Speculation: Ferland and his future with the Canes

[dogbazinho]

The handling of Ferland is just an indication of what kind of owner we are now stuck with. I'm not really sure he is the answer to our problems but I'd like to know Dundon is committed to this team. At this point I'm still unsure. Thats why I feel a good return or a like player returned I think you could kick the can down the road. If he trades him for a 1st and a prospect, even tho that's the most likely return, I'd be worried what that says to the team and fans.

 

[Chan790]

Pay the man his money. Simple.

I know obviously he wants term and money. Personally, I'd rather go heavy on money and light on term. I think we can find a reasonable term if we swallow a hard salary. In today's world, I think Ferland wants $5.5M for 7 years. Why don't we offer $6.5M for 2 years? In the first option, which is on the high end, he makes $37.5M over 7 years. In the second option, he makes $13M ($24.5M less) but comes out of the contract at 29 and can sign another big deal.

If he proves to not be worth $6.5M over two years, that's fine, he takes a paycut or leaves after 2 years. No big cap repercussions. If he continues to play at a 25G 50P pace for 70 games a year with the same physicality, we can re-up him with a more term and a small paycut, or another 2 year deal. Or we could go crazy and do 1 year, $7.0 M.

I don't mean to suggest that everyone thinks like me...but as a parent of school-aged children, I would be prioritizing making sure my kids are taken care of for life, regardless of what happens.

Term on an NHL contract equals security and cash is king; I'd be prioritizing term and total money over opportunity and AAV.

You can offer $6.5AAV for 2 and the opportunity to cash in again at 29...but I wouldn't be surprised if the counter holds the line on 7 years and the AAV comes down to keep the total contract value high...like "okay. 7 years/36.75M (5.25AAV)" down from 7 years\38.5M. (5.5AAV)

 

[DougieSmash]

Or trade him if we are out of the race for 1st and good prospect, then bring him back in the offseason.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Or trade him if we are out of the race for 1st and good prospect, then bring him back in the offseason.

I have less than 0% confidence that this team could manage to do something like that

 

[RodTheBawd]

Fine, but you can't just handwave away numbers you don't like. Sample size is a thing, and so is recency bias.

When Dundon talks about taking emotion out of decisions, this is precisely the kind of emotion he's talking about.

You also can't handwave away things like progression. Martinook has consistently been a 10 goal 3rd/4th line grinder. Ferland has consistently improved every year and clearly brings more offense than Martinook. The eye test matches the numbers and expectations.

His response was dumb, but it doesn't mean he isn't right.

 

[SaskCanesFan]

Fine, but you can't just handwave away numbers you don't like. Sample size is a thing, and so is recency bias.

When Dundon talks about taking emotion out of decisions, this is precisely the kind of emotion he's talking about.

And I get trying to take emotions out on decision making. But sports are inherently emotional, there's no real reason to care about 10 people chasing around a black disc. It doesn't matter if we don't want it to. And if the team tries to spin letting go of Ferland because a career bottom 6er (who I do quite like) has similar numbers and should be fine on a top line, I will throw shit that I'm afraid to admit.

 

[TheBigKahuna]

Fine, but you can't just handwave away numbers you don't like. Sample size is a thing, and so is recency bias.

When Dundon talks about taking emotion out of decisions, this is precisely the kind of emotion he's talking about.

Yes, I can because the math isn't at all comparable. If you want to replace Ferland with Martinook, you're downgrading substantially. You can't dispute that. And Rask, don't make me laugh. Neither of those guys has the upside of Ferland. We've already seen Brindy experiment with moving Martinook up when Ferland was out. The results were not there.

Ferland is not a 7m dollar forward. But he's definitely in the 5m range. Martinook, simply is not, and probably never will be. Rask, doesn't warrant debate.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Cory Lavalette's got an article on the latest from Ferland. Some concerning thoughts.

Hurricanes have a pressing issue with Ferland’s contract – The North State Journal

The problem for the Hurricanes is Ferland is on the final year of his contract, earning a bargain $1.75 million this season. And at 26 years old, Ferland is poised to earn the biggest payday of his career.
The two sides mutually want to stay together.

“I’d like to stay here. I’d like to get a deal done,” Ferland said after Monday’s practice.

But, as often is the case, the sticking point is money.

While social media is plastered with “5 X 5!” comments, that’s clearly not enough to get a deal done.

From the article, it sounds like Ferland's looking for Kane/JVR money, while the Hurricanes are concerned signing a deal like that leaves them open to an Okposo/Ladd/Lucic situation.

Which they should be. This team can't afford to swing and miss a massive contract like that.

 

[MinJaBen]

Cory Lavalette's got an article on the latest from Ferland. Some concerning thoughts.

Hurricanes have a pressing issue with Ferland’s contract – The North State Journal



From the article, it sounds like Ferland's looking for Kane/JVR money, while the Hurricanes are concerned signing a deal like that leaves them open to an Okposo/Ladd/Lucic situation.

Which they should be. This team can't afford to swing and miss a massive contract like that.

If he wants 7x$7M....

See if we can get Puljujarvi and the Oilers 1st from Chiarelli for him and maybe a small add.

 

[AeroFishOne]

If he wants 7x$7M....

See if we can get Puljujarvi and the Oilers 1st from Chiarelli for him and maybe a small add.

Like Ferland but yeah not so much at 7x7

 

[Joe McGrath]

f***s sake his career high in points is 41.

He has 114 points in his CAREER. In his entire f***ing career.

7 x 7 my f***ing ass.

 

[JacquesCousteau]

I'm as big an advocate for re-signing Ferland as anyone, but if he wants more than Wilson that's a tough pill to swallow. Unfortunately, for us, if he tests free agency he will undoubtedly get close to his full ask. There are a lot of bad UFA contracts out there, and a lot of GMs who are willing and able to eat the last few years of the deal when production falls off.

 

[Chrispy]

****s sake his career high in points is 41.

He has 114 points in his CAREER. In his entire ****ing career.

7 x 7 my ****ing ass.

I don't blame Ferland for going for it. He's made just under $7M in salary in his professional career to date.

This is his shot at the big contract. And I think someone will give him this.

I also agree if that's what he's looking for, I don't think signing that deal will be a good decision.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I don't blame Ferland for going for it. He's made just under $7M in salary in his professional career to date.

This is his shot at the big contract. And I think someone will give him this.

I also agree if that's what he's looking for, I don't think signing that deal will be a good decision.

Why would anyone give him that though? If we only look at the last two years he is 93rd in goals and 153rd in points.

What about that translates into almost $50 million? If that’s what Ferland gets what is Skinner going get, $10? $12?

 

[GoldiFox]

I don’t see anything in that article that makes me believe Ferland is the problem rather than Carolina.

Why is it assumed that Ferland is asking for $7 million instead of assuming that the Canes are the ones refusing to offer a deal similar to Tom Wilson? Because twitter users are tweeting?

Given how cheap Dundon has already been with Hanifin, Lindholm, Darling, and Skinner why are would I take their side on this? Isn’t it more likely that the Canes are being cheap than Ferland being greedy based on every indicator we have?

 

[Chrispy]

Why would anyone give him that though? If we only look at the last two years he is 93rd in goals and 153rd in points.

What about that translates into almost $50 million? If that’s what Ferland gets what is Skinner going get, $10? $12?

He's 26, it will be July 1st.

There don't need to be any other reasons for a stupid contract.

 

[Svechnicanes]

Hoping this is what people previously referred to as "far apart" and is just a normal negotiation tactic... If he opens with 7x7 and we offer 5 years at 4 million then yeah we are miles apart but if we can agree to a 5x5 or a 5x5.5 then I'd be very happy
Less happy with 6 million and a no go at 6.5 or 7 imo.

 

[Joe McGrath]

He's 26, it will be July 1st.

There don't need to be any other reasons for a stupid contract.

Is there a precedent for it though? Has a team ever given a UFA forward that much money for proving so little at this level?

 

[GoldiFox]

Is there a precedent for it though? Has a team ever given a UFA forward that much money for proving so little at this level?

No. Lucic, Kane, and JVR all had 300+ more games and hundreds of more points.

Tom Wilson had played ~100 more games by his extension that Ferland will have. He’s as close to a perfect comparable as one could get except for the fact that he had 2 years of RFA left.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I don’t see anything in that article that makes me believe Ferland is the problem rather than Carolina.

Why is it assumed that Ferland is asking for $7 million instead of assuming that the Canes are the ones refusing to offer a deal similar to Tom Wilson? Because twitter users are tweeting?

Given how cheap Dundon has already been with Hanifin, Lindholm, Darling, and Skinner why are would I take their side on this? Isn’t it more likely that the Canes are being cheap than Ferland being greedy based on every indicator we have?

It sounds like Ferland's asking for more than we're willing to offer, and more than what could be considered reasonable.

 

[GoldiFox]

It sounds like Ferland's asking for more than we're willing to offer, and more than what could be considered reasonable.

Again this sounds more like Cory’s speculation than anything solid. His statement doesn’t mean much. What if the ask was 5 years x $5.5 million? Is he not clear it gets done then? Doesn’t mean that Ferland is demanding $7 million as posters here seem to be assuming.

 

[dogbazinho]

Like Hanifin and Lindholm we'll see what he gets if he signs elsewhere.

 

[AeroFishOne]

I don’t see anything in that article that makes me believe Ferland is the problem rather than Carolina.

Why is it assumed that Ferland is asking for $7 million instead of assuming that the Canes are the ones refusing to offer a deal similar to Tom Wilson? Because twitter users are tweeting?

Given how cheap Dundon has already been with Hanifin, Lindholm, Darling, and Skinner why are would I take their side on this? Isn’t it more likely that the Canes are being cheap than Ferland being greedy based on every indicator we have?

Disagree about Hanifan and Lindholm at this point and what the F are you talking about with Darling. He played liked crap and is getting buried in AHL at full price, can’t buy out until the end of the year.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Again this sounds more like Cory’s speculation than anything solid. His statement doesn’t mean much. What if the ask was 5 years x $5.5 million? Is he not clear it gets done then? Doesn’t mean that Ferland is demanding $7 million as posters here seem to be assuming.

 

[GoldiFox]

Disagree about Hanifan and Lindholm at this point and what the F are you talking about with Darling. He played liked crap and is getting buried in AHL at full price, can’t buy out until the end of the year.

Dundon absolutely could have bought out Darling last offseason. We talked about it nearly every day on this board. Instead the Canes threw away more games and future plan banking on a miracle recovery which (surprisingly) never materialized. Canes “starter” going into the year is now the AHL backup and the two current NHL goalies are both pending UFAs. That is a mess created by being cheap to begin with.