Waived: Frans Nielsen on Waivers

[heyfolks]

Is there a salary requirement?

If you are asking if a cap floor exists, that answer is yes. $60.2M last season. Imagine it held flat for this truncated year of play.


2019-2020 NHL Salary Cap and Salary Floor

 

[heyfolks]

The only reasons not to buyout Nielsen after this season are A) Detroit decides they need him to fill one of the two expansion draft exposure slots for forwards, or B) Detroit doesn't want the extra 500K cap hit in 2022-23.

"A" is entirely plausible. The draft is a month after the buyout period. Other forwards in play are Namestnikov, who some think should be protected, and Erne, who is an RFA and would need to be re-signed. We also have a slew of UFAs of course, though I'm not sure anyone likes the idea of re-signing any of them just to fulfill expansion requirements when we have other options already.

"B" seems unlikely. Given the extremely high level of roster flexibility Yzerman has ensured for that season and beyond, and given that this team won't be a contender by then, I can't imagine that 500K cap hit having any meaningful impact.

A is possible, but this team has enough dead weight for that not to be a driving force in a decision. It's all about roster flexibility. This guy's been dead weight for years. Hell, I'd keep him around just to assure a lottery pick again in the 22 draft. OK, no I wouldn't.

 

[ShelbyZ]

I think with this and the DeKeyser waiving, Yzerman is trying to make it where his #13F, #14F, #7D and #8D are the ones filling the requirements for the taxi squad instead of filling it with multiple guys that are better off playing in GR (either for their development's sake, or the sake of keeping GR as competitive as possible).

He's basically already been doing it with Brome rotating from the TS to the main roster and back on an almost daily basis, and with DDK and Nielsen kind of being on the fringe at this point and having a 200% chance of clearing waivers, they were easy candidates to do the same.

As a bonus, the cap savings for the days when DDK, Nielsen and Brome are off the main roster will add up and give Yzerman a little more cushion if he wants to retain salaries and/or take on bad salaries from other teams in trades before the deadline.

As far as Nielsen and a potential buyout are concerned, I think given his contract (IE gets a $1.5M bonus on 7/1, and then is only owed $1.5M for the rest of the season) it's more likely he either finishes the contract on the roster, gets traded to a team looking to occupy some cap room and save real money, or he goes the (LT)IRetirement route.

This move is probably only to have more flexibility with the healthy scratches and taxi squad with Bertuzzi coming back from injury and Svechnikov getting cleared to play when his covid19-quarantine is over next week (there's a 7-day quarantine to players called up from AHL).

I thought Svechnikov was already practicing with the Red Wings?

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I think with this and the DeKeyser waiving, Yzerman is trying to make it where his #13F, #14F, #7D and #8D are the ones filling the requirements for the taxi squad instead of filling it with multiple guys that are better off playing in GR (either for their development's sake, or the sake of keeping GR as competitive as possible).

He's basically already been doing it with Brome rotating from the TS to the main roster and back on an almost daily basis, and with DDK and Nielsen kind of being on the fringe at this point and having a 200% chance of clearing waivers, they were easy candidates to do the same.

As a bonus, the cap savings for the days when DDK, Nielsen and Brome are off the main roster will add up and give Yzerman a little more cushion if he wants to retain salaries and/or take on bad salaries from other teams in trades before the deadline.

As far as Nielsen and a potential buyout are concerned, I think given his contract (IE gets a $1.5M bonus on 7/1, and then is only owed $1.5M for the rest of the season) it's more likely he either finishes the contract on the roster, gets traded to a team looking to occupy some cap room and save real money, or he goes the (LT)IRetirement route.

I thought Svechnikov was already practicing with the Red Wings?

Re: DDK/Frans on waivers/TS...Yep, exactly. Cap savings, also yes, exactly. I can see SY weaponizing our cap space through the end of this season. Even small cap dump(s) + (picks) for our spare parts/UFAs can bring additional assets.


For example, if Ryan can only net a mid-late 2nd, but we take on $2m CDump also...now that could upgrade to a late 1st from a contender. Now do that with all our other pieces (when feasible) & we could net a whole 1st-7th extra rd. of picks + addl. (2nd-6ths)? Then use the extra rd. of picks & buy upcoming prospects that haven't broken out yet/arrived in NHL. A lot would have to break correctly to pull all this off, but SY can do it.

 

[jaster]

If you are asking if a cap floor exists, that answer is yes. $60.2M last season. Imagine it held flat for this truncated year of play.


2019-2020 NHL Salary Cap and Salary Floor

I meant for the expansion draft exposure requirements. I'm not worried about the Wings reaching the cap floor, regardless of what happens to DDK and Nielsen after this season.

 

[Gniwder]

Re: DDK/Frans on waivers/TS...Yep, exactly. Cap savings, also yes, exactly. I can see SY weaponizing our cap space through the end of this season. Even small cap dump(s) + (picks) for our spare parts/UFAs can bring additional assets.


For example, if Ryan can only net a mid-late 2nd, but we take on $2m CDump also...now that could upgrade to a late 1st from a contender. Now do that with all our other pieces (when feasible) & we could net a whole 1st-7th extra rd. of picks + addl. (2nd-6ths)? Then use the extra rd. of picks & buy upcoming prospects that haven't broken out yet/arrived in NHL. A lot would have to break correctly to pull all this off, but SY can do it.

I don't see any teams trading away 1st rounders in a COVID no attendance playoff season. I'd expect teams would trade multiple 2nd+ picks instead.

You always get carried away with these cap dump deals netting big return.

 

[jaster]

A is possible, but this team has enough dead weight for that not to be a driving force in a decision. It's all about roster flexibility. This guy's been dead weight for years. Hell, I'd keep him around just to assure a lottery pick again in the 22 draft. OK, no I wouldn't.

They have a ton of dead weight, I agree. Most of it comes off the books after this season though, so not much of it applies to the 2 expansion draft exposure spots required for forwards. Right now, the only guys who qualify are Larkin, Mantha, Fabbri, Namestnikov, and Nielsen. The first 3 will be protected. Some people think Namestnikov as well. If they buyout Nielsen, they'll have to get a little creative to meet the exposure requirement.

 

[jaster]

I think with this and the DeKeyser waiving, Yzerman is trying to make it where his #13F, #14F, #7D and #8D are the ones filling the requirements for the taxi squad instead of filling it with multiple guys that are better off playing in GR (either for their development's sake, or the sake of keeping GR as competitive as possible).

He's basically already been doing it with Brome rotating from the TS to the main roster and back on an almost daily basis, and with DDK and Nielsen kind of being on the fringe at this point and having a 200% chance of clearing waivers, they were easy candidates to do the same.

As a bonus, the cap savings for the days when DDK, Nielsen and Brome are off the main roster will add up and give Yzerman a little more cushion if he wants to retain salaries and/or take on bad salaries from other teams in trades before the deadline.

That all seems pretty plausible. Managing cost this season does appear to be a high priority.

As far as Nielsen and a potential buyout are concerned, I think given his contract (IE gets a $1.5M bonus on 7/1, and then is only owed $1.5M for the rest of the season) it's more likely he either finishes the contract on the roster, gets traded to a team looking to occupy some cap room and save real money, or he goes the (LT)IRetirement route.

Buying him out saves a little cash for the org, and it frees up a roster spot. Those aren't tremendous benefits, but they are something. If we can trade him, I agree, go for it. That would be the best way to finish off that contract from the perspective of the org. LTIR seems unlikely since the guy is fully healthy.

 

[golffuul]

I meant for the expansion draft exposure requirements. I'm not worried about the Wings reaching the cap floor, regardless of what happens to DDK and Nielsen after this season.

Seattle has a requirement to be at least 60% of this year’s salary cap, so exposing players with higher cap hits, allows them to reach the floor safely. Also if we have all a group of exposed players that are all bad but don’t at least expose the ones with bad contracts, then we will be guaranteed to get stuck with them, versus Seattle possibly taking one off of our hands to meet their minimum salary requirement. So while we aren’t “obliged” to do it, we absolutely should be putting all of our unwanted contracts out there to protect our younger assets.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

He's also long gone. And he wasn't the only one who signed a complete dogshit contract in 2016. But hey, keep that hate boner up for him. Ken Holland did some fantastic things for the Red Wings in his career. He ended his career here in a really bad way.

His horrible contracts aren't long gone. They are still very much here. You are actually in a thread about one of his putrid contracts right now.....

 

[Dotter]

Sounds like Bert is ready and/or Svech's mandatory 7-day coronatine is up.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I don't see any teams trading away 1st rounders in a COVID no attendance playoff season. I'd expect teams would trade multiple 2nd+ picks instead.

You always get carried away with these cap dump deals netting big return.

I'm not saying a late 1st+small CDump for Ryan @ TDL is a foregone conclusion, but it's certainly in the ballpark. Assuming he scores at ~.5ppg or better, he's likely worth a late 2nd. Now add a $1-3m CD from X trade partner & Bingo, Bango! A late 1st for DET.


CURRENT CAP SPACE

: $14,215,104
DEADLINE CAP SPACE

: $42,098,577

Now assume (0-50% retention) + take on $1-4m CDump (ending in '21) for:

2nd - Bernier? (I'd keep him for stability & resign 1yr). (Merrill & Stech)-I'd keep both...stability & they've performed well. Resign Merrill after EDraft.

possibly LGD?

3rd- Flip, Nemeth?

4th- Helm, Djoos?

5th-Staal, DDK?

6th-Erne, Brome?

7th-Gagner, Nielsen?

With upto 50% retention + CapDump is Huge, Yuuugggeee for playoff teams.

 

[jaster]

Seattle has a requirement to be at least 60% of this year’s salary cap, so exposing players with higher cap hits, allows them to reach the floor safely. Also if we have all a group of exposed players that are all bad but don’t at least expose the ones with bad contracts, then we will be guaranteed to get stuck with them, versus Seattle possibly taking one off of our hands to meet their minimum salary requirement. So while we aren’t “obliged” to do it, we absolutely should be putting all of our unwanted contracts out there to protect our younger assets.

Well, yes, I do agree. But not sure I see what Seattle's requirements have to do with Detroit's decisions on who they expose. That's Seattle's problem. We should, first, be protecting who we want to protect, and second (the part I'm talking about) make sure we have properly managed the exposure requirement. Not doing so would likely result in having to expose a player we don't want to expose.

I believe the numbers below have been modified due to the shortened season, but either way, you can see where Detroit stands on CapFriendly: Seattle Expansion Draft Simulator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Minimum Exposure Requirements

Teams must expose a minimum number of players that meet the following criteria for selection in the upcoming Expansion Draft:

Position	#	Criteria
Forwards	2	under contract in 2021-22, AND played in 40 or more NHL games last season, OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the last two seasons
Defense	1	under contract in 2021-22, AND played in 40 or more NHL games last season, OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the last two seasons
Goalies	1	under contract in 2021-22, OR who’s contract is expiring & is an RFA in 2020-21

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[golffuul]

Well, yes, I do agree. But not sure I see what Seattle's requirements have to do with Detroit's decisions on who they expose. That's Seattle's problem. We should, first, be protecting who we want to protect, and second (the part I'm talking about) make sure we have properly managed the exposure requirement. Not doing so would likely result in having to expose a player we don't want to expose.

I believe the numbers below have been modified due to the shortened season, but either way, you can see where Detroit stands on CapFriendly: Seattle Expansion Draft Simulator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Minimum Exposure Requirements

Teams must expose a minimum number of players that meet the following criteria for selection in the upcoming Expansion Draft:

Position	#	Criteria
Forwards	2	under contract in 2021-22, AND played in 40 or more NHL games last season, OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the last two seasons
Defense	1	under contract in 2021-22, AND played in 40 or more NHL games last season, OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the last two seasons
Goalies	1	under contract in 2021-22, OR who’s contract is expiring & is an RFA in 2020-21

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yeah...I just figure the more lame duck contracts we put up, so we can protect folks like Lindstrom, that we would get the desired effect of losing one of our lame duck contracts

 

[jaster]

Yeah...I just figure the more lame duck contracts we put up, so we can protect folks like Lindstrom, that we would get the desired effect of losing one of our lame duck contracts

Totally. I think like with Vegas, though, Seattle will manage to avoid the contracts we'd like to see them draft. They do have the option of drafting one of our free agents too, so it's possible they don't take any of our contracts off our hands.

 

[golffuul]

Totally. I think like with Vegas, though, Seattle will manage to avoid the contracts we'd like to see them draft. They do have the option of drafting one of our free agents too, so it's possible they don't take any of our contracts off our hands.

Totally agree. Just behooves us to not give them any good options.

 

[Retire91]

Glad these players with 5 million dollar albatross contracts are starting to get the treatment they deserve.

 

[PullHard]

But it's not a moneysaving thing, though. It's the other way around. Every time they play a two-way contract instead of Nielsen it costs them a bit. They have to pay Nielsen the same and he weighs the same on the cap whether he is playing, healthy scratch, taxi squad or in AHL. It doesn't matter - the Nielsen cost is the same everywhere.

If they pick up Hirose, Svechnikov, Smith or whomever on a two way contract from the taxi squad they have to pay both this player and Nielsen their NHL salary. That is why they keep sending these players with two way contracts to the taxi squad and back in between games.

This move is probably only to have more flexibility with the healthy scratches and taxi squad with Bertuzzi coming back from injury and Svechnikov getting cleared to play when his covid19-quarantine is over next week (there's a 7-day quarantine to players called up from AHL).

I agree with the premise of your post but just wanted to check in regarding the highlighted bit

You realize that there are some cap savings once a player passes through waivers, yes?

The money part is absolutely true, but in terms of managing the cap, there are reasons to waive a player for some room to open up

 

[Gniwder]

Seattle has a requirement to be at least 60% of this year’s salary cap, so exposing players with higher cap hits, allows them to reach the floor safely. Also if we have all a group of exposed players that are all bad but don’t at least expose the ones with bad contracts, then we will be guaranteed to get stuck with them, versus Seattle possibly taking one off of our hands to meet their minimum salary requirement. So while we aren’t “obliged” to do it, we absolutely should be putting all of our unwanted contracts out there to protect our younger assets.

They're going to hit the floor pretty easily, through TBL. Tampa is going to expose a high value contract that is actually worth taking. They could also waive TJ again, and Seattle would claim him if they did. On top of that, they could draft a backup level goalie and then trade for MAF straight up. LV would do that trade for cap space.

With so many teams up against the cap, they have all kinds of deals they can make, just like LV did with MAF (the original deal).

I'm not saying a late 1st+small CDump for Ryan @ TDL is a foregone conclusion, but it's certainly in the ballpark. Assuming he scores at ~.5ppg or better, he's likely worth a late 2nd. Now add a $1-3m CD from X trade partner & Bingo, Bango! A late 1st for DET.


CURRENT CAP SPACE

: $14,215,104
DEADLINE CAP SPACE

: $42,098,577

Now assume (0-50% retention) + take on $1-4m CDump (ending in '21) for:

2nd - Bernier? (I'd keep him for stability & resign 1yr). (Merrill & Stech)-I'd keep both...stability & they've performed well. Resign Merrill after EDraft.

possibly LGD?

3rd- Flip

4th- Helm, Djoos?

5th-Staal, DDK?

6th-Erne, Brome?

7th-Nielsen?

With upto 50% retention + CapDump is Huge, Yuuugggeee for playoff teams.

Djoos, Erne, and Brome aren't getting traded they're all RFA. Stech is signed for next season. Flip, Helm, Staal, DDK, Gagner, and Nielsen have negative trade value, even with retention. That might change if they start lighting it up in the next 10 games, but I doubt that happens.

Ryan, Bernier, Nemeth, Merrill, and LGD are the top candidates. Someone might want Helm, probably Holland, lol.

I don't see a 1st in there at all even if the team did take a cap dump, because Chris isn't going to take any big dumps (lol). Certainly not any contracts that don't expire this season.

Your best hope for a late first is Holland trading down. They've traded away their 2nd, 3rd, and 5th round picks so you know it's his MO to trade the 1st for 2 seconds or a second and third.

You realize that there are some cap savings once a player passes through waivers, yes?

They don't save cap space until the player is re-assigned to either the taxi squad or AHL. Nielsen is actually still on the roster. Also, it's $1.075M pro-rated cap space. (I calculated that off DDK's cap hit since I wasn't sure if that number went up.)

Detroit Red Wings - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Gniwder]

Totally. I think like with Vegas, though, Seattle will manage to avoid the contracts we'd like to see them draft. They do have the option of drafting one of our free agents too, so it's possible they don't take any of our contracts off our hands.

Or they can opt for a RFA on a two way contract to beef up their AHL team. Hirose, Cholo, Turgeon, Hicketts, etc. Keep in mind their AHL affiliate is new too.

I think they pick Smith if he's exposed, and if he's not then one of the defensemen, Cholo, Djoos, Lindstrom or Stecher. Not sure which one the team will expose yet.

 

[MBH]

Does this mean the Wings take his "A" away? Maybe give it to someone else?

 

[Gniwder]

Does this mean the Wings take his "A" away? Maybe give it to someone else?

He gets to be the taxi squad captain.

 

[jaster]

Or they can opt for a RFA on a two way contract to beef up their AHL team. Hirose, Cholo, Turgeon, Hicketts, etc. Keep in mind their AHL affiliate is new too.

I think they pick Smith if he's exposed, and if he's not then one of the defensemen, Cholo, Djoos, Lindstrom or Stecher. Not sure which one the team will expose yet.

After Larkin, Bert, Mantha, Fabbri, and Rasmussen, there are two protection spots left for forwards, and I won't pretend to know who they go to, but I suspect Smith gets one of them.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

After Larkin, Bert, Mantha, Fabbri, and Rasmussen, there are two protection spots left for forwards, and I won't pretend to know who they go to, but I suspect Smith gets one of them.

I'm guessing Namestnikov (C depth/defensively responsible) & Smitty.

 

[jaster]

I'm guessing Namestnikov (C depth/defensively responsible) & Smitty.

It's possible. I think the 3 leading candidates to fulfill the exposure spots are Namestnikov, Nielsen, and Erne. And if I'm allowed to keep one of those, it's definitely Namestnikov.

Will also be interesting to see what happens with Ryan and LFG. Those are the two "old guys" I'd consider bringing back. But if they are UFAs when the expansion draft happens, and they get picked, they are under no obligation to go to Seattle. They can still re-sign with Detroit if they wanted to (they might not, I have no idea).