Proposal: Following the Karlsson Rumors

[Agent Zub]

If somehow Melnyk leaves I'd be 100 percent more confident about Karlsson wanting to stay.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

I'm sure he was referring to a verbal agreement. A "handshake deal", so to speak.

Basically, the same kind of agreement teams and players used to make in UFA when you would have guys sign complicated multi-million dollar contracts at 12:01 on July 1st, knowing that they technically weren't allowed to even be talking 90 seconds before the deal was signed.

The only NHL team that can talk contract extension with Karlsson, between July 1st this year, and July 1st next year, is the Senators ......

The draft is in June, so no one can legally make a "verbal agreement or Handshake deal" except the team (the Senators) he is still under contract to.

So a trade at the Draft is less likley than a trade after July 1st, IMHO.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Always bet on the house

Seriously a Vegas deal makes sense for the reasons you've laid out.... though Dorion will have a hard enough time explaining a Karlsson trade to the Ottawa fanbase; how on earth he'll justify getting a few mid tier picks back as compensation will be fascinating to watch.

He'll get more than a few mid tier picks.

Obviously speculation, I'd guess on top of whatever picks we'd get, we'd also get Shea Theodore as a piece in the deal, and then Cody Glass or whoever we view as their top prospect. Theodore would be our 2nd best D right now behind Karlsson if he was on our roster. At worst, he's an elite 2nd pairing guy long term, at best he's a top pairing RD.

With that said, there's no good trade for Erik Karlsson from the Sens perspective. That's why the price is so high. A home run fitting the 5-7 pieces ask (as in, I am not betting on us getting this much) would be something like Theodore+Tuch+Glass+2018 1st+2019 1st+2020 1st+2019 2nd for Karlsson+Ryan and even that wouldn't make up for losing Karlsson.

If this trade happens, one of two things will come out afterwards. Either that the Senators were given the impression a Karlsson extension was not going to happen. Or two, that Melnyk has decided to cut payroll which would make it less desirable to sign Karlsson to a market value deal when we could potentially try to sell him for 30 million dollars, a few young (and thus cheap) NHLers or near NHL ready prospects, and draft picks.

I don't think the timing of Dorion's extension is coincidental. I think the posters who speculated that the extension might be in part to give Dorion enough security before he's forced to drive a stake through the heart of the Senators fan base by doing the unfathomable action of trading away a top 3 NHL player in his prime.

 

[The Lewler]

You're close, it's actually because he made a long pass to Kucherov or Stamkos and everyone immediately thought "wow they are awesome together!" and that was that. A thread appeared on the main boards speculating Karlsson to Tampa about 5 minutes after that pass.

Pretty much.

It's the equivalent of watching the ultimate all star team when the NHL was at the Olympics , and going man.. how awesome would it be for these guys to all play together in the NHL!?!?

Yeah.. it would be awesome.. but the reason you are like OMG!1111!! is because it's impossible.

 

[armani]

EK won't be traded before the deadline short of overpayment.

The dust will settle this summer when both parties speak of an extension. If EK is traded, it will be in the summer after July 1.

 

[Tuna99]

It doesn't make sense for Melnyck to want to move EK. If he's selling, the franchise is worth more with a marketable athlete like EK, if he's not selling he needs EK to sell tickets.

Very Bizarra. But this is the Ottawa Senators after all. It's been a gong show since Eugene showed up.

 

[aragorn]

Why would Ottawa pay one player over $10 mil if the team is not projected to contend for a cup within the next few yrs or more? Especially given the declining attendance problem. Would it not make more sense from a business perspective to trade the asset for as many good assets as possible to add to the good assets they already have with the hope they are able to contend at some point in the future? They could reduce the payroll to it's minimum (cap floor) while they rebuild & move out all of the burdensome contracts? And replace them with the younger prospects & re-sign the good players that have a future with this team. Karlsson could be one of them but how long will it take & what kind of shape will he be in when the team is once again a cup contender?

Karlsson is not getting any younger & he continues to take a lot of hits especially in the playoffs. With every new injury his body breaks down a little more & it's quite possible we may never see the player he once was. But even if he does rebound & begins to play well again will the rest of the team around him be better or play better? Or how long will it take to get them to play at a level where they can help him contribute? How satisfied will he be playing with players making numerous rookie mistakes?

They may still miss the playoffs because they have so many other issues around this team that are a problem to them making the playoffs. They have a number of players making more money who are under performing & still have several yrs left on their contracts. They have started to address this issue with the Phaneuf trade & clearly need to move a few more contracts. But Karlsson could also be part of this problem & may need to be moved as well to give this team a fresh start. It's a big decision & I have no idea which way it will go.

 

[Alex1234]

Ottawa is still a super attractive option for EK - he's the Captain, it's a Canadian Team, high profile conference, Captain of a Canadian Team no less, sponsorship, and he's the man.

When Alfie left for Detroit he said he missed being the man. EK can still be the man here for a long time, and that's attractive.

Stamkos signed for $8.5. Money is a big component, but Ottawa has a lot to offer EK on top of money that he may or may not get in other NHL cities.

He will be traded
Unfortunatly or not

 

[armani]

Why would Ottawa pay one player over $10 mil if the team is not projected to contend for a cup within the next few yrs or more? Especially given the declining attendance problem. Would it not make more sense from a business perspective to trade the asset for as many good assets as possible to add to the good assets they already have with the hope they are able to contend at some point in the future? They could reduce the payroll to it's minimum (cap floor) while they rebuild & move out all of the burdensome contracts? And replace them with the younger prospects & re-sign the good players that have a future with this team. Karlsson could be one of them but how long will it take & what kind of shape will he be in when the team is once again a cup contender?

Karlsson is not getting any younger & he continues to take a lot of hits especially in the playoffs. With every new injury his body breaks down a little more & it's quite possible we may never see the player he once was. But even if he does rebound & begins to play well again will the rest of the team around him be better or play better? Or how long will it take to get them to play at a level where they can help him contribute? How satisfied will he be playing with players making numerous rookie mistakes?

They may still miss the playoffs because they have so many other issues around this team that are a problem to them making the playoffs. They have a number of players making more money who are under performing & still have several yrs left on their contracts. They have started to address this issue with the Phaneuf trade & clearly need to move a few more contracts. But Karlsson could also be part of this problem & may need to be moved as well to give this team a fresh start. It's a big decision & I have no idea which way it will go.

Because that one player is worth the ticket fans pay for - despite his poor form this season (major surgery, no training camp, adjustments, team suckage, etc.).

The fall out from an EK trade will be massive.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Why would Ottawa pay one player over $10 mil if the team is not projected to contend for a cup within the next few yrs or more? Especially given the declining attendance problem. Would it not make more sense from a business perspective to trade the asset for as many good assets as possible to add to the good assets they already have with the hope they are able to contend at some point in the future? They could reduce the payroll to it's minimum (cap floor) while they rebuild & move out all of the burdensome contracts? And replace them with the younger prospects & re-sign the good players that have a future with this team. Karlsson could be one of them but how long will it take & what kind of shape will he be in when the team is once again a cup contender?

Karlsson is not getting any younger & he continues to take a lot of hits especially in the playoffs. With every new injury his body breaks down a little more & it's quite possible we may never see the player he once was. But even if he does rebound & begins to play well again will the rest of the team around him be better or play better? Or how long will it take to get them to play at a level where they can help him contribute? How satisfied will he be playing with players making numerous rookie mistakes?

They may still miss the playoffs because they have so many other issues around this team that are a problem to them making the playoffs. They have a number of players making more money who are under performing & still have several yrs left on their contracts. They have started to address this issue with the Phaneuf trade & clearly need to move a few more contracts. But Karlsson could also be part of this problem & may need to be moved as well to give this team a fresh start. It's a big decision & I have no idea which way it will go.

Turnarounds can be fast. With a core of Karlsson, Duchene and Stone, development of Chabot, White and Brown, and a blue-chip, potential top-5 prospect coming our way, we can be back contending in 2 years.

Everyone looks at Toronto as an example of the "scorched earth" rebuild and holds it up as an example of the way to go, but for every Toronto, there's an Arizona or Florida. There's no guarantee we draft an elite player like Matthews, so trading the one we already have doesn't seem like the best move.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Because that one player is worth the ticket fans pay for - despite his poor form this season (major surgery, no training camp, adjustments, team suckage, etc.).

The fall out from an EK trade will be massive.

At least it'll be interesting.

Who wants to play choose your own adventure "Post Karlsson Trade Propaganda"

Turn to page 52 if you want to leak a report stating there were concerns Karlsson would never be the same, with thinly veiled shots about him being greedy and how the Senators have never been able to win with him.

Turn to page 76 if you want to leak that Karlsson wouldn't sign here because he thinks people from Ottawa stink.

 

[DaveMatthew]

At least it'll be interesting.

Who wants to play choose your own adventure "Post Karlsson Trade Propaganda"

Turn to page 52 if you want to leak a report stating there were concerns Karlsson would never be the same, with thinly veiled shots about him being greedy and how the Senators have never been able to win with him.

Turn to page 76 if you want to leak that Karlsson wouldn't sign here because he thinks people from Ottawa stink.

You can fully expect a Dan Gilbert style Comic-Sans letter from Eugene after Karlsson is traded.

 

[HSF]

EK won't be traded before the deadline short of overpayment.

The dust will settle this summer when both parties speak of an extension. If EK is traded, it will be in the summer after July 1.

yup cant wait till tuesday

 

[danielpalfredsson]

It doesn't make sense for Melnyck to want to move EK. If he's selling, the franchise is worth more with a marketable athlete like EK, if he's not selling he needs EK to sell tickets.

Very Bizarra. But this is the Ottawa Senators after all. It's been a gong show since Eugene showed up.

This is why it's plausible that Karlsson may have communicated an unwillingness to stay. It's the only way a Karlsson trade really makes a lot of sense.

But this is Eugene Melnyk we're talking about. The moment Karlsson crossed him with the response to Doughty, he put Melnyk in a position where Melnyk with the way his personality is probably felt that he had to win. Either he gets Karlsson to submit and take a team friendly discount, or he ships him out of town to punish Karlsson for crossing him and prove who really runs things in Ottawa.

It's a long shot, but it's also possible if there is some sort of sale of the team being closed, that new ownership is entirely on board with using Karlsson to re-stock this team with young talent and acquire 30 million dollars via shedding Ryan's contract. The narrative has been that having Karlsson, and having playoff success has done nothing to help attendance.

So if you're a businessman, I could see how it would be easy to justify spending 68 million or less on a team of young pesky players in order to sell 13k-15k tickets rather than spend 80 million on a playoff bubble team in order to sell a similar amount of tickets. With the parity and volatility of the NHL, I could see extra playoff revenue not being a big enough selling point to a new ownership that has that mentality since it isn't guaranteed. We already know that since around 2012 the Senators budget has not been based off needing playoffs to break even.

There's always been an assumption that new ownership would be a white knight who'd ride in, wave their magic wand, and allow the Sens to spend 80 million dollars on players. While I doubt things in the front office and else where will be as stripped down as they apparently are (self admittedly) under Melnyk, I don't think there is any guarantee that new ownership won't want to look at Ottawa as a team that needs a budget to operate.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

You can fully expect a Dan Gilbert style Comic-Sans letter from Eugene after Karlsson is traded.

"Erik screwed Erik"-Eugene Melnyk

 

[Silencio]

You can fully expect a Dan Gilbert style Comic-Sans letter from Eugene after Karlsson is traded.

This whole situation does remind me a bit of "The Decision" era Lebron and Cleveland.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Melnyk is definitely the biggest problem with this franchise but it was extremely dumb of Karlsson to open his yap and follow what Due Doughty said to the media. He should've kept to himself and prevent this circus. I mean what good does that type of comment bring when the team was struggling?

 

[bert]

It doesn't make sense for Melnyck to want to move EK. If he's selling, the franchise is worth more with a marketable athlete like EK, if he's not selling he needs EK to sell tickets.

Very Bizarra. But this is the Ottawa Senators after all. It's been a gong show since Eugene showed up.

Can we talk about how ridiculous it is that this is even happening.

Karlsson is 27 years old and in the absolute prime of his career and is the best player in Franchise History.

He just married an Ottawa girl and has a baby on the way. The Ottawa Senators just went to the conference finals and he has a year and a half left on his deal..... The senators have cap space and the cap is going up. Oh yes the organization has also been trading draft picks like its been going out of style and we don't have a first next season. AND WE ARE OPENLY TALKING ABOUT TRADING HIM. On the radio, in the papers, bloggers, twitter its everywhere. Our own media actually accepts this scenario.

Looking at this objectively there is something very wrong with the organization if this is happening. It defies all logic, so the real question should be why is this happening? Once we find out why that is happening we need a remedy, that's what the media and fans alike should be talking about. Not trading a top 5 player in the world in his prime.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Melnyk is definitely the biggest problem with this franchise but it was extremely dumb of Karlsson to open his yap and follow what Due Doughty said to the media. He should've kept to himself and prevent this circus. I mean what good does that type of comment bring when the team was struggling?

Most people won't admit this, but you're right.

Melnyk gets shit for being a WWF character, but not enough people called out Karlsson for that comment.

Nothing Karlsson said was wrong or offensive, but the idea that a 27 year old captain who has been entrenched in the hockey world all his life doesn't understand (or understands but doesn't care) about the possible ramifications of that comment at the time is surprising. We all make mistakes, but letting Due rope him into that was idiotic if Karlsson's goal at the time was to make things work here in Ottawa.

Anybody with half a brain in their head could have realized that given the type of situation we've got here in Ottawa, that what Karlsson said in response wasn't productive. He let the media and Due Doughty bait him.

 

[DanyHeatley]

i would pull the trigger on Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto and a 1st form EDM

 

[Micklebot]

Most people won't admit this, but you're right.

Melnyk gets **** for being a WWF character, but not enough people called out Karlsson for that comment.

Nothing Karlsson said was wrong or offensive, but the idea that a 27 year old captain who has been entrenched in the hockey world all his life doesn't understand (or understands but doesn't care) about the possible ramifications of that comment at the time is surprising. We all make mistakes, but letting Due rope him into that was idiotic if Karlsson's goal at the time was to make things work here in Ottawa.

Anybody with half a brain in their head could have realized that given the type of situation we've got here in Ottawa, that what Karlsson said in response wasn't productive. He let the media and Due Doughty bait him.

I think he took some crap for it, but people are willing to give him a mulligan because it's not the norm for him. He certainly should have known better, just like Alfie probably should never have said "probably not"

 

[coladin]

I don't think he gets traded unless he refuses to sign an extension. We will always lose the Erik Karlsson trade, that's for sure.

I don't think he thinks the sky is falling as most people do here. I think, internally, they have different discussions than fans do., He looks around the room and says a lot of good parts, and he is captain of a Canadian team. He has a legacy at stake if he is that kind of guy. I think he is. He is more small town guy than what he appears on the outside, from what I am told of people who hang with him.

I don't see him going anywhere because his cheques are always cashed, and that is ultimately what players care about!

 

[Alex1234]

This is why it's plausible that Karlsson may have communicated an unwillingness to stay. It's the only way a Karlsson trade really makes a lot of sense.

But this is Eugene Melnyk we're talking about. The moment Karlsson crossed him with the response to Doughty, he put Melnyk in a position where Melnyk with the way his personality is probably felt that he had to win. Either he gets Karlsson to submit and take a team friendly discount, or he ships him out of town to punish Karlsson for crossing him and prove who really runs things in Ottawa.

It's a long shot, but it's also possible if there is some sort of sale of the team being closed, that new ownership is entirely on board with using Karlsson to re-stock this team with young talent and acquire 30 million dollars via shedding Ryan's contract. The narrative has been that having Karlsson, and having playoff success has done nothing to help attendance.

So if you're a businessman, I could see how it would be easy to justify spending 68 million or less on a team of young pesky players in order to sell 13k-15k tickets rather than spend 80 million on a playoff bubble team in order to sell a similar amount of tickets. With the parity and volatility of the NHL, I could see extra playoff revenue not being a big enough selling point to a new ownership that has that mentality since it isn't guaranteed. We already know that since around 2012 the Senators budget has not been based off needing playoffs to break even.

There's always been an assumption that new ownership would be a white knight who'd ride in, wave their magic wand, and allow the Sens to spend 80 million dollars on players. While I doubt things in the front office and else where will be as stripped down as they apparently are (self admittedly) under Melnyk, I don't think there is any guarantee that new ownership won't want to look at Ottawa as a team that needs a budget to operate.

This
EM is the owner wether we like it or not
Its his money that he worked hard for
If someone has 6-700MM$ step to the plate
But for now he is the one making the decisions
And apparently he’s committed to restocking by trading EK

 

[danielpalfredsson]

This
EM is the owner wether we like it or not
Its his money that he worked hard for
If someone has 6-700MM$ step to the plate
But for now he is the one making the decisions
And apparently he’s committed to restocking by trading EK

That's not really what was meant to be taken away from my post, I would disagree about how just because it's his money and technically his team, fans aren't allowed to be critical of how he runs it or his actions.

He decided to buy a hockey team. A hockey team is a very tribalistic business. It's so tribalisitic that it provided him a platform to have his life saved via a fan feeling so strong about their connection to the team that they stepped up and donated a liver to him.

He can't expect to have it both ways. Benefit from the tribalism of this business, but not have to faith the wrath of that tribalism when there is a perception that he is not financially committed enough to the team and is otherwise holding it hostage by refusing to sell it. Given the type of business the NHL is, he deserves whatever criticism comes as a result of those actions.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

This whole situation does remind me a bit of "The Decision" era Lebron and Cleveland.

Which even Lebron has said was a huge mistake, that one was definitely on him if he had any desire not to be hated by the entire state of Ohio.