I would not go after "reclamation projects" or dubious vets on bumping Sherwood. Then you are kind of beholden to extending an opportunity to a guy outside of the "meritocracy" approach? Somebody who never busted his ass for us?

I would bump Sherwood down if it really got us a clear upgrade. (Like I think Tarasenko would be), but.... not for like Zadina/Comtois/Tatar castaways? (highly subjective admittedly)

Sherwood is 28 and coming off a career high of 13 points and 13ish minutes per game. I know he's younger, but I have a hard time seeing him as a better option than any of the 3 I mentioned or a half dozen other guys. Maybe his speed fits better with Burnettes style, but Tatar has been a very steady 20 and 20ish guy for his entire career. Again, I am just thinking of balancing lines with veteran as much as possible. If we can get Tarasenko on a short term deal I think it's a great fit, but Tatar on a 1 year 2m deal seems like a decent back up option. Caveat being we obviously don't know these players from locker room or leadership perspectives

 

[wmupreds]

It's too soft IMO. I would go Novak-O'Reilly-Evangelista. I like Novak and Evangelista together. O'Reilly provides the defensive support far better than Glass would. And then you can even experiment with shifting Novak to center in some matchups. Ultimately, if Novak could learn to play C, that's better for us, and that combination would allow him the opportunity to at least occasionally try it out, while watching and learning.

I wouldn't count on ROR being a better defensive center than Glass as of today.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I wouldn't count on ROR being a better defensive center than Glass as of today.

Glass was one of our best defensive centers last year. If he takes a step forward, he's really pacing for a shutdown Center style much more than offensive scoring center.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Sherwood is 28 and coming off a career high of 13 points and 13ish minutes per game. I know he's younger, but I have a hard time seeing him as a better option than any of the 3 I mentioned or a half dozen other guys. Maybe his speed fits better with Burnettes style, but Tatar has been a very steady 20 and 20ish guy for his entire career. Again, I am just thinking of balancing lines with veteran as much as possible. If we can get Tarasenko on a short term deal I think it's a great fit, but Tatar on a 1 year 2m deal seems like a decent back up option. Caveat being we obviously don't know these players from locker room or leadership perspectives

I just feel like if you are awarding a guy a roster spot based on... what... "draft pedigree"?... after their original teams passed on them... then... you are really stretching things. That is like saying we should have extended Cal Foote and kept him on the team?

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I just feel like if you are awarding a guy a roster spot based on... what... "draft pedigree"?... after their original teams passed on them... then... you are really stretching things. That is like saying we should have extended Cal Foote and kept him on the team?

I get it, there's a balance on things. I would say those teams aren't always right though. We passed on Tolvanen and so did a bunch of other teams. Sometimes you have to roll the dice on talent.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Glass was one of our best defensive centers last year. If he takes a step forward, he's really pacing for a shutdown Center style much more than offensive scoring center.

There are numbers and then there is the eye test. I don't see it. Glass is no "shutdown center". He's a soft-ish pass-first offensive center. If he happened to get icetime in 1 season when nobody cared to matchup against him, and his stats say he got good defensive metrics, well, that's nice, but it's not the whole story on who he is as a player.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

There are numbers and then there is the eye test. I don't see it. Glass is no "shutdown center". He's a soft-ish pass-first offensive center. If he happened to get icetime in 1 season when nobody cared to matchup against him, and his stats say he got good defensive metrics, well, that's nice, but it's not the whole story on who he is as a player.

He's not there yet, but I think his defensive game is much farther ahead than his offensive game at this stage.

 

[ShagDaddy]

There are numbers and then there is the eye test. I don't see it. Glass is no "shutdown center". He's a soft-ish pass-first offensive center. If he happened to get icetime in 1 season when nobody cared to matchup against him, and his stats say he got good defensive metrics, well, that's nice, but it's not the whole story on who he is as a player.

Glass was matching up with other teams top line at the end of the season. What “eye test” are you looking at?

 

[BigFatCat999]

Can I get a TLDR update on a Pesce trade?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Can I get a TLDR update on a Pesce trade?

TLDR: It's not happening.

 

[Kat Predator]

Historically, Glass was an offensive machine in the WHL and nearly a PPG guy in Milwaukee (the comeback from injury year). It hasn't clicked yet at the NHL level exactly, but I'm not sure what to take away from anyone that played last season. Everyone's offensive numbers were off. And Glass has been an unusual case in terms of (lack of) development, injuries, and ping ponging.

Yeah, I don't think he's a Benn or Getzlaf sort of guy, but that's ok. A centre that can put up > 0.6 PPG and be solid defensively is someone we cannot turn away exactly.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Can I get a TLDR update on a Pesce trade?

More rumblings out there from Carolinas side. Pesce deal might already be in place on principal, but it feels like it's only a deal Carolina makes if they get one of their other targets. Carolina fans think they can get Askarov back or another prospect and 1st for him. If either of those go out the door then I assume Trotz is locking him up on a new deal, but all that feels like optimism from Canes fans.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

More rumblings out there from Carolinas side. Pesce deal might already be in place on principal, but it feels like it's only a deal Carolina makes if they get one of their other targets. Carolina fans think they can get Askarov back or another prospect and 1st for him. If either of those go out the door then I assume Trotz is locking him up on a new deal, but all that feels like optimism from Canes fans.

Yeah, there is NO WAY I trade Askarov or our 1st for Pesce. He's a great player, but ultimately a "luxury item" to our team atm.

 

[ShagDaddy]

More rumblings out there from Carolinas side. Pesce deal might already be in place on principal, but it feels like it's only a deal Carolina makes if they get one of their other targets. Carolina fans think they can get Askarov back or another prospect and 1st for him. If either of those go out the door then I assume Trotz is locking him up on a new deal, but all that feels like optimism from Canes fans.

Canes fans aren’t very bright